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Is It Worth It?

I was playing a very nice $5 progressive at Circa. It was on the 165-foot bar at the west end of their casino’s lower level. In addition to containing slots and blackjack, the machines have numerous video poker denominations from 25¢ to $5, and each denomination has numerous games all connected to the same progressives. The progressives on these machines are linked to similar machines at the Golden Gate (directly across Fremont Street) and the D (also on Fremont Street, but two blocks east).

When I started play on Valentine’s Day, the progressive was at $38,800 and the best game to play was 8/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. I’d been tipped off by a friend. I know the 9/6 non-progressive version of this game very well, and practiced at this progressive level for a bit before I drove to the casino. 

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What Time Is It?

It was approaching midnight recently as I played a progressive at a Las Vegas casino. This was a casino that changed multipliers every day, and today I was receiving the highest possible multiplier. Tomorrow my multiplier was likely to be smaller. It didn’t have to be, but I wouldn’t know what it would be until I swiped after midnight. It was not a casino where you had to swipe for your multiplier before you started playing, but rather one where you just had to swipe before you left.

The progressive was high enough that it was worth playing whatever the multiplier was, but obviously, the bigger the multiplier the better. 

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Chasing a Progressive

There are hundreds of video poker progressives in greater Las Vegas. As a general rule, I avoid these games. Progressives are not my bread and butter. Still, I occasionally do sit down at a progressive that catches my eye, and recently there was such a case.

A $2 9/5 DDB progressive at the South Point was at more than $16,000 for the royal, with additional progressives for aces with a kicker and 2s, 3s, and 4s with a kicker. Putting all the numbers into computer software showed the game was currently worth about 100.80%, plus a 0.30% slot club. Additionally, in general the more coin-in you have, the better your mailers are. So, I sat down.

I had enough cash on hand, I thought, including the availability of markers. I was used to DDB itself, which has a variance of a bit more than 40. Doubling the royal jacks up the variance to around 100. Although I have the tools to figure out bankroll for this, I wasn’t near my computer and I had to wing it. I figured I was up to playing for four or five hours. If the royal hadn’t been hit by then, I’d reevaluate whether or not I wanted to continue.

There are 20 machines connected to this progressive and perhaps a third of the seats were taken when I got there at 10 p.m. on a Saturday evening. At midnight, half of the machines were taken, and the progressive was more than $18,000. The 2s, 3s, and 4s, with a kicker progressive had been hit a few times. It started out at $1,600 and was usually hit by $1,700. The difference between this jackpot at $1,600 and the same jackpot at $1,700 is 0.14%. Not chopped liver, but it’s not the primary prize.

Aces with a kicker were worth more than $5,000. That added more than 0.6%, but even without that, the royal progressive was high enough that the game was worth playing. When the aces were knocked off, the royal progressive was more than $19,000, which is worth about 101% even without the lesser jackpots.

At about 2 a.m., the royal reached $20,000. About 2/3 of the seats were full and at that point, somebody hit the royal. Time to go home.

I had run $40,000 coin-in through the machine. I failed to hit any W2G (regular aces are worth $1,600, in addition to the other jackpots already discussed.) My score was $7,100 in the soup. No fun. But not really a big deal. DDB is a heaven-or-hell game, and special quads and the royals add a lot to the EV. Blanking on those is expensive in the short run.

Generally speaking, when playing a progressive, the person hitting the royal comes out way ahead and the others lose. In this case, the guy who knocked off the aces with a kicker was also probably ahead, but most of the rest of us lost. Such is the nature of playing DDB progressives. Play the game enough and you’ll get your share.

I recognized more than half of the players when the royal was finally hit. Some I hadn’t seen for several years. I assume most of them knew who I was, as I’m well-known in the Las Vegas video poker community, although not in the video poker progressive-playing community. I don’t know this for a fact, but it wouldn’t surprise me if a few phone calls had been made in the nature of, “You better come down here. It is so juicy even Bob Dancer is playing it.”

Am I going to do this again soon? Doubtful. But maybe. It’s a positive play, albeit one with large swings. Between casinos restricting players and the general tightening of machines, it’s hard to find good video poker opportunities in Las Vegas these days. This is one avenue to stay in the game, although it’s not my first choice.

We’ll see.

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He Screwed Me!

I rarely play two video poker machines at once. One exception is when the South Point runs their “Money Madness” promotion, where they have a casino-wide progressive that must hit between $10,000 and $25,000 (along with a smaller progressive as well.)

If you’re playing and somebody else hits the progressive, which is usually going to be the case, you still get $25 in free play as a consolation prize. So, playing on both my card and Bonnie’s doubles my chances for that $25 bonus. And if the game I’m playing generates relatively frequent W2Gs, that’s all the more reason to want a second machine.

One of those situations occurred last February 19, which was Presidents’ Day, and the casino was offering 2x points, which was worth 0.6% there. Other casinos were offering 6x points, which amounts to the same thing, but the South Point has a bigger variety of better games to play.

I got there about 2 a.m., planning on playing twelve or so hours if I could. When I was younger, I planned on longer shifts, but only being able to play twelve hours at a time now is hardly the biggest compromise I’ve had to make as a senior citizen.

There are several acceptable games to play on such a day. One of them is Ultimate X where they have two 25¢ Ten Play machines. It’s a lucrative pay schedule, but it’s $25-per-pull price tag and sky-high volatility makes it more expensive than many players wish to tackle. Still, they are popular machines with many players playing 5¢ or 10¢ variations which have considerably lesser pay schedules.

About 15 minutes into me playing both machines, a guy who I’ll call Ed, said, “You’re not really planning on playing both of those all night, are you?”

That’s not at all the same as saying, “May I play one of those machines?” to which my answer was always going to be, “Of course.” I appreciate that the South Point sponsors both my podcast and my classes and quite simply I’m not going to get into any argument on the floor that might encourage the bosses to conclude that I’m too much trouble.

Whether Ed’s question met my definition as a proper request, it’s possible he meant it as such. I asked him if he wanted to play one and he nodded, so I picked the machine on which I wished to continue, played off my multipliers on the other, cashed out, and consolidated.

After some initial pleasantries, I went back to playing my machine. Although I can play quite a few different games at a high level, one price of playing so many is that if I don’t concentrate on what I’m doing, I can easily get the strategies mixed up.

Ed, however, liked to talk.

Talk, talk, talk, talk, talk.

Soon after he got there, somebody nearby got a jackpot, so there were extra casino workers around. He asked anybody who was listening whether they heard about the actress who stabbed her husband that morning? Nobody had heard. Ed said he thinks it was “Reese somebody.” The floorman ventured “Witherspoon?” Ed replied, “No silly. With her knife!”

Did I mention he never shut up?

After the initial couple of minutes, I simply hunkered down in front of the machine and ignored everything he said. He’d ask direct questions, such as, “Why did you play the hand that way?” or “I heard it was your birthday last week. Anything interesting happen?” or “Have you had any big jackpots on these machines?” I didn’t respond to any of these. I couldn’t make him shut up, but if I didn’t answer back, perhaps he’d take the hint after an hour or three.

He decided to tell me about a recent situation when he played two machines simultaneously at a casino in Laughlin. There was a hot seat promotion, where $100 in free play is awarded randomly every so many minutes, and he was playing on both his card and his wife’s card, even though she was 100 miles away.

He was asked to give up one of the machines and he said he was holding one for his wife. The player was persistent, but Ed wouldn’t budge. The player went to the shift manager, who came back and said that house policy was that you could only play one machine at a time if somebody else wished to play one. Ed’s name was now recorded by the casino and if this happens again, he will be restricted from the club.

So, Ed moved over and let the other player have one of the machines. The player inserted $5, played one hand, lost, and then stood up and told Ed, “That’s my limit. You can have the machine back again.”

“You went to all that trouble and you only wanted to play five dollars?” Ed’s voice became animated. Even so, I kept playing my machine without comment.

“This guy screwed me!” Ed ranted. “Five lousy dollars was all he wanted to play and now the casino has my name down as a trouble maker. It’s so unfair!”

While I was NOT going to discuss it with Ed at the time, which would have kept him going for another hour or two protesting how he got screwed, I think Ed brought it on himself.

He lied to keep an extra machine, basically taking a shot. Sometimes when you take a shot, things backfire. That’s what happened here.

You cannot wait until everything plays out and then demand a Mulligan in order to try again. You have to make your decisions before you know exactly what’s going to happen.

And if your decision turns out badly? Well sometimes gambling works that way and sometimes life works that way. Nobody screwed him. I think the phrase, “Hoist on his own petard!” is apt here. And since he wouldn’t shut up, I can’t say I felt sorry for him at all!