Thanks to the epic throwdown between Greta Gerwig‘s Barbie and Christopher Nolan‘s Oppenheimer, bettors are out in force in seven states as the Academy Awards derby comes down to the wire. Bookies.com analyst Bill Speros bluntly told Reuters, “You have two movies that everybody’s seen.” FanDuel is even taking prop bets (color of dresses, etc.) in Canada. At the moment, though, it looks like Oppenheimer will virtually run the table while Barbie is struggling to not get shut out. Virtually the only significant suspense is whether Emma Stone (Poor Things, +125) pulls a narrow upset over Lily Gladstone for Best Actress, thereby validating the National Board of Review jinx. Meanwhile, Barbie is a lock for nothing except Best Original Song. Since the odds are pretty consistent at this point, we’ll go with Covers.com‘s set (plus some averaging by ourselves) and take it away …
Best Picture: Should win—Oppenheimer (-5,000); Will win—Oppenheimer
Best Director: Should win—Christopher Nolan (-5,000, down from a prohibitive -10,000); Will win—Nolan
Best Actress: Should win—Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall, +3,750); Will win—Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon, -175)
Best Actor: Should win—Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers, +525); Will win—Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer, -1,000)
Best Supporting Actress: Should win—Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers, -4,250); Will win—Randolph
Best Supporting Actor: Should win—Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer, -4,250); Will win—Downey
Best Original Screenplay: Should win—The Holdovers (+175); Will win—Anatomy of a Fall (-240)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Should win—American Fiction (-190); Will win—Oppenheimer (+200)
Best Editing: Should win—Oppenheimer (-650); Will win—Oppenheimer
Best Animated Feature: Should win—The Boy & the Heron (+125); Will win—Spider Man: Across the Spider-verse (-160)
Best Documentary Feature: Should win—20 Days in Mariupol (-1,000); Will win—20 Days in Mariupol
Best International Feature: Should win—The Teachers Lounge (+2,500); Will win—The Zone of Interest (-2,500)
Best Cinematography: Should win—Oppenheimer (-2,000); Will win—Oppenheimer
Best Production Design: Should win—Barbie (+110); Will win—Poor Things (-210; we hated this movie, for the record)
Best Costume Design: Should win—Barbie (-175); Will win—Poor Things (+125); this category has been very fluid
Best Hair & Makeup Design: Should win—Maestro (-165); Will win—Poor Things (+120)
Best Visual Effects: Should win—no opinion; Will win—Godzilla Minus One (-190)
Best Original Score: Should win—Killers of the Flower Moon (+1,000); Will win—Oppenheimer (-2,000)
Best Original Song: Should win—anything that isn’t “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (+2,500); Will win—”What Was I Made For” from Barbie (-790; slush wins every time)
Best Sound: Should win—Oppenheimer (-210); Will win—Oppenheimer
Best Live-Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (-690); Will win—The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar; no contest here
Best Animated Short: Should win—Our Uniform (+4,000); Will win—War is Over! (-120, edging out previous Holocaust-themed fave Letter to a Pig, +110); and yes, we’ve seen all five nominees
Best Documentary Short: Should win—The Last Repair Shop (+190); Will win—The ABCs of Book Banning (-200, the missus says this one is really good too)
See you Sunday night.
Failed casino owner and convicted fraudster Donald Trump says he is essentially insolvent. For once, we believe him. (Trump went on Fox & Friends to make the exact opposite claim, but there is no penalty for lying in that forum.) Maybe, just maybe the incorrigible blowhard should have thought of this before he defamed sexual assault victim E. Jean Carroll over … and over … and over … and over again. Some people are too self-infatuated to learn. Anyway, Trump has been all hat and no cattle for over two decades, so it’s refreshing to hear his shysters admit this to the court, even if their client has a relationship with the truth that’s chancy at best.