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Fearless Oscar Forecast

It’s that time again, dear readers. With a lot of help from veteran oddsmaker Johnny Avello of DraftKings, here are some thoughts on what’s going to go down on Sunday night. First off, we’re picking a mild upset, on the strength of Sinners‘ (+500) surprise Best Ensemble win at the SAG Awards. We think it rides that momentum, great box office and a record number of Oscar nominations to Best Picture status. Yes, One Battle After Another (-500) has led from wire to wire, but it’s a hard film to warm up to (although incredibly pertinent) and frontrunners have a tendency to fade in the home stretch. Our metaphorical money is on Ryan Coogler‘s Dixie vampire opus. Besides, it’s been a few years since the Motion Picture Academy embraced a blockbuster. We think it’s going to happen this weekend. Should win: Sinners. Will win: Sinners.

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Why Would They Do That?

Bob Dancer

I’ve written recently about looking for certain slot machines to be reset — because some of them, not many, reset to conditions favorable to the player. A reader who calls himself jstewa22 wrote a number of posts saying this didn’t make any sense to him. Why would a machine reset in such a way? A very good question, to be sure. Today’s blog attempts to address this question.

First of all, keep in mind that gaming manufacturers (IGT, Aristocrat, Konami, etc.) are not owned or run by casinos. They are separate entities. Manufacturers need to walk a fine line between casinos and players. To be successful, the game must be profitable for the casinos and interesting to the players.

Also keep in mind that game designers aren’t, for the most part, also advantage players. The game designers might pick a reset number out of the blue — resetting to 12 sounds good, perhaps — and go with it. 

The game manufacturers possibly don’t know the return for the machine when reset at 12 (or any other number). They know the overall Return to Player (RTP) (typically between 85% and 95%) over time, but may not have the return broken out at every possible reset number. 

Advantage players, however, make it a point to know when a game is positive. We collect data and analyze what we find. When we do find a game that resets positively, we play until the game is no longer positive.

A famous example of this happened a few years ago when New Jersey allowed online gambling. I wasn’t involved in this bonanza, and might have some details wrong, but it went something like this.

On the game Ocean Magic, the game reset positively FOR EVERY PLAYER FOR EVERY DENOMINATION. So, a player signed up, deposited money, probably collected a signup bonus, and then played off all denominations and number of coins — of which there were lots. When that player had run through all of the possibilities, he was done gambling and ready to cash out — often thousands of dollars ahead.

That player would then do the same thing using the identities of as many people as he could talk into it. How much these people were paid to let the APs use their name and accounts was open to negotiation. But if a player could get dozens (or even dozens of dozens!) of additional names so Ocean Magic would reset for every one of them, think of the windfall!

It didn’t take long for the New Jersey Gaming Commission (or whatever the organization is called) to notice this pattern: players sign up, play all the Ocean Magic combinations, and then cash out. When the NJGC figured it out, they stopped it. They either got the Ocean Magic manufacturer to change the reset numbers or stopped offering the game.

I heard there were lawsuits against the players for “taking advantage” of the situation. As I understand it, players eventually got paid — but many were barred from playing online in New Jersey thereafter at one or more casinos. The players who spotted this did quite well for themselves until it was shut down. Today there are ways to play Ocean Magic with an advantage, but not when the game is originally reset.

How could this happen? I’m not really sure, but I am sure it did happen. Somebody somewhere didn’t dot all the i’s and cross all of the t’s. This was another case of “the early bird gets the worm.” The early discoverers made out like bandits. The rest of us just heard about it after it was no longer profitable.

While I know of four different games that are positive at reset, at least some of the time, you’ll never see me identify which games those are. The reason is simple. I assume some number of my readers are casino employees. If I told them which games are beatable in this way, you can bet that the opportunity would dry up essentially immediately. Casinos would demand that manufacturers fix this problem — or the casino would no longer offer the game. And since a game that casinos won’t buy (or lease) is no good at all to a manufacturer, the manufacturers will comply with the casinos’ wishes.

Even if the knowledgeable player can figure out how to make thousands of dollars when these particular games are reset, resets don’t happen very often, and the games are still wildly profitable to the casinos.

Consider the opposite side of this: One game that definitely is NOT beatable at reset is Buffalo Power Pay. When this game is reset, all of the betting options have the Major at 30 and the Mega at 50. When the numbers are at this level, the game returns 80% or so. It takes a while for the Major and Mega to be built up so it’s profitable for to the players.

But at some major casinos in Las Vegas, these games are reset by the casinos several times a week! This is equivalent to letting the players build up progressives, and then the casino confiscates the money that the players built up. I’ve asked Bob Nersessian about this, and his belief is that it is patently illegal to do this. And casinos are doing it time and time again.

A player who complained about this to the casino would thereby identify himself as a player who paid attention to such numbers — and, for the most part, casinos don’t appreciate such players. The player who complained would be, in effect, outing himself as a player the casino wishes to kick out. Because of this, players do not complain about this to the casinos.

There’s another way for games to reset positively — and that is for the new starting number to be selected at random! Sometimes it’s positive for the player. Usually not. But it does happen from time to time. On these games, just playing regularly, players have noticed the reset number — and sometimes it is positive after the bonus round is played. Sharp players are alert to this!

I’m not sure my explanation will satisfy jstewa22. After all, the explanation is basically “shit happens on occasion, but alert players can take advantage of this.” 

I think jstewa22 was thinking that casinos and/or manufacturers were INTENTIONALLY doing this, and that simply didn’t make sense to him. As well it shouldn’t. These organizations are in the business of making money off of players — not supporting APs. I’m certain casinos and manufacturers are definitely NOT doing this on purpose. But there are a lot of moving parts and a lot of decision makers, and sometimes somebody somehow someway drops the ball.

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Gambling Hits Rock Bottom

There is no ethical or moral sinkhole so deep that prediction markets cannot find an even lower abyss to plumb. They may, however, have reached their nadir this week. Polymarket started taking bets on—we kid you not—whether nuclear war would break out over the Middle East. We weren’t there to see it but we’re pretty damn sure that, when Jesus Christ was being crucified on Golgotha, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (above) was among those gleefully shooting dice for His clothing.

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Texas-Sized Defeat

Nobody can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory quite like Dr. Miriam Adelson. The ancient meddler and majority owner of Las Vegas Sands saw another slate Sands-proxy candidates go down to defeat last night in the Lone Star State’s primary. Texas voters applied a 10-gallon boot to Adelson’s carpetbagging posterior, in yet another rejection of her ham-fisted agenda. It takes a special kind of reverse political acumen to take a state where a majority of the electorate favors casinos and sports betting, and then turn them into a vociferous bunch of NIMBYs. But Miriam has done it again.

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Bobby Vegas — Elvis, Rolexes for You, and Disco

Bobby Vegas: Friends Don’t Let Friends Play Triple-Zero Roulette

Just got back from a late showing of Baz Luhrman’s exceptional documentary, EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert.

Do you love Vegas history half as much as I do? Go see the man, the performer, the original superstar made real. It’s a never-before-seen backstage view of Elvis’ humor, talent, and peak performances at the International/Hilton/now Westgate.

The reviews are off the chart. My only regret is I wasn’t in town for the Feb 10th FREE showing at Westgate in the same room Elvis performed 636 sold-out shows.

My favorite reveal? Elvis went through the audience and kissed as many women who wanted him to on the lips! Some fainted. Some cried. Some both. Incredible.

My personal Bobby Vegas Elvis story?

Staying at the Hilton for years under a too-good-to-be-true scuffler deal (four nights, including weekends, four buffets, spa passes, and some free play and coupons for $155), I was there so much the valets knew me. Okay, I’m a George, tipping them in and out.

(I’d seen ZZ Top perform in the same theater where Elvis played right off the main floor.)

Anyway, chatting up a security guard about the major missed opportunity/tragedy that Hilton never did justice to its incredible cultural music history, he says, “You want tragic? The previous owners came in, tore Elvis’ suite out, and THREW EVERYTHING AWAY!”

He then casually mentions that in the backstage area, they’d left Elvis’s dressing room intact and asks, “Wanna see it?”

“OMG, yes!”

We went down and I got a private backstage tour. That, my friends, was a Bobby Vegas super-cool moment. It pays to be friendly and curious.

Westgate elevated Elvis’ history with a statue and the free showing on Feb.10. I think Cami Christensen, Westgate GM, should show the move in that theater three to five times a week.

Go see EpiC. Elvis has left the building, but his legacy endures even today, 49 years after his death.

Next. Rolexes 4 U. This month’s Rainbow/Emerald Island contest is a drawing for FOUR Rolexes at the end of this month, two each at EI and Rainbow. Same deal as in my last blog: 200 points per ticket. $200 coin in. If a reader wins one, please tell us in comments or through Anthony’s YouTube channel.

Finally, disco. Yes (again), I love to dance and am told regularly I’m a wonderful dancer, (reference my VIP-given status as unofficial House Dancer at The Pinky Ring).

I grew up playing several instruments, listening (thanks, Mom) to classical, jazz, Motown, reggae, and rock, but dance was it for me and lately, with all the craziness in the world we’re all going through, it’s crucial to find experiences you love, that bring joy.

That’s my family of friends, Vegas, writing, and dancing.

This weekend I went to a “Gimme Gimme Disco” event for $25. Great deal. Total blast. The show is all over the U.S. Google it.

At Spiegleworld’s closed Discoshow space at the Linq, I implored management to do something with the $40 million venue. They did. Check out the Saturday night free disco event, Club Honey. Even if you have two left feet, the ladies love it. So? “You should be dancing.” Go!

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How Lucky Was It?

Bob Dancer

Last week I wrote about completing a royal flush cycle (one or more royals in each suit) within one trip. I was very lucky, to be sure, but just how lucky?

I have a hard time calculating how lucky something was after the fact. You can massage the numbers and come up with all sorts of probabilities. There is not one absolutely correct answer that everybody can agree on.

Let’s start with the 11-day trip. I used all of it, hitting the club royal on my last day there. Most players never have an 11-day out-of-town casino trip in their entire career! I’ve had 14-day trips to Cherokee. I would have been just as delighted to complete the cycle on one of those trips. But I never did.

It’s not the length of the trip, of course, that determines your chances, but rather the number of hands played. Near as I can tell, I played about 62,000 video poker hands. I know how many points I earned during the trip, but some of my play was on slots. I record my points earned each day, but not how that number of points is broken down between slots and video poker.

I know I’m going to be using the word “cycle” in a different way now, but a “royal cycle” is the number of hands, on average, to hit a royal flush in a particular game. In Jacks or Better the number is right around 40,000, and that’s the commonly used number for video poker royal cycles. But NSU has a longer cycle, 43,456 hands, because you play hands differently in this game.

Calling 62,000 hands 1.4 royal cycles is as close as I can get. The 43,456 number is fairly precise (I could tell you that number is 43,456.27, which would be more precise, but hardly more useful), while the 62,000 number is an educated guesstimate. Using the Binomial Theorem, connecting on exactly four royals in 1.4 cycles happens about 4% of the time, and connecting on four or more royals in 1.4 cycles happens about 5.6% of the time.

If I connect on exactly four royals, all four suits will be present only about 9% of the time. Were I fortunate enough to have connected on five-or-more royals (I wish!), it would have been easier to have all four suits represented. Not a lock, of course, but easier.

Now what do we do with the club royal being dealt? The “dealt-ness” of that royal was overkill. I would have also completed the cycle even if I had needed to draw one or more cards to get the club royal. 

But the royal being dealt allows me to jack up my numbers when I tell people how rare this was. (It’s not something I normally do, but I’m discussing it here because there are always “How rare was it anyway?” questions.)

The dealt royal arrives approximately every 650,000 hands. But since at the time it hit, I needed the royal in clubs to complete the cycle, those only come around one-quarter as often — or about every 2,600,000 hands. 

All these things had to happen on the same trip — namely playing 62,000 hands, collecting at least four royals, having every suit being accounted for in those four or more royals, and (this one is optional), one of these had to be dealt. To determine how likely all of this is, you need to multiply all of these probabilities together. I’ll let others do it, because I’m not at all convinced that figuring out how likely something was to happen — after you know it did happen — is a meaningful exercise at all.

There’s more on this trip. The deuces cycle in this game is about 5,356 hands. In 62,000 hands you have 11.6 of these cycles. I collected 12 sets of deuces — which is essentially spot on given the imprecision of the 62,000 number. The thing is, one of those sets of deuces was dealt. 

Being dealt a specific quad happens every 54,167 hands, on average — so in 62,000 hands “it figures” I would have collected one or more. Mathematically, even though 62,000 is larger than 54,167, I was still a slight underdog to hit exactly one set of dealt deuces on the trip, although I was a sizeable favorite to collect one or more.

What this has to do with anything is that on the same trip I was dealt a royal and dealt deuces! (I was also dealt four aces with a deuce, which is another rare event that is called a 5-of-a-kind for $400 in $5 NSU Deuces Wild and it’s the kind of hand that makes you wish you were playing a different game!) Being dealt a royal is rare enough. But also being dealt deuces is even more rare!

It was, to be sure, a trip to remember!

Sometimes casinos restrict players who have too much success. I’m hoping that’s not the case here.

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The Hidden Happy Hour Gems of Las Vegas

Hidden Happy Hour Gems Las Vegas

Not all happy hours are obvious. Some of the best ones aren’t advertised on the door, aren’t packed at 5 p.m., and aren’t widely known unless someone tells you.

Those are hidden happy hour gems—restaurants with unassuming menus, off-hour specials, or insider-only deals that reward people who know where (and when) to look.

For Las Vegas Advisor readers, this is the sweet spot:
less noise, better food, and pricing that feels intentional.

Happy Hour Vegas tracks over 500 happy hours including these under-the-radar spots across the city and makes them available for you here at the new Las Vegas Advisor Happy Hours. Below are a few standout examples of Hidden Happy hour gems in Las Vegas that are worth trying for yourself.

D’Agostino’s Trattoria – Dolci e Bevande

Why it’s a hidden gem
D’Agostino’s doesn’t feel like a “deal” restaurant and that’s the point. It’s a family-run Italian spot with a growing local following built on seasonal ingredients, consistent execution, and a dining room that loves its regulars.

The hidden move here isn’t early evening—it’s late and it’s a real thing.

What makes it special
Chef Danny’s late-night happy hour, Dolci e Bevande (8:30–10:00 PM), is designed for people who already ate dinner or just left a show and want something better than a last call drink.

  • Fresh-made limoncello tiramisu
  • Creative cocktails like a strawberry gin fizz
  • A relaxed, end-of-night pace that feels intentional

It’s the kind of happy hour you only find if someone points it out.

Why LVA readers should care
This is value without compromise. You’re not trading quality for price—you’re getting both, simply by timing it right.

👉 Full details on D’Agostino’s happy hour

Oak Room Grill – Cheeseburger Eggrolls

Why it’s a hidden gem
Tucked inside The District at Green Valley Ranch, Oak Room Grill flies under the Strip radar but is well known to Henderson locals who value space, atmosphere, and solid cocktails.

What makes it special
The happy hour hits a rare balance of upscale food and aggressive drink discounts.

  • $7 cheeseburger egg rolls
  • Crispy shrimp and shareable bites
  • 50% off a wide selection of cocktails, wine (including bottles), sangrias, and beer

It’s the kind of place people linger—and the pricing encourages it.

Why LVA readers should care
Half-off drinks at an upscale neighborhood restaurant isn’t common. This is a low-stress, high-comfort happy hour that feels designed for regulars, not tourists.

👉 Full Oak Rom Grill happy hour details

Via Brasil Steakhouse – Angus Sliders & Beet Salad

Why it’s a hidden gem
Via Brasil is known for its all-you-can-eat Brazilian steakhouse experience—but Summerlin locals know the smarter move is the happy hour.

What makes it special
Instead of committing to a full churrascaria experience, happy hour delivers standout value:

  • $5 Angus beef sliders
  • $15 filet mignon sliders
  • $7 cocktails
  • Solid wine options, including Malbec

A personal favorite: $5 sliders, the $8 balsamic beet salad, and a $7 Malbec—a complete $20 happy hour.

Why LVA readers should care
This is premium protein at happy hour prices. It’s a strategic way to enjoy a steakhouse-level kitchen without the steakhouse bill.

👉 Via Brasil happy hour menu and details

The Parlour Happy Hour – Freckled Red Head Burger

Why it’s a hidden gem
Downtown Vegas has plenty of buzz—but The Parlour remains a true neighborhood secret. It’s casual, social, and quietly one of the best weekday happy hour values in the area.

What makes it special
The pricing is straightforward and generous:

  • $7 cocktails
  • $3 beers
  • $8 empanadas
  • $7 “Sexy Single” burger

The insider order: the $9 Freckled Red Head burger, $3 fries, and a couple $3 beers—one of the best ways to spend $18 after 2 PM on a weekday.

Why LVA readers should care
Downtown value without chaos. This is a repeatable, reliable happy hour that rewards locals who know the timing.

👉 The Parlour happy hour details and menu

Weera Thai Happy Hour – Cocktails & Crab

Why it’s a hidden gem
Five locations across the valley tell you everything you need to know: locals are paying attention. Weera Thai is a family-run operation delivering authentic Thai food with consistent happy hour pricing.

What makes it special
The $7–$8–$9 happy hour menu is deep and dependable:

  • Thai Chicken Curry Puff
  • Fried Calamari
  • Kung Sarong
  • Crab stick
  • Fresh, well-balanced cocktails

The bar itself is a comfortable hang—ideal for lingering beyond one round.

Why LVA readers should care
This is authentic food at accessible prices, backed by consistency across multiple locations. That combination is rare—and valuable.

👉 Weera Thai happy hour menu and prices

Hidden Happy Hour Gems Matter

These aren’t places you stumble into. They’re places you remember, share, and return to. And, by visiting and sharing your experience, you’re supporting local business and the community. Hidden gems are often locally run and family-owned businesses that offer:

  • Better pacing
  • Less crowd pressure
  • More thoughtful menus
  • Pricing that rewards timing, not hype

That’s what makes them valuable and, if one of these spots surprised you, that’s the point. Now, go discover, try and share one (or all ) of these local favorites or explore more hidden happy hour gems here.

Want to be the first to know about new Happy hours and hidden gems?

Happy Hour Vegas sends curated, verified happy hour deals including new finds and quiet standouts straight to your inbox. Every week, thousands of members get first-in-line access to happy hour deals, events, and giveaways. Plus, local experts tracking 500+ happy hours with updated menus, prices, links and tips for the week.

👉 Sign up for the free Happy Hour Vegas newsletter

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Blue Orchid Thai Kitchen


One cannot live on Lotus of Siam alone.

Lotus is definitely the best Thai restaurant and one of the best restaurants, period, in Las Vegas and beyond, but it can be a tough reservation, it’s always something of a madhouse, and we’ve been waiting for the original location in the Commercial Center to reopen for nearly 10 years and the new venue in Henderson for nearly three, so we look for alternatives. When Blue Orchid opened earlier this year on Las Vegas Blvd. at Cactus Ave. across from South Point, we thought it might fill the bill.

Blue Orchid is the third Las Vegas restaurant from the Cheung family, which opened the first Pin Kaow Thai restaurant 25 years ago on North Rainbow; the second is on Eastern Ave. south of the Beltway. In fact, in 2023, we wrote about it after a brief visit: “We may finally have found a challenger for Lotus of Siam in the Thai restaurant Pin Kaow. We’ve been hearing about it for a long time and our first taste was exceptional.”

So was our first taste of Blue Orchid and its innovative take on classic Thai dishes. Our go-to for quality Thai is always tom yum ($32 for two), prepared tableside with the base broth, all the bowls of fresh ingredients including the shrimp we ordered, and the portable burner. The process was impeccable and the result, well, exquisite would be an understatement.

Our number-two tryout is larb (pronounced “laab,” $18), a Laotian minced-meat salad that’s popular in northeastern Thailand. We’ve had it with pork, chicken, beef, even duck, but we’d never seen a shrimp ceviche larb on a Thai menu. Since we’re ceviche fanatics, we had to try it; in fact, it was what got us interested in Blue Orchid in the first place. It was fine, though nothing like we expected, and we won’t order it again.

Not so for the tamarind sticky ribs ($16), no sir! The next time we want ribs of any kind, we’ll make the drive down to Blue Orchid.

In fact, this is the quality of restaurant to which you want to return again and again to sample everything the fantastic kitchen dishes up. It’s not Lotus, but it comes close enough for our taste.

Our bill came with tax came to $80.