One of my students was given a nice offer at Caesars Atlantic City, based on his play at another Caesars property. He got some nice show-up money, some free hotel nights, some food, and an offer that for every so many Tier Credits (TCs) he earned, he got so much money in free play. I don’t know what the limit was, but it would take well over $1 million in coin-in to max the offer. He asked me to help him figure out the best way to tackle this.
We ruled out 9/6 Jacks or Better in the high limit room because it takes $25 coin-in to earn one TC and regular video poker only takes $10 to earn the same point. I called some players and discovered they have 9/6 Double Double Bonus (98.98%) in $5, $10, and $25 single-line games. That would be a much cheaper way to earn TCs even without the promo, and even more so with. This was his first trip there and if he played more than a million dollars on his first three-day visit, win or lose, there’s a good chance he’ll get nice offers down the road.
The property now offers 0.25% next day bounce back cash (NDB) on regular video poker (0.10% on 9/6 Jacks) and on Thursdays, for two hours, 10x NDB. He asked if he should make any strategy adjustments for that two-hour period.
“Absolutely,” I replied, “I don’t know for sure, but I suspect the casino will be very crowded during that two-hour period — especially in the high limit room. Unless there are nearby vacant machines with the same pay schedule. W-2Gs during those two hours are very expensive.”
While I’ve not played in that casino for more than a decade, I’ve heard getting W-2Gs paid there can take 15 minutes on regular days, and during some promotions, the slot people get so slammed it can take more than an hour. A two-hour juicy promotion is useless if you can’t get on a machine.
I suggested looking for hands where two plays are close in value, but the correct one can get a W-2G and the other one can’t — or at least it’s a lot more difficult to get one.
We used the advanced section of WinPoker to deal us hands where the difference between the best and the second-best play was 50 cents or less for a dollar player. That means $12.50 or less for a $25 player.
Hands such as A♠
Another qualifying hand was
There are other hands to be considered. Once I give you the concept and tell you where to look, you can find them out for yourself if you’re interested.
In Harrah’s Cherokee, the loosest game is $5 NSU Deuces Wild. The “mystery” multiple NDB day goes for 24 hours, not just two. While they don’t make it clear what your multiplier is until you’ve already played, if you assume it’s 2x, you’ll be correct a very high percentage of the time. A 2x multiplier seems to pale in comparison with 10x elsewhere, but the base video poker games are better in Cherokee (if you’re willing and able to play $25 per hand), the base NDB rate is higher, and the promo goes for 24 hours rather than two.
The same “W-2Gs are expensive” philosophy holds during the multiple NDB days. When I get dealt a hand where a second-best play might reduce or eliminate the chances for a W-2G, the first thing I would do is check to see if there is a suitable nearby machine available. If one is, I’ll make the standard play and scoot over if the W-2G (four deuces or a royal flush in this game and denomination) comes home. But if no such machine is available, these are some of the hands I’d consider making the “second-best” play:
- W45 — With a suited deuce four five, it’s a close play whether you play the deuce by itself or deuce four five — and the exact correct play is a bit complicated to figure out. For me during the promo if no backup machine is available, I’m holding all three cards every time.
- A one-deuce perfect 4-card straight from W567-WQJT. It’s a close play whether you hold one card or four — and the exact rules are again a bit complicated — but during this promo with no backup machines available, I’m holding four cards every time.
A now-deceased good friend of mine made up “Annie’s Rule” on these hands. Because she liked getting four deuces so much, she was willing to give up a few pennies in expected value to increase her chances of getting “the ducks.” I guess if she were playing this promotion and thought about it sufficiently, she would use “Bob’s Rule” which values not getting four deuces at times such as these.
- KQ, KJ, or KT with at least two penalties. A straight penalty would be an unpaired card in the range of 9-A, while a flush penalty is a card of the same suit as the K in the range of 3-8. In these hands, without an available spare machine, I’m throwing everything away. It’s only 16,214 to 1 to hit a royal when drawing three cards, while it’s much longer when drawing five cards. Your odds of drawing four deuces after when drawing five new cards are on in 35,673. Not zero, but not likely.
As before, there are other hands I’d play “second best but no jackpot” under these conditions, but now you understand the concept and know where to look, you can find them yourself.
These plays are not limited to NDB conditions. They are worth considering whenever W-2Gs are going to be paid slowly and there are no replacement machines nearby. At some casinos this can be 100% of the time on some machines!
Be sure the right conditions are there before you pull the trigger on one these plays. If jackpots are paid faster (at some casinos you can self pay) or there are ample additional suitable machines, it’s not smart to make any of these second-best plays.
I get the gist of this, and I can read this as a philosophical treatise that frames the exercise of playing video poker in the context of results-given-time-constraints. And all of that is well and good.
There is this nagging echo in the back of my mind, however, that I haven’t thought completely through. It goes something like, “If I step back from the absolute focus on optimal play and adjust it based on time frame and waiting-for-hand pay considerations, which are rough estimates, then that opens a can of mental worms.”
Like, “Should I put a number on deep vein thrombosis costs for sitting at a vp machine and factor that into the equation even though it’s kind of a stretch? In other words, what is deep vein thrombosis (or casino smoke inhalation, for example) going to cost me? And does that belong in the equation, too, since some kind of number can probably be put on it by an expert in the field? Sounds silly on the face of it, but is it?
Maybe it all should be evaluated if you’re going to pull back the focus from optimal play and bring in other considerations.
No, I do not use hallucinogenics, not that there’s anything wrong with that (as Seinfeld might say).
In nsud jackpots are so infrequent it’s almost irrelevant. Use that time to stretch your legs and go to the restroom
In $5 $25 per hand NSud , jackpots are so infrequent it’s almost irrelevant. Use that time to go to the bathroom and stretch your legs and give yourself a 5 minute break
I find it strange that some people believe it to be unusual for someone to use a coupon for a buffet at a decent hotel just because the cost of the buffet is very small compared to their gambling score for the year. I only have two anecdotes to contribute, both of which are true, and one of them involves Bob. Years ago I bought one of Bob’s books and asked him to sign it for me and say I am the second best mathematician that I know. I expected Bob to ask me who is the first. He didn’t. So now I will tell you what I would have answered: “You.” The second involves a close friend of mine who was a realtor and helped me buy some rental properties in the 1970’s and early 1980’s. His primary business was buying houses for cash for below market prices then selling them at retail. Once I noticed that he had a listing for a property for at least triple the local price and at the usual six per cent commission. After it closed, I asked him, whether since he made three times the commission because of the high price of the property, shouldn’t he have only charged maybe three or four per cent. His answer was: “I don’t hate money.” I am with Bob on this one and also my long ago friend who now, sadly, is gone.