MGM revisited; Mixed month for Indiana

Today it was Credit Suisse analyst Ben Chaiken‘s turn to weigh in on MGM Resorts International‘s 4Q20 numbers and he found even more to like than did Joseph Greff yesterday. Leading with Macao, Chaiken saw MGM China capturing more of mass-market play “which presents a powerful high margin earnings story should there be a mass recovery story in ’22, as is our expectation.” The only damper on that prospect is the stream of big-ticket resort openings from Sands China, Sociedade de Jogos de Macau and Galaxy Entertainment, which could shake things up further. Chaiken also predicted that Wynn Resorts would pivot to mass-market players, presumably because VIP action has been thin on the ground. Like us, Chaiken was keen on the performance of MGM’s regional U.S. casinos, which have boasted “a faster than expected rebound” from pandemic constraints. Although he arguably buried the lead, the analyst was also impressed by BetMGM‘s performance in both i-gaming and sports betting, “outperforming expectations … driven by efficient customer acquisition and better than expected share.”

Looking ahead, Chaiken predicted MGM’s Las Vegas Strip properties would start the year “in a hole” but regional ones will continue to perform well, despite being at 70% of pre-Covid revenue volume. “BetMGM is ramping ahead of expectations at ~17% market share across retail and online. We think MGM has a unique opportunity to cross-sell M Life and BetMGM customers, and ultimately keep customer acquisition costs low.” We’d only add that, given the stellar performance of MGM National Harbor, the company should prioritize major metro markets (Manhattan, Atlanta, Chicago). No more Springfields, Bill.

Casino revenues slackened 12% in Indiana last month, eased no doubt by one extra weekend day and the ‘skinny stimulus.’ Mind you, January 2020 was exceptionally strong in the Hoosier State, so that -12% is better than it looks ($163 million) and high heavens above the raging dumpster fire that is Illinois. Even with the prospect of competition from one megaresort in Chicago, several years distant, it’s baffling why Caesars Entertainment is looking to shed Horseshoe Hammond. It pulled in a state-leading $34 million, down only 1.5%. Also in the pink was Ameristar East Chicago, up 17% to $21 million. Blue Chip continues to suffer, down 33.5% to $8 million. The two Majestic Star boats grossed $7 million and $3 million, with the old Donald Trump vessel posted the lower total. They were flat (Majestic Star I) and -28.5% (Majestic Star II), proving that Trump properties do not age well.

Rising Star inched up 6% to $3 million, which may not be an excuse for CEO Dan Lee to burst out the bubbly but it was the only revenue-positive casino in the southern tier. So three cheers for that. Indiana Grand posted $20 million (-17.5%) while Harrah’s Hoosier Downs fell 25% to $13 million. Caesars Southern Indiana (also on the sale block) grossed $17 million (-21%) while Hollywood Lawrenceburg rang up $13.5 million (-5%). Everything-must-go Tropicana Evansville slid 17% to $10.5 million whilst Belterra Resort stumbled 20% to $7 million. French Lick Resort plunged 25% to $5 million.

Wall Street analysts got much more excited by Indiana‘s sports-betting performance. Chaiken sent out a bulletin noted that OSB alone generated $25 million in revenue, a big jump over December’s $16 million. DraftKings dominated market share with 37% (a five-point gain) while BetMGM ceded a few points to end up at 15%. Handle was $348 million, up 11% sequentially, so the books played pretty darn lucky. While FanDuel was second in market share (32.5%) it was first in revenue, its $9.5 million incrementally better than DraftKings. BetMGM and Caesars each took in $4 million (for an 11.5% market share for CZR). Perhaps the most impressive performance was Penn National‘s $23 million handle, generated entirely by walk-up business, Barstool Sportsbook having yet to launch. Roundball was dominant, with 38% wagered on basketball versus only 22% on football, despite two extra wild-card NFL games. If there was any negative impact from the launch of sports betting in Michigan, it didn’t show.

Richard Fields got his day in court last Monday, with a First Circuit hearing featuring “claims of international bribery, political payoffs, shadowy Mafia figures and rampant sexual misconduct.” Fields, owner of Suffolk Downs, is suing Wynn Resorts for racketeering in Massachusetts, accusing it of “bribery, fraud and other serious misconduct.” Those are some pretty heavy charges to level. The court seemed initially sympathetic, with Justice David Barron calling racketeering “a reasonable inference.” Barron focused the case on the contention that Wynn “had a way of doing business that’s sufficiently criminal that going forward there’s a high risk that they will continue to affiliate with organized crime figures and hide that.” Defense lawyer Aaron Katz made the rather weak counter-argument, ceding that perjury had been committed but that lying on a casino-license application “would be a radical departure” from RICO norms.

On the other hand, Fields lost sympathy in that the casino application had been made in the name of Mohegan Sun, not his. “You’ve made a foreseeability argument but that doesn’t get you very far,” observed Judge Sandra Lynch, while Judge O. Rogeriee Thompson asked, “How are you different from the people who were going to provide the furniture?” She added, “If the commission didn’t grant either party a license, would you be injured?” When Fields’ lawyer insisted “Mohegan would have gotten the license,” Lynch replied, “Well, you’ve given me your answer but I don’t actually think it makes sense.” Fields is playing with fire, accusing Steve Wynn of longstanding Mob ties, greasing the palms of Macao politicians and of having bribed Everett Mayor Carlo DeMaria. (Of course, Caesars, Fields’ initial partner, had Mob issues of its own.) Wynn could still clinch a win, as Fields’ contract with the Mohegan was contingent upon their winning the license first, which they didn’t. As Geena Davis observes in Thelma & Louise, “The law is some tricky shit.”

Jottings: Full House Resorts is putting out $300 million in debt to finance a $180 million revamp of Bronco Billy’s in Colorado, currently the company’s strongest front … Hard Rock International is one step closer to a Rockford casino in Illinois. It has received a “preliminary suitability” finding from regulators. There are still concerns involving slot-route magnate and front man Dan Fischer, over his dubious dealings with shifty Rick Heidner … Resorts World Catskills (pictured), which can barely stand on its own two feet, is going into competition with itself. It’s converting an old Bon-Ton department store into a VLT parlor. “It will create hundreds of good-paying unions jobs, generate significant revenue for New York’s public schools, and is an important step in ensuring the long-term sustainability of Resorts World Catskills,” claims Empire Resorts, claiming this was all a part of Genting Group‘s canny master strategy … Wynn Resorts is pulling back from Japan, yanking its Yokohama location, while claiming still to have Nipponese aspirations … Jim Murren has resurfaced as chairman of Acies International, which is taking Playstudios, maker of MyVegas social-gaming slots, public. Playstudios, valued at $1.1 billion, has a points-redemption deal with MGM Resorts International … Congratulations to the Tulalip Tribes on the successful opening of a $125 million, new casino. The 1,500-slot facility represents a major upgrade from the Tulalips’ previous casino, a converted bingo hall.