Tag: super times pay

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How I Do It

What I’m going to talk about today is a personal preference. It definitely works for me. I have no idea if it is something that would work for most people or not, but you take a gander and see if it’s a possibility for you.

One of the games I play at South Point is Multi Strike. Although I play the 25¢ 9/6 Jacks or Better Five Play version of Multi Strike, the technique I’m espousing works on any version of the game. It also works on Super Times Pay and Double Super Times Pay, along with a few others.

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Games I Prefer

Generally, I’m going to play the game that returns the most — including slot club, promotions, and mailer. Sometimes, however, I have a choice between a few different games that return about the same amount.  Here is my approximate ranking — your mileage may vary.

Hundred Play > Fifty Play > Ten Play > Five Play > Triple Play > single line games. Assuming the same return, the more lines the better. This increases the fun and decreases the variance.

I prefer these over Double Super Times Pay and Super Times Pay. Keep in mind, though, that if it’s the same pay schedule, the DSTP version adds about 0.5% and the STP versions adds half that. These additions more than make up for the fact that these aren’t my favorite games. The reason for my lack of excitement on these games is the speed. Whenever you get a multiplier, it takes five seconds or so for the exact multiplier to be “squeezed” out and made visible. I’d prefer to have that five seconds to play another hand.

Quick Quads > Ultimate X. Since neither game regularly comes in good pay schedules (other than at the South Point), the choice is moot for most people who seriously value winning. Quick Quads has a different strategy — but not a greatly different one. The sound Quick Quads makes when you get a Quick Quads (namely three of a kind where the ranks of the other two cards add up to the rank of the trips) strikes the right level of excitement and non-annoyingness. Ultimate X is a game with a sky-high variance and the strategy for the game is quite a bit different than regular video poker games. You have to be in the mood to play and willing to lose a great amount today, even with a good pay schedule.

Spin Poker is okay, but not nearly as attractive to me as Ten Play.

I usually avoid Dream Card as I find the sound effects annoying.

Multi Strike is an interesting game, but it’s slow. Keeping four strategies straight requires some effort, although it’s not impossible. If I’m playing while tired, though, I’ll sometimes make mistakes on this game.

I prefer slant tops to uprights to bar tops. Bar-top machines, even with good pay schedules, have stickier than average buttons due to drinks being spilled on them. I can play longer on slant tops than I can on uprights.

I prefer adjustable seats to non-adjustable. I am taller than average and prefer a higher chair than average.

Each of these game-types come with several different games.  That is, you can find Double Double Bonus, Jacks or Better, Deuces Wild, etc., in most of these game types.

Deuces Wild is generally my favorite game. (It doesn’t exist in Quick Quads.) What makes it interesting to me is you never know what you will get. Start with two deuces and you can end up with anything from 3-of-a-kind to four deuces — meaning anywhere from five coins to 1,000 — per line.

Jacks or Better — This game is arguably the simplest and has the lowest variance. Some people get bored with the variance, but not me. Since I’m playing games where the slot club and other goodies give me an advantage, it’s plenty okay just to grind it out.

Double Double Bonus — This is the most popular video poker game in the country. I generally avoid it because it rarely returns more than 99%. When found in a better version, or with a GREAT promotion, this game is fun. Better have your seat belt on though. It has a lot of variance.

I will play other games, of course, if they happen to be the best game at a casino. Exactly which one it is doesn’t matter much to me. If I can learn the strategy, I can play it. If learning additional games doesn’t come easily to you, you might limit your selection to the games you already know.

There are games like Ultimate X Bonus Streak and others where the correct strategy is unknown — at least by me. I do not have the computer programming skills to work it out, and commercially available software does not contain these games. To get good at a game I need a computer to correct me when I make a mistake.

As I said at the beginning, the total return of the game is the most important thing to me. It matters to me not at all if your favorite games are different than mine.

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A Question from a Reader

Many of you know that, in addition to being posted on bobdancer.com, my columns are published on the gamblingwithanedge.com website. This site allows for readers to post comments. One recent comment by someone who used the name “Jerry,” read as follows:

 

This is off-topic but I wanted to get your opinion on VP for Winners. I have been playing a particular game at a particular casino for over two years now with excellent results on about two million in coin-in on two years of win-loss statements. I have a degree in math so I know that this is a significant sample space. The game is rated at 99.256% on VPW. My results have been 97.133% (without handpay & freeplay); 100.925% (with handpay); 102.297% (with handplay & freeplay). Since this game includes a variable multiplier, is it possible that it has been under-rated by VPW?

 

The only game with variable multipliers on VPW is Super Times Pay. The return on 9/6 Double Double Bonus is indeed 99.256%, so that is the game I assume Jerry is talking about.

Jerry makes several statements. Let’s look at them one by one. First, he’s using Win-Loss statements as an accurate reflection of his actual play. Over the years I’ve found less than 10% of such statements to closely track with my own daily figures. Assuming that one from an unnamed casino provides accurate information is not an assumption I’m willing to make.

Second, is $2 million a significant sample space? It probably would be if you were talking about quarter Ten Play. It probably wouldn’t be if you were talking dollars or higher.

Remember multipliers only come about in this game every 15 hands or so. And the ones that do come about are heavily weighted towards the “lower end,” meaning 2x and 3x, while the higher-end multipliers 8x and 10x are fairly rare. According to the Wizard of Odds website, these are the frequencies for each of the multipliers:

Super Times Pay — Actual Multiplier Probabilities

MUTLIPLIER PROBABILITY EXPECTED
2 17% 0.34
3 33% 0.99
4 16% 0.64
5 24% 1.2
8 6% 0.48
10 4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.05

Adding the top two multipliers together, they occur 10% of the time, meaning every 150 hands or so. The mini-jackpot in DDB, called aces with a kicker, occurs slightly less than once every 16,000 hands. Remembering that the big multipliers only occur every 150 hands and each hand costs $6 to play, this means “one cycle” of aces with a kicker in this game is 16,000 * 150 * $6 = $14,400,000. Calling one seventh of one cycle significant is a misuse of the term. It might be a significant amount of play to Jerry, but mathematically it is insignificant.

STP comes in Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play. In addition to aces with a kicker, dealt quads and/or royals are important as to whether or not they come with a multiplier. Being fortunate to get dealt deuces, for example, with or without a kicker, with an 8x multiplier in effect, is going to give you a much higher positive result than average numbers predict.

I don’t know what big hands Jerry received, but I strongly suspect they included big hands with big multipliers. This is called “positive variance,” meaning that in the time Jerry has played, he has been luckier than average. It happens. Congratulations!

Jerry also mentions free play given by this particular casino. This is definitely not part of the VPW calculation but is an important consideration in the overall return of the game.

The calculation of the value of STP is fairly straightforward for a computer program. The Wizard of Odds site lists the return on this game as 99.26%, which is consistent with VPW’s 99.256% given that they are displayed with a different number of significant digits. I trust the figures of VPW and suggest that you should too.

Going forward, Jerry, you should assume your results will be 99.256% (assuming you play perfectly — which is also far from a given for most players). The free play will be additional. Your actual results over a period as short as $2 million in coin-in will not be the same as that, but that’s the best guess going forward.

Do NOT assume that your 100.925% results will continue. It COULD equal that in the short term, but it’s unlikely and you won’t know for sure until you play the hands.

I assure you that there will be other games and/or casinos where your results will indicate negative variance. It’s just part of the game.

Your figures imply that free play at that casino is 1.3%. Possible, I suppose, but pretty rare. A lot of us would like to know where a casino pays that much on a game that returns 99.256%. Also realize that a 2.3% edge on $2 million of coin-in implies you are ahead $46,000 at this casino. Many casinos will restrict you, figuring you are “too good.”

At most casinos you will be on their radar. If their free play is actually 1.3%, even on a 99.256% game, the casino is giving away the store. Eventually they will wake up. If you are someone who has been hammering this game, you will be the first one eliminated.

Players differ on how to react to such a good play. Some play as hard as they can because they figure it’s going to go away pretty soon and they better milk it while they can. Others believe that if they take small nibbles out of the game, it will last longer and give them more profit in the long run. You’re going to have to make your own call on this.