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Comparing Two Different Games at Dotty’s — Part One of Two

Today I’m going to discuss a play that is of limited interest to most of my readers. It includes, however, a “how did I figure it out” discussion that could be useful to many of you.

Long-time readers of mine know I sometimes play at Dotty’s. Dotty’s has numerous (more than 100) locations in Nevada which are mostly 15-machine locations. It does have a few full-blown casinos with several hundred machines each, and at least one intermediate-sized location (at Sunset and Green Valley Parkway) with about 50 machines in it.

Continue reading Comparing Two Different Games at Dotty’s — Part One of Two
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I Don’t Want to Lose That Much!

This particular incident happened at the Gold Coast casino in Las Vegas maybe ten years ago, on games that are long gone. The fact that these individual games are no longer available doesn’t change the thought processes of the players involved.

My game of choice at that casino back then was a $2 single line 99.81% version of Double Bonus Deuces Wild (DBDW). With a 0.30% slot club 24/7 (if you had achieved the highest tier level — called “Emerald”), the game provided a very small edge to the competent player. They would regularly have days where you could earn 0.50% or 0.60% on play up to $10,000 coin-in per day. If you played more than that, you reverted to the 0.30% slot club.

They had drawings. They had mailers. They had other promotions. Overall it was a modestly profitable place to play — at least on a $10,000-a-day coin-in basis.

This game came with a variance of 40.4 — which is very comparable to that of Double Double Bonus (42.0). These variances are moderately high, especially when compared with Jacks or Better (19.5) or NSU Deuces Wild (25.7).

A typical session of $10,000 coin-in (1,000 hands) ends up a thousand or more dollars to the red unless you connect on one or more hands of $1,600 five aces (every 2,565 hands on average), $2,000 four deuces (6,766 hands), $4,000 four deuces with an ace kicker (38,088 hands) or an $8,000 royal flush (44,211 hands). The “average loss” of $19 (based on a 99.81% return played for $10,000 coin-in) before you collected your $30, $50, or $60 dollars in free play from the slot club was a score you never saw. Over hundreds of sessions, your score would approach a $19 loss per session, but individual sessions varied wildly from that. Hitting three or more jackpots in one 1,000-hand session wasn’t that rare. Not hitting anything at all for several sessions in a row wasn’t that rare either.

Until they told me not to do it, I played on both my card and that of Shirley (my wife at the time). I would play through $20,000 each time I played and that would take 2½ hours or so. Since the casino is across the street from the Palms, and I played a lot there before it was purchased by Station Casinos, the Gold Coast was a fairly convenient place to drop in and drop out of for these small plays.

When I started each play, I would feed in ten $100 bills. When this went down to zero, I would feed in ten more bills. When I hit for $1,600 or $2,000 (which was paid in cash), I would frequently create a ticket for that amount.

There was nothing sacred about the way I did this, but there was some method. It was done to simplify record-keeping. For tax and other reasons, I need accurate records. Adding an additional $1,000 per time is easy accounting for me. If I were playing for smaller stakes, perhaps adding $100 or $200 at a time would make sense. But on this game, you could go through $200 in five minutes if you ran bad and continually reaching into my pocket and making sure to record each bill was tedious and I would have worried that I’d occasionally forget to record a Benjamin or two. I could have easily inserted $2,000 at a time, but I settled on $1,000 and it worked for me.

There were perhaps six of these machines and I’d see the same faces seated at them over and over again. A few dozen players had analyzed the game similarly to the way I did and played more or less the same amount (although several played for $1 or 50 cent stakes for which the odds were the same but the amount you could lose was less. It would also take you two or four times as long to play the 10,000 points if you played for the lesser stakes.) If all the machines were taken, it was common to be asked, “How long do you intend to play?” We all were pretty civil about sharing because it was obvious that the guy who had the machine this time may well be the one wanting a machine next time.

One day, a lady I knew sitting next to me, Helen, had 9,400 points when her credits went down to zero. She needed to play $600 more though the machine to get the maximum slot club benefits that day — or she could have used that as a good time to quit for the day.

She was debating whether she should put in $100, $200, or $300. Helen only had 60 hands to play and was trying to predict how much it would cost. The simple answer is: Who knows? I’m pretty good at predicting how the next 6,000,000 hands will go, but really bad at predicting the same about the next 60 hands.

Helen asked me how much I would put in. I was basically concentrating on my game but told her, “I always put in $1,000.”

“But I only need to play $600 more,” she responded.

“I would put in a grand.”

“Well, I’m not going to do that,” she told me. “I don’t want to lose that much!”

I gave her a “Do whatever you want” shrug and we didn’t talk anymore about it. But I went away thinking that how much I wanted to lose didn’t have anything to do with the equation. I would be planning on stopping at 10,000 points, as she was, and I also wanted to keep good records. Cashing out at whatever amount I had on the ticket when I had reached 10,000 points was no problem at all. I could either turn it into cash or save it until tomorrow when I was going to play again.

There could be exceptions to this, of course. If I had 9,980 points when my machine ran out of money, I would either have put in $100 or maybe quit for the day. If I had a $20 bill on me, it’s even possible I would have put that in instead of $100.  

Each player must work out for himself what technique works on this. For nickel players, obviously $1,000 at a time is way too much. For $5 Ten Play players ($250 per pull), $1,000 is probably too small. Inserting large amounts of money into a machine doesn’t cause me any kind of anxiety. I know players who agonize over every $20 bill.

Many modern casinos create tickets for you which allow you to put substantial amounts of money into the machine more easily. The Gold Coast didn’t have that at the time. Probably they still don’t, but I’m not sure. When I was restricted from receiving mailers there, I decided the casino was “too smoky” and haven’t been back.

You have to do what works for you. Since Helen had a different “default” than I did, it should be no surprise to anyone that she found my advice totally unworkable.

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What Can I Say?

Emails and letters from video poker players are part of my life, and often I get the same sort of question or request over and over again. Every month or so I get some version of the following:

Dear Bob:

I’m a huge fan of yours. I’m leaving for Vegas in nine days and counting. I want to know where the pros play so I don’t waste my time on inferior games. If you don’t tell me, it’s because you are a selfish jerk and I’ll never buy any more of your products.

(signed) Appreciative Fan

It’s gratifying to know that I have fans, even though I’m a selfish jerk. But there are many reasons I can’t give Mr. A. Fan what he asks. Let’s look at some of them.

  • Games: There are dozens of different video poker varieties returning over 99.5%. With the right slot club and promotion, any of these may be highly lucrative. No one (certainly not me) knows all of these. If I tell you that Super Double Bonus or Joker Two Pair or Double Bonus Deuces Wild or Double Bonus Plus is currently the best game, do you know these games? If not, are you willing to spend dozens of hours becoming proficient at the game before arriving in Vegas? If not, knowing that the game is a good play isn’t useful information to you.
  • Skill Level: How good are you? Even the best players have a very small edge. And that’s on only a small number of games played under the best conditions. If you haven’t practiced beforehand on a game, you have no hope of playing with an advantage. Playing the same games the pros play is only a good deal for you if you have the same skills that the pros have.
  • Denomination: If you play for nickels, you don’t want to hear about dollar opportunities. (There are no professional nickel players, by the way, unless you count 5¢ Hundred Play games.) If you like to play for $5, the best quarter game is irrelevant.
  • Slot Club Tier: Some casinos have slot clubs that pay more for high-end players. Let’s say a casino rebated 0.25% in cash back for the lower 95% of its players in terms of coin-in, but 0.50% for its top players. Whether it’s best playing there or at another casino where the slot club returns 0.33% depends on your tier level. Sometimes it’s worth playing a slightly lesser game in order to get up to the next higher tier level.
  • Reservations: Where are you staying and will you have a car? Vegas is spread out and Suncoast, for example, is more than 25 miles from Sunset Station.  Anyone traveling back and forth on the freeway between these two casinos has planned his vacation poorly. That’s very different from staying at the Venetian and walking across the street to play at the Mirage.
  • Comps: Do you need to play a certain amount at the casino you’ll be staying at in order to get free or reduced-price meals, rooms, shows, etc.? If you need to play $20,000 daily in coin-in to get the amenities you desire, that requires less than one hour if you’re a $10 player, all day if you’re a $1 player, and an impossible burden if you play for quarters.
  • Progressives: At any given time, at least half of the good plays in town are progressives. I don’t play them, generally speaking, but many pros do. There is no source of good information for the value of progressives at any point in time (unless you’re part of a group that shares such information with each other), and no way to know whether a seat will be available when you get there. Even if I knew the $5 7/5 Bonus Poker game at the Golden Nugget was high enough to be interesting an hour ago, I don’t know if anyone has hit it in the past hour.  And I certainly can’t predict what the progressive level will be tomorrow — let alone nine days from now.
  • Promotions: Double slot club points can turn an unacceptable game into a great one. A drawing for a new car is worth something if you’re going to be there during the drawing, but otherwise useless. Receiving a logo jacket for a royal flush isn’t worth so much if you already have a closet full of 30 unworn casino logo jackets. New promotions arise all the time. I frequently don’t know what promotions will be in effect in a few week’s time, and without that knowledge, I don’t know where the best place to play will be.
  • Other agenda: Are you coming to Vegas strictly for the gambling or are you (or any of your travel companions) planning on fine dining, shows, nice hotels, child care, proximity to certain other locations in Las Vegas, etc.? Getting a dining comp at a restaurant you wouldn’t want to eat at doesn’t do you any good. Playing a slightly lesser game might be worthwhile if it comes with nicer meals, shows, and hotel rooms.
  • For the games I consider best, there are only a few machines. It’s in my interest to keep quiet about what I know or I won’t get a seat. I don’t know about the “jerk” part, but being selfish with information can be very profitable.
  • I simply don’t know the best games everywhere. I’m restricted at some casinos, and I’m not scouting for dollar and lower games anywhere. Players who know of great games “somewhere” often don’t keep me in the loop — for the same reason I’m not telling them what I know.
  • There are hundreds of 15-machine bars across the Las Vegas valley. Most have poor games unworthy of serious attention, but sometimes you can find good opportunities there. I scout the ones within eight miles of my home — which is a small percentage of all the bars. I doubt if you’re thinking of flying into Vegas to play at a small bar.
  • I do respond to financial incentives. Pay me $10,000 and I’ll tell you all of my plays — in Vegas and out. Up that to $20,000 and I’ll tell you WHY each game is attractive to me. No guarantee that any of the games will be suitable for you to play.

These are a few of the things to consider in choosing what game to play and at which casino. I can’t answer the “where to play” question for you without all of this information.

I suggest that you’d be better off if you considered these questions before you made your own decision about where to play.