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A Look at Bill Robertie’s New Series on Backgammon Openings

It was not my intention to spend a lot of time on backgammon, as backgammon is not my game of choice — nor is it really much of a gambling game anymore. But just as we were preparing to air two GWAE shows with Bob Wachtel on his Backgammon Chronicles, Richard and I received a review copy of Bill Robertie’s first book in his series How to Play the Openings in Backgammon.

Robertie is a two-time world champion in backgammon and author of numerous books on the game. In addition, he’s published several books on chess and co-authored a popular series of poker books with Dan Harrington. He’s the publisher for Gammon Press and moderates the backgammon forum on the Two Plus Two website. Simply put, he’s at the pinnacle of gaming/gambling writers. 

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Ways Casinos Can Restrict You

I’m writing this as all Nevada casinos are closed for business. It feels weird. It’s the first time this has happened in my lifetime. Nevada was a few days behind several other states that have also closed casinos. More than one dozen Las Vegas casinos voluntarily closed before the governor’s order.

Since, because of the governor’s order, Nevada casinos won’t let you in these days, I began to list other ways a casino can kick out video poker players — although usually one at a time.

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Will Playable Video Poker Return After COVID-19?

The coronavirus has shut down casinos across the world. Even if they are allowed to open up again in a month or two, they will have sustained significant losses. Some estimates are that it will take up to two years for Nevada casinos to recover. If they stay closed for longer than two months, it will take much longer than that.

This means some casinos will not reopen at all. If they were cash-strapped and struggling before the pandemic, they just might be pushed over the edge. Expect many casino bankruptcies in 2020 and 2021. 

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How it Should Be Done

I was playing video poker at a Dotty’s — a chain of 15-machine bar/casinos where I can still eke out an edge. I was playing high stakes for there ($50 a hand) at about 4 a.m. one Sunday morning, sitting off in a corner where the rest of the place spread out before me.

Directly across from me, a lady I’ll call Susan, called the bartender over and said her machine had shorted her a hundred dollars. It didn’t involve me and I didn’t have any information about it, so I watched silently. Voices weren’t raised, but I could still hear things clearly.

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Is it Good for Me or Good for Us?

Not too long ago, here I wrote an article about when to hold a kicker to three aces while playing a Double Double Bonus progressive. The thumbnail conclusion was that if four aces pay 800 coins, and the aces-with-a-kicker (AWAK) progressive is at least 2285 coins, from a hand like AAA53, you should hold AAA3.

Whether you understood the article or not, assume for today that the previous sentence is true and that you and Al (whom you’ll meet shortly) both believe that and play that way.

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What Time Is It?

It was approaching midnight recently as I played a progressive at a Las Vegas casino. This was a casino that changed multipliers every day, and today I was receiving the highest possible multiplier. Tomorrow my multiplier was likely to be smaller. It didn’t have to be, but I wouldn’t know what it would be until I swiped after midnight. It was not a casino where you had to swipe for your multiplier before you started playing, but rather one where you just had to swipe before you left.

The progressive was high enough that it was worth playing whatever the multiplier was, but obviously, the bigger the multiplier the better. 

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The Math is Meaningless!

An interesting article was recently published by FrankB on the gamblingwithanedge.com blog. (I think of that page as “my page” because GWAE is “my show.” In fact, I’m only a co-host on the show and one of many gambling experts who publish on that page — which is hosted by Anthony Curtis’ Las Vegas Advisor. Whether it’s my page or not, I’m proud to be associated with it.)

FrankB is a friend, and quite expert at figuring out combinational mathematics, among other things. Doing it the way he did, his 1-in-288 million is computationally correct. But I have a major bone to pick with doing it that way.

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It’s Not About Trying

I was teaching an NSU Deuces Wild (the 16-10-4-4-3 version that returns 99.73% with perfect play), and was discussing the hand 3♥ 5♥ 7♥ K♣ Q♣. The correct play, by a mile, is to hold the hearts. One player raised his hand and said: 

“But just what are you trying to get holding the hearts? You’re mainly going to get low-valued hands and the highest possibility is only worth $50. Why don’t you go for the KQ and try for a $4,000 royal flush? It doesn’t happen very often, I realize, but the possibility is there and when you hit it, you feel good!”

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Too Good to be True

Somebody sent me this photo of what was undoubtedly a casino mistake. It was sent several weeks before the publish date of this article, so there’s no chance of it still being around. But it’s worth discussing anyway.

There is a bank of eight machines with a nickel 8/5 Double Double Bonus progressive poker game.  This is normally a 96.79% game before you include the progressives, which is fairly typical for a nickel pay schedule.

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A Look at Cheaters Always Win by J. M. Fenster

Richard Munchkin and I were sent review copies of this book in order for us to determine if we wanted the author on our Gambling with an Edge podcast. It turned out I liked the book very much, recommend it, but don’t feel it’s appropriate for the show.

There is some gambling-related content to the book, but generally these are anecdotes about gamblers who cheated. Some of the anecdotes I had heard before. Some I hadn’t. But these kinds of anecdotes don’t lend themselves to follow-up questions. 

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