Posted on by — Leave a comment

Mega-jottings for the weekend

It didn’t take Blackstone Group long to start spending the ‘mad money’ it got for selling The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. It plunked down $305 million for all 15 hotels owned by Condor Hospitality Trust. Dare we suggest that Blackstone got more bang for the buck than did the buyers of the Cosmo? … We’ll have to wait until Nov. 17 to find out who gets the Terre Haute casino license but the early renderings are intriguing. Full House Resorts shows by far the most architectural imagination and flair while low-roller Premier Gaming Group brings up the rear, in more ways than one. All the contenders bring more credibility to the table than did Spectacle Entertainment or shiftless Lucy Luck Gaming … Churchill Downs is getting pretty in-your-face with its Derby City casino (in all but name) in downtown Louisville. Located in a former US Bank (above), it will feature a wraparound video marquee and a plethora of “historical racing” machines. Funding will come at least in part from the $197 million sale of an Illinois racetrack to the Chicago Bears … Awana Spa at Resorts World Las Vegas tops Business Insider‘s list of the 10 best hotel spas in the U.S. and is the only casino-based spa to make the grade. It definitely offers something different: “The spa showcases a theater-inspired heated room with aromatherapy, choreographed music, lighting, and dancing towels, and it’s as avant garde as it is relaxing.” You can keep the avant-garde, we just want the relaxation … Casino de Monte Carlo is back as a must-see spot thanks to upcoming James Bond vehicle No Time to Die. Expressions of interest in the venerable casino are up 910%, although we think 007 would prefer someplace less trammeled … Sports betting went live at Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods Resort Casino a week sooner than anticipated. Retail betting is a ‘go’ but OSB is still a ways off. The Connecticut Lottery will participate via 10 Sportech OTBs and five other locations to be announced.

Quote of the Day: “The time is always ripe to do right.”—Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Posted on by — 5 Comments

Strip sizzles in August

Casinos on the Las Vegas Strip grossed $626 million last month, 20% better than August 2019. Statewide, the jump was 22% to $1.65 billion but the real overachievers were locals casinos, leaping 41% (to $250 million) with a little help from end-of-July slot revenues that were literally dumped into the early August grosses. Locals also demonstrated more resilience, down just 3% from an epic July, whereas the Strip slipped 21% month/month. Strip slot win was $358 million, a 38% vault on 26% more coin-in (plus tighter hold). Table game win—$259 million—was relatively static, up a point, on 4% higher wagering. Subtract baccarat and it looked better, 7% more win on 12% larger betting. Not that baccarat was bad: Win was down 7% and play was 8% lower, pretty good when you consider the game’s high volatility.

Continue reading Strip sizzles in August
Posted on by — 6 Comments

Low blow

The “covidiots” have struck. Yours truly has tested positive for Covid-19, despite having been vaccinated and being generally asymptomatic. This means no trip to Global Gaming Expo, and no collection of the sights and sounds of the Las Vegas Strip. I’ll post what I can from my sickbed but it’s just not the same as being there. Sorry, folks.

Posted on by — 7 Comments

Colin Jones (S2 E3): Courage

In the half century since Ed Thorp published Beat the Dealer, dozens of card counting systems have been developed and promoted. Any numbers nerd with a simulator and a couch can sit there and spit out card counting systems, complete with all the technical mumbo jumbo about the method of index generation, the true-count conversion, the optimal bet ramps, and don’t forget N0. From there the posers can endlessly debate merits of one system over another, without ever even having to suck a chip out of a casino rack.

When card counters suffer huge losses, they go back to those “experts” for an autopsy. Here it comes: Should I memorize more indices? Is my bet spread okay? What is the optimal wong-out point? Is HiLo good enough? Should I play on a card so I can get a buffet and a George Foreman grill?

Continue reading Colin Jones (S2 E3): Courage
Posted on by — Leave a comment

Cosmo finds pigeons; Scientific sheds sports betting

Reflecting the irrational exuberance surrounding the Las Vegas Strip, it’s a done deal at The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas. The $3.9 billion resort’s physical assets sold for $4 billion, albeit to a cloudy “group of buyers that includes a Blackstone real estate investment trust.” So there may be some jiggery-pokery at work here. The big news was that MGM Resorts International was unable to resist the dangled bait that was the Cosmo’s operating company, paying a hefty $1.6 billion and change, plus $200 million in annual rent for the plum. Our sources say Cosmo cash flow is about two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels so either MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle is taking a big gamble or an infusion of M Life is just what the doctor ordered. Regardless, Blackstone is making out like a bandit on a property it bought for $1.7 billion back in 2014, as in $4.1 billion in windfall profits. It also reduces its exposure in its #1 market, Sin City.

Among those paying Blackstone far more than the Cosmo is worth is investment firm Stonepeak, as well as Panda Express founders Andrew and Peggy Cherng. The real winner in all this may Caesars Entertainment CEO Tom Reeg, who can ask several kings’ ransom for whichever Strip asset he chooses to put on the sell block next year (right now it’s looking like Bally’s Las Vegas). Hornbuckle and CFO Jonathan Halkyard claimed the Cosmo would expand MGM’s customer base but it’s hard to believe it isn’t the other way around. Regardless, they had to justify the megabucks they poured into a non-core asset. University of Nevada-Las Vegas boffin Amanda Bellarmino defended the splurge, saying, “The acquisition could help MGM to target younger travelers by acquiring this successful and attractive property.” (Wasn’t that what Park MGM was supposed to do?) Unlike predecessor Deutsche Bank, Blackstone knew how to run the Cosmo and the $500 million capex it put into the old gal clearly paid dividends.

Continue reading Cosmo finds pigeons; Scientific sheds sports betting
Posted on by — 5 Comments

A Look at Double Double Bonus Poker Plus

Perhaps this is a very old game, but I just saw it for the first time recently. It looked interesting, so I thought I’d analyze it.

I was playing $5 NSU Deuces at Harrah’s Cherokee and had just hit four deuces for a $5,000 jackpot. Always nice, but it’s a once-every-5,356-hands event on average, so it’s not all that rare.

Continue reading A Look at Double Double Bonus Poker Plus
Posted on by — 1 Comment

Macao fears overdone?; Dispatches from Atlantic City

After a long bout with the flu, we’re back with our usual persiflage. One of the stocks that was on the sickbed last week was Las Vegas Sands, bedridden from proposed new restrictions on Macao casinos. Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli put pen to paper to assure readers that the worst is behind us. His analysis “provides us with confidence that downside risk from current levels should be fairly limited, though we acknowledge, valuation in the current environment has seemingly been a function of the latest stock price, plus or minus the interpretation of the next headline, and as such, we don’t deny that the near term could be choppy.” Santarelli outlined several caveats: “we aren’t pretending to know or display confidence around our view of the potential outcomes of the Gaming Law process in Macau … we recognize the situation in Macau is uncertain, though we believe the market has taken a fairly draconian view on the potential outcomes [and] we recognize incremental investment into the Macau centric names at this time of the calendar year and with this level of uncertainty is challenging.” Still, “we believe, the medium to longer-term risk-reward is skewed favorably in LVS at current levels.”

Continue reading Macao fears overdone?; Dispatches from Atlantic City
Posted on by — 3 Comments

Colin Jones (S2 E2): A Brain and a Little BR

In his book The 21st-Century Card Counter, Colin Jones talks about bankroll requirements. On page 81, in the chapter “Do I have What It Takes? The DNA of a Card Counter” he says this: “A card counter needs only two tools: a brain and a bankroll.” When I read that sentence, I almost threw an apoplectic fit. I thought, “Here it comes, this guy is going to perpetuate the myth that the main weapon of an AP—maybe even the defining characteristic—is a bankroll.” To my pleasant surprise, he then went on to dismiss that fallacy.

He writes that you need a brain, but he already dispelled the MIT Myth earlier in the chapter (as I did on page -3 of Exhibit CAA). You don’t need a great brain—me and my little brain will do just fine. Same with the bankroll. You don’t need $10k, he says—a little BR of $2k will do.

Continue reading Colin Jones (S2 E2): A Brain and a Little BR
Posted on by — 1 Comment

Atlantic City slumps, as does Pennsylvania; Culinary kabuki theatre

Casinos along the Boardwalk continue to be impervious to the economic recovery that is prevalent in the gaming industry. Atlantic City was down 8% last month compared to 2019, grossing $262.5 million. Sports betting brought in $52 million (+32% from 2020) on handle of $646 million and Internet gambling generated $119 million (+29%). Terrestrial slot revenue was down 5% on 7% lower coin-in and luck was not with the house as regards table games, where revenues tumbled 18% on only 5% less wagering. Borgata got its clock cleaned (-28%), plunging 52% at the tables on 25% less drop, while slot win declined 20% on 23% less handle.

The Caesars Entertainment triumvirate slipped 13%, driven by 15% less win on 7% lower wagering, whilst slots were a bright spot, flat despite 12% less handle. Only Ocean Casino Resort and Hard Rock Atlantic City were revenue-positive for the month, with Hard Rock ($46 million) breathing down Borgata’s neck ($52 million). It gained 19% while Ocean was 38% higher than in 2019, grossing $33 million and grasping third place in the city. Caesars Atlantic City won $25 million, down 20%, Harrah’s Resort snared $28 million, off 10% and Tropicana Atlantic City ceded only 8.5% to finish at $29 million. Resorts Atlantic City did relatively well, just -2.5% down to $18.5 million, Golden Nugget swooned 23% to $16 million and Bally’s Atlantic City stumbled 17.5% to $15.5 million.

Continue reading Atlantic City slumps, as does Pennsylvania; Culinary kabuki theatre
Posted on by — 16 Comments

Is This a Good Deal?

I’ve had a relationship with Anthony Curtis for more than 25 years. Mostly it’s a business relationship, but over the years we’ve also become friends of sorts. Not best friends, but friends nonetheless.

I received a telephone call from him at about eight o’clock one Saturday evening recently. I took the call, of course, but this was a surprise. I would definitely not be his first choice on a call like, “Hey, I’ve got an extra ticket to the Raiders game tomorrow. You interested?”

Continue reading Is This a Good Deal?