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Build A Wall!

Mr. B, a highly successful AP who doesn’t play casino table games, said to me over lunch in a casino coffee shop, “Why don’t they fix everything? If I ran the casino, I would just make it so that no game is beatable!” I’m sure you would try, B! It’s a fair question, but the full answer goes beyond game protection.

Let’s start with the idea of complete game protection. It’s a unicorn. First of all, it’s not even an appropriate objective. Though some casinos actually do have a pathological drive to thwart all APs, that’s just biting off your nose to spite your face. The real goal is profit maximization. The most random shuffle, which would thwart many AP moves, is not as profitable as a much faster shuffle that may occasionally be beaten by a highly skilled AP. Thorough background checks on every person walking into the casino would shut down some APs, but would create a major discouragement to the thousands of degenerates who want to gamble right now! London’s style of casino management is stupid. A zero tolerance policy is not optimal.

Even if a casino wanted to stop every AP, they couldn’t. Casinos have to play the hand they’ve been dealt. Their employee pool consists of people who are less educated and under-incentivized relative to the top APs who are trying to beat the games. Think about it. Casino employees universally believe that the idiot at third base is killing the table by taking the dealer’s bust card. These are people who believe that simply by virtue of a big bankroll and proper money management, a player can beat the games. Ackkk!

If a new casino opens up in Pennsylvania, there are no local employees who have the experience of the long-time Vegas pros who are about to walk in to whack the games. These employees will not know every AP method to beat the games, and it’s not their job to know. Even a Table Games Manager is not a game-protection specialist. A Table Games Manager has to do many things, while APs specialize. There are always new casinos, new employees, new games, new equipment, and new circumstances that make it impossible for a casino to anticipate and thwart every new method of beating a game.

My crew recently found a new game in a casino. The game gave the basic-strategy player an edge of 10.6%, and this was the stingier incarnation (the first gave an edge over 15%). Since the game was new and unique, the casino had no one to turn to for answers or to check the inventor’s math, and the game died a horrible death. Next!

But the real reason that it is difficult to thwart all AP activity is not related to game protection, but rather game design. Suppose that the casinos actually want to provide some entertainment value while they suck every penny from a gambler’s life savings (I said “suppose”!) In that case, they probably want the game to involve some playing decisions. (Obviously, the success of three-reel slots and baccarat shows that playing decisions are not necessarily critical to provide entertainment value. Addictive drugs are entertaining.)
Furthermore, they probably want the game to give the players an edge in the ballpark of -4% (fast games, such as blackjack and Casino War, can make money for the casino even with edges in the -0.5% to -2.5% range). Here’s the key question: Given that there are playing decisions to make within the game, what is the gap between the typical gambler’s edge and the expert player’s edge?

If the game involves tricky consequential decisions, then the expert player’s edge might be 20% higher than the gambler’s edge. But if the casino wants the masses to be playing at -4%, then it means the expert is now at +16%. If we were to make the payouts stingier, to put an expert at breakeven, then the gambler would be at -20%. At that level, the gambler probably gets gutted too quickly, and the game won’t be popular. The zero-tolerance policy to thwart the expert makes the game unpalatable to the thousands of regular gamblers.

You’ve got to give the fish some play for their money. Fantasy sports websites started to see this problem. The pros were gutting the fish so efficiently that the fish lost interest, and the regulators started questioning the equity of it all.

So the key in game design is to offer a set of decisions where the range from the smart to the stupid is not too extreme, or to offer decisions that provide entertainment, but which are completely inconsequential in the game, and which are meaningless in terms of EV. For instance, in Rock, Paper, Scissors, the player has a choice, but a meaningless one if measured by EV. Likewise, choosing Banker vs. Player in baccarat is a relatively inconsequential decision, but one which receives more human scrutiny each day than the debate over climate change.

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A Good Game Gone for About Five Years

Someone posted a picture of a $50,000 royal flush on wizardofvegas.com and that brought back memories. Although this particular jackpot was hit by someone else, I’ve had more than my share.

The game was called “Deuces Plus” and was a 10/4/4 version of Deuces Bonus with a 1000-for-1 royal flush. They were available at fewer than ten 15-machine bars in the Gambler’s Bonus system on the east side of the Las Vegas valley. Village Pub (more than one store), Rae’s, Doc Holliday’s, Franklin’s (which changed names several times), and maybe a few others. Not only was the game 100.35% by itself, these places had 0.10% or 0.20% slot clubs and pretty juicy bonuses. The bonuses were cash (up to $500 for hitting a royal flush on graveyard at one place), “points” (you’d get 20-coin to 50-coin bonuses for various things like four 3s, or maybe a full house including all royal cards, or whatever), and sometimes other things (like “squares” in an upcoming Monday Night Football game where winners got $100 or $500).

Plus, big players always were eligible to get two meals to go. These were 10-coin machines, up to $5, so a $50 bet could turn into $50,000. I hit more than 20 of these jackpots before eventually being 86’d from everywhere they were dealt. Some months later, the pay schedules were no longer offered anywhere.

One of the irritating things about the system back then was that you could download only $100 worth of points (i.e., accumulated free-play) per midnight-to-midnight 24-hour period. Even showing up at 11:45 p.m. and then downloading for “today” and then a few minutes later for “tomorrow” didn’t solve the problem because you easily could re-generate more than you downloaded if you played for several hours and/or hit some of the bonuses. I played on both my card and my wife’s card so I could get $200 before and $200 after midnight, but still I had several thousands of dollars of free play to download when I finally had no good-game places to play.

I ended up playing off $400 per trip at Gambler’s Bonus locations without the good games. It took a while, but downloading $400 “free money” per trip (even played on 98% games) made it worthwhile. Leaving the house at 11:30 p.m. wasn’t the most convenient, but you do what you have to do. Being “irritated” doesn’t sound like the right word to outsiders because, after all, it was a very juicy game and we were making bunches of money, but it certainly wasn’t as player-friendly as we would have liked.

This was before I had an iPhone, consequently I don’t have any pictures — so I “borrowed” the pictures shown below. Four deuces with an ace ($20,000), which occurred slightly more often than a royal, would have been worth a picture too. Maybe even the $10,000 “regular” four deuces shown below — again hit by somebody else — but I easily had more than 50 of them.

In one case I was dealt a royal flush — and had to hold the buttons because the (then) 30-year-old technology on the machines didn’t have auto-hold on royals. It took 20 or so minutes to be paid as the bars didn’t have that much cash on hand and drivers would come out and deliver the money. I know they paid you for $4,000 “five aces” jackpots from an on-property cash dispenser and had to call out for $10,000 “four deuces” jackpots. Whether the actual cutoff was at $5,000 or $10,000 I don’t know because the game I played never hit in that range.

When they had to bring in money from the outside, they paid you in $5,000 “straps.” One bartender liked to put the money into food take-out boxes as a form of disguise. One night I came home at about 4 a.m. and left the box containing $50,000 in the bathroom sink at home when I went to bed. My wife initially cursed me for leaving food un-refrigerated but screamed in delight when she finally opened the box to see what food I had brought home.

During one 18-month period, I probably was playing 20-30 hours a week on this game, mostly after midnight, spread out over as many locations as I was welcome — averaging about $250/hour profit throughout that period. Although the machines were old, I ran well for the entire time and did better than expectations said I should.

I generally do not tip very well on jackpots. At these places it was different. An 8-hour “shift” would give me an EV of about $2,000 every night — in front of the same bartenders over and over again. Tips in the range of $50 per night if I lost, or $100 if I won, and more than that if I hit for $20,000 or more, felt about right to me. I wanted the bartenders on my side as much as possible when the discussions came as to who should be kicked out.

Another idiosyncrasy of these machines was that if you hit a hand-pay, any points you had accumulated since the last time you pulled your card disappeared. Since this included wild royals ($1,250) and higher, you’d hit one of these taxables every 375 hands on average. The cards were “virtual” — meaning you had to enter your 6-10 digit account number and password on a keypad to go through the log-in process, unless you mis-keyed and then it would take maybe another 30 seconds to log off and log back on again. I used the rule of thumb that if I had earned $20 worth of points since the last time I logged out, it was time to do it again. That way I never lost too much due to this idiosyncrasy nor did I waste too much time logging off and on. It was a “compromise.” These points were valuable, but the rest of the play was more valuable.

If you want to criticize/condemn me for helping to burn out the game — knock yourself out. I plead guilty. I certainly was one of the people who did this. If I found this opportunity again, I very likely would play it the same way.  (And many would criticize/condemn me again.) You only get so many chances at such an opportunity. You know it’s going to end eventually. You know others are out there doing the same thing. You simply have to get while the getting is good.

A year or so after the play ended, I was in one of these places playing another promotion that was pretty good. Not $250/hour good, but pretty good. The manager (who knew exactly who I was) told me someone was talking about bringing back the old Deuces Plus game for high stakes somewhere and wanted a lot of action. Was I interested and could I help spread the word among other big players?

Yes and yes.

Then I thought some more about it. I speculated that this was going to be some kind of money laundering deal for whoever the owner would be. Even giving up 1.5% or so to the players (it would be less than that as there would be a lot of “normal” players as well who lost — but probably 75% of the coin-in on the $50-per-hand games was from knowledgeable players), he could still launder his money fairly cheaply. Assuming people who needed to launder money could very well be related to the mafia or maybe a drug cartel, I wondered if doing too well could be dangerous to my life expectancy. I was second-guessing my “yes and yes.” Well, it never happened so it’s all speculation on my part. It’s possible there was nothing shady about it at all — but in that case I couldn’t figure out how the owner could possibly be making money with this business plan.

I currently don’t have any plays this lucrative on an ongoing basis — although three times in the past two years I found such a game on a short-term basis. Players regularly complain that the games aren’t as good as they used to be. That is true, but this particular game lasted two years or so and ended only about five years ago, not 15 or 20. While some players knew about it, there were a lot of pros in Las Vegas who didn’t. (Even out-of-towners could have played while they were here. A $250 per hour play was likely more lucrative than their other options here. But for whatever reason, the play was kept reasonably quiet.)

It is not unreasonable to expect plays this juicy in the future. You just have to search for them, recognize them for what they are when you find them, learn the requisite strategy, and then play them for as much as you can afford for as long as they last. If “normal” video poker software won’t tell you how to play the game, you need to do your own programming or have a good programmer on call or on retainer.

Preserving your bankroll for special opportunities like this, which you may or may not find during your gambling career, is a form of “keeping your powder dry” for when you need it. Playing less than 100% games just because you can’t find anything better at the moment is the opposite of keeping your powder dry.

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I Was a BMX Voyeur

This likely will be a one-off column. It’s not about video poker. For me it’s not even about gambling, although I did make a few bucks betting on it. For me it’s about some kid I’ve known about for 20 years, who lives only a few miles from me, competing in the Rio Olympics in an obscure sport I knew nothing about until recently. It was a damn exciting experience for me and I want to tell you about it. If you want to read about video poker, come back next week.

Mike Fields is vice president at videopoker.com, also known as Action Gaming. Before that he was head of video poker for IGT. I met Mike more than 20 years ago. I was just coming up as a video poker expert. Mike was already established working for a gaming manufacturer. We met at a gaming show — enjoyed talking to each other — and have stayed friends. Mostly business friends, but with a good dose of personal relationship as well. There were fewer than 40 people invited to Bonnie’s and my wedding. Mike Fields was one of them.

I heard about his son, Connor, many times through the years. I met Connor once — with his dad — at a mall shortly before Christmas. A charity my wife was helping asked for donations to give gifts for underprivileged kids and Connor decided that since biking was his passion, he’d like to donate a bicycle. And he did.

connorfields

For the past several years, Connor Fields has been competing in BMX racing — with BMX standing for bicycle moto-cross. It’s an event for really crazy people. Up to eight cyclists start at the top of a steep eight-meter (26.25-feet) ramp. When the gate drops, they go speeding downhill and are up to about 40 miles per hour in two and a half seconds. Just to make it a little more exciting and dangerous, it’s legal to throw elbows and punches to the head as you jockey for position. Although the cyclists are pedaling throughout the race, the vast majority of their speed is gained in this initial eight-meter descent.

Once they reach the bottom of the ramp, they still have a long way to go even though it is definitely a sprint race. The BMX course has bunches of hills to navigate. The early ones come back-to-back and the cyclists become airborne as they go up one small hill — fly over the next one — and land going downhill. Although they could be going slower and actually go up and down each hill — that’s not a strategy for winning.

The corners of the track are called berms and they are banked so the bikers can take them at speed. Whether you take them high or low depends on how fast you are going and where you are compared to the other riders. Giving a “friendly elbow” to help a competitor go “over the top” of the berm to an off-course grassy landing is part of the game. Before the finish line, there are several low hills, called the rhythm section, which are far enough apart that you need to go up and down each one and jumping from one to the other isn’t a strategy any of the cyclists used at the Olympics.

Tracks are all similar — and all a bit different. Many are dirt. The one at the Olympics had a synthetic surface much like you see on a running track. I’m sure Connor can tell you how the texture of the BMX track is different from the texture of a running track and why, but I can’t.

The entire race takes 35 seconds or so for the winners. A bit longer if you crashed along the way. When one cyclist goes down, often one or more others get tangled up in the mess. The track isn’t all that wide and all the racers are trying to get to the front. Interestingly, if you go down in a BMX race and you can still walk, you pick up your bike and carry it to the finish line.

In most preliminary races, the top four go on to ride in the next round and the slowest four are eliminated. Whether you’re first or fourth in one round affects your position on the track in the next round, but your score doesn’t carry over. For example, even if the fourth place cyclist was a quarter of a second slower than the winner in the quarter-finals, they start off even in the semi-finals time-wise.

There were LOTS of stories about Connor Fields before the Olympics (Google him if you don’t believe this). He was injured earlier in 2016 and couldn’t compete in the Olympic time trials, but because of his skill, he was given a coaches’ exemption and was selected as a member of the five-person U.S. Olympic team (three men, two women). Since he’s a local boy here in Las Vegas, local TV and newspapers mentioned him all the time.

I didn’t get to see any of the races in real time, but I’d read the results every night. On Wednesday, August 17, I checked the results and saw Connor came in fourth place. I was very disappointed. He was really hoping for a medal, which only go three deep, and to go all that way and come up just short was awful.

As I read further, I realized that yes he was in fourth place, but these were individual time trials used for seeding purposes. The top 32 racers moved on to the quarter-finals the next day — and Connor was doing just fine.

On Thursday, August 18, there was blood on the track. Several of the riders went down hard, including one of the pre-race favorites — Joris Daudet from France. http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/bmxers-took-some-hard-hits-quarterfinals

Fields and the other two Americans, Nic Long and Corben Sharrah, survived and would race again Friday. Sixteen riders were left.

On Friday, August 19, the semi-finals got it down to eight riders, and shortly thereafter the finals ended it all. In the finals, which included two Americans — Connor Fields and Nic Long. Both Americans got off to fast starts and about 20 seconds in were in first and second position with Long holding a slight advantage. Connor passed Long, as did one Dutch rider and one Colombian, who passed him in a photo finish, so the Americans ended up with the Gold and near miss for the bronze. http://www.nbcolympics.com/news/team-usas-connor-fields-led-bmx-finals-start-finish-takes-home-gold

On the woman’s side, American Alise Post took home a silver, so it was an excellent showing for Team USA. I’m sure Alise has her own story and it’s every bit as exciting as Connor’s, but I’ve never met her and didn’t follow the women’s races at all.

We’re going to try to get Connor Fields as a guest on the radio show. It isn’t really about gambling, but his dad is a sponsor of the show, and hey, how many Olympic champions have you met? I want to ask him about the final race.

When he and Nic Young were neck and neck with 10 seconds to go, it’s possible Connor knew he was going to win. You know your teammates pretty well and Fields is a better finisher than Young is. But what if it was neck and neck with 3 seconds to go? You and your teammate are both going for the gold — and you felt that a well-timed elbow would push you by your teammate.

If it was for the Olympic gold, would you elbow your teammate?

(I mentioned earlier that I made some money gambling on this. With a friend, I took Connor Fields against the field at 5-1. I risked $10 (which I would have paid if Connor lost) and collected $50 when he won. It probably wasn’t a good bet, odds-wise, but sports are more exciting when you have a little wager on it, and this was pocket-change money between friends. The $50 win is nice, but I’m REALLY happy for Connor and Mike Fields!)

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Quitting When I’m Ahead

You’ve heard the expression “Quit when you’re ahead,” applied to gambling. You’ve also heard, “When you’re on a hot streak, keep firing away!” These two bromides give opposite advice on what you should do when you actually hit a big jackpot. The first says go home. The second says stay and keep playing. Continue reading Quitting When I’m Ahead