I know I used the word “Eve” twice in the title. It was intentional. New Year’s Eve is December 31. This promotion happened on December 30.
I go to Reno semi-regularly to play at the ROW, which is actually three connected casinos in the downtown area which all belong to the Caesars Rewards system. Players there learn to check the kiosks before they begin play, as many promotions require you to activate your account before you begin play.
In October, I noticed two icons for Mercedes NYE drawings. One icon gave you one drawing ticket every day you swiped your card. The other icon allowed you to earn entries for the drawing, based on your play — possibly with a multiplier. The multipliers there are often based on your tier level, with Seven Stars players earning bigger multipliers than Diamond players, who in turn earn bigger multipliers than lesser tier levels.
I figured the chances of me being in Reno for New Year’s Eve were pretty small, so I didn’t swipe these icons, nor did I read the exact rules of the promotion. In hindsight, this might have been a mistake. In general, if you’re not 100% sure you’re not going to be at a drawing, it’s probably a good idea to click on the icons daily. This preserves your options, “in case.”
In December, they began posting signs that read:
Drawing December 30, 2024 6 p.m.
Friday, December 27, 2024, 100x drawing tickets
Saturday, December 28, 2024, 75x drawing tickets
Sunday, December 29, 2024, 50x drawing tickets
Earn entries from October 1 to 5:45 p.m. December 30
Although I hadn’t earned any tickets so far, because I hadn’t activated the icons at the kiosk during my days there in October and November, I considered whether the rules made it worthwhile to play for the drawing.
They have $25 NSU Deuces Wild, among other games. What if I played $500,000 through one of those machines on Friday, December 27? Then left Reno and returned in time for the drawing three days later. Would that make any sense?
My calculations on this were made before I saw the exact rules. If I decided to seriously consider pursuing this, I’d read the rules carefully before I started.
Hypothetically, I assumed the car was worth $70,000 and there would be six additional winners for $5,000 each, making it a $100,000 promotion. (Again, this is speculation. I didn’t read the rules.)
The expected loss on $500,000 worth of NSU Deuces Wild is about $1,300 – with significant variance. Plus, there’s the expense of flying back and forth to Reno twice. The question becomes: Would I earn enough equity playing that much to make it worthwhile?
Equity comes in many forms. It includes the drawing itself. Surely that much play on a 100x day gives me a very decent chance at getting one of the prizes.
I would also earn 50,000 Reward Credits, which is worth $500 worth of meals/room/comps or $250 worth of free play or $500 worth of bets in the sportsbook. Probably the sportsbook is the smartest bet. I’m just a recreational player there, so assuming I’m betting at a 5% disadvantage, that’s worth $475.
I would also earn 50,000 Tier Credits (plus a 10,000 daily bonus for earning 5,000 Reward Credits or more in a day). Since I was already way past the 150,000 Tier Credits required to Seven Stars status for the next year, what becomes important is the Seven Stars Experience Award — which are earned in increments of 250,000 Tier Credits each. There are options on what to do with these, but usually my choice is to convert them into $450 free play in either Las Vegas or Cherokee.
Before December 27, I’d know whether earning an additional 60,000 Tier Credits would push me over the threshold into another one of these awards. While an extra 60,000 Tier Credits would be about one fourth of the amount needed for the $450 award, I would either cross a threshold or I wouldn’t. Earning 200,000 Tier Credits towards the next award before the end of the year isn’t worth anything.
Finally, monthly mailers at the ROW are based on average daily theoretical, among other things. Playing $500,000 in one day far exceeds my usual play. Surely my mailers would increase for three months or so.
So, adding it all up, does the equity earned exceed the expected loss of $1,300? I’m sure it does. By quite a bit. Now I wish I had clicked on those icons in October and November. While the entries earned would be dwarfed by what I earned on December 27, every little bit helps.
In the end, I decided against this play. There were SO many tickets in the virtual drum. I tend to avoid drawings where there are a lot of free entries given out. Even though it’s just one ticket a day per person who swiped at the kiosk, there were thousands of persons swiping every day. It adds up.
Although it’s a guess, maybe I could have earned 2% equity in the $100,000 drawing using the strategy indicated. While that’s worth $2,000 on average, there’s a ton of variance. By far the most likely result was not being called.
Even though I didn’t pull the trigger this time, thinking it through helps me figure out these things in the future.
