Las Vegas Advisor

Posted on November 9, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 2 Comments

New York picks winners, losers; Ohio, even Illinois flex muscles

In hopes of having online sports betting operational in time for the Super Bowl, Empire State gaming regulators announced their picks for the state’s nine OSB license applications late yesterday. Winners were BetMGM (just as Bill Hornbuckle predicted), DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, Bally’s, Resorts World, PointsBet, WynnBet and Rush Street Interactive. Each will have to partner with a brick-and-mortar casino and pay 51% of gross gaming revenue in taxes, plus $25 million upfront, making the real winner New York State. Forbes calculates it will see a $493 million windfall by 2025. Losers were led by Barstool Sports, which missed the brass ring, a bitter pill for Penn National Gaming to swallow. Could Barstool’s brash image have been a problem? Others out in the cold are bet365 (which rashly tweeted “I will own New York”), theScore, Fanatics and FoxBet.

Posted on November 9, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 3 Comments

New Video Poker Games at G2E

Every fall (except last one because of the pandemic), the world’s largest gaming show meets in Las Vegas for the Global Gaming Expo. All sorts of products directly or indirectly relating to gaming are on display in the exhibit hall, including new slot and video poker games, new table games, new player tracking systems, surveillance products, uniforms, chairs, legal services, architecture firms, etc.

I specialize in video poker and other games of skill. And this always starts with IGT, which still dominates the market for video poker machines.

Posted on November 8, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

DraftKings talks big, persuades few; Rancor in Richmond

DraftKings divided analysts with its 3Q21 earnings report. Credit Suisse pundit Ben Chaiken said the company was “moving the ball down the field.” That’s despite revenues of $212 million that well undershot Wall Street‘s expected $238 million, rather like a downfield pass that was picked off for an interception. Chaiken blamed the shortfall on low hold on NFL games and an upswing in marketing costs. DraftKings predicts it will bring in $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion next year, not including money from states that have yet to add sports betting. The Street’s consensus is it will be $1.8 billion inclusive of new markets. Chaiken thinks that DKNG will next try to buy or build a media component, as “the next major theme in sports betting will be the emphasis on sports media, which can be used to more efficiently acquire and retain customers.” If a deal can’t be struck with ESPN, look for a purchase of The Athletic.

Posted on November 8, 2021 by James Grosjean — 17 Comments

Sorry, Mattress Mack

For those who missed it, the Jack Casino was recently rebranded as a Hard Rock Casino, and its opening night featured Cincinnati’s own legend, Pete Rose (now a Vegas resident), to make the inaugural table-games bet. That was appropriate, entertaining, ironic, and sad. Like having an alcoholic make the toast at a wedding.

Now 80, Pete Rose is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, despite having the record of 4256 career hits (shoutout to my boy, Ichiro, who is in that conversation). The reason? Because in 1989, Rose was banned from Major League Baseball for life, making him ineligible. Why was he banned from baseball? Did he drive 150+ mph on a Vegas residential street and kill someone? No!! Did he beat his girlfriend unconscious in a hotel elevator? Nooo!!!! Did he threaten to jam a tennis ball down the line judge’s f***ing throat? Not once. Did he get caught video-taping opponents? Did he get caught deflating balls (and then lie about it)? Did he jack up on steroids to boost his power hitting? Did he steal signals and implement a team-wide system to cheat his way to a World Series? As far as I know, he didn’t do any of those things.

Posted on November 4, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 2 Comments

MGM to sell Mirage; Caesars disappoints Wall Street

At a time when the north Las Vegas Strip is finally heating up, MGM Resorts International has chosen this moment to put The Mirage on the market. Although it’s 32 years old (224 in dog years), The Mirage should fetch an attractive price—albeit short of the 14X cash flow that Jim Murren used to shop it around at, back in the Great Recession. Best case scenario, MGM disposes of a geographically isolated asset at a handsome markup (look what happened with The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas). It’s a seller’s market and MGM chose its moment wisely. The only drawback for a potential buyer is that only the operational half of The Mirage is for sale, not the underlying real estate. You’d have to settle for being a Vici Properties tenant.

On the upside, you get a lot of real estate to play with: 77 acres, much of it underdeveloped, according to CEO Bill Hornbuckle. He was in altruistic mood, saying “I’m excited for somebody to come in and make it their marquee property.” As for his own company, “we have enough of Las Vegas … We think there is an opportune time, and we think this might be it to sell an asset in Las Vegas. So it, for us, became the obvious one.” No potential buyer or buyers were tipped, although Hornbuckle’s remarks implied he’s looking for someone without a Strip presence. We’re loath to prognosticate. It would be sentimentally pleasing to see Boyd Gaming back on the Strip but …

Posted on November 3, 2021September 26, 2023 by David Mckee — 6 Comments

Urban One loses; Station thinks big; NFL gets into the slot biz

Richmond voters narrowly chose to cut off their nose to spite their face, voting 51.5% against the Urban One casino proposal. Since casinos were approved by at least 65% in four other Virginia cities in 2020, the resounding question is “Why?” True, an endorsement of Urban One by unpopular gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe (D) probably didn’t help. His victorious opponent, casino investor Glenn Youngkin (R) kept mum on the issue. Although adversaries of Urban One were outspent 10-1, they had the benefit of a wall of NIMBY sentiment at their backs. They were also accused of stoking racial animus and with Urban One polling poorly in predominantly white areas that strategy, if deliberate, may have worked. As of this morning, the casino industry—at least in the private sector—remains an all-white-ownership province.

Posted on November 2, 2021August 24, 2023 by Bob Dancer — 8 Comments

What’s More Important than EV?

Not long ago, I mentioned in a blogpost that if the only difference between an IGT game and a Scientific Gaming game was that straight flushes paid 250 in the former and 275 in the latter, I’d choose IGT because I like the feel and touch of IGT games better. I received some pushback for that comment. Some players said going for higher EV is ALWAYS the correct play, while some more thoughtful posters said, “Why don’t you explain, Bob, when you’re willing to give up EV for other things?” Today’s post is intended to partially address that.

The most important starting point for many players should be bankroll. Compare 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54% and a variance of 19.5) with 9/7 Triple Double Bonus (99.58% and a variance of 98.3). Last time I played at Harrah’s Lake Tahoe (pre-pandemic), both games were available on the same 25 cent Hundred Play machine. (Possibly they were only Fifty Play. It was a while ago). The EV is pretty close to the same, but the swings are much higher on the TDB game. Dealt quads on the JoB game earn you $3,125. Dealt quads on TDB range between $6,250 and $100,000. There were promotions in effect that made these games playable to me

Posted on November 1, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Chicago: Then there were five (?); LV Sands huddles with NY Mets

Or is it three? In the end, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) drew one heavyweight contender for the Windy City casino and a pair of middleweights. Two of the applicants made parlay bids, so the city could crow that it had “five” bidders for the high-tax concession. But despite Lightfoot’s stated aspiration of a Vegas-quality casino, none of the finalists has a Las Vegas return address. Obviously experiencing remorse for having sold its majority stake in Rivers Casino Des Plaines, politically connected Rush Street Gaming is back with two proposals: Rivers Chicago at McCormick and Rivers 78 Gaming. Also dibbing two sites was Bally’s Corp., while the lone heavyweight, Hard Rock International, would manage HR Chicago. None of the no-name bidders turned in paperwork, when it once looked as though they would be all Lightfoot had left.

The billion-dollar resort has yet to be sited, which will be an important factor in the selection processs. The winner also gets slot routes at the city’s two major airports. The casino will need to be a success right out of the chute, given its $160 million-$200 million annual tax liability. Two of the contenders, Rush Street and Bally, are eyeing McCormick Place, which would provide synergy with conventions and expos. Rush Street’s fallback position is a former railroad yard (blah!) in south Chicago, while Bally’s also covets the former Chicago Tribune printing plant. “It would become our flagship.” Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim said of Chi-town casino. On the other side of the coin is non-bidder Bill Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts International, who maintains, “It’s a struggle how it all adds up.”

Posted on October 29, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — 1 Comment

Rockin’ hard; Miller gives anti-smokers hope; Packer’s wrist slapped

Hard Rock International CEO Jim Allen (left) is bullish on the New York City market, if not downright aggressive. In maybe the highlight to come out of the East Coast Gaming Congress, Allen asserted his company’s interest in a New York City casino—and also one at the Meadowlands, only nine miles away. Granted, breaking Atlantic City‘s casino monopoly (from which Hard Rock currently benefits) would take a major upheaval in the New Jersey Lege, as well as a constitutional amendment, but we’re not counting Allen out. This double-whammy strategy with respect to NYC (whose casino licenses will be issued in 2023) would normally have us saying the company has drunk its bathwater … but there’s no better brand in gaming nowadays than Hard Rock, so if anybody could pull this parlay off, they could. Also, if any brand belongs in or near Manhattan, Hard Rock has the vibe for it.

“We’re interested in both markets, and if God is good enough to allow us to operate in both, we would be happy to do so,” Allen told reporter Wayne Parry, no doubt cognizant of the fact that Garden State voters nixed a Meadowlands casino in 2016, so he’s bucking the odds. He added he was “100%” certain that New York City could support three casinos, pointing out that Atlantic City is carrying nine. “It may be possible that a market as robust as metro New York City could support two properties,” said UNLV gaming supremo David G. Schwartz, waxing more skeptical than Allen. Actually, the Big Apple does support two casinos, if VLT-only Resorts World New York and MGM Empire City Yonkers count. (We agree with Allen, presuming that the third casino is more attractive than a converted racetrack.)

Posted on October 27, 2021September 14, 2023 by David Mckee — Leave a comment

Baccarat cools Las Vegas a bit; Boyd sets records; Reno bans whips

Stimulus cash may be petering out somewhat and international tourism has yet to open the floodgates, so September found Nevada on something of a cusp between the supercharged recovery of the summer and the hoped-for travel rebound in 4Q21. Still, Las Vegas Strip revenues were up 10% to $640.5 million and locals-driven receipts were 13% above 2019 levels. Statewide, gambling win tallied 9% higher than two years ago, hitting the wonted $1.1 billion level. As Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli puts it, “the accounting calendar was clean in September of 2021,” meaning there was no held-over slot revenue from August. With numbers like these it’s little wonder that gaming executives are waxing optimistic for the long haul. Strip slot players lost $355 million, 16% more on 16% higher coin-in and flat hold. Baccarat wagering was down only 5% but luck wasn’t with the house, as win fell 24% despite higher-than-normal hold. Non-baccarat table games fared much better, up 20% on 12% more wagering. If it weren’t for baccarat, Strip revenues would have been 18% above 2019’s apogee.

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