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How Can This Be?

Bob Dancer

In late February, I posted a blog about leaving a machine after hitting a jackpot. My opinion was that, unless the jackpot you hit was a progressive that changed the nature of whether the game was playable or not, I keep playing.

Most responders to the blog agreed with me, but David Miller posted the following: It has been my personal observation that when I hit a large jackpot and continued to play the same machine, I have never increased my winnings by this continuation of play. After 35+ years of playing video poker I can only think of two occasions of observing (and my own play) where another jackpot of any large amount occurred when one continued to play the same machine. My advice: Thank the Lord and take the money and run.

While I thank David for his response, I’m trying to figure out how such an experienced player came up with a conclusion so opposite my own.

David’s term “large jackpot” is somewhat vague. I’m going to arbitrarily define it as 800 coins or larger on a five-coin bet. This would include royals, four aces on many games, four 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker on many games, and four deuces on deuces wild games. With that definition, I’ve increased my score after hitting such a jackpot more than 500 times. And many times, I’ve witnessed players sitting near me hit multiple jackpots on the same machine. How can David have so few?

While “David” is a common name and I’ve met many Davids without always knowing a last name, I’m assuming I’ve never met him and I’m also assuming his post is on the level and he believes what he said. So, what I’m saying about him here is speculation. Here are the explanations I’ve come up with:

  1. He may have been thinking of royal flushes only when he said “large jackpot.” There are many fewer data points if you’re only thinking of those jackpots rather than the 800 coins or higher definition I chose. Hitting two royals in the same day is a pretty rare event. While I’ve done it, (more likely of course on multi-line games than single line games), I’ve played a lot more video poker than most others have.
  1. While 35+ years is longer than I’ve been playing, perhaps he doesn’t play very much each year. He could have played one weekend every three years, with three or four hours of video poker play per weekend visit. I’ve probably averaged more than 1,500 hours of play a year for the last 31 years. Even though his 35+ years is greater than my 31, if this supposition is true, I’ve played a lot more than he has.
  1. Possibly David doesn’t remember clearly. I don’t know his age or how good his memory is. Having played 35 years, he must be at least eligible for senior discounts.
  1. When David says something “never” happens, perhaps he isn’t speaking precisely. To me, “never” means never. Maybe to him, he means “rarely” rather than never.
  1. There’s a difference in how professional and recreational players play. When a professional player finds a good play, he can play on the same machine for hours — frequently accompanied by other strong players playing for hours. As a group, there will be jackpots numerous times over the course of a 35+ year career. Even if hitting a jackpot represents the “high water mark of the day” 80% of the time, the other 20% of the time scores will get bigger. Over the course of a long career, 20% of a large number of occurrences is a sizeable number.
  1. The explanation for David’s comments that I believe the most likely, stems from his behavior. Perhaps he changes machines immediately after he hits a jackpot. Since he believes he’s not going to increase his score if he continues to play on the same machine, changing machines for him seems like a smart strategy. If this is the strategy he uses, it’s no wonder he has never increased his score on the same machine after a jackpot simply because he never plays on the same machine after hitting a jackpot.

While I don’t believe in the value of changing machines, it’s not always possible for me anyway. Often the machine I want to play is either a one-of-a-kind or one-of-very-few. If I insist on leaving every time I get a jackpot, there may well not be one of similar EV available. 

If my final guess is the correct one, while David’s statement is true, it isn’t at all relevant to those players who stay on the same machine.

If David wants to respond to my comments here, he’s welcome to do so.

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The Big Chill

We warned you. Last week we predicted February’s casino numbers in Las Vegas (and indeed in Nevada) wouldn’t be pretty. And they’re not. The Las Vegas Strip plummeted 14% and the Silver State overall was down 9%. Mind you, the plunge had more than a little to with February 2024 seeing a Super Bowl in Las Vegas while February of this year had no such drawing card. Indeed, Super Bowl Weekend in Sin City this year was reported to be pretty weak. In case you’re wondering, when compared to 2023, the Strip was still down—albeit just 3%.

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Patisserie

One of the many unusual sights in Las Vegas is the 26-foot-tall chocolate fountain at the Patisserie, located at Bellagio just beyond the Conservatory.

Three different kinds and colors (white, dark, and milk) of chocolate flow from oyster-shell-type tier to tier through the fountain. Enclosed in a temperature-controlled glass case, 4,000 pounds of liquid chocolate ooze along at a rate of 30 gallons per minute, facilitated by six pumps and 500 feet of stainless-steel pipe.

Once the largest chocolate fountain in the world, it was surpassed only in 2020 by a 30-foot-tall display at a Lindt factory, museum, and shop in Zurich, Switzerland, so now the Patisserie fountain is “merely” the largest in the U.S.

As tempting as it looks, the chocolate is for decoration only; it’s never converted into anything edible. But that doesn’t stop the Patisserie from selling shelves upon shelves of candy in canisters, such as peanut M&Ms ($20 for the large), chocolate-covered hazelnuts ($10), pistachio white-chocolate green glass ($11.50), and blueberry-pearl mint chocolate ($19.85), plus bags of Remill coffee and cakes turning round and round on motorized lazy susans.


The line for the Patisserie’s menu items goes all the way around the half-circular counter and often extends out into the hall, but service is very fast. You order, pay at the cashier, and watch your food being made at the glassed-in front counter.

You can get your order to go in a bag, eat standing up at one of the small tables, or carry it over to the comfortable seating area in a rotunda-like alcove down the hall.

Breakfasts include yogurt-berry parfaits, muesli, and fruit bowls ($12), egg-cheese-bacon croissant ($17), smoked salmon plate ($23), four kinds of omelets ($17), sweet and savory crepes ($15-$17), sandwiches and salads ($19), along with all the hot and iced coffee drinks you’d expect from a French café ($5.50-$7.25).

We tried the strawberry and whipped-cream crepe and an almond croissant and the bill came to $23.79 with tax — anything but bargain prices, but this is Bellagio, after all, and the Patisserie offerings are fancy, fast, and plentiful. Good play for something light and quick and a great reason to see the record-setting fountain, especially if you’re checking out the latest display at the Conservatory and Botanical Gardens.

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Wicked Spoon Buffet

by Peter Bijlsma

Of the five buffets operated by MGM Resorts, this one, at the Cosmoplitan, offers by far the best experience for the price. Those at MGM Grand, Excalibur, and Luxor are pretty mediocre and Luxor’s will be closing soon. Bellagio has gone downhill since it opened again after COVID, with no more king crab and caviar and snow crab legs only for dinner, not at the brunch. The servers don’t serve anything, they just collect used plates. You have to get your own beverages at a drink station or buy at the bar.

The servers at the Wicked Spoon are friendly and attentive. They bring a bottle of cold water to every table without even asking for it and take orders for soda, coffee, beer, wine, and cocktails. A beverage menu on the table shows the available drinks with prices. Bottled beer is around $11, wine $15, cocktails $18, and bottomless pours of wine, mimosas, and Bud Light $30 with a 90-minute limit.

At the Wicked Spoon, they’re also focused on keeping food waste to a minimum. Many items are presented in individual dishes rather than in bulk and that includes sauces and melted butter, discouraging guests to load up more on their plate or bowl than they’ll consume. Personally, I like to sample, picking up little bites, knowing that I can always go back and get more of something I like. Of course, you can’t do this in a regular restaurant.

There’s too much to list every item separately. Here’s a summary with some highlights.

The salad bar is on a separate island that includes the charcuterie section with cut cheese, salami, etc. The shrimp cocktails are also there. You get two large peeled prawns in a little dish with just enough cocktail sauce and a piece of lemon. There’s a good selection of fruit, several types of bread with a toaster next to it, and soups. Also smoked salmon with cream cheese, capers, onion, and tomatoes. And small dishes with tuna crudo and beef carpaccio. Little bags with corn tortilla chips and guacamole for dipping. Individual portions of salad, including Caesars.

appetizers with shrimp cocktail, smoked salmon with capers, beef carpaccio, and some sushi

In the main buffet, there’s an egg station where you can order an omelet with a selection of additions, such as bacon bits, cheese, ham, shrimp, onions, peppers, spinach, tomatoes, and mushrooms. They also have eggs Benedict, scrambled eggs, bacon, and breakfast sausages. Around the corner are individual dishes with what they call “angry” mac and cheese.

egg Benedict, bacon, large spicy prawn

At the Carvery are chicken, turkey, ham, several types of sausage, pork shoulder, tri tip, New York strip, and leg of lamb with a choice of sauces and gravy. Don’t fill yourself up on potatoes, pasta, and pizza; there’s more good stuff coming.

The next section starts with the crab legs, clarified butter, and some Asian dishes including a selection of sushi. Also fried rice, roasted bok choy, spicy shrimp, and cute little take-out boxes with steamed white rice. Finally, there’s a stack of bamboo steamers with dumplings and some more dim sum items.

The separate dessert island features a large variety of pies, cookies, cakes, and ice cream if you still have room left.

When I visited, they had a special offer for Nevada locals on Wednesday: $38 instead of $47 with a state ID. On top of that, there was also a half-price or 2-for-1 promotion for MGM Rewards members, valid until Memorial Day, so I paid only $19 plus tax — best deal in Las Vegas for any brunch buffet, even without crab legs. Club members can still get the 2-for-1 deal until May 26, the $38 price for locals on Wednesdays is ongoing, regular prices are listed on our buffet page. You can barely get a single lunch item and a soda for $19 anywhere on the Strip since Ocean One closed.

Directions: The Cosmopolitan has two towers. The Wicked Spoon Buffet is located in the western one, known as the Chelsea tower. Take the entrance to the parking garage at West Harmon Ave. I prefer to park at level B4 or B5. There’s a loading dock for delivery trucks at B1, AVIS uses part of B2 for their rental cars, and the Jockey Club has reserved spots at B3. Try to park as close as you can to the Chelsea elevators. Once up at the casino level take the nearby escalator to level 2. The buffet is at the end of the hallway.

MGM Rewards members Pearl and up get free unlimited self parking. Nevada locals get 3 hours. To get upgraded to Pearl tier get the First Bank MGM no annual fee MasterCard. You can fill out an application at any MGM Rewards desk. Insert your Pearl or higher card into the slot when you enter the garage. The gate will open and you don’t get a ticket. Do the same to exit. All others have to push the button for a ticket.

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Send in the Clowns

Grease paint and putty noses were on full display yesterday at the Nevada Gaming Commission‘s charade of pretending to discipline Resorts World Las Vegas for consorting with criminals and laundering their money. In reality, the purpose of the hearing was to sweep the whole inconvenient mess under the nearest rug. The NGC rubber-stamped a paltry, $10.5 million fine, one which veteran casino executive and regulator Richard Schuetz termed not even a wrist slap.

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Hockey Knights in Vegas Episode 104: Emil Lilleberg Is a Five-Letter Word for a Cat

Hockey Knights in Vegas is BACK!

The beautiful thing about doing a podcast vs. being in traditional media is that there’s no need to mince words, be politically correct, or tap dance around hard truths. Eddie takes full advantage of that to open Episode 104.

WARNING! This episode begins with an extended profanity-laden rant about Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Emil Lilleberg and his blatantly dirty hit that knocked Tomas Hertl out of the game and out of the lineup for an undetermined length.

With Hertl, arguably the hottest player in the NHL and the VGK’s leading goal scorer sidelined, Coach Cassidy is going to have to make some significant line changes.

Eddie and Chris analyze the 3-0 homestand, the race for the all-important Pacific Division title, and what it will take for the VGK to reach the Western Conference Final and Stanley Cup.

All this and MUCH more on Hockey Knights in Vegas Episode 104: Emil Lilleberg Is a 5-Letter Word for a Cat.

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PK Oyster Bar


This is a newish restaurant at the Commercial Center on E. Sahara. We generally don’t pay much attention to these eateries, since they don’t seem to last too long (except for Lotus of Siam and that has yet reopened more than seven years after the roof collapsed in 2017). What caught our attention was the Manhattan clam chowder on the PK menu, which we rarely see in Las Vegas. A quick search turned up two mentions in LVA, one from way back in 2003, the other not much more recently in 2005.

We first tried the house salad ($8) and steamed clams ($20); the clams came in a choice of white broth or red sauce. We’d never seen clams served in a red sauce, so we opted for the novel preparation. The strong sauce definitely overpowered the delicate clams (but more on that in a bit).

We prefer the red chowder over the white, though being the Advisor, we also tried the white for comparison purposes ($12 each). They both come in a bread bowl with the top cut off and the middle emptied out. You can also get them in a regular bowl, which we should have; both chowders were gloppy enough without the added dough. And frankly, neither was recommendable. More like stews than soups, they were bland and very thick, with way more (undercooked) celery than clams.

Also on the menu are fried shrimp, calamari, oysters, and catfish ($15-$20), five pan roasts ($25-$32), five gumbos ($23-$32), a few po’ boys ($15-$18), and specialties such as jambalaya, etouffée, bouillabaisse, and two pounds of “Voodoo pasta” ($19-$32).

All in all, the salad was the best thing about the meal, with the red sauce that the clams came in a close runner up. Even though it didn’t do the clams any justice, we scarfed the sauce on its own, slopping it up with some of the bread from the bowls, so we didn’t leave hungry. A good thing, since the bill for the salad, clams, two chowders, and a $5 happy hour beer came to just under $62 with tax.

Maybe the best thing about PK’s is the $1.50 oyster special on Wednesdays.

No complaints on this deal. All in all, though, there are better oyster bars around town.

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The biggest loser … and other dirty linen

Ancient casino vizier Steve Wynn finally ran out of luck. He appealed all the way to the Supreme Court to have libel laws reinterpreted in his favor because … well, because he’s special, we guess. Wynn used to fancy himself “the most powerful man in Nevada” and all that absolute power corrupted him absolutely. He got to the point of thinking that he could play hide the salami with Wynn Resorts employees and get away with it. He couldn’t and that was the end of a hitherto spectacular career in casinos.

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