Perhaps 10 years ago, I was playing $10 NSU Deuces Wild alongside “John,” a player I had known for quite a while. He was dealt four aces with a three, and complained bitterly, saying he’s playing the wrong game. He’d been playing $10 Double Double Bonus (DDB) not long before and that hand would have been worth $20,000. Playing NSU, it was worth $200, or maybe $800 if he could pick up a deuce after he threw away the three.
I commented that he’s lucky he wasn’t imagining he was playing Triple Double Bonus (TDB). In that game, he would have missed out on $40,000 instead of the measly $20,000 he missed out on while speculating his payout playing DDB.
He was not amused.
Later he ended up with AKQ of spades alongside two deuces. That was worth $1,250 in this game and wouldn’t have been worth anything had he been playing DDB or TDB. “Maybe the video poker gods are trying to make it up to you,” I teased.
John didn’t enjoy my mocking him, but he took it in stride. We had a relationship in which teasing the other was par for the course.
John was not a professional player. He had basic strategy down pretty well and didn’t bother with the fine points. He often played games returning less than 99% even if he played perfectly, which he didn’t. He owned his own business and even if he lost $50,000 or $100,000 a year gambling, it didn’t make a lot of difference to his lifestyle.
He believed that he was the unluckiest video poker player ever and periodically found evidence to support this belief. If he was playing Hundred Play and drew to three of a kind, he knew connecting on four separate quads was the average result.
From here, it was a small step to believe he “deserved” four quads and whenever he ended up with three quads or fewer, he felt he was being cheated. Even when he drew five or more quads from this starting position, he felt it was a case of “too little too late.” In his mind, these occasions barely made a dent in his overall “unluckiness.”
These beliefs took the sting out if his losing sessions. After all, in his mind it wasn’t his fault! He was mostly playing correctly, and the machines weren’t cooperating.
While he had attended some of my classes, he didn’t want me correcting him while we were playing. Which was perfectly fine with me. He believed my strategies were developed for people with average luck, or better than average luck.
He was correct, of course. The strategies I use and sell assume that every unseen card has an equal probability of being drawn next. The strategies also assume that all players have average luck over a long enough time period. We all have lucky days and unlucky days. Just because a person believes he or she is luckier or unluckier than average doesn’t make it so.
Convincing John of this was impossible, of course. His theories allowed him to continue to lose year after year and still believe it wasn’t his fault.
So, our teasing was mostly lighthearted. He always claimed that I was a “luck sack.” I’d counter with “luck favors the prepared.” While neither of us ever convinced the other, we remained friendly for decades.
If you believe in luck instead of
Mathematics you are only
Fooling yourself video poker is
All Mathematics
If you believe in luck instead of
Mathematics you are only
Fooling yourself video poker is
All Mathematics
Even if you understand the mathematics behind it, you’ll still lose if you don’t play with an edge. Gaining an edge is far more important than relying on luck in the long run.
The dealt 4AWK occurs once in every 216,580 hands, which is about hitting 415 royals with deuces on NSU. But, I feel bad when I’m dealt a deuce royal with 3 royal cards but have to discard the deuces to go for a royal in non-deuces games.
Sorry, but contrary to what Robert Gilman said (and said TWICE, for some reason), video poker is NOT all mathematics, just like it is not all luck. VP is a mix of math and luck. The part that is math is the strategy: what you should hold on any given deal because it’s the most advantageous hold, and ignoring deciding on a hold by placing what you wish for higher than what the numbers say. The part that is luck is the cards given to you by the machine (or, you could say by the RNG): both the cards that you are dealt and the cards that you draw after you decide on your hold from the deal. If you are dealt a royal flush, that didn’t happen because you know the strategy for the game “cold”; you didn’t have ANYTHING to do with those 5 cards being dealt (except for pressing the DEAL button, just like a dumb player presses DEAL); their being dealt WAS totally luck. Your strategy knowledge only comes into play AFTER the deal: It tells you what to hold. But then, what cards the machine deals you on the draw is again random luck; neither you nor “the math” MAKES or INFLUENCES the machine (or the RNG) to deal you any certain cards. If knowledgeable you and ignorant Joe Blow both hold the AKQ of Hearts while throwing away the 5 of Clubs and the 2 of Spades, you both will have the same chance of drawing to a royal flush, or to a straight flush, or to a mere flush; your superior knowledge will NOT make you more likely to get any of those results. Whether the 2 “draw” cards complete one of those 3 paying hands is entirely luck, not skill, and not due to knowledge; the odds are exactly the same for you as for the ignorant guy.
Al, I couldn’t agree with you more. You worded your thoughts perfectly. I’ve been playing for many years now and have gotten way more royals than I deserved. I would argue that other factors are also involved besides strategy and luck.
“Whether the 2 “draw” cards complete one of those 3 paying hands is entirely luck, not skill, and not due to knowledge; the odds are exactly the same for you as for the ignorant guy.”
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I will use this as an example in your argument. What you’ve discussed is known as short-term variance.
Hitting a royal flush during a session is an example of short-term variance. The positive variance you refer to is essentially the luck involved. However, when you consider the long term, luck becomes insignificant.
The long-term result is the sum of many short-term sessions. Each session yields a score. Hitting a royal flush in a session is a matter of luck, while in many sessions where you don’t hit, it’s simply bad luck. So, what’s the point of caring about luck if you consider the long term? You get what you are supposed to get. If the conditions you are playing under are negative, you will lose regardless of your luck.
The dealt royal returns 0.12% for the standard VP game. If you can get 0.2% from slot club, why do you care if you get it or not?
I agree with AL.
On a recent visit to AC I hit 3 AAAA w/ kicker in just over an hour. I was playing $1 denom so had three handpays of $2,000.
That’s what I call luck! I’m a decent player, but certainly not an expert. I continue to work on my game so I can be as good as I can.
On the flip side, I have not hit a royal in over 2years!
“On a recent visit to AC I hit 3 AAAA w/ kicker in just over an hour. ”
It’s called short-term variance. Will you quit playing? If not, you’ll eventually lose it back if you have no edge, and the luck you had simply means nothing.
In the long run, you’re essentially paying for your entertainment, and it won’t contribute to your wealth at all.
I so much enjoy reading all your comments. My wife and I do Vegas twice a year and have hit 9 royals in 15 years or more. It’s our entertainment to sit next to each other and play our hands alternately.
Thanks again Bob Dancer for your wisdom and these columns.