Nothing sends those two twin vermin, Kalshi and Polymarket, scuttling to their rat holes like the threat of congressional action. In case you missed it, Sens. John Curtis (R) and Adam Schiff (D) have introduced a bill to get prediction markets the hell out of sports betting. Evidently sensing the seriousness of the moment, Kalshi and Polymarket promptly announced that they were going to put safeguards in place to ban insider trading. This is unlikely to satisfy the Senate’s bipartisan duo (we hope it doesn’t), but it shows how out of control event-contract wagering has become.
Curtis and Schiff might not have had to join forces, had the Commodity Futures Trading Commission been doing its job. But the CFTC’s new boss, the sniveling Michael Selig, has misread his remit, believing his role to be that of an unabashed shill for prediction markets. We hope, of Congress acts, it slaps him silly in the process. Mind you, there’s a long, hard road between introducing a bill and getting it enacted. Even if Curtis and Schiff prevail, their bill would still have to get past Donald Trump‘s veto pen. And with Donald Trump Jr. having a fiduciary interest in both Kalshi AND Polymarket, you might say the White House has a wee bit of a conflict of interest on its hands—even more so when you consider that Truth Social is trying to belly up to the sports-betting hog trough.
Presciently, Curtis’ bill would also head off prediction markets from dabbling in iGaming (DraftKings is already slavering at the idea of offering “event contracts” on card and dice games). Added Schiff, “Sports prediction contracts are sports bets—just with a different name,. And yet, these contracts are currently offered in all 50 states in clear violation of state and federal law. Rather than enforce the law, the CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even promoting their growth.“
Showing that there is no shame among hypocrites, Kalshi had the nerve to claim that the Curtis/Schiff bill would merely incentivize offshore, unregulated prediction markets. As opposed to the shambles we have now? That’s a laugh. Kalshi also whined that Big Gaming is a set of “monopolies,” which is even more of a howler. It claimed to be taking the high road on sports wagering: “Sports trading on regulated prediction markets offer a fairer choice to consumers, with no house that restricts winners and hooks people the more they lose.” And if you believe that, let us tell you about this fine bridge in Brooklyn that we’re selling. Notice that Kalshi can’t denounce its competition without admitting that Big Gaming IS the competition, which is a not-so-tacit confession that prediction markets are, in fact, gambling by another name. Like we’ve been saying all along.
Scum-sucking, bottom-feeding Polymarket and Kalshi have no one to blame but themselves. Their nyah-nyhah, in-your-face strategies have jammed online sports betting into places where it’s not unwanted but downright illegal. And their blatant engagement in insider trading has made a mockery of U.S. national security. When Kalshi is splashing OSB ads all over Utah airwaves, can you blame that profoundly anti-gambling state from doing the right thing and outlawing the practice entirely? Ironically, for a business that wraps itself in the mantle of free markets, event-contract pushers like Polymarket are enraging a number of good and prominent conservatives, such as Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R), reaping what they have promiscuously sown. And one worry those conservatives (but not Cox) have is that the CFTC is opening a back door to federal oversight of gambling proper. It’s not that big a leap of logic.
Nor is the public fooled. A recent poll showed that 61% of respondents think prediction markets are, in fact, gambling. Kalshi, Polymarket, etc. have pushed their luck and now they’re in for a concerted ass-kicking, both from Congress and from individual states. We hope it’s a painful and permanent one.
Another detractor of prediction markets is the dean of Nevada‘s congressional delegation, Rep. Dina Titus (D). Although her HR 7477 to crack down on event contracts hasn’t taken off yet (no cosponsors) that didn’t stop her from speaking bluntly about it … and about sundry other gambling-related topics. It was 20 minutes well spent.
Faint-hearted. That would be the term for New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D). After talking tough on the baneful issue of smoking in Atlantic City casinos, Sherrill has blatantly lost her gumption. Ever since being elected, and with a strong mandate at that, she’s gone all squishy-soft on the issue, losing her voice. Her latest gambit is to say that it’s up to the Lege. In other words, non-smokers great white hope is proving to be a fraud.
Don’t piss on us and say that it’s raining, Mikie. She knows damn well that the Garden State Legislature has had years to tackle the issue and can’t accomplish jack shit without gubernatorial pressure. In fact, by saying solons should “get to work” on the vexatious issue, Sherrill opens the door to a reaffirmation of Atlantic City’s noxious and unhealthy practice. By chickening out on her long-suffering constituents, Sherrill qualifies for S&G‘s first Profiles in Cowardice recognition of the year: a dubious feat. Fewer than 10% of Americans still smoke cigarettes. Thanks a lot, Sherrill, for fucking over 90% of the public to palliate Big Gaming. For shame.