Tag: Bob Dancer

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Speeding Away

Bob Dancer

I was using Lyft to get to the airport.  This was a quick business trip while Bonnie stayed home. If I expect to do a lot of walking at my destination, I usually take my walker — and Bonnie and I both use it. This time, though, I was alone and wasn’t expecting a lot of walking, so I left it at home.

Sitting in the back seat, I saw a sign telling me the driver has mostly received perfect (5 out of 5) ratings and that my comfort and safety were his highest concern. And, of course, tips are greatly appreciated. I didn’t mind the sign. The driver is running a business and doing what he can to improve his profits. If his sign accomplishes that, good for him.

As I exited the car at the airport, before I was completely out of the back seat, the Lyft driver started to pull away. It was a compact car and I’m six feet tall, and it takes me a while to exit in that situation. The right rear tire clipped my right heel. When it happened, I didn’t know if I was injured or not — but I was angry that the driver didn’t wait until I was completely out of the car. I look my age, more or less, and it’s not breaking news that seniors are slower and sometimes clumsier at doing things than younger people are. 

The driver stopped immediately. I yelled at him and he kind of looked at me and shrugged. I might have slammed the door a bit more forcefully than I usually do and went into the terminal. I didn’t notice any pain as I walked.

I figured this was a one-off mistake on his part and that he didn’t mean to injure me. There had been minimal conversation in the car and nothing for him to get mad at me about. I surmised that if I reported this, he would suffer consequences. Having a “black mark” on your record is never a good thing.

I debated with myself whether or not to report it. Was his error big enough to warrant him getting a black mark? Rightly or wrongly, I decided it was. Had he immediately jumped out of his seat to make sure I was okay, and apologized profusely along the way, I might have decided differently. But his indifferent “s@%t happens” shrug struck me the wrong way. He seemed to be in a rush to get to his next fare and my welfare was my own problem.

Although I didn’t seem to be injured immediately, if some lingering pain showed up, I wanted a record of the incident.

I didn’t have a lot of time before my flight took off, so I waited until I started to get texts when I was near my destination airport before I did anything. Lyft sent its standard: “Did you enjoy your ride? Rate Antonio’s performance from one to five. How much of a tip do you want to leave Antonio?”

There was a space to write an extended comment, so I wrote that he started to drive away before I was totally out of the car and his tire clipped my foot.

Lyft offered me the chance to chat via text with one of their reps to get this problem resolved. I could have spoken to a live person had I wanted to, but I was still on a full plane and would be for a few more minutes, so I opted for the text chat.

I explained what had happened. I inferred that the rep was female, although I could be wrong. She asked me if I was injured? “I’m not sure,” I replied. “I’m not in pain now, but right now I’m still on the plane. I’ll know more after I walk to baggage claim, and I’ll know even more tomorrow.”

She told me she had contacted the driver and he and I would be separated from him in the system — presumably meaning he would never be my driver again. I don’t know if what other repercussions, if any, Antonio faced. 

She kept pressing me to declare myself okay — and I kept demurring. “I need more time.” She gave me a deadline to keep texting or the claim would be declared resolved, I waited until a minute before the deadline and said I still needed more time.

By now, a different rep had been assigned to the case and needed time to orient herself with the situation. That agent never got back to me.

The next day I received a text message from a lawyer representing Lyft. Apparently, a claim had been opened, and she was there to find out the status of my injuries — and whether or not I was going to sue.

I decided to wait for a few days to see if any lingering pain existed. So I temporized with, “I’m consulting a lawyer about this. I will give him your contact number and the claim number.”

As I write this, it is a week after the incident, and I have no physical pain whatsoever from the incident. “No harm no foul,” as announcers are fond of saying in basketball.

Except there was a foul. Antonio drove away too hastily and I could have been hurt – or worse. The fact that I wasn’t was fortunate.

But since I’m not injured, I’m not going to sue either Antonio or Lyft. That sounds like way too much hassle and since I wasn’t hurt badly, a judge (or jury) wouldn’t likely award me very much, if anything. I could fake injury, of course, but that’s not my style at this time of my life. Back when I was “hurting for money,” possibly I would have used some trickery in order to get some cash, I’m not sure, but not today.

Lyft, of course, is ultimately responsible, but this was a freak incident that could have just as easily happened to Uber or any cab company. So, I’m still going to utilize Lyft to get back and forth to the airport. But I probably will start saying, “I’m slow” when I exit the back seats of cars. 

Ironically, had I taken my walker with me this never would have happened. The driver would have been forced to get the walker out of his trunk (or wherever he had stored it), and by that time I would have been well out of the car.

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Career Path — Part II of II

Bob Dancer

In last week’s blog, in a semi-fictionalized story, I had a conversation with a recent college graduate, “John,” about whether he should become a professional gambler. I think I should have given him the “Stan and Pearl” test to see if he understands the basics of gambling.

I first discussed Stan and Pearl in my Million Dollar Video Poker autobiography. (Actually, it was my first autobiography. I’m considering penning Million Dollar Video Poker: The Next 25 Years if the new tax law provides me with a lot more free time than I currently have. We’ll see.) Every student who attended one of my “Secrets of a Video Poker Winner” classes has heard this story, and I’ve written about it in this blog at least a few times — but not for several years, and some of my readers haven’t been exposed to it before.

Most people believe the Stan and Pearl problem is very easy. And it is. Surprisingly, however, a high percentage of people get the wrong answer the first time they hear the problem. People who correctly understand what successful gambling is all about get it correct every time. People who don’t understand successful gambling, but think they do, often get it wrong.

Stan and Pearl are imaginary video poker playing friends. They play video poker with a level of skill and discipline far beyond what is found in most players. 

The game they play perfectly is $1 9/6 Jacks or Better — without a slot club, returning a bit more than 99.5%. 

Stan plays 10 hands every day and then, win or lose, stops. 

Pearl plays 10 hands every day. If she has hit a flush or higher (paying 30 coins or more), she plays another five hands (costing 25 coins). If in those five hands she connects on another flush or higher, she plays another five hands. Eventually she’ll hit a five-hand dry spell and will quit for the day.

Stan stops and Pearl parlays. “Parlay” is a term with quite a few different definitions. Here I’m using it to mean she bets with her winnings.

The question is: Assuming Stan and Pearl follow their strategy perfectly, who is likely to have the better cumulative score at the end of one year?

Don’t let the genders of these imaginary friends influence your decision. The names were selected for wordplay reasons. I could just as easily have made them both men —Stan and Paul — or both women —Stella and Pearl. 

When I teach it in class, I ask the students to raise their hands if they think Pearl will have the better score. I then ask the people with a hand up why they chose Pearl. The answers typically include:

“She’s riding a hot streak — betting more when she’s winning.”

“When she’s not winning anymore, she stops.”

“She’s playing more, giving her a better chance at getting lucky.”

Pretty soon we exhaust the reasons why people select Pearl. I then announce that anyone who voted for Pearl having the better annual score has no clue about what the winning process is all about.

I then ask if someone who voted for Stan having the better score will explain why. Almost always I get the correct answer: 9/6 Jacks or Better without a slot club is a game where the house has a half-percent advantage. Since Pearl plays more when the house has the advantage, she will lose more than Stan, on average. Since Stan plays less of this negative game, he will lose less. They will both be net losers, but Stan will lose less.

I then give them the second version of the puzzle. This time they are playing the same 99.5% game but there is now a 1% cash slot club. Stan still plays 10 hands per day, and Pearl still plays at least 10 hands, and more if she hits a flush or higher. Now who likely has the better score?

Most of the class correctly vote for Pearl this time. With the slot club, the player has a half-percent advantage over the house and now whoever bets more has the better chance of coming out ahead.

In summary, if you have the advantage, over time you’ll likely come out ahead. If you don’t, you likely won’t.

The reason I’m bringing this story out again is that in the scenario I outlined in last week’s blog, I had a discussion with a recent college graduate about whether he could pursue a life as a professional gambler. 

I wished I had given him this test. Anyone wishing to succeed at gambling should get the right answer for the right reason.

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Career Path — Part I of II

Bob Dancer

Today’s story starts off completely true about a recent meeting I had. About half-way through, I’ll veer into fiction because I didn’t think of the right things to ask until after the meeting was over. So, I’m going to list the questions I should have asked. And I won’t presume to give his answers to these questions, although I will forward the article to him and maybe we’ll continue the conversation later. 

A valued decades-long friend has a son, John, who just graduated from the University of Nevada Reno. John got a job as a slot analyst at a large Reno casino, and the father asked me if I would speak to John about the gambling world. The father thinks, probably correctly, the son has stopped listening to him. So Bonnie, John, and I had a dinner meeting.

John told me his girlfriend was a senior at UNR, and he hoped to marry her. For the next year, at least, he was planning to stay in Reno, but after that, he could go anywhere.

The first “casino business” thing we spoke about was the recent tax bill, the uncertainty about whether it will be modified, and my plans to give up gambling effective January 1 should it not be modified. (Should this be news to the reader, I discussed it at length in this column about a month ago.)

At this point, John told me that if I wanted to pass along my knowledge before I retire with all my secrets, he’s willing to be my student. And starting with the next question, things get fictionalized.

I asked him, “Is being a professional gambler a lifelong dream of yours? Or maybe you’ve heard that I’ve been successful and you just want to be rich?”

John gave a sheepish grin and said maybe a bit of both.

“How long has being a professional gambler been a dream of yours — and what have you done to prepare yourself for such a career?”

He admitted that it hasn’t been a dream that’s been on the front burner, and he really hasn’t done anything to prepare himself.

“How much bankroll do you have? What I mean is how much money could you lose without it being a major burden on your way of life?”

John said he had essentially no bankroll and he had some student loans that would need to be addressed soon.

“The complete answer is pretty long, but the bottom line is you’re not a very good candidate to be a professional gambler.”

I then spelled out my pretty long answer.

First, you need a bankroll. Just starting a marriage and bringing along student debt for at least one of you is not the best time to be saving 40% of your income for future gambling purposes.

Speaking of marriage, if being a professional gambler hasn’t been discussed with your bride to be, it’s possible that it could be a showstopper with respect to whom she wants to marry. If not specifically for her, maybe her family.

Second, being a professional gambler is a way of thinking. Most of us were playing strategic games for a long time before we gambled at it. Were you good at chess, scrabble, Minecraft, or any other games where strategy is a prerequisite?

Third, I’m leaving gambling because I think I can’t make a living at it under the new tax law. Do you think following my methods can lead you to success when I think those methods won’t work anymore under the new law? I could be wrong, of course, but are you willing to bet you know more than I do about this?

Fourth, succeeding at video poker is a lifelong process. I’ve been playing more than 30 years and am still learning things. This is not a profession where you can read a couple of books and be set for life. Are you a lifelong student sort of guy?

Fifth, the best professional gamblers are much smarter than average. Genius isn’t required, but being smarter than the casino employees who decide which games and which promotions to offer is useful. Does this describe you? 

Sixth, successful professional gamblers often change games they play if situations change. Video poker itself is reasonably well understood by most casino slot directors and few casinos offer lucrative opportunities for players. I’ve found some, but who knows how long they will last and who knows how long my welcome will last. It’s very possible that in ten years the successful video poker players of today will be playing gambling games that haven’t even been invented yet.

I’ll leave this fictionalized conversation off for now, although I’ll continue it in next week’s blog, and just surmise that John’s last response was a polite, “Well, Bob, you’ve given me a lot to think about.”

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Playing with a Partner

Bob Dancer

I first started playing “big” in 1994 — which at the time meant playing $5 9/6 Jacks or Better with a 0.67% cash slot club, and juicy monthly promotions at Treasure Island and the Mirage. Other casinos had similar situations (Caesars Palace, Desert Inn, MGM Grand and the Golden Nugget, among others), but I didn’t find out about those until later.

I was 47 years old at the time — a fairly typical age for the customers of those casinos. For the most part, people in their 20s and 30s were still trying to buy a house and find a way to send the kids to college, so they generally didn’t have the funds necessary to gamble for sizeable stakes. 

I was engaged to Shirley and married her later that year. A significant number of the participants in these events were married and both spouses played — and the single ones were probably 80% men and 20% women.

I played these games and promotions for the next seven years — getting to know many of the players who played these promotions at most of the casinos and gradually increasing the denominations of the games I played. The monthly promotions were often on weekends, and there were more than four casinos having regular promotions, so we’d often double dip or triple dip the same weekend.

For a period of three or four years, enough casinos were having generous promotions that if you could afford to play $5 single line games and could play 9/6 Jacks or Better competently, you did very well. Shirley and I remained as frugal as when we didn’t have a lot of money, so our gambling bankroll grew significantly. This type of bonanza no longer exists. There are games you can beat, but not a lot of them.

I got to know two players, “Tom” and “Jerry,” —  one of whom died several years ago and the other I haven’t seen for a few years and may or may not still be an active player. They were gambling partners — not in any romantic sense but in a business sense. There were also teams, where one person put up the money and had several players playing progressives with the common bankroll, but this wasn’t the same as that.

Tom and Jerry both had been successful gamblers for years and both had a gambling bankroll. They just shared results, so if one hit a $100,000 royal flush, that windfall was split two ways. Same principle if one had a big loss.

I had several discussions with them, both separately and together, about what makes a good partner. First was absolute trust. Second, each had to bring something to the relationship the other one lacked. In this particular case, Tom was successful at poker and blackjack, in addition to video poker, while Jerry played progressives and flew all over the country to casino openings. 

A third feature was analytical skills. There were (and still are) a lot of positive gambling opportunities. Discussions needed to be had as to which were the best ones to attack — and how. Each promotion is a little bit different than the others, and sometimes there were arguments about which ones to approach and how. For me, this is a major benefit of having a trusted partner. I wouldn’t want a yes man. I would want someone who could challenge my ideas.

There were far fewer casinos nationwide then than there are now, and most of the brand-new ones had problems when they opened — which could be exploited by the knowledgeable player. Jerry liked doing that and was successful at it.

For me, Shirley was a gambling partner, of sorts, when we were married — but I was by far the driving force behind the decisions. She didn’t really like gambling very much, although she liked dancing at the events. When we became successful enough that she could quit, she happily did. That was a major contributing factor to us eventually getting divorced in 2012 — although her desire to move away from Las Vegas and her aversion to cigarette smoke were the dominant reasons for the breakup. I’d spend 60 hours a week on gambling-related activities, and she fended for herself. We just didn’t do enough things together.

After my marriage to Shirley broke up and I hooked up with Bonnie, I knew I had to do marriage differently for it to survive. Bonnie is a partner in life, but not so much a partner in gambling. She will never be a competent video poker player, but I play on both her card and mine, where allowed, and we go to out-of-town casino events together. 

We were in square dancing together for years, but when the pandemic shut things down, Bonnie decided she didn’t want to do that anymore. We might pick that back up if the recent tax bill remains unchanged and I quit gambling in a few months.

At one point along the way, I decided to have a gambling partner of my own. I’ll tell you about it, but not today.

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Does It Follow?

Bob Dancer

Assume you’re trying to figure out which casino to frequent in Las Vegas. You’ve heard that I’ve played at the South Point and have done well there. Does it follow that the South Point is a good place for you to play?

Some factors to consider:

  1. What game(s) do I play there? 
  2. Is that (are those) game(s) available there at stakes that are comfortable for you?
  3. Do you know that (those) game(s) well?
  4. Do I limit my play there to cases when certain promotions are going on? If so, is that promotion going to be in effect when you wish to play?
  5. I am a senior, and South Point has senior days. Do I play on senior days and are you a senior?
  6. For the right promotion, I can play many hours starting at any time of the day or night. Are you comfortable with playing any shift depending on promotions?
  7. Are you eligible to play there? South Point, like most or maybe all casinos, has restricted certain players from getting mailers, and others from even getting slot club points. Are you such a person?
  8. I play there as a local. Out-of-towners receive a different package of benefits than locals do. Are you a local?
  9. Do you like the South Point? Liking any particular casino is an individual preference. If you don’t like the South Point for any reason, it’s probably not a good choice for you.
  10. The casino has removed several of its loosest games recently. There are still plenty of good games — though not as many as there used to be. Is the game you want to play still there?
  11. If I lose several thousand dollars playing a promotion where I believe I have the advantage, it’s not really a big deal to me. Are you that sanguine about losses?
  12. The promotions at the South Point are much less generous than they were a few years ago. How does this affect the profitability of playing there?
  13. They used to have a better selection of persistence slots than they now. While this affects the casino’s desirability from my point of view, if you’re not a slot player, this is irrelevant to you. 
  14. The casino recently slashed the cash back rate in half for video poker players — going from 0.30% to 0.15%. Does this change how much, if at all, I still play there?

I could extend this list, but you get the point. Even knowing I play there, there are things about my play that you do not know. I don’t publish exactly how much I play there, on which games, and why I’m playing certain promotions and avoiding others.

What prompted me to write this blog is that I recently read “You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake,” by Olivier Sibony. This book uses behavioral economics concepts previously explored by authors such as Daniel Kahneman, Dan Ariely, Amos Tversky, Richard Thayler and others to examine mistakes made in business and how to avoid them.

One of the concepts that he spends a lot of time on is that it rarely makes sense to exactly copy what somebody else is doing. Circumstances are always a bit different when you’re trying to follow somebody else’s footprints. It’s usually better to do something similar, yet different.

While it was addressed in terms of Fortune 500 companies, I suggest it applies to video poker players as well — where each of us tries to manage our own gambling business. Those who take it beyond the strictly recreational level make decisions and actions aimed at trying to succeed.

So how should knowing thatI play at the South Point affect your decisions? Probably as a “check it out” type of deal. Even if you aren’t trying to copy me exactly, that fact that I find it a worthwhile place to play (or at least I did before they cut the slot club cash back rate) should indicate that there’s probably something worthwhile there.

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Downgrade at Four Queens

Bob Dancer

For decades, the Four Queens in downtown Las Vegas has had dollar single-line 10-7 Double Bonus. A few years ago, they cut the slot club in half on those games (leaving players with a 0.16% cash and 0.3125% comps), along with monthly mailers and promotions. Still, with a game that started at 100.17%, it was a decent play for dollars. It was the only single-line dollar game I still played.

A few months ago, they downgraded the last four 10/7 machines to unplayable pay schedules. The highest returning video poker games they have now are single-line quarter and fifty cent 9/6 Jacks or Better — with full slot club benefits meaning 0.3125% cash back and 0.625% comps. They still have mailers. They still have promotions. There are some advantage slots there and sometimes I can find one that is playable.

The thing is, I’ve been playing games for $25 up to $125 a hand for a long time. Switching to a game that requires $1.25 or $2.50 a hand to play really doesn’t float my boat. I’ve heard it said that for gambling to be interesting, it has to hurt when you lose. There is no reasonable loss at fifty cents or lower which will affect my bankroll or well-being at all. 

So, will I still play there? 

Yes, but not for the reason you might think.

At the current time, Bonnie and I together have more than $6,000 comp dollars, which can be used at either Four Queens or Binion’s, located catty-corner across Fremont from the Four Queens. Magnolia’s is a decent-enough coffee shop for when I’m downtown, and Hugo’s Cellar is an excellent old-fashioned steak house where we enjoy taking friends. There are a few other food options and they are building more.

If I quit playing for six months (or possibly it’s for one year), our comp dollars will evaporate. But so long as I continue to ti give them some play, the comp dollars will last until we use them up. So, I will continue to play some.

This summer, for example, you could play 400 points ($3,200 coin-in on video poker; half that on slots), and get $40 in free play. You could do this up to four times at Four Queens each month, and four times at Binion’s, where the best game is $1 8/5 Bonus. This is a 1.25% promotion, which is decent, but it’s for low stakes. I earned some of the bonuses for Bonnie and me in June and July, but not all four at each place. In August, I’ll be out of town for almost half the month, so I’ll probably do similarly.

Although we currently each earn $80 per month in free play, that amount could be reduced or even disappear because I’m not playing as much as I used to when they had dollar 10/7. 

This is the one casino where I can say I’m not playing for the money — I’m playing for the comps. And it’s not so much to earn additional comps (which I will do to a minor degree), but mainly to retain the comps I earned previously.

Even if I give up gambling at the first of the year because of the new tax law, I’ll retain this play until the comps are gone — which could easily take three or more years.

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A Different Sort of Advantage Play

Bob Dancer

When I’m in Las Vegas, I usually drive my own car to go places. Sometimes, though, using rideshare is convenient. Like going to or from the airport. Or taking me to physical therapy appointments when I’m recovering from one surgery or another and I’m not supposed to drive. While I do enjoy a glass of wine with dinner periodically, I haven’t been too impaired to drive safely since my college days more than 50 years ago, but I suppose it could happen again.

I have both Lyft and Uber accounts set up, but in 20 trials, Lyft was always cheaper than Uber. So, I only use Lyft. It’s possible that Uber might be cheaper than Lyft some of the time. Since many of the Lyft drivers also drive for Uber, I’m assuming the experience itself is pretty similar between the two companies.

Bonnie and I go to Reno 20 times a year or so. While most of our play is at one casino, we do play at others there and so earn free play. We schedule our trips, among other parameters, so we can pick up any free play we’re offered.

If we have three or more casinos to visit during a trip (or if Lake Tahoe, which is 60 miles away, has one of those casinos), we’ll rent a car. But if it’s only two casinos, we’ll take the shuttle from the airport to get to the first casino offering free play, and Lyft our way to the casino where we’ll stay. While we could take a shuttle back to the airport and get another shuttle from the airport to the second casino, that can easily take an hour or so and Lyft is much quicker.

On one occasion, we did this in reverse. That is, we took the shuttle to the main casino we were going to stay for the trip and used Lyft to take us to the second. From there, we would take a shuttle to the airport. 

On this occasion, I brought most of our luggage down to the video poker machine I play, and was waiting for Bonnie to join me. She was still in the room and was going to meet me at the machine. I opened up the Lyft app to check how much it would be to go to the second casino and found out it was $12.50. I didn’t order the ride (Bonnie wasn’t there yet), but I left the app open. Five minutes later, the price was $9.75, and ten minutes after that it was $18.

While I knew rideshare pricing is based on supply and demand, I didn’t realize it jumped around so much so quickly.

When Bonnie arrived, the price was $14.35. I waited a few minutes and it dropped to $10.95, which I took. That wasn’t the lowest price of the day, but if I took the earlier price of $9.75, the ride would have come and gone before Bonnie got there. And leaving Bonnie behind wasn’t an option.

But $10.95 was a relatively low price. It was much lower than $18 and was the second-lowest price I’d seen in the last half hour. It’s possible the next price would be $8.35, but it’s also possible it would be $17.70. I have to pull the trigger some time, so I pick a price that is relatively low.

It’s possible that the first price I see will be the lowest one for quite some time. I won’t get that price, usually. Unless we’ve taken the same route at the same time of day several times, we don’t know a good price from a bad price. So we almost always get a few prices and pick a relatively low one.

Now, Bonnie and I make a game out of which Lyft price to take. If the price drops when we’re ready to go, we jump on it and feel good about saving $1.25 or so. Never mind that we might be up or down $40,000 for the trip.

In Las Vegas when we take Lyft from the airport home, I expect the price to be rather stable. During normal business hours, there are always a lot of people wanting to use Lyft to get away from the airport. The last time we took it, the price was $19.99, and it stayed that way for almost ten minutes. Finally, it dropped all the way to $19.85. I took it. 

When I “bragged” to Bonnie about saving a whole 14 cents, we both laughed. This time, what we saved was essentially zero. But doing this over and over again, we’ll get lower prices in total than if we blindly just take the first one.

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Crying Over Spilt Milk

Bob Dancer

The new tax law was signed on July 4, 2025. The gambling provisions have little effect on recreational gamblers but are career-endingly serious for professional gamblers. The Gambling with an Edge podcast with Russell Fox about this new tax law was posted July 16, and you can find it on YouTube or in several other places.

There are several possibilities that this law could be changed before January 1, 2026 — and we won’t know for some time if any of these possibilities will come in.  While Richard Munchkin expressed optimism in the podcast about one of these avenues for changing the law coming to fruition before January 1, I’m less sanguine about it. I’m preparing for my gambling life as I know it to be over in a few months.

For those unaware of how punitive this new law is for professional gamblers, consider two recent years of mine. In both years my W-2Gs added up to about $6 million. I’m playing high denominations games with a small edge. In one year, my gambling score was -$150,000 and in the other, +$200,000. I have non-gambling income as well. I also record my gambling expenses, which I’m entitled to do as I file as a professional gambler.

In the first year, since I lost money gambling, I paid no taxes on the gambling part of my income. In the second year, I paid quite a bit. Nobody likes to pay taxes, certainly including me, but it’s the price we pay to live in this country.

Under the new law, I would only be able to deduce $5.4 million in gambling losses in each year. (W-2Gs are considered proven gambling wins by the IRS and you can deduct up to 90% of them as losses.) That means in both years (one I lost $150,000 and the other I won $200,000), I would owe taxes on $600,000 of phantom income, in addition to the taxes on my other income. Minus 90% of my gambling expenses, of course, but those came nowhere near $600,000.)

It won’t take many of these tax years to wipe me out completely.

Some people manage to avoid paying taxes by simply lying about how much they make. When you get W-2Gs, though, you can’t lie about them. They go to the IRS and your tax return should claim at least the total dollar amount on the W-2Gs as in on the IRS computers, or they will come after you. In the past, it was always safe to add a few hundred thousand dollars to the W-2G total (because they would all be written off), but starting next year, adding $200,000 to this total will increase the amount you have to pay taxes on by $20,000.

Playing single-line quarters and avoiding W-2Gs altogether is not something I’m interested in. I don’t gamble “for fun.” I gamble for profit and the profit you can make playing games this small are smaller than I wish to seek. I know some of my readers take this route, and I’m not putting them down in any respect, but it’s not the life I want for me.

I’m both planning on exploiting the games I find for the last five months of this year, and planning on what I’m going to do with the rest of my life. This second kind of planning is both more difficult and not as far along as my plans for the rest of this year. It may well include stopping writing this blog. Most of the blog-posts here are inspired by something happening in a casino. If I won’t be in casinos, I’ll simply run out of new things to say. I already repeat myself more than some of you like. 

I’ve considered stiffing casinos on my way out the door on December 31, but have decided against it. While the gambling law might not change prior to 2026, there are also possibilities it could change in mid-2026 or later and I want to keep casino doors open to me should that happen. Stopping playing because of the tax law is easy for casino to understand. If they tolerated my action before, they will probably welcome me back. Taking front money and then not playing (so as to maximize my short-term profits on the way out the door) is much harder for casinos to forgive. So, I won’t do it.

One thing I won’t do is to lie around and cry over opportunities lost. I’ve had a longer and more successful gambling career than most, and if it ends in five months, so be it. I’ve saved enough to be set (unless the Doomsday Clock actually strikes twelve, which is definitely possible), so Bonnie and I will make the best of the time we have left together.

And, of course, I will hope the law gets changed soon. If it does, I plan to be ready to go in 2026 right where leave off on in 2025.

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Playing for Second Best

Bob Dancer

One of my students was given a nice offer at Caesars Atlantic City, based on his play at another Caesars property. He got some nice show-up money, some free hotel nights, some food, and an offer that for every so many Tier Credits (TCs) he earned, he got so much money in free play. I don’t know what the limit was, but it would take well over $1 million in coin-in to max the offer. He asked me to help him figure out the best way to tackle this.

We ruled out 9/6 Jacks or Better in the high limit room because it takes $25 coin-in to earn one TC and regular video poker only takes $10 to earn the same point. I called some players and discovered they have 9/6 Double Double Bonus (98.98%) in $5, $10, and $25 single-line games. That would be a much cheaper way to earn TCs even without the promo, and even more so with. This was his first trip there and if he played more than a million dollars on his first three-day visit, win or lose, there’s a good chance he’ll get nice offers down the road.

The property now offers 0.25% next day bounce back cash (NDB) on regular video poker (0.10% on 9/6 Jacks) and on Thursdays, for two hours, 10x NDB. He asked if he should make any strategy adjustments for that two-hour period.

“Absolutely,” I replied, “I don’t know for sure, but I suspect the casino will be very crowded during that two-hour period — especially in the high limit room. Unless there are nearby vacant machines with the same pay schedule. W-2Gs during those two hours are very expensive.”

While I’ve not played in that casino for more than a decade, I’ve heard getting W-2Gs paid there can take 15 minutes on regular days, and during some promotions, the slot people get so slammed it can take more than an hour. A two-hour juicy promotion is useless if you can’t get on a machine.

I suggested looking for hands where two plays are close in value, but the correct one can get a W-2G and the other one can’t — or at least it’s a lot more difficult to get one.

We used the advanced section of WinPoker to deal us hands where the difference between the best and the second-best play was 50 cents or less for a dollar player. That means $12.50 or less for a $25 player.

Hands such as A♠ J♥ T♠ 7♦ 4♠ popped up. Holding the bare ace is the best play by 3.3 cents for the five-coin dollar player. (The numbers I quote here will be for the dollar player. If you’re playing a $5, $10, or $25 machine, multiply the number by 5, 10, or 25 accordingly.) Holding AJ instead of the bare ace reduces your chance of getting a W-2G on this hand by about 50%. Is 3.3¢ a cheap price to pay for such a reduction? To my mind, yes.

Another qualifying hand was A♦ K♦ J♣ T♥ 8♠. Holding the AK gives you three chances out of 16,215 getting a W-2G. (On a $25 machine, the royal, four aces, and four kings each get you a handpay).  Holding AKJT eliminates that chance altogether. It costs you 4.3¢ to make such a play. It takes some courage to pull the trigger on this because while one of the possible jackpots was “only” four kings, with the other two W-2Gs you’re giving up the possibilities of receiving a royal flush and four aces — hands DDB players dream about. Still, getting those hands was taken into consideration when we computed it was a 4.3¢ difference in EV.

There are other hands to be considered. Once I give you the concept and tell you where to look, you can find them out for yourself if you’re interested.

In Harrah’s Cherokee, the loosest game is $5 NSU Deuces Wild. The “mystery” multiple NDB day goes for 24 hours, not just two. While they don’t make it clear what your multiplier is until you’ve already played, if you assume it’s 2x, you’ll be correct a very high percentage of the time. A 2x multiplier seems to pale in comparison with 10x elsewhere, but the base video poker games are better in Cherokee (if you’re willing and able to play $25 per hand), the base NDB rate is higher, and the promo goes for 24 hours rather than two.

The same “W-2Gs are expensive” philosophy holds during the multiple NDB days. When I get dealt a hand where a second-best play might reduce or eliminate the chances for a W-2G, the first thing I would do is check to see if there is a suitable nearby machine available. If one is, I’ll make the standard play and scoot over if the W-2G (four deuces or a royal flush in this game and denomination) comes home. But if no such machine is available, these are some of the hands I’d consider making the “second-best” play:

  1. W45 — With a suited deuce four five, it’s a close play whether you play the deuce by itself or deuce four five — and the exact correct play is a bit complicated to figure out. For me during the promo if no backup machine is available, I’m holding all three cards every time.
  2. A one-deuce perfect 4-card straight from W567-WQJT. It’s a close play whether you hold one card or four — and the exact rules are again a bit complicated — but during this promo with no backup machines available, I’m holding four cards every time.

A now-deceased good friend of mine made up “Annie’s Rule” on these hands.  Because she liked getting four deuces so much, she was willing to give up a few pennies in expected value to increase her chances of getting “the ducks.” I guess if she were playing this promotion and thought about it sufficiently, she would use “Bob’s Rule” which values not getting four deuces at times such as these.

  1. KQ, KJ, or KT with at least two penalties. A straight penalty would be an unpaired card in the range of 9-A, while a flush penalty is a card of the same suit as the K in the range of 3-8. In these hands, without an available spare machine, I’m throwing everything away. It’s only 16,214 to 1 to hit a royal when drawing three cards, while it’s much longer when drawing five cards.  Your odds of drawing four deuces after when drawing five new cards are on in 35,673. Not zero, but not likely.

As before, there are other hands I’d play “second best but no jackpot” under these conditions, but now you understand the concept and know where to look, you can find them yourself.

These plays are not limited to NDB conditions. They are worth considering whenever W-2Gs are going to be paid slowly and there are no replacement machines nearby. At some casinos this can be 100% of the time on some machines!

Be sure the right conditions are there before you pull the trigger on one these plays. If jackpots are paid faster (at some casinos you can self pay) or there are ample additional suitable machines, it’s not smart to make any of these second-best plays.

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Response to a Reader

Bob Dancer

I posted not so long ago that I lost about $150,000 gambling in 2024. In a later blog I remarked that using a coupon for a breakfast buffet at the South Point, incurring a $2 tip, was a good value. A reader, who posts under the name of “Mike,” in separate posts, called me out for the size of the tip and commented that after losing $150,000 in a year, worrying about spending a few dollars on a meal seemed ironic to him.  I took his posts as gentle teasing, but decided to respond.

On the matter of tipping, all I will say is that I generally tip modestly. If a buffet server only brings drinks, I do not tip the same as if they take and serve the food order as well. Everybody has their own rules for tipping and that’s how I do it. You can tease me about it if you want, but I’m unlikely to change. 

But finding it ironic that I was able to lose $150,000 and still “count pennies” in a different situation means Mike really doesn’t understand my methods.

Before calendar year 2024 began, I had every expectation that I would have a nice score during that year. The previous year was quite good, and I had a number of “good plays” in out-of-town casinos that I expected to be profitable. In the 32 tax years between 1993 and 2024 inclusive, I’ve had a positive score 26 of the 32 years. If I start having negative years back-to-back-to-back, I’ll conclude that I’ve lost my touch. There’s no doubt that I make more mistakes now than when I was younger, and the games are definitely tighter, but I still have enough skill and moxie to succeed. For how much longer this will be true, I don’t know. 

Author’s note: the previous sentence was written before I had any idea the new tax bill would drastically change things for gamblers. It is very possible I am near the end of my gambling days, not because of lack of success but because of the crippling tax law that is soon to be in effect.

Every day I gambled in 2024, possibly 280 or so, I was playing situations, both video poker and slots and a minor-yet-important amount of sports betting, where I believed I had the edge, all things considered. I managed my sleep as best I could, so I was at my best when I played. Every hand was played as well as I could (although undoubtedly, I made more mistakes than I used to.)

Frugal decisions have always been part of my methodology — whether I was ahead or behind for the day, week, or year. If I can eat healthily at comped restaurants, I do. If I can find nothing suitable to eat (which is true at some places), I’ll use real cash money to eat elsewhere.

I studied the mailers at the casinos I frequent so I could be at the place with the highest return. Every casino has at least something going on every day, but some days of the week or month are juicier than the others. Usually, the rules weren’t in the mailers, so I needed to make educated guesses some of the time. Sometimes I guessed wrong. Sometimes what was offered by the mailers wasn’t exactly how things turned out. Usually, I didn’t complain about this. After all, I’m a long-term winner at many of these places and complaining when everything doesn’t go my way is probably not the best way to keep my welcome.

The actual score of -$150,000 was just where it happened to be when the end of the year came along. It implies an average monthly loss of $12,500, but my monthly scores were never near that. I had winning months and a gruesome weekend where I lost $45,000. My low-point was at -$180,000 but I hit a $40,000 royal flush in late December to pull me back to “only” -$150,000. 

At the start of 2025, I was optimistic about having a good year. A “one in a row” bad year doesn’t mean the next year will be bad as well. Fortunately, on January 2, 2025, I connected on a $20,000 royal flush along with three additional jackpots of $5,000 each, and this has been a good year so far through the first six-and-a-half months.

I understand most of my readers have smaller gambling bankrolls than I do, and the ability to sustain a $150,000 annual loss and basically shrug it off is something that is never going to happen to them. Still, all of us go through swings. If I’m going to write honestly about my gambling career, which I believe is what most of my readers want me to do, I’m going to have to use real numbers.

My decision to use the buffet coupon and eat breakfast for the price of a modest tip was not a one-off event for me by any means. My annual score, whether this year, last year, or any other year, had nothing to do with that decision. Buffets are excellent places to eat healthily if you’re good at resisting the unhealthy-yet-very-attractive temptations. Usually, I’m good at that. Not always. I’m always looking for a bargain, although I don’t look as hard for bargains as I did when I had less of a bankroll. If Mike wants to consider that irony, so be it.

The winning process, whether in gambling or in any other endeavor, is in major part a mindset. My mindset is to almost always be looking for ways to succeed. If I shut off such a mindset after having a bad experience, I might never get back on the right track again.