Maryland, Ohio prosper; Sands scraping bottom in Macao

Regional gaming continues to be a gravy train. Maryland casinos grossed $168.5 million in August, up 9% from 2019. Just think how much better the take would have been had the month not been two weekend days shorter than August 2020. MGM National Harbor led the pack with $67.5 million, up 8%, while Maryland Live‘s 35% market share translated into $59.5 million in revenue, a 12% gain. Horseshoe Baltimore actually managed to lose ground, down 1.5% to $18 million. Ocean Downs neared $10 million, up 12%, while Hollywood Perryville grossed $8 million in a 21.5% leap. Rocky Gap Resort brought in $6 million for a 10% uptick.

Yesterday, Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli predicted a 19% upsurge in Ohio when August receipts were tallied. He overshot his mark … just barely. The Buckeye State rose 18% to gross $194 million. Wrote JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff, “We note that results for the full month indicate that rising delta variant infection rates have not yet negatively impacted visitation/revenue, consistent with recent commentary from operators.” Slots-only MGM Northfield Park led the state with $23 million, up 12% and edging Hollywood Columbus‘ $21 million (+10.5%). Hollywood Toledo made $19.5 million, up 13%, but Scioto Downs came on fast, +22%, to win $20 million. Even the smaller fry were prospering. Hollywood Dayton grossed $12.5 million, a 25% leap, Hollywood Mahoning Valley captured $13.5 million, hopping 21%, and Belterra Park gained 9% to $8 million.

Second-best in the state was Jack Cleveland, enjoying a long-abated resurgence with $22 million (+22%). Jack Thistledown trotted to $17 million (+39.5%) and Hard Rock Cincinnati regained its footing with $20 million (+16.5%). Miami Valley Gaming continues to pay off for Churchill Downs, making $18 million, up 16.5%. Statewide, slot coin-in was 19% higher than two years ago and win was +18%. Tables were lucky for the house, with wagering 17.5% higher and win 17.5% greater, on tighter hold. There was some deceleration in revenue levels from July, as Santarelli foresaw, a harbinger than things will continue to be good for the casinos but that a downturn is on the far horizon.

That’s a helluva lot better than what’s happening in Macao, at least if Las Vegas Sands‘ numbers are anything to go by. Today it disclosed that July revenues were $265 million, declining to $148 million in August. Cash flow swung from positive to negative (meaning that Sands’ manifold casinos aren’t generating a return on investment). “However,” wrote Greff, “these results shouldn’t come as a surprise to the most recent of our/investor expectations, which have been eroding given tighter border restrictions that were implemented in Macau throughout the summer, impairing visitation there. Recall travel restrictions started to tighten in late July and really picked up in August.”

He continued, “Admittedly, it’s tough to be near-term bullish on the Macau sub-sector with an expectation of an immediate positive travel mobility catalyst. But those investors who are patient should like the laggard profile … The key issue for both Macau (and Singapore) is travel mobility, which is going to be directly tied to infection and vaccination rates and ensuing travel policies changes, all of which are tough to predict.” Tell us about it. Santarelli was more circumspect, aside from noting that Sands was falling significantly short of projections. Coronavirus has made Macao a shadow of its former self.

Opting for predictability over risk, the consensus of the leading legal sports books is that the next Super Bowl will be deja vu: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus the Kansas City Chiefs. If that’s really the case, we’re putting our money on The GOAT right now. Why should this season be any different from the last go-round? TheLines.com doesn’t think so, making the Chiefs +500 favorites (ergo, you win $500 for every C-note you wager). The Buffalo Bills are deemed the only team with a prayer, at +1,150. If you like long odds, there are the Houston Texans at +30,000 or the ever-woeful Detroit Lions at +25,000. Even the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals are doing far better, at a mere +15,000 each. Fans of the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers (all +1,400) at least have reason for hope, with the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Browns also in the mix. And what of the Las Vegas Raiders? They’re languishing at +10,000, behind the dreadful Carolina Panthers. Even celebrity coach Jon Gruden has called this a ‘rebuilding’ year, so abandon all hope, ye who enter Allegiant Stadium.

The Raiders are predicted to lose their opener to the Ravens (-4), with a gaudy 51-point over/under. Indeed, shootouts are expected to be the rule for Week One of NFL season, with the lowest over/under the 42 points predicted for the underwhelming New York Giants/Denver Broncos matchup. The tossup is the Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at the Washington Football Team. (C’mon, Daniel Snyder. It can’t be that hard to think up a new moniker.) The biggest margin victory is the -8 prognosticated for the Bucs over the Dallas Cowboys tomorrow night. The Cowboys, you say? We’ll take the over.

Now that sports betting is a ‘go’ in Arizona, fans won’t have to face the hassle of registering in person. All now licenses have now been awarded and the one professional franchise to get the door slammed in its face was the Phoenix Rising soccer team. Both the Arizona Coyotes and Arizona Rattlers were granted licenses despite lacking OSB partners. BetArizona.com analyst Christopher Boan is predicting a $30 million-$35 million tax bonanza for the state by 2024. Sports franchises will be the quickest to cash in, being in less disarray than their tribal rivals. Approval of the sports-betting compact can so hard upon the beginning of football season that it’s kind of a pell-mell rush to get into the action. Even so, Arizona looks to be a real money-spinner, even if Roger Goodell prefers to play up the educational aspect of sports betting.

Quote of the Day: “Since all casinos everywhere look the same, the big problem isn’t making a casino look real. The big problem is making a casino look interesting.“—Paul Schrader, writer/director of the forthcoming The Card Counter, which opens Friday.