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Maryland heats up; Vegas restaurants rebound; Rivers is george

Casinos in the Free State jetted 13% above 2019 levels, grossing $172 million, a new record. MGM National Harbor led with $68.5 million (+16%) and 40% market share. Maryland Live was up 15% to $61.5 million for 35.5% market share, while Hollywood Perryville justified Penn National Gaming‘s faith in the property, jumping 23% to $8.5 million. Ocean Downs gained 19%, also to $8.5 million and Rocky Gap Casino was up 21.5% to $6 million. The only loser was—you guessed it—Horseshoe Baltimore, sagging 5% to $19.5 million. New management at Caesars Entertainment has announced no plans for the property and it’s an open question whether they have any. Now would be a good time. Over in West Virginia, casinos continue to lag the 2021 recovery, down 18%, with Penn Charles Town further behind at -20%. Overall, slots were a relative bright spot, -17%, negated by a -21% dive at the tables.

“I think there’s incredible resiliency,” restaurant impresario Elizabeth Blau says of Las Vegas. There needs to be, as the Great Shutdown took a scythe to Sin City’s dining scene. “Now with the Virgin hotel opening, Resorts World opening, and numerous hotels having major restaurant openings. Major arenas reopening—the old Vegas is roaring back,” Blau contends. The cascade of debuts includes Virgin Las VegasOne Steakhouse (March), Linq Promenade‘s Sweet Sin (April) and Wynncore‘s long-awaited Delilah (July), all perfectly timed to trade in on Las Vegas’ comeback. And that’s to say nothing of the 40-plus eateries Resorts World Las Vegas will unleash upon the market, with something for every price point. Even buffets are returning, albeit few and cautiously. However, if restaurants are on the rebound, their workers aren’t getting the memo. “Half our union is still not back to work. We have half the union back to work and the other half is still waiting for the jobs. Waiting for when they call them back,” groused the Culinary Union‘s Geoconda Argüello-Kline. Even the new ‘right to return’ law can’t redress that.

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Getting nasty in Florida; Police blotter

A “tortured artifice.” That’s what Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber (D) calls the new Florida gaming compact in a letter to the Interior Department. He urged them to reject the deal, not because of any issues with the Seminole Tribe, but on account of various baubles appended to the compact to placate private interests. Or, as Gelber put it in a nine-page missive Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, “It was simply a vehicle hijacked by non-tribal casino interests who fully corrupted the legislative and executive process in order to obtain advantages outside of tribal land and in direct contravention to the interests of Floridians.” Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ agenda, Gelber argues, was not to cut a deal with the Seminoles but to appease political donors and “his most important political patron,” Donald Trump. Incidentally, the latter is reportedly planning to flip his Doral resort to a gaming-centric corporation, should it get a casino license, which we didn’t expect.

Gelber accuses DeSantis of accepting free airplane rides and partying on yachts owned by his patrons, then rewarding them with gaming entitlements. “Indeed, their efforts paid off, as Governor DeSantis included provisions in the Florida Compact that set the groundwork for casino expansion for a prime campaign donor at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach and for his major political patron at the Trump Doral.”

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Don’t make mine Manhattan

That’s the word from key legislators, who have made it clear that Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) would be putting a casino in Manhattan over their dead bodies. “I believe it would be seriously detrimental to the residential and commercial quality of Manhattan,” said Assemblyman Richard Gottfried. Cuomo’s idea of compromise was to allow Manhattanites to hold their nose and choose where on the island a megaresort would go. Sort of a pick-your-poison deal. But lawmakers said that was spinach and to hell with it. “This got really close. It fell apart in the wee hours of the morning,” a source told the New York Post.

Meanwhile, executives for the three interested companies—Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts and Bally’s Corp.—are waiting until January, when solons may revisit the issue. For Sands, which essentially builds convention centers with ‘big barn’ casinos tacked on, a Manhattan site may be crucial. As for Cuomo, he has sugarplum fairies bearing $1.5 million in licensing fees dancing in his head. In theory, it should be a five-way race for a three full-spectrum casinos but everyone and their brother expects MGM Empire State in Yonkers and Resorts World New York in Queens to be juiced into the first two licenses, leaving Sands and its ilk squabbling over the last one.

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How Do You Figure?

I received an email, with numerous follow-ups, from a player wanting to know how many dollars per hour certain games were worth at a particular casino. And he wanted me to give him an answer if he played 600, 800, or 1,000 hands per hour (hph) for various denominations.

It is far easier to ask such questions than it is to answer them. Some of it can be figured by simple algebra (assuming that isn’t a self-contradictory term for you), but some of it depends on unknown things, such as what promotions the casino will run in the future, how large the mailers will be, and other such matters.

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High on the Strip

Hard by Planet Hollywood there’s a strip mall where you can get some egg rolls at Panda Express, satisfy a Big Mac Attack at McDonalds … and buy pre-rolled joints at the little boutique above. Legalized marijuana hasn’t infiltrated casinos yet, but it’s getting closer. (Addendum: Actually, it’s untruth-in-advertising. A source says Rey Las Vegas is just selling CBD product and the “Pre-rolls” is purely for show. Still, a sign of the changing times.)

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Steve Wynn, international man of mystery

“Foreign agent.” That’s who Steve Wynn is, according to the Justice Department, which is prepared to sue the disgraced casino mogul if he doesn’t register as an aegis of Red China‘s government. Seems that Steve was carrying water for the ChiComms during Donald Trump‘s administration. Specifically, he was leaning on the White House to extradite a certain Guo Wengui, who sought asylum in our great country back in 2014. The Chinese say Guo is wanted for bribery and sexual assault. And of course we can always take the Beijing government at its word. (*Cough*Wuhan*Cough*) Ultimately, in another chapter of the Trump/Wynn love-hate relationship, The Donald didn’t cede to Wynn’s pressure … perhaps because Guo is card-carrying member of the Mar-a-Lago country club. He’s also in Steve Bannon‘s Rolodex, which obviously didn’t hurt his cause.

According to Bloomberg, “Under the Foreign Agent Registration Act, passed in 1938, any person representing the interest of foreign entities in the U.S.—including governments—must disclose their relationship to the Justice Department. They also need to make public all of the activities they’ve done on their behalf and, if applicable, how much they were paid.” Hmmm … Steve Wynn do something untoward? Nah.

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Strip returns to form; Caesars nixes buffets, free play

Last month Nevada raced ahead of 2019 gambling-revenue benchmarks, up 11% to just over $1 billion. Locals-derived winnings ($245 million) jumped 18%, despite operating at 80% capacity. (Locals casinos saw 15% higher slot win 18% greater handle and 35.5% more table win on 9% higher wagering—talk about luck being with the house.) Similarly confined were Las Vegas Strip casinos, which finally matched 2019 numbers with a $483.5 million performance. Strip slot revenue ($327 million) was up 19% on 16% more coin-in, while non-baccarat table win was down 10% on 3% less wagering. Baccarat remains a black hole, with winnings down 58% on 42% less wagering and low hold percentages. In other words, slots saved the day.

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Case Bets

Zion National Park

Colorado closed out its first full year of sports betting with an April decline, presaging a summer slump that is likely to prevail until football season. Handle was $244.5 million, which left $10.5 million in revenue after promotional credits ($6.5 million) were deducted. “In U.S. sports betting, there isn’t any real substitute for the popularity of the NFL or the NCAA Tournament,” understated Play USA analyst Ian St. Clair. “But even with a monthly decline in wagering, Colorado continues to fare well compared with similarly sized states.” The only real loser in Colorado’s first year of sports wagering is the state tax collector, who only brought in $6.5 million (on $2.3 billion handle and $147 million gross receipts), which some warned may bring a second look from the guvmint. NBA wagering ($84 million) led the Rocky Mountain State in April, distantly followed by baseball ($48 million) “a total likely dampened by the struggles of the Colorado Rockies.” The Colorado Avalanche scared up $10.5 million in hockey wagers and table tennis was almost as popular—$9 million in handle. Just imagine what that latter number will be when the summer Olympics finally roll around.

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New Casino Opening Up

Resorts World Las Vegas is set to open on June 24. You can bet I’ll be there in the first few days to check things out. If I find anything playable, I’ll play a lot and sit back and wait and see what comes in the mail. I suppose you could say that’s my standard M.O. at casino openings.

Some of my best results ever have been at casino openings. Often the new slot director was an assistant slot director at the last place worked and doesn’t understand how much of a difference there is between the two positions. The net effect is that new casinos sometimes open much looser or more generous than is profitable for them — and that’s good news for the players.

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Caesars, MGM lead Vegas recovery; Florida compact dicey

Let’s start with some good news. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff laid out a series of benchmarks for a Las Vegas comeback across the second half of 2021 (one year earlier than anticipated). “We think these data points are indicative of the strong and relatively quick inflection of demand on the LV Strip, with particular importance for group/convention business into the fall,” he wrote. While this rising tide should lift all boats, Greff picked MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment to be particular beneficiaries, with Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming getting a lift off the back end.

For starters, airlines are coming back in a big way. Airlift capacity into Las Vegas is expected to be at 93% of 2019 levels by June and 97% by July, compared to a national average of 85% and 89% for those same months. And in September, when convention season starts in earnest, airlift is expected to be above 2019 levels. As for room rates, 3Q21 prices still lag 2018 by 8% but 6% higher on weekends. Caesars’ occupancy has already risen to 84% in March from on 72% in February and can be expected to keep moving the needle, with weekends sold out “for the foreseeable future.” As payrolls grow in other industries, discretionary income increases and unemployment continues to drop, the benefits trickle down to Boyd and Station.

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