Last week, Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli hit town and gave a rundown of the major players in Sin City. His overall theses can be found at CDC Gaming Reports. Basically, it boiled down to Macao great, Las Vegas Strip excellent, Las Vegas locals very good and regional casinos a bit iffy. But he also looked at a number of operators in granular detail and that is what occupies us today.
Boyd Gaming expects little or no impact from the debut of Durango Resort. If there is any, it will be felt at Suncoast. The expected result was described as “competitive strategy changes,” as Boyd is confident of keeping its Suncoast customers. On the plus side, growth in the Las Vegas Valley is likely to redound to the benefit of Aliante Casino. Rival Station Casinos read the tea leaves right on this one—but 15 years prematurely. In light of Boyd’s heavy exposure—seven casinos—to the Gulf Coast, management allowed that they are “actively dissecting” the underperformance of Mississippi and Louisiana. For one thing, unrated play (which is soft) is higher in this region. Also, the relative poverty of these two states means that they’re where macroeconomic challenges will be felt first. In the Midwest, Blue Chip and Kansas Star have shaken off the impact of ‘historical horse racing’ machines. Belterra Resort, not so much. Boyd seems likelier to be a buyer than a seller these days, particularly if something digital complements its online assets.
Caesars Entertainment is riding high on its convention business, which is counting for 20% of room nights, higher even than management’s ideal (high teens) and way up from pre-Covid 14%. The pace of room revenue is exceeding 2022, as it banquet moolah. Even the normally slower-than-usual summer months are described as “solid,” as much so as February-April were. While the company was described as “firmly committed to debt reduction,” in the same breath it was said that Caesars was sniffing around M&A prospects, so there could go any savings. As for in-progress Caesars Danville, Santarelli thinks it “likely” CZR will turn right around once the place is finished and sell it to the Eastern Cherokee Tribe, retaining a management contract. We’ll skip Las Vegas Sands, now with 100% less ‘Las Vegas’ and move right along to …
MGM Resorts International‘s biggest worry is Fontainebleau, even though Santarelli rates its chances of opening in December as no better than “potentially.” While F-blue is not a direct competitor to Leo the Lion, “it has impacted their ability to execute some of its renovation and associated Strip capital expenditure programs, given the use of contractor labor on the project.” Even so, the Mandalay Bay convention center revamp is expected to finish by January. Bellagio will be management’s next focus, with all Spa Tower rooms to be renovated, occupied fully 25% of the company’s capex budget. New York-New York is currently getting a hotel makeover, with Aria and MGM Grand next in the queue. Executives said they have “garnered more confidence” that BetMGM is on the road to profitability. It’s already there in terms of Internet casinos, as sports betting remains a drag anchor. Overseas on the Internet, MGM “would like to acquire a platform with distribution, technology, and content.” Finally, the company would like to add another hotel tower to MGM Cotai in Macao.
Wynn Resorts could talk of nothing but Macao, unfortunately. Poor Sin City!
It looks as though Bally’s Entertainment may not be able to get into the sack with Donald Trump, but not for lack of hot, panting desire. Basically, Bally’s got too late into the game. It needs the New York City Parks Department to sign off on the land transfer of 17 acres of golf-course acreage adjoining a slum near Whitestone Bridge. The process takes 40 days and Bally’s has 42 to get its RFP into New York State. Although the Trump-loving New York Post tries to paint an image of bureaucratic inaction, 40 days is hardly an unreasonable length of time to process such a weighty application. The Parks Department is not to blame for Bally’s fire-aim-ready approach to Gotham. Also, the Trump Organization only controls the land for 12 more years, begging the question of what Bally’s will do when that felonious company’s term runs out. That’s a ‘yuge’ problem for Bally’s, which needs the site for 70 years in order to qualify for a casino license. (Do you get the feeling Soo Kim didn’t think this thing through?)
According to the Post, “The Parks Department confirmed that the concession at Ferry Point is not a lease, it is a license agreement to operate a public golf course—very different from leases that the city has entered into.” Also, converting parkland into non-park usage requires state-level legislation. Hmmm. Could it be possible Bally’s didn’t perform due diligence on this? So did New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, whose Citi Field casino plan has come a-cropper over the same issue. Ironically, New York City would lurve to call the wannabe-Bally’s site anything other than “Trump.” At least Bally’s has had the sense to develop a fallback option: Nine acres at Willets Point that are proximate to Citi Field and would be shovel-ready. But Bally’s still looks like a long shot, especially with Sands Nassau having lined up key official support this week.
Incidentally, it appears as though Bally’s hasty deal with the Oakland Athletics will be stymied by the resistance of the Nevada Lege, which isn’t forking over the kind of megabucks the A’s demand, putting the onus on Clark County to pony up the ransom. If so, it could spare Las Vegas from inheriting the one of the worst teams in baseball history.
Shreveport city fathers seem bent upon delivering a big ‘fuck you’ to casino workers. If some City Council members get their way, smoking would be reinstated at the city’s two casinos, health be damned. This would set a chilling precedent, as Shreveport would be the first U.S. municipality to backpedal a smoking ban. It would also undercut the momentum, however, nascent, towards smoke-free casinos in America’s gambling capitals. Activist groups like Tobacco Free Louisiana and the Louisiana Campaign for Tobacco-Free Living haven’t been taking this lying down. Said the leader of one, highlighting the environmental-racism angle, “it will specifically affect at least 75% of Black or African Americans working in the hospitality industry.” Indeed, why must casinos be ‘sacrifice zones’?
Said Councilwoman LeVette Fuller, “Based on the data, there’s only been a 3% difference between Bossier and Shreveport’s decline in attendance in revenues for casinos, that 3% could be attributed to just about anything, considering the turbulence that we’ve had since 2020.” That’s a very good point and one that casino executives would be making themselves did it not involve their beloved tobacco. If the City Council votes to bring back smoking, the offending members fully deserve to get the boot at the next election.
Fanatics‘ dubious business model for capturing OSB market share is coming unraveled before it could even ravel. The ‘buy sportswear, get a free bet’ gambit landed with a thud in Massachusetts, where they take probity seriously. Ditto Ohio. Fanatics’ idea was simple (or simple-minded): Buy an overpriced baseball cap, say, get an equivalent amount of promotional action. At least it makes more sense than Fanatics’ daffy idea of paying off winners with merchandise. Sports bettors want their money, not Oakland A’s gear. Some call this “unique and cost-effective” for Fanatics. We call it stupid and reckless.