Many of us are sick and tired of discussing the terrible events of October 1 and the speculation afterwards of what made this unhinged man do what he did. If that’s where you are and you want to skip this article, I won’t blame you.
Once it was discovered that Stephen Paddock played video poker, I started getting calls from a variety of news outlets. Although I didn’t get nearly as many calls as Anthony Curtis did, when something related to video poker makes the news, my name comes up as someone who might be able to offer some insight.
For each telephone interview, I started it off with the fact that I didn’t know the guy and had never heard his name until after he was dead. I don’t know if he was a winning player or not, but I have my doubts. And in my opinion, there is nothing inherent in the game of video poker that will create such a monster. So, with that said, how can I help you?
Some reporters wanted to know the difference between video poker and regular poker, or video poker and blackjack, and those were easy for me to answer. Some wanted to know why the game was so popular. To my mind it’s because the game is beatable, and even casual players can get relatively inexpensive casino vacations out of the game.
From there, the questions usually evolved to what other casino games were beatable. Years ago, I would have said blackjack, poker, and sports betting and that would have been the end of my list. But since I’ve been hosting the Gambling with an Edge podcast I’ve become aware that there are LOTS of different avenues for profiting in a casino other than just these games.
Some wanted to know how many winning players there are, and I had to say that any number I came up with would be a wild-assed guess. I don’t know how much any other player nets, let alone how many of the tens of thousands of players (most of whom I have never met) had net scores greater than zero.
One question from the Associated Press was one that I didn’t want to address. The reporter argued that this attack exhibited a great deal of planning and would a successful video poker player have the ability to do such planning? I didn’t want to answer this question because the answer is “Yes!”
What I said was that a successful lawyer would have those planning skills, as would a successful architect, as would a successful chef, as would a successful political advisor, as would a successful reporter, as would basically a successful anything. So yes, you can add successful gambler of any stripe onto that list, but the list is very long.
One reporter told me that CNN reported Paddock was ahead more than $5 million in a recent year. Was this possible? I told them it was very possible that a high-stakes player had more than $5 million in W2G jackpots, but that’s an entirely different matter than being ahead that much. Or even ahead at all! Getting the total of W2Gs from the IRS might be obtainable by the police. But knowing whether he was ahead or behind was a totally different matter.
Four days after the shooting, Bonnie and I left for a long-scheduled two-week cruise from Boston to Quebec City and back again. While in Boston the night before the cruise, I checked my email and found one from Ryan Growney, the general manager of the South Point. He said that an FBI agent wanted to talk with me about the shooting and I should call him back right away to get that FBI agent’s phone numbers. Since I teach classes at the South Point and that casino sponsors the podcast, that casino was a reasonable place for the FBI to start looking for contact information.
Shit!
I’ve heard Bob Nersesian and other attorneys say you NEVER should talk to a police officer without having an attorney present. I figured that went double for talking to the FBI. Still, I was a couple thousand miles away from home and about to sail northwards soon. The $3.99 a minute charge for talking when the ship is actually at sea is relatively small change, of course, but I still didn’t want to pay it. I figured I could handle this, so I found out the number of the FBI special agent and called him.
The agent told me that my name was mentioned by several people when they asked, “Tell us the name of the most likely person you know who might have known Stephen Paddock.” Due to our “video poker connection” and the fact that I play what many would consider high stakes, it didn’t surprise me that my name had come up. When I said I had never heard of him, basically the interview was over.
Except, the agent wanted to fill out the form in front of him and he asked me if my name was Bob, or perhaps Robert? Another question I didn’t want to answer, but I told him that Bob Dancer was a pseudonym used for teaching and writing purposes.
This led to the next question of, “Would you mind telling me your real name?” The truthful (unspoken) answer was of course I minded, but I told him anyway, along with my address and phone number. That information could be easily obtained by the FBI anyway if they really wanted it, but I would prefer I wasn’t in their databases.
Oh well. I wasn’t going to lie to the FBI and making a big stand about something that wouldn’t be difficult for them to find out anyway would just make me look suspicious.
I said at the beginning of this article that I had my doubts that Stephen Paddock was a winning player. Why did I say that? Because articles said he’d been playing for high stakes for more than a decade and he was still allowed to play at a number of the biggest Las Vegas Strip casinos. From both personal experience and talking to many other successful players, I know that these places tend to restrict and/or remove players over whom they do not believe they have an advantage.
So, if he did have an actual advantage, he would have needed to fool several different casinos for more than a decade. And this, I believe, is unlikely. Even more unlikely is that the casinos would have allowed him to be $5 million ahead in one year.
Your article bought up an interesting point. Your pen name is Bob Dancer. Your real name obviously isn’t, but where do you divide the two. Do you use your real name with your neighbors ? At dance tournaments? Where is the divide? I was just picturing the FBI interviewing your neighbors and them asking Bob? Bob who?
That’s Mr and Mrs. Smith, or whatever.
Years back, I had a very good friend who was a wrestler. He never quite got it down when he was on stage and when he being real. Stage guy was loud and boastful. The real guy was not, but as he got more popular and recognized, he didn’t want to disappoint his fans.
Any interesting stories concerning your names might make a good column.
It is ludicrous for the FBI, the media or anyone to ask you whether you thought the shooter was a winning player. The FBI can easily get this information (and probably has) by requesting win-loss statements from the various casinos. I think that the status of a VP player has no relationship to his decision to become a mass murderer.
The premise that if Paddock was a multimillion-dollar winner, he wouldn’t have been allowed to play for more than a decade is somewhat contradicted by your continuing assertion (which i do not doubt) that YOU are a winning player of that magnitude over the years and yet, you continue to be allowed to play (with some exceptions, I understand).
So if you can consistently win and are easily identifiable as a winning player, yet are allowed to play, why couldn’t that be the case with Paddock? If you attribute your playing longevity to any particular skill set (that would be extraneous to the game itself, such as cultivating relationships with casino personnel), then why couldn’t Paddock have employed such a skill set to retain his ability to play and win?
In an article in the Review-Journal, Jean Scott showed how to win like the shooter, though she didn’t disclose the casino she played at.
In an article in the Review-Journal, Jean Scott showed how to win like the shooter, though she didn’t disclose the casino she played at.
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Hardly. The article said she was playing quarter Hundred Play, was down several thousand, got a few good hands so she was ahead, and then stopped. The article implied that stopping while you’re ahead is the secret to winning at video poker.
Jean has some skills, but she certainly didn’t share why she was playing that game at that casino at that time. Had she done that, then yeah, that would explain how a high-roller worked. Merely getting ahead and then quitting is NOT how it’s done.
It helps to have a cover. Jean’s cover is that she’s a retired school teacher and is “midwest nice”. The shooter’s cover was probably that he was a lone psychopath who liked to take guns to his room. The better your cover, the longer the casinos let you play.
I’m going to say this again. I hate the phrase: “To my mind it’s because the game is beatable.”
Only a very select few of video poker games are “beatable”. If comps, etc., put you over 100%, then that’s what’s beatable. Not the game of video poker.
I’m going to say this again. I hate the phrase: “To my mind it’s because the game is beatable.”
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Whether you hate the phrase or not is irrelevant to me. It is BY FAR the major reason I play the game. And I believe it’s important to many others as well.
If you think it’s fun to play and don’t care whether you win or the casino does, knock yourself out. But remember, this blog is called “Gambling with an Edge” for a reason. The things I write about are about winning — not playing a game because it’s “fun.”
The things I write about are about winning — not playing a game because it’s “fun.”
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Yup . . .
Though Jean didn’t say where she was playing in the article, the description of the machines, plus the fact that she seems to really like the promos there, suggest to me that she was playing at the Palms. The hundred-play JOB machines have always been the tool of choice to get promo perks there that depend on fairly large amounts of coin-in; with 0.25% cashback, 9/6 JOB costs very little and you don’t have to deal with high volatility in an inherently low-volatility game and your results smoothed out by playing multi-line.
Names mean nothing. It is the people behind them.
Dwight and Louise Crevelt were pioneers in video poker.
Linda Boyd was a pioneer in video poker.
Jean Scott was a pioneer in video poker.
Bob Dancer was a pioneer in video poker.
William Leonard Day was a pioneer in video poker.
Pioneers don’t have names. The original pioneer in blackjack card counting? He has no name. The only moniker he ever had was “the little man from California in the black hat.” You could ask pit bosses to tell you stories about the little man from California in the black hat, but unfortunately those pit bosses are long gone and so is the little man from California in the black hat.
I miss the old days.
“the little man from California in the black hat.”? Sounds like Munchkin but could have been Keyser Soze. Little people get better views of the cards.
I believe with cash back, free play, drawings and tournaments he could have shown a profit. He might also have been given supplemental free play from hosts in addition to loss rebate deals. The casinos are not going disclose this to the public, only law enforcement. In addition it doesn’t take much in standard deviation to make someone a big winner over a break even or losing player. You can run good for a decade. This is because hitting a Royal Flush takes 40,000 hands on average. With such a large number the variance is incredible and playing multi-line games all that has to happen is hitting a few dealt royals above expectancy.
Suddenly your a huge winner and this could have happened for the shooter.
I’m trying to remember back.
I believe that the little man from California in the black hat was around some time before Dr. Thorpe and Stanford Wong had first gained access to the supercomputer at MIT.
I dug out my old copy of “Beat The Dealer” and will be re-reading it in the next couple of weeks to brush up on the time line.
If they’re any good, they’d be in the Blackjack Hall of Fame, or in the case of poker the Poker Hall of Fame, or in the case of video poker the Video Poker Hall of Fame. Except for Keyser Soze who is completely undocumented and thus technically doesn’t even exist.
If they’re any good, they’d be in the Blackjack Hall of Fame, or in the case of poker the Poker Hall of Fame, or in the case of video poker the Video Poker Hall of Fame. Except for Keyser Soze who is completely undocumented and thus technically doesn’t even exist.
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I disagree. The video poker hall of fame is mainly writers. There are a number of outstanding players who are not in there. Even players I know and believe are pretty good, I really don’t know how successful they are. Nobody shares their financial information with me. (I’m assuming that a “successful” gambler is one who gets the money out of a casino.)
Unlike poker, there is no head-to-head competition in video poker so it’s hard to get a feel for whose better than whom.
Both Jean and her husband Brad are CET Seven Star’s; so that’s $1,500,000 annual play, through CET each!
Both Jean and her husband Brad are CET Seven Star’s; so that’s $1,500,000 annual play, through CET each!
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It takes less than 1/3 that much to become Seven Stars if you want it to. Some years you can do it for $400,000 or so. While that may still seem like a lot to you, it’s nowhere near $1,500,000.
Every day you play 5,000 points ($50,000 coin-in on vp), they give you an additional 10,000 tier points. There are promotions such as “earn 5,000 tier credits for next year if you . . . ” or “any play between March 1 and June 30 gives you a 50% premium on tier credits up to a xxxxxxxx limit,” etc.
I may be in the minority, but as a recreational player one reason I have enjoyed playing VP is because the decisions you have to make help me relax. On a slot machine there are no decisions so my mind will be able to think of other things. To play video poker properly, for me, I am forced to concentrate some. That occupies my brain just enough to escape the everyday thoughts for awhile.
Anyone else enjoying playing, in part, for the same reason?
Absolutely. As Bob Dancer once said on a Travel Channel episode, ” a drunken monkey can play slots but a drunk monkey can’t play video poker”.
I have seen plenty of drunken monkeys play video poker. They make lots of strategy mistakes and often, don’t use a player’s card.
Absolutely-spot on. It is hard to get other people to understand that you are actually relaxed when you are wagering money, but I feel the same way. I get a sense of calm come over me when I get a seat at my favorite VP game and know that I can settle in for a few hours.
Bob, check your seminar calendar. January 7 is a Sunday. I’m trying to get airline to get reasonable airfare.
THANK YOU.
The correct DAY is TUESDAY, not Wednesday. The correct starting day is January 9, not January 7.
It will take until Monday before it gets fixed on bobdancer.com.
Please come up and identify yourself, Don, during classes. I want to thank you personally for catching this.
Bob