Tag: Bob Dancer

Posted on by — Leave a comment

Halloween Aboard the Bliss

Bob Dancer

Bonnie and I each earn at least one highly discounted Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) cruise per year because of our Seven Stars status within the Caesars Total Rewards system. Cruising to the Mexican Riviera out of Los Angeles is our default trip. I have extended family in Southern California and we use the cruise as an excuse to get together. We’ll show up a day early, treat everybody to dinner, and one of them will provide a place to sleep and transportation to and from the ship. It works for all involved.

This year, we cruised on the Norwegian Bliss. The first of our two cruises was a 5-day affair immediately after the Bliss repositioned itself from its summer run in Alaska. Schedule-wise it worked for us, and in another month, Bonnie will go with her daughter and enjoy the seven-day version of the trip.

We’ve been to the ports. Sometimes we get off the ship, and sometimes we stay aboard. For us, we use it as an excuse to go dancing every night. And, of course, now I know a bit about slots, I look forward to visiting the casino. When I was strictly a video poker player, I avoided ship casinos. Not anymore.

The Bliss has the best casino at sea I’ve ever experienced — out of possibly 80 separate cruises. Perhaps other ships have the same or similar features, but this is the best for me so far. The top feature of it is that two-thirds of the casino is totally non-smoking, and the smoking part of it is behind sealed doors. Although some smoke drifts through when people open the doors to the sealed area to enter or exit, it’s by far the best cruise chip casino arrangement I’ve enjoyed so far. There are machines and table games in both areas. Although I walked through the smoking area once to see what was there, I avoided playing there. The cigarette smoke is much more concentrated in that sealed room than in a regular casino. Even when I could find no more playable machines in the non-smoking area, I left the casino rather than check out what machines were then playable in the smoking area.

It used to be that NCL would give you a green casino player’s card along with a separate card you could use to get a free drink in the casino. You were supposed to be playing when you ordered the free drink, but they didn’t always check very closely. These cards no longer exist.

Now you tap your room keycard on the machine (very similar to the way you can pay for things with your smart phone at some locations) and you’re logged onto that machine. When you’re done playing at that machine, you can either cash out into a TITO ticket or tap your card again and the money will go to your account.

The next time you play (it could be in a day or two — it could be at an adjacent machine), if you have money in your account, you can simply download it at the machine. On this particular trip, I was able to build credits to an excess of $2,000. I downloaded $200 of it and carried it between machines in a TITO, which I find much easier to deal with. If it went to zero, I’d download some more. If I hit a sizeable jackpot (but less than the W2-G threshold), I’d put all the money on my card and download another ticket for $200 or so. If I dropped a ticket and lost it, I’d rather it be for $200 than $2,000.

On the last night of the cruise, I turned slot points into free play, played them off, and collected all of the money in my account. I was told I could leave both slot points and money on my card and the next time I sailed on NCL both the money and slot points would be there safe and sound. I’d be willing to risk that if I were sailing on two back-to-back cruises, but not if, as in my current case, it’s going to be a year or so until I return.

Just as in an out-of-town land-based casino where I plan to return again and again, I know for certain that at some point I’m going to die or otherwise not be able to return and redeem accumulated points and money. I’d much rather that money be in my estate and distributed according to my will than being left in the NCL account forever. I’m not sure what the NCL does with abandoned cash and slot club points, but I’m sure it doesn’t go to my heirs.

The third feature I appreciated was that there were nine Super Star machines in the non-smoking area, each including Ultimate X, among several other games (like Super Times Pay, Spin Poker, and several other video poker games, and Keno).  

The Ultimate X games came in Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play — and each had five separate denominations — and each of those came in Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus, and Deuces Wild. That’s 45 separate games to check per machine. To fully load such a game requires 10 coins per line — five coins to collect money as you normally do in video poker and five additional coins to build new multipliers.

These games could return 95% or so to the player if played perfectly with ten coins per line. (Playing perfectly is extremely unlikely due to the difficulty of the strategies and the fact that strategies aren’t published for pay schedules that bad.) If you can find a game with unredeemed multipliers, you play one dealt hand and each time you do so you’re playing at least a 105% game, and it can exceed 1,000%. The latter number is rare and usually occurs when a 10-coin-per-line player was dealt a flush or full house and left the game immediately afterwards.

Over the five-day cruise I found 300-400 playable situations on this game. I certainly wasn’t the only person checking, but the good situations kept getting created over and over again by the not-so-knowledgeable players. When you have this many opportunities and always played at an advantage, it’s close to impossible to end up behind. And, with a little luck, you can end up way ahead. Over time you’re going to hit 4-of-a-kinds and royal flushes. Those are always good, but when you hit such hands with a multiplier, they’re even better.

There were playable slot machines as well. Some rather new ones that many players didn’t know how to exploit, and also some oldies-but-goodies like Scarab. This is a game that is well known, and I never check in Vegas because so many players know about it. But on a cruise ship? I checked regularly and found several playable situations.

My biggest score ($1,000) came on a slot machine, as well as my biggest losses (about $400, twice). Overall, though, I was easily ahead on both video poker and slots. I need to juggle my time so that I can eat and go dancing with Bonnie, but there’s still time for me to go check out machines in the casino a few times each day. I didn’t hit any W2-Gs this time even though I was playing machines where they were certainly possible. Maybe next time.

Next year around this time the Bliss will be assigned to the Mexican Riviera route again. That’s good news for Bonnie and me.

Posted on by — 7 Comments

Spirited Response

Bob Dancer

As I wrote a few weeks ago, Bonnie and I were in New Orleans when Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida. We didn’t feel it at all in the Crescent City, which was 300 miles west of where the eye of the storm hit the mainland.

The following Sunday we flew to Atlanta, so as to continue our “play-cation” at Harrah’s Cherokee in North Carolina. When we fly from Vegas, we fly into Asheville — which is about one hour away from Cherokee. Although there are direct flights from Las Vegas to Atlanta, it’s a three-hour drive from Atlanta to Cherokee.

From New Orleans, however, flights to Asheville require plane changes and many hours. The flight into Atlanta took about an hour and a half, so that’s what we signed up for. Less flight time, and more drive time. We flew Spirit Airlines.

This turned out to be a fortunate play. Helene wreaked havoc on Asheville, to the surprise of essentially everybody. Had we planned to fly into Asheville, our flight would have been cancelled because the airport was closed for a few days while repairs were being made. Several weeks later, repairs are still being made to parts of Asheville.

On the flight, Bonnie somehow left her iPhone on the seat next to her when she left the plane. We didn’t discover this until we were in Cherokee — three hours away. The “Find My Phone” app said her phone was in the Atlanta airport (ATL), Concourse D. This, of course, was good news. It was likely in Spirit Airlines lost and found.

We called Spirit, hoping to make arrangements for them to ship the phone to our home. I was prepared to pay whatever the shipping charge would be. This has to be a fairly common occurrence.

But I couldn’t get through on the phone. The message said my wait was expected to be in excess of 90 minutes. I set it to speaker phone and put it next to me while I played video poker. Two hours later they still said the wait was expected to be in excess of 90 minutes. I finally left my number. They said they would call me back when they could. Since we were still in the aftermath of the hurricane, with airports still closed and Hurricane Milton approaching, it was understandable that the airline’s phone system was swamped. But they never returned my call.

On their app, they had a place where you could file a lost and found report. I did this. I also filed a lost and found report online for the Atlanta airport just in case Bonnie, perhaps, left her phone in a bathroom or somewhere after she departed the plane.

Our scheduled flight home left ATL on a Sunday at about 8 a.m. The lost and found office is open 8 a.m. – 5 p.m. Monday through Friday. My “plan” was to talk to somebody and agree to pay them $200 to be at the office on Sunday morning about 6 a.m. That is much cheaper than buying a new phone and, for the right person, a $200 bonus was something worth changing their schedule for.

But talking to somebody in lost and found proved impossible. Spirit has a chat feature in their app, but every person I chatted with, including at the supervisor level, followed the company line. Wait for the lost and found to respond to your request. They would not give me a direct number to the Spirit lost and found at ATL or the Spirit executive offices at ATL. 

The lost and found sent me an email saying they hadn’t located Bonnie’s phone yet but were still looking.

I was considering renting a car. It’s a long drive, and I didn’t want to spend my vacation that way, but, again, it would be cheaper than buying a new phone.

Out of the blue, another possible solution arose. A gambling friend who happened to be in Cherokee at the same time mentioned that girlfriend was flying into ATL from Tampa Thursday night and then driving to Cherokee. I asked if she was the helpful sort who might be willing to check the Spirit lost and found while she was there.

“Probably,” I was told, and he gave me her phone number. Through talking and texting, I gave “Mary” a description of the phone, my lost and found claim number, and the code that would unlock the phone. 

I asked her if she had a phone charging cord that would work on an iPhone 13. She did, but it was at home. She now had a newer iPhone which requires a different charge cord. By the time I called she was already at the Tampa airport. “Okay,” I told Mary. “Give it your best shot.”

A few hours later, Mary sent me a text with a picture of Bonnie’s phone on it. There was a distinctive mark on her case that I recognized.  “Yes,” I told her. “That’s Bonnie’s phone.” Turned out she didn’t need to show ID or have the claim number or see if she could open it. They just gave it to her. That strikes me as irresponsible, but Bonnie and I benefited from it this time.

“Disasters” don’t always work out okay. And after listening to all the horror stories of people’s houses being washed away in nearby Asheville, the possible loss of Bonnie’s phone clearly wasn’t a disaster at all. But it felt like one at the time.

I was not at all pleased with Spirit’s system for dealing with customer complaints.

Posted on by — 3 Comments

Found a New Game

Bob Dancer

Sometimes I play video poker at the Eldorado in Reno. The Eldorado, along with the interconnected Silver Legacy and Circus Circus, make up the ROW, and they are the only Caesars Total Rewards properties in Reno. Some of the machines at the Eldorado are pretty old, but gradually they are being replaced with newer model machines.

During a recent trip, I hit a jackpot in the high limit slots area and was waiting for an attendant to come deal with it. I went to a nearby bank of Triple Play/Five Play/Ten Play machines to check pay schedules. Although I checked them several months ago, new machines are being added at this casino all of the time.

The machines were multi-denomination, from quarters to Five Dollars, and the pay schedules varied by denomination — with the best pay schedules on the $5 machines. So those are the ones I checked. And I found a pay schedule too good to be true.

It was 10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker (DDB). This is a 100.06% game if the straight flush pays 50-for-1, and about a tenth of a percent tighter if the straight flush pays 40-for-1. This was the 50-for-1 version! Although the casino has looser-than-average games in their high limit room, a game requiring $75, $125, or $250 to fully load returning more than 100% is downright juicy!

I carefully checked to see that the royal paid 4,000 coins. I’ve seen pay schedules where you only get 2,500. I also checked three-of-a-kind to verify that it paid 15. I have seen games which were otherwise identical, only paying 10 instead of 15 for three-of-a-kind, and the difference is huge.

The Total Rewards slot club there adds significant value. In addition to the normal slot club, the ROW offers Reward Credit and Tier Credit multipliers more frequently than many other casinos in that system. Add this on top of a 100%+ game — now we’re talking!

I’ve played many versions of DDB and have the strategies on my computer, which was upstairs in my room. But not recently. It’s been a while since I’ve played this game and I’ve played several similar-but-not-identical games since, so I figured I needed a refresher course.

I went upstairs and spent perhaps an hour refreshing myself on 10/6 DDB. It’s a fairly simple game, and I’ve played it a lot during the past, but I especially wanted to refresh myself on all of the straight flush draws. I’ve recently been playing games that return 5-for-1 for the flush rather than 6-for-1, and the draws are different. I also reviewed the A versus a suited JT, and the unsuited AQJ. When I was comfortable with the idiosyncrasies of this game, I went downstairs to have a go at it. 

There were three identical machines in the high limit room, and one was taken by another player playing a different game. I decided to play $5 Triple Play. This was a $75-per-play game. This was more than I had planned to play this trip, but the game was looser than I knew existed, and I had a line of credit there in case things went badly. Which they can. Most of you know that DDB has a “heaven or hell” type of variance. Not as large of a variance as some other games, but if I fail to hit enough quads, especially the premium quads with kickers, I’m not going to like my score at all.

One of the “problems” with this game is that all quads are hand pays that range between $1,250 and $10,000. Each one requires the intervention of a slot person (or two, for the bigger jackpots). If I have two or more machines available to me, I can hop over to the “spare” while I’m waiting for any machine containing a jackpot to be reset.

I was stuck about $2,000 when I hit my first quad — which happened to be fives. I knew my machine would lock up with the $1,250 hand. Except it didn’t lock up!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

I examined things more closely and discovered I only received $1,000 for the jackpot rather than $1,250. The ‘only’ thing shorted in this pay schedule was quads between fives and kings, paying 200 coins rather than 250. This changes the pay schedule to about 98.5%. No thanks! That’s not a terrible return for most high limit video poker, but the Eldorado has some games better than that. I went back to the machine I was playing originally.

I had looked at the pay schedule closely — but missed this particular change. I was simply not aware that this pay schedule, with this one change from the “regular” pay schedule, even existed. It cost me $1,000 to “learn my lesson.” This was not a disaster, but I’m Bob Dancer and am supposed to see these pay schedules instantly. Well, I missed this one! But now I’m aware of it,. I won’t miss it again.

Posted on by — 6 Comments

What It Takes to Lose

Bob Dancer

I have a gambling partner, “Abe,” and, in 2024, we split gambling wins and losses 50-50. Our partnership encompasses video poker, slots, and occasionally other games. I am the stronger partner when it comes to video poker, although the difference between us is shrinking. He is stronger on slots, overall, but I am more knowledgeable about certain games.

Abe and I recently played at an out-of-Las Vegas casino, accompanied by our wives, and also accompanied by “Bo,” who is one of our slot gurus. Bo is a man who lives outside of Nevada, makes a very nice living playing slots, and sometimes shares information with us. We saw a new game at the casino. Bo had heard about it and had some good ideas about how to beat it.

The game needed to be played a lot by others before it was ready for us to play it. The right conditions didn’t happen at this casino, so we didn’t play.

When we returned to Las Vegas, we found that game in several casinos, but usually not in a beatable condition. Eventually we found a game that met our criteria. I took a picture and texted that to Bo. He agreed conditions were right. He said that if he were in town, he’d snap it up. Although he didn’t have data on this particular game, he believed that it was similar to other games he knew well and that we should hit the jackpot within the next six hours or so.

Over the next 18 hours, Abe and I played this game and proceeded to lose $27,000, at which point we “pulled the plug” and gave up on it. The top jackpot was still on the machine and not in our pockets. Possibly we’ll play this game in the future, once more data is obtained, but right now we’re not sure if it’s not as Bo believed it was, or if we were just plain unlucky. Either explanation could be correct.

Most players wouldn’t have lost that much on the game. To do that, you had to have the bankroll and a lot of confidence that you’re on the “right side.” Relatively few players have that combination of bankroll and knowledge, at least on this game at the present time.

The vast majority of slot players believe the house has the advantage on whichever game they’re playing. They might try a game, see how it goes, and leave before they’ve lost too much. They probably would never have played this game for the stakes we were playing simply because they were unfamiliar with the game and didn’t recognize what a profitable opportunity it presented.

The three of us, Abe, Bo, and me, are now analyzing what happened. Our current “best guess” is that we were on the right side of the game and got unlucky. Over time, we’ll collect more data and come to a more definite conclusion as to the profitability of this particular game under these conditions.

The knowledge and willingness to gamble that we have has served us well over time — just not this time. 

Oh well, we’ll shake it off and keep doing what we’re doing.

Posted on by — 1 Comment

Does Playing Multiple Lines to Reduce Variance Work in Slots?

Bob Dancer

I wrote a blogpost a few weeks ago saying that playing Ten Play has less variance than Five Play which has less variance than Triple Play which has less variance than single-line play, assuming you’re playing the same total bet. A comment was posted, unanswered by others, which asked: “Would this apply to all games of chance, including slots?”

My answer is that slots generally do not have the same structure as the Triple Play family of games. And by the Triple Play structure, I mean all lines have the same starting position after the deal. I certainly haven’t studied all varieties of slot machines, so maybe . . .

In the accumulative type of slots that I play, every combination of denomination and number of coins bet is in a different position except immediately after the machine is installed or the machine is reset. In a hypothetical Yellow Bob machine, let’s say they have a Mini meter, a Minor meter, and a Major meter. 

At any given point, the meters from bottom to top, might be 7-10-8 for 1¢ 100 coins; 12-19-9 for 1¢ 200 coins; and 15-10-12 for 1¢ 500 coins, etc. Each of these have a different EV. Playing the 100-coin version in this case would be a worse bet than the others simply because the meters are lower, not because you’re betting fewer coins. Depending on how frequently the jackpots come about, and how much each spin is worth on average when it does hit, either the $2 or the $5 game could be the better play. It’s possible that none of these have an EV exceeding 100%.

Let’s say the same machine also has games for 2¢, 5¢, and 10¢ — each having three different “number of coins.” That’s 12 separate games you have to check. Any of them might be the best play right now. Or, most often, none of them.

Some manufacturers give you a higher return for higher denominations. That is, maybe the 1¢ and 2¢ games, in all three “number of coins” variations, have an overall return of 90% and the 5¢ and 10¢ versions have an overall return of 92%. You either have to have inside information on the RTPs (return to players), or capture a lot of data to know if this is true.

This would seem to imply that the higher denominations are a better bet, but that’s not necessarily the case. Assume “average” meter readings, betting $5 at a 90% rate means you’re losing 50¢ per pull on average. Betting $50 at a 92% rate (still assuming average meter readings), means you’re losing $4 per pull.

One older game, called Clover Link Xtreme, has games in the four denominations we’ve discussed. You can have penny games with 500 coins (for a $5 bet), a nickel game with 100 coins bet (for the same $5 bet) and a dime game with 50 coins (again for the same $5 bet). These three separate games will all become positive at the same time. In this case, you want to be playing the dime game because hitting the Mini on the penny game is worth $10 while hitting the Mini on the dime game is worth $100. This is the only game I know that’s like this, but, again, I certainly don’t know all the games.

On slots that don’t accumulate, playing the higher denominations may have a better percentage return. So, if you’re playing until you reach a specific goal, say 1,000 tier credits, you may lose less on average if you play it on higher denominations — if this is a machine where the larger denominations yield a higher percentage. This will be a higher EV, but also higher variance. The amount you bet each hand is a key part of the variance calculation.

Keep in mind, though, that these slots rarely return any percentage close to what you can get playing video poker. Even bad video poker games return more than most slot machines. If you have the knowledge to know which video poker machines to play, and know how to play them reasonably well, that’s a much better bet than most slot machines. If you know how to identify advantage slots and can find them in a positive state, slots can certainly be more lucrative than video poker. But slot knowledge is hard to come by, and you’ll have lots of competition. There is some information in Michael Shackleford’s latest version of Gambling 102, and a more comprehensive book about slots is in the works at Huntington Press. I don’t know when it will be released.

Posted on by — 4 Comments

A Visit to New Orleans

Bob Dancer

Through the years, I’ve been to Harrah’s New Orleans twenty times or more. They used to have dollar Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play NSU Deuces Wild, and if you played enough, you got nice mailers including food, free play, and airfare. The casino was within walking distance to the French Quarter and the Mississippi River, and it was an enjoyable city to visit. They had a Diamond Lounge where if you planned it right, you could easily consume a high proportion of your calories for free every day — and the menu varied from day to day.

So, a surprising number of Las Vegas video poker players regularly made the 2,000-mile journey to the Crescent City. Players from all over the country came as well.

 Almost a decade ago, the NSU games were removed. The loosest remaining video poker I knew about (other than 9/6 Jacks or Better at $150 a hand, or more) was what I called Pseudo NSU, and others called Airport Deuces — among many other names. It’s a 98.9% game that might be acceptable with the right promotion and slot club. Although occasionally I would go for a Seven Stars trip, the tighter games precluded me from attending regularly.

This summer, however, Bonnie and I both received too-good-to-pass-up mailers — so we didn’t. These offers were presumably based on our play at Harrah’s Cherokee — which is also in the Southeastern part of the country. In late September we booked a total of four days — two in my name, two in hers — into the hotel — immediately before a stay in Cherokee. New Orleans is, more or less, on the way to North Carolina from Las Vegas.

Although the hotel is still called Harrah’s New Orleans, the casino has become Caesars New Orleans. There is a new Caesars Hotel that will open in a few months that is slightly smaller than the existing Harrah’s Hotel (350 rooms compared to 400), with 50 of those rooms branded Nobu Hotel, which is a higher-end experience. I was told that the Harrah’s Hotel will be refurbished, possibly renamed, and will continue to be part of the casino-hotel complex there.

The casino itself was barely recognizable to me. Brand new carpet featuring Julius Caesar’s head over and over again covered the casino. When we were there, we saw plenty of empty floor space that will presumably be filled over time with slot machines. The buffet is gone, and a food court area now takes the place of where I think they used to have a theater. 

When I was there previously, I was not a slot player. Today, there are a number of good machines that are sometimes positive, and presumably more to come. Percentagewise, there are far fewer video poker machines than there used to be, although it’s possible that ratio will change when the additional machines are installed. While I didn’t do an exhaustive search, I did see some machines with pseudo NSU on them — which isn’t what it used to be but decent enough by today’s standards. 

Using your Reward Credits (RCs) for dining is a bit tricky. Your RCs are redeemed at one-for-one at the Steakhouse, Manning’s, and the food court. Most other restaurants are redeemed at two-for–one, except Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse is redeemed at three-for-one. This means a $100 check at Ruth’s Chris will cost you $300 in RCs.

There are a number of restaurants throughout the city where you can eat using RCs, at the two-for-one rate, only you have to redeem your RCs first and get a voucher. If your voucher isn’t big enough, you have to use cash or credit card to pay the rest. If your voucher is too big, you forfeit what you didn’t use.

The French Quarter retains its charm. One of my “go-to” stops every trip has been to attend an hour-long concert at Preservation Hall — a venue dedicated to playing New Orleans jazz music in its various forms. Preservation Hall itself is closed now for refurbishing, to add air conditioning among other things, but the Preservation Hall concerts still exist at the Toulouse Theatre, a few blocks away. 

There is a United States National Park on Decatur Street in the French Quarter. Every day that they were open, they used to have tours of the French Quarter at 10 a.m. I’ve been on several of them over the years — and each one was slightly different. They no longer have those, but they have free daily ranger talks about the history of New Orleans music — with each ranger giving his/her own take on it. We caught two of those — one from a lady using a piano to describe things and the second from an upright bass player who used that instrument in his talk. It was a surprise to me that the park rangers were experts on New Orleans Jazz. I thought park rangers were generally out-doorsy sorts who knew about forests and animals. But these folks know their music! The talks were enjoyable, informative, and free. 

Bonnie insisted on one snack consisting of beignets and chicory coffee. “The” place to have these snacks is Café Du Monde. This time, however, Café Beignet had no line, so we stopped there instead. Even after dusting off all of the powdered sugar that I could get off of one of these donuts, just being there caused me to ingest killer amounts of second-hand sugar. I ate one powder-free donut with a small chicory coffee to keep the peace. I’m grateful Bonnie didn’t want to go there more than once.

We’ll return to this casino — possibly just before or after a Harrah’s Cherokee trip — again. New Orleans is a unique place to visit — and one of our favorites. In my opinion, we stayed away too long.

Posted on by — 6 Comments

Why is the Variance of Multi-line Play Less than the Variance of Single-Line Play?

Bob Dancer

I’ve known for years that Triple Play reduces the variance of video poker. And Five Play, Ten Play, Fifty Play, and Hundred Play even more so. When most of us had the software Video Poker for Winners, the variance for Triple Play and Five Play and Ten Play were listed. So, this information was readily available. Unfortunately, that software doesn’t work on modern machines, and it’s not going to be updated. So most of us no longer have access to this source of information.

Saying dollar Ten Play has a lower variance than the single-line version of the same game is simply not correct. The Ten Play version, at $50 per play, has a considerably higher variance than the single-line version at $5 per play. But variance-per-coin-bet is a different story. Dollar Ten Play and $10 single play both require $50 to play. Between these two games, the Ten Play version has a much lower variance.

I’ve had some theories as to why this is true, but my major certainty on this matter came from looking at the software, which I trusted, rather than understanding the actual math itself.

Recently, however, I attended a lecture by Dr. Stewart N. Ethier, Professor Emeritus at the department of mathematics at the University of Utah, which addressed this subject. Although Ethier’s presentation was far more mathematical than I can usefully present to a general audience, I understand his point well enough so I can simplify it for my readers. If you wish to see the original paper, which he released simultaneously with the lecture, you may view it at //arxiv.org/abs/2409.03607.

The key way of looking at it that Ethier presented is one that seems obvious once it’s pointed out, but I, for one, never noticed it. The variance of a video poker hand is the sum of two components; namely the variance of the deal and the variance of the draw, which I will refer to as var (total) = var (deal) + var (draw).

So far, so good, Captain Obvious. What does this buy us?

What it buys us is that the variance of the draw is MUCH larger than the variance of the deal. For example, the variance of 9/6 Jacks or Better is about 19.5, but this is the sum of the variance of the deal (about 2) and the variance of the draw (about 17.5). One of the major components of the variance is the frequency of hitting the royal flush, which is about 1/40,000 for the draw versus 1/650,000 for the deal.

The variance for Triple Play is the variance of the deal, plus the variance of the draw, divided by 3. For Five Play we divide by 5. For Hundred Play we divide by 100. Notice we’re dividing the larger of the components of the variance.

Although Ethier provides quite a few decimal places in his paper (which you can look at if you wish), these are the variance numbers for 9/6 Jacks or Better

Single Line – 19.5

Triple Play – 7.82

Five Play – 5.48

Ten Play – 3.72

Fifty Play – 2.32

Hundred Play – 2.15

The primary reason for preferring lower variance is the preservation of bankroll. That is, playing multi-line versions of the same game reduces your risk of ruin — i.e., your chance of going broke. It’s frequently not possible to have a choice between multi-line games and single-line games with the same pay schedule. But when it is possible, the safer play is to go with the multi-line game.

“Safer” isn’t everyone’s choice. Higher variance can be called “more fun,” and a number of players gamble for fun. I gamble for longevity and profit, and bankroll preservation is a primary concern.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

Knowing More Than One Video Poker Game

Bob Dancer

Presumably, the vast majority of my readers have a favorite video poker game. Or at least a “go to” video poker game that they play the most. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t spend their time reading a blog behind a paywall which primarily addresses video poker.

The reasons for knowing more than one game are multi-fold. In no particular order:

  1. Casinos change their inventory of games periodically. Always have. Always will. If your favorite game goes away, you’ll be in a lot better position to keep playing video poker if you have a back-up game.
  1. The conditions on the game you usually play might be less than ideal. There might be smokers, or sticky buttons, or chatterboxes, or something else that you’d rather avoid. If you only know one game, it’s sometimes a matter of putting up with bad conditions or going home.
  1. There are sometimes more players desiring a particular game than there are machines. This is especially true if you’re playing the loosest game in the house and there’s a special event going on bringing in more players than usual.
  1. Promotions affect games differently. If it’s some sort kind of a 4-of-a-kind promotion, deuces wild variants do not perform as well as games without wild cards.
  1. Different casinos have different game mixes. While to some degree “all casinos are the same,” they really aren’t. Each has its own restaurants, for example, and you probably prefer some more than others — plus however good any particular restaurant is, variety is nice. Some casinos include movie theaters, bowling, childcare, shuttles to get you there, or perhaps are nearer to shopping. If you have one or more travel companions when you go to casinos, some of these things might be important to whomever you’re traveling with.
  1. The more games you know and practice, the more you stay mentally sharp at playing the game. I’m a believer that to keep your brain sharp, you have to use it. Regularly. I’m not an expert in brain health, but I’ve heard that adage repeated enough that it’s gospel to me. While at age 77 my brain is not as sharp as it was when I was younger, I attribute the sharpness that remains to the regular use to which I put it.
  1. Video poker is a very repetitious game. You’re dealt two pair. You hold two pair. For many people, playing the same repetitious game over and over again gets boring. 
  1. Your financial conditions might change, and not all pay schedules are available in all denominations.
  1. There might be better games on Triple Play or some other format you prefer more than single line games.
  1. You might prefer slant top machines to uprights. Or maybe adjustable chairs. Or distance from the sound effects of a particularly obnoxious slot machine.
  2. Playing multiple games allows you to meet more people. While a lot of us, including me, prefer to play without chatting, a valuable source of information about games and/or promotions at the current casino and others will be your fellow players. Just as in “real life,” the more networking you do the more you’ll succeed.
Posted on by — 4 Comments

Staying in the Groove

Bob Dancer

I’ve been playing NSU Deuces Wild for more than 20 years. It’s a simple game to play at the 99% accuracy level. It’s easier than most other video poker games to play at the 99.9% accuracy level. But it’s virtually impossible to play 100% accurately. The appendices to the Dancer/Daily Winners Guide to NSU Deuces Wild contain hundreds of exceptions to the basic strategy. Even the basic strategy has some real toughies in it. 

Consider the following nine pairs of hands. In none of the pairs are the two hands played identically. Do you know which is which? As difficult as this test is, it is much simpler when you have the clue that the two hands are played differently, than it is when you face any of these while playing. 

As is my custom, a W stands for a deuce. In the answers, bold italics means the cards are suited with each other. 

Test: 

  1. W 4♠ 5♠ K♠ T♥ versus W 4♠ 5♠ K♠ J♥
  1. W 4♥ 5♥ Q♥ K♣ versus W 4♥ 5♥ Q♥ J♣
  1. W 6♦ 7♣ 8♥ K♥ versus W 6♦ 7♣ 8♥ K♠
  1. W 4♣ 5♣ 3♥ J♦ versus W 4♣ 5♣ 3♥ Q♦
  1.  K♦ T♦ 6♦ A♠ 9♥ versus K♦ T♦ 6♦ A♠ 9♠ 
  1. K♠ T♠ 5♠ A♦ 3♦ versus K♠ T♠ 5♠ Q♦ 3♦
  1. 8♥ 9♥ Q♠ A♣ 4♣ versus 8♥ 9♥ Q♠ A♣ 3♣
  1. A♣ T♣ 9♥ 7♠ 5♦ versus A♣ T♣ 9♥ 7♠ 5♠
  1. W A♦ K♦ T♠ 8♠ versus W A♦ K♦ J♠ 9♠

Answers:

  1. W45 and W
  2. W and W45
  3. W and W678
  4. W45 and W
  5. KT and draw 5
  6. KT and draw 5
  7. 89 and draw 5
  8. AT and draw 5
  9. WT8 and WAK

Don’t fret too much if you didn’t score well. The test was my way of supporting my statement that it was virtually impossible to play this game perfectly. Each of these nine examples have a lot of similar hands to learn. Learning these particular 18 hands still leaves you with several hundred different tough hands to struggle with.

As it happens, until some casinos change their inventory, I’ll be playing NSU Deuces Wild more, dollar-wise, than all the other video poker games I play. So even though each of these distinctions are worth fractions of a penny if you play for quarters, I’m playing enough hands for large enough stakes that it makes sense, to me anyway, if I spend time mastering them.

I could have an exact list of hands in a PDF that I could carry with me on my smart phone. In addition to it being illegal in Nevada and some other states to use cell phones to help you make gambling decisions in a casino, I find this tedious. I’m playing games where I have the advantage, everything considered, and taking 15 seconds to make sure I have the correct play by a tenth of a penny makes no financial sense.

It may surprise you, but I would not have aced the test I presented today. In question 5, I would have drawn five new cards both times, in question 6 I would have held KT both times, and in question 7, I would have drawn five new cards both times. The other six hands I would have aced.

So, what gives? Why would I play these hands incorrectly?

I have worked out a strategy that is “good enough.” I have the Level 4 strategy completely memorized, and for the appendix material, I use the shortcuts provided there. These shortcuts are relatively easy to memorize and get me close enough. I don’t have the tools to accurately measure how accurate my “simplified” strategy is, but I suspect it’s well over 99.99% of what is possible. And I can play it relatively fast.

It’s a far bigger risk to make mistakes by oversight. I know the right play, but maybe I don’t see it, or maybe I get momentarily confused. This happens to me more as a senior citizen than it did a few decades ago.

Posted on by — 1 Comment

Sometimes You Have to Guesstimate

Bob Dancer

The big key to winning at video poker and other gambling games is to only play when you have an advantage. Sometimes, though, it’s hard to know whether you have the advantage or not — or even how to measure that advantage.

Casino drawings provide one example. The casino agrees to give away such and such prizes. If you knew how many tickets were going to be in the drum, how many tickets you were going to end up having, and the value of the prizes, you could figure out what your EV was in the drawing. Factoring in how much coin-in it cost you to earn that many tickets and you can figure out your percentage return. Even if you could calculate it at 0.2%, it comes with a high variance. Usually, you don’t get drawn. Occasionally you do.

But you don’t usually know how many tickets are going to be in the drum, nor the exact number of tickets you’re going to end up with. And sometimes you don’t even know how much the prize is worth. Cash or free play is pretty straightforward. But what about if the prize is a car? Sometimes there’s a cash option, at 75% or 80% of retail, but not always. It might be a specific vehicle, or it may be a voucher for $25,000 (or any other amount) at such and such dealership.

What if it’s a Chevrolet dealership and you hate Chevies? Or if it’s a Toyota dealership and you practice a “Buying American” philosophy? Hard to put a number on these things.

What about comps? Some casinos offer you a certain amount of comp dollars, but these are hard to value as well. There are usually a limited number of outlets at which you can spend your comp dollars. If you get $100 to spend at the gift shop, if there is nothing there you want or what is there is greatly overpriced compared to what you can buy it for elsewhere, that comp is hardly worth $100.

You may earn enough comps to eat at one of the gourmet rooms, but what if this isn’t the kind of food you enjoy or is on your diet? Even if it is food you enjoy, if you have $200 to spend (eat it or lose it), you’ll probably use most of it up even if your typical dinner costs far less than that. You might decide a $40 tip is warranted on this meal while your typical dinner with tip might be $50. Is this comp worth $200 or $10?

The South Point casino regularly runs promotions where you play a certain amount and earn one or more spins where each spin is worth between $5 and $100. (The exact rules vary each time, but are often similar to this.) If you don’t know how much average spin is, how are you going to put a value on the promotion?

For me, since I play approximately a breakeven game at the South Point (99.7%+ games and a 0.3% slot club) before the promotion and mailers, any additional free play is welcome, but not needed to justify playing. I’ll come in on the days you can get the spins (if I’m in town) and collect the extra money, but the promotions aren’t sufficient for me to play extra. Whereas unlimited double points just might be.

I do not put a value on room comps, although I definitely use them when out of town. If I weren’t there, I wouldn’t need a room, and I can’t “cash in” the value of the room. (Or, rather, I don’t. Years ago, I sometimes sold room nights, but not anymore.) A suite is appreciated over a regular room, but if the game isn’t more than 100% without the suite, I stay away.

In Vegas and many other cities, there are professional sports teams and some casinos offer you tickets to the events — often premium seats with amenities. Were I someone who would buy tickets to these events, this is a comp worth money and I would conceivably play a slightly-under 100% game to score the tickets. Since I basically have a “I’ll take the tickets if they are offered, but I wouldn’t go out and buy them” attitude, I don’t factor this into whether a game is playable.

Sometimes there is a jewelry or some other giveaway that attracts Bonnie’s eye. I’ll play extra for that. I don’t put an exact value on “keeping Bonnie happy,” but it is definitely something worth investing in. So I do.