Posted on 21 Comments

How Likely Is This?

I hit a $2 NSU Deuces Wild royal recently — from left to right Q♣ K♣ A♣ T♣ J♣. It’s not an unusual royal in any respect. It was a one card draw with the queen coming in as desired.

The next day, 22 clock hours later but only four hours of video poker play, I hit a $1 9/6 Jacks or Better royal in the exact same Q♣ K♣ A♣ T♣ J♣ order. This time I needed to draw both the queen and the ace to collect.

So, I asked myself the same question that I’ve received from others so many times: How rare is this? I suggest you come up with a number before we continue.

I’m omitting the fact that the two royals required a different number of cards to be drawn — although, frankly, if they had matched there too, I’d have included that into the mix. The tradition in these exercises is to add in any and everything you can to make your event more unique than a similar situation. If you can make your event be 1-in-2,000,000, that’s twice as good as being only a mere 1-in-1,000,000.

I’m omitting the fact that it was two royals in only four hours of play. Calling it two royals in four hours starts the clock when I hit the first royal. It was also two royals in 76 hours of play. But it was about a tenth of a royal cycle before I hit the second one and you have about a 1-in-11 chance of connecting on something in a tenth of a cycle.

And I’m limiting the discussion to single line games. For all who have been dealt four-to-the-royal on Triple Play through Hundred Play and connected on more than one royal, all those royals on the same deal were alike. It can happen drawing to three-of-fewer-to-the-royal as well, but that’s not so common.

The number I get is that there is a 1-in-480 chance that your next royal be in the same suit-and-rank order as the last one you got. One way to figure this out is you have a 1-in-4 chance to be the same suit. Once the suit is determined, you have a 1-in-5 chance (queen in this case) for the first card to be in the correct position. Then 1-in-4, 1-in-3, and 1-in-2 for the next three cards. Once those have been determined, the last card is predetermined. Multiplying all of those out, you get 1-in-480.

Which isn’t that rare. Even if I multiply it by 11 because the second one happened in one-tenth of a cycle. Frequently in video poker we can come up with shots that are more than 1-in-1,000,000. This doesn’t come close to that.

Over a lifetime, it figures that a lot of us will do this. I don’t know exactly how many single-line royal flushes I’ve had, but it’s probably 400-500 or so (and probably three times that many on multi-line machines) and there are only 480 different ways for a royal to be. It’s very possible I’ve done this previously and not realized it.

I don’t have photographs of most of my royals and even if I remember that I hit two diamond royals four days apart, I wouldn’t be sure of the order of the cards. It’s just not something that makes a big impression on me. 

But this time, since I happened to take pictures (Bonnie still gets a kick out of them and asked me why I sent the same picture twice), I saw them side-by-side and noticed they were the same order.

I created this article immediately after I hit the second royal described above. Nine days later I hit another single-line royal, also in clubs, with the cards in the same order — sort of. If you shift all of the cards two positions to the right (or three to the left), using some sort of wrap-around feature, the cards are in the same order.

I’m not going to attempt to figure out how likely this was for a next royal. It’s not an exact match, and there are a variety of different ways that an inexact match could be similar.

Still, I think it’s curious and interesting.

Posted on 8 Comments

Since You Asked — The Rat Pack Is Back

Usually, when a show bounces around from venue to venue, it’s a bad sign. It can mean that attendance is insufficient, or the casino isn’t promoting it well, or the space doesn’t work for the show. None of these reasons is usually overcome by moving to another venue — if the show actually does move. More times that not, when a show closes, the producers state that they say they’re “looking for a new home.” Then, it’s never heard from again.

One exception is The Rat Pack is Back. Before the shutdown in mid-March, it ws playing at the slightly off-Strip Tuscany. Previously, it appeared at the Plaza and the now-defunct Greek Isles, among other places. If that doesn’t seem like a stellar resumé, don’t be misled. It’s a really fun and enjoyable show.

Continue reading Since You Asked — The Rat Pack Is Back
Posted on 9 Comments

Not My Thing

I was beginning my play at the South Point for their July “Spin 2 Win” promotion, playing, for variety, the 25¢ Good Times Pay version of NSU Deuces Wild. This is a Triple Play game where you get multipliers from 1x to 7x on each of the three lines (averaging exactly 2x). This uses the same strategy and has the same EV as regular NSU.  Although it is slower to play than the $2 single line version that I would play were I in more of in a hurry, in my opinion it is more enjoyable to play. At least sometimes.

Two machines over (the one between us was turned off for social distancing reasons) was an Ultimate X machine that goes up to 25¢ Triple Play. The 9/6 Double Double Bonus version of that game has basically the same return as NSU  and is much more difficult to play correctly, but is far more exciting. 

Continue reading Not My Thing
Posted on 4 Comments

Since You Asked — Wings Over Vegas

I’m a wings aficionado. It’s my favorite food by far. I once flew from New York City to Buffalo and back in one day, just to go to the Anchor Bar and have wings for lunch. Then I married a girl from Buffalo! Even before I did, I spent plenty of time there, so if you’re from Buffalo, I submit the following to establish my street cred:

  • My favorite wings are Big Tree Inn, Buffalo Brew Pub, and Amherst Pizza and Ale House. 
  • I prefer Anchor Bar to Duff’s.
  • Bleu cheese. Period. Don’t even mention ranch.
  • Wings shouldn’t be breaded or baked. Those might be wings, and they might be chicken, but they’re not wings.
In Buffalo, NY, they have their priorities straight.

Las Vegas has lots of great food, but sometimes you’re just looking for good wings. They’re there, but you have to know where to find them. Here are my reviews and recommendations.

Best Wings on the Strip

Continue reading Since You Asked — Wings Over Vegas
Posted on 8 Comments

A Somewhat Closer Look at Gambler’s Bonus

In my last two blogs, I mentioned the Gambler’s Bonus system that was attached to games I played long ago. I received a lengthy post (which you may find in the comments to the July 21 post on www.gamblingwithanedge.com ) asking me lots of specifics about that particular slot club system.

I’ll respond where I can. I don’t have inside information on how it worked, and it’s been a long time since I played it, but I’ll tell you what I remember. It’s possible that the system has changed some since I actively played it.

Continue reading A Somewhat Closer Look at Gambler’s Bonus
Posted on 4 Comments

Gambler’s Bonus Reminiscences – Part II of II

Last week I wrote about a juicy game that lasted for several years in 15-machine pubs in greater Las Vegas. If you read that article first, this one will make more sense.

Near the end of the time when this game was available, the manager of one of these pubs asked if I could meet him for lunch away from the pub. Sure. No problem. He had been to some of my classes and we were friendly.

Continue reading Gambler’s Bonus Reminiscences – Part II of II
Posted on 9 Comments

Gambler’s Bonus Reminiscences – Part I of II

For a five-year period ending about a decade ago, I played a lot at certain 15-machine pubs in the southeastern section of the Las Vegas valley. Places such as Village Pub, Raye’s, Doc Holliday’s, and Franklin’s. Most of these places have changed owners and names since then. All have removed the game I played. 

My game of choice was a version of Deuces Bonus in the Gambler’s Bonus system called Deuces Plus. Today, the best IGT version of this game pays 45-20-20 for straight flushes, quads, and full houses with a return of 99.45%. The version at the pubs paid 50-20-20 with the royal returning 1,000-for-1 rather than 800-for-1. This made it a 100.35% game. Plus slot club. Plus bonuses. And all these places had the game for ten-coin $5 — meaning $50 hand.

Continue reading Gambler’s Bonus Reminiscences – Part I of II
Posted on 4 Comments

Two Simple Applications of the Binomial Distribution

A month or so ago I answered the Question of the Day for the Las Vegas Advisor and I answered it in terms of the Binomial Distribution. There were some comments posted after that QOD indicating that people wanted to know more about it. This is a lightly edited version of a 2012 article that I published should be sufficient to respond to those questions.

I receive a lot of mail asking such questions as, “If I am dealt four cards to the royal flush (such as A♥ K♥ Q♥ T♥) and I am playing Fifty Play, how many royals will I usually end up getting?” or, “I played more than 200,000 hands of Jacks or Better and only received three royal flushes. How unlucky was this?”

Continue reading Two Simple Applications of the Binomial Distribution