I read an article in a poker publication some time ago. It was about a live poker player who recently spent a half-hour run “in the zone.” Apparently there were six major pots, and that writer won five. Then the writer was beaten two hands in a row, determined his streak was over, and left the game up $900.
In the article, the author was praising himself for recognizing when his streak was over. He was claiming a lot of skill for having the intelligence to leave the game at the point that he did.
I believe this is total hogwash! To be sure, I’m a video poker player. I claim no special knowledge of live poker. But I do know something about winning streaks and losing streaks, and I believe this man was claiming credit for a lot more knowledge than he possibly could have possessed.
How can this man know what the next half-hour will bring until he goes through it? The fact is — he can’t. This could have been the night where later he would say, “I won five out of six, lost three in a row, and then won five straight pots that were absolutely HUGE!” This could have been the night where later he would say, “I won five out of six and never won another pot all night.” Anybody who claims they know which one it will be before they go through it is talking nonsense. One of the things that makes gambling enjoyable (and frustrating) is that you don’t know how it will all turn out.
Choosing the right game to play is an important part of winning at gambling — whether we’re talking poker, video poker, blackjack or any other beatable game. But once you make this choice, you have to play the game to know whether this is one of the times that your small advantage pays off or this is one of the times that it doesn’t.
This author reminded me a lot of the video poker players who tell you something like, “I never give more than $10 to any machine. If I lose, I try another machine. Eventually I’ll find a machine that is paying off and when I do, watch out! That is the secret to my success!”
Right. Except that people who talk like that are NOT successful gamblers and nobody suggests that they write a regular advice column. Anybody who uses the last half-hour’s gambling results to predict their result in the next half-hour is grasping at straws. In video poker, the secret to doing well is identifying those machines where you have the long run advantage, doing what it takes to master the strategy of that game, and then sitting down and playing. The same secret works at blackjack, although you must also be concerned with being able to continue playing.
At live poker, I’m sure the secret is more elusive. It is far harder to know how strong your opponents are on any given day than it is to know the characteristics of a 9/6 Jacks or Better machine. And your own decision-making process is more vital at live poker than it is a video poker. At live poker you must decide how to play this hand this time. And changing your game periodically to prevent the other players from figuring you out is a necessary strategy in live poker and a stupid strategy in video poker.
If that author had argued that losing two hands in a row spoiled his concentration and so he decided to take a break, then I would have had no reason to object. Playing only when you are at your best is an important part of winning. This is one of the things that usually makes gambling different from playing other games.
At tennis, for example, the game must go on. If you are not on your game today and your opponent is (assuming you are relatively evenly matched), then you are going to lose. At gambling, if you are not on your game, YOU DON’T HAVE TO PLAY! Usually, the same opportunities will be available in a few hours. This is not always true, of course. If a progressive is at an all-time high, or a giving-away-the-store promotion is ending soon, or there are only a few machines where you have a big advantage and others are waiting to play, then the opportunity may not be as good later on. Or maybe 10x points has never happened before at this casino and it’s scheduled to go for three more hours. But usually none of these things are happening. Limiting your play to your best hours on your best days is money in the bank.