As I told you last week, I was recently reading Colin Jones’ new book, The 21st Century Card Counter, preparing to interview him for the GWAE podcast. Although Colin is addressing his comments towards blackjack players, a lot of the general information is useful to video poker players as well. Today’s column was inspired by his Chapter 7: Traveling as a Card Counter.
The first thing I want to address is how much money you should take with you to a casino. If you have access to markers (casino speak for IOUs) at the casino, then you take as little as possible. If you collect money at the start of your play and turn it in at the end, there is less chance for it to be stolen from you between here and there.
But markers are a major difference between video poker players and card players. If you play big enough to use markers, in video poker you’re going to be getting W2Gs that require you to show ID. Therefore, showing ID at the cage is something video poker players have to put up with in order to do business. Many times, blackjack players do not play rated — meaning they do not give their identity to the casino. These people are not willing to show ID at the cage, so that precludes getting markers. For some reason casinos do not respond well to a request such as, “I’m not going to tell you who I am, but I want to borrow $20,000 in cash for a few days.”
So, let’s assume for the current discussion that we are not talking about markers. You’re going to be playing a game where, even if things go really badly, there’s a 99% chance that you will lose less than $5,000 today. (You can get such numbers from the Video Poker for Winners software, or another good product is Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker.)
If that’s your only play today, it’s unnecessarily risky to start the day with $10,000 in your pocket. Nothing good can happen from having that extra money on you, and we all can think of plenty of bad things. One time in a hundred you’re going to run out of money with “only” $5,000. (That’s basically what having a 99% chance of it not happening means.) Unfortunate, but a cheap enough price to pay for the unpredictable, but real, chance that you could lose that money to either carelessness or malfeasance on the part of others.
Another point on this subject that Jones drives home is to be aware of your surroundings. If you get paid for a big jackpot, it can be noticed by others who want to separate you from your winnings. For this reason, if I hit a jackpot of $8,000 or higher, I ask if I can be paid “in private,” which can mean different things in different casinos. Having a slot attendant loudly counting out, “One hundred, two hundred, three hundred . . . “in front of anybody in the vicinity creates some risk.
In the era of cell phones, it’s very possible for somebody to text, “A 40-something guy in a green shirt with brown pants is carrying a lot of money. I’ll let you know when he’s heading towards the parking lot.” (That would not be me. It’s been decades since someone identified me as being 40-something, and it’s extremely rare that I wear brown pants.) So, your attacker may well be someone who wasn’t present when you were paid, but who found out from somebody else.
After a big winning session, I frequently stroll through the casino, zigging and zagging, too see if anybody is following me. Many times, I’ve approached a security guard and said, “I would like an escort to my car, and if you bring along another guard, I have tip money for both of you.”
If there is a parking garage elevator and there’s another guy waiting there who I don’t know, I’ll frequently “remember” something to do just as the elevator comes and let him go up alone. If there’s a large group in the elevator, I feel safer. If you’re healthy enough, walking the stairs in a parking garage is safer than taking the elevator, plus it’s rare enough that you can easily see if somebody is following you.
If you are mugged in an elevator, be sure to report it to security. Many casinos have cameras in the elevators and that can go a long way towards verifying your story and possibly apprehending the culprit.
There were certainly more things in this chapter that are worth remembering, but these were the items that tickled my “I haven’t written about that recently” button. Thank you, Colin.
Casino safety.
Getting paid in private? Good idea,but we have different ideas in what a lot of money is.
8 K? That is 2 weeks worth of gambling budget for me! That’s checking out early and going home time!
2 K and I’ll stay in town.
Casino credit(MARKERS) is really handy to avoid those ATM fees.I have used that at the tables and they give me chips to play in 5 minutes.Just sign for it.
Yes,a security guard can walk you to your car,with a tip.
Why not just ask for a certified check,instead of cash?Will they do that Bob?
I get a check for 8K and over.
Don’t scream, or at least don’t keep screaming, when you hit a jackpot. Your fellow players will thank you and you won’t attract a lurker so easily. Be happy, just don’t scream for 15 minutes.
Why a parking garage instead of valet.
Let me respond to all four comments here. and thank you for them.
whether I get a cash or check depends on my “cash on hand” situation depending on what I expect to be playing in the near future. If I’m going to be play $5 or higher machines in the near future at casinos I don’t have marker-privileges at, I need a lot of cash which needs to be replenished periodically. I keep the cash in a few safety deposit boxes around town.
keep in mind that generally I’ve been losing between royals and a $8,000 royal is just re-stocking the kitty.
I prefer the parking garage in case I feel the need to leave quickly, for whatever reason.
The “quit while your ahead” philosophy espoused by one of the posters is hardly a successful strategy for long term winning. Unless situations have changed (because, perhaps, you just hit a progressive royal and the game at reset isn’t so great — or maybe the promotion is tied to royals and it is maximum one bonus per day — or whatever), if the game was good before an $8,000 jackpot, it’s still good. Successful gamblers play when the odds favor them and paying a whole lot of attention as to whether or not you’re ahead of where you were when you woke up this morning doesn’t generally factor into the equation.
the part about not screaming is a good one. I’m personally not a screamer, but I’ve definitely been around screamers before and they attract a lot of attention — which I don’t want at such times. I generally bang the machine once in exuberance or give a mildly audible ‘yes!’ Either of those reactions is an act. Not an Oscar-winning performance, but definitely more than just sitting there passively. Remember, a jackpot of this size is really exciting to most people. If you act as though it’s nothing that screams ‘pro’ and that’s not good for your survive-abllity.
I’m the guy who wrote about the “quit while your ahead” philosophy, except that it’s actually “quit while you’re ahead” (“you are” instead of “your”). Bob, your paragraph about this shows that you simply are in different world than me and you don’t understand what I was talking about. In your world, you always play high-stakes max-coin VP and you usually have a goal of playing for a certain amount of time or until a certain amount of coin-in is achieved. You admit to sometimes playing long hours. All of those elements are different from mine. In your world, you wouldn’t ever stop when you’re ahead because you have a compulsion (either time or coin-in) to keep on playing, while I do not have that need. Quitting while you’re ahead (or changing to a different machine) means that you have locked-in whatever profit you made on that machine, no matter how big or how small. If you stop and go home or to your hotel room, that’s your profit for the day. If you change to another machine, you’ve achieved a profit so far; when you start playing on a new machine, you begin that machine even-steven with the machine; its CPU and RNG are not linked to those in the machine you just left, so you are not doomed to lose at the new machine just so the odds happen. No, if you switch from machine to machine after a profit, you will accumulate profit, and be ahead. This is something that you either see or you don’t, just like with that puzzle in which you and 2 others are each given an envelope, just one contains money, you’re told that Person #2’s envelope doesn’t have the money, so would you swap envelopes with Person #3? The clear answer is “Yes”, but half or more of all people just can’t see it.
All of this is a bunch of hogwash.
Al,
How does quitting while you are ahead lock in a profit? Are you never going to play again? In that case, I agree. But to set up a sub grouping of your play as a way to keep score doesn’t make any sense, at least from a numbers stand point. I have had this discussion several times with different people so I will ask the same questions I ask them.
First, does playing $5000 coin today and $5000 coin in tomorrow differ in expected value from playing $10,000 coin in today?
Second, if I play $3000 coin in today and I’m up $500, does playing another $2000 coin in have a different expectation than the first $3000 I played?
If ‘locking in a profit’ is the goal, as soon as you are up ANY amount, you should cash out and switch machines. That way you ‘lock in your profit’
What you are saying is that session length changes expectation and in a fair game, that is not true. Whenever you play video poker, you are really playing a whole lot of 1 hand sessions. You win some and you lose some. But hand 4 results don’t affect the results on hand 30.
If you believe that video poker is fair and independent, session length and win/loss status have zero affect on EV. If you don’t believe VP is fair and independent, you should not be playing the game.
Jimmy Jazz,
Your message is typical of the many responses I’ve received over the last 2 decades, but in a manner I’m referring mainly to that you might not think it is. You guys all get the impression that I think I can change the EV (or some similar thought), and so you discuss EV in your response, but you don’t realize that I didn’t say anything about EV at all. Notice how many times you referred to expectation, while I never discussed any form of that word. “What you are saying is that session length changes expectation.” No, I never said or implied that notion; you are pulling that thought out of your memory, not out of my post; I didn’t say it because I don’t believe it, because the 2 concepts don’t have anything to do with each other. “hand 4 results don’t affect the results on hand 30.” I never said that this notion is true (because I don’t believe it’s true), so why are you telling me it’s false? “session length and win/loss status have zero affect on EV.” Of course they don’t, and I didn’t say that they did. “First, does playing $5000 coin today and $5000 coin in tomorrow differ in expected value from playing $10,000 coin in today?” That question is all about EV, which I never discussed. (For the record, the answer is “of course not”.) “Second, if I play $3000 coin in today and I’m up $500, does playing another $2000 coin in have a different expectation than the first $3000 I played?” Again, I’m not discussing EV; only you are. EV means nothing to me except for choosing to play THIS machine over THAT machine, but right now I do not play until I’ve achieved a large round number of coin in. The answer to this 2nd question is different: IT DEPENDS. Except if you made your $500 profit in 1 big hit (royal, or aces with kicker), your profit was made via a long stretch of play in which you got much-better-than-usual results, so if you made that profit on 1 machine, then you should expect that machine to likely go into a losing session, because machines cannot continuously give you gradual but large profit, hour after hour; all machines will have stretches of time that are losers for you, and losing sessions will be more than 50% of the time. Therefore, if you’d made a nice profit (like $500) you should definitely change machines. You cannot both decide to stop when you have achieved a profit, and decide to stop when you’ve achieved X amount of coin in (e.g., $3,000), because slightly more than 50% of the time, when you have played exactly your goal of coin-in, you will be behind. “If ‘locking in a profit’ is the goal, as soon as you are up ANY amount, you should cash out and switch machines. That way you ‘lock in your profit’.” You speak the truth! But that’s obviously neither possible nor practical; we all would get tired of changing machines so many times. So instead, think of playing longer and/or for a decent profit. If I get 100 quarters ($25) ahead, that’s enough profit to “lock it up” and move to another machine. But if I’ve been on a machine for a long time and am behind, then if I ever do get ahead (because of a quad or higher), then I will stop and change machines, no matter how small the profit is. (And, yes, it is possible that some machine sessions will never get you into the black, no matter how long your session is; but those sessions are the minority, at least with the way I play.) Finally: “How does quitting while you are ahead lock in a profit?” Neighbor, that is a tautology. The question is: Why can’t you see it? Whenever we say that we made a profit, we are always talking about a session or a day, not something longer, no matter what sport or endeavor we’re talking about. If you played at a craps table for 2 hours and were $100 ahead and then you stopped and left, then you made a $100 profit at that craps table. Period. You locked in that profit because you left instead of continued playing. That is clearer than glass. So you should be able to see that. Why you can’t, I don’t know.
AI,
You wrote :
If you change to another machine, you’ve achieved a profit so far; when you start playing on a new machine, you begin that machine even-steven with the machine; its CPU and RNG are not linked to those in the machine you just left, so you are not doomed to lose at the new machine just so the odds happen. No, if you switch from machine to machine after a profit, you will accumulate profit, and be ahead.
What is true is that the CPU and RNG are not linked between the machines. I agree with that. But again, your statement is that if you play machine A ( 500 hands of quarter single line) and are up $100, you should switch to machine B. And the reason to switch is because your results on machine B for the next 500 hands will be better than playing 500 hands on machine A. Why? Do you believe that a machine has a certain number of good hands and as they are hit, they become less likely to occur? Then you don’t believe that the machine hands are independent. Your making the statement that which machine you play makes a difference. Again, this would mean that the game is not fair and independent. The definition of independent means that the results of hand 100 are not affected by the previous 99 hands. Your post shows that you believe differently. What makes the next hand different? If you believe the machines are fair and independent, your statements are nonsense. If don’t believe they are fair and independent, why would you play them?
If you have 100 vp machines, with the same game and they are played perfectly for 10,000 hands each, the results of each machine will be different but no particular machine is ‘better’ than the other and those results should not be an influence on which machine you play in the future, if the machines are random and independent.
Per your request, I didn’t mention EV at all. If you want to use results as the basis for your decisions, you will have many followers but you don’t have any control over the results.
Here’s another way to look at it. We decide to bet on a coin flip. You flip and I call. And let’s say this is a fair coin and you flip it so that the result is random enough not to skew the results. But you will pay $11 when I call it correctly and I give you $10 when I call it incorrectly. You flip 20 times and I call it correctly 7 times for a net result of a $53 loss for me ( 7 * 11 – 13 * 10). I would be happy to flip 20 more times. Or 200 more times. Or 2000 more times.
The reason I don’t ‘see’ what you are stating is that it doesn’t make any sense mathematically. Now, if you believe you can tell which machines are hot, or you are in a hot streak, then you have powers that I don’t. But from a numbers standpoint, there are no hot streaks or hot machines. There are a long string of single hands which are all independent from the previous hands.
Screamers are funny, mostly tweakers. Nootropics and gambling go well together, so I’ve heard.
Good stuff, Bob. And thanks for the shoutout. Much appreciated.
One thing I’ve worried about is whether parading through the casino with a security escort to my car might bring even more attention to me as a money target. A few years ago I had a $35K windfall at a somewhat seedy East Coast casino. I thought that an escort to my parked car might be prudent. I shared my concern with the security guard, and asked her if she minded if I acted drunk, to make it look like that was the reason I was being escorted out. She liked the idea, and I wobble-legged my way to the exit with her holding my elbow.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
About walking to a parking garage appearing drunk: That is not a good idea, because drunks are known to be compromised in their faculties and thus easy prey for mugging and robbing. You’d be better off appearing fearless and composed as if you know martial arts. Not to be sexist, but being escorted by a female guard usually isn’t worth much because most men are much bigger, heavier and stronger than most women, and her wearing a uniform won’t change that. Something you can and should do IS learn some martial art, even a self-defense class. (If you’re super-nonviolent, you can learn judo or aikido.) And it’s good to carry red pepper spray, and/or a legal non-lethal weapon. WOMEN: Do not wear high heels; it’s the most idiotic idea ever conceived, even more idiotic if you follow it; these things prevent you from being able to run, and put you at a further disadvantage if assaulted. If feasible (not too many bills), you can make 2 rolls of paper money and put one in the arch of each foot, inside your socks; when have you ever heard of a crook removing someone’s socks in trying to get their cash? (WOMEN: don’t wear stockings because you can’t use this trick. Wear shoes and socks like guys do. You’re in a casino, not at a ball.) But maybe best of all: Can’t the casino mail a cashier’s check to your home or POB? P.S.: BOB DANCER: Why do you want to be able to leave a hotel/casino really quickly? We’re all curious!
Remove socks damn right. In the inner city, they remove bras, look in your crotch, pull off your shoes and if they don’t find the “poke” they’ll roll you over and look in your butt crack. This Big City Chiciago Police dude says so.
IMO, this article “Taking Care of Your Money” concerned the safety aspect, not so much the “quitting while you are ahead” principle,which is useful but not the main point here. I found this a refreshing departure from the value of certain promotions or brain taxing VP hand variations.
– No safety strategy is 100%, but having a guard, or a male friend, or even a female friend along will put off the common thief. They look for the easy mark, the lone one not paying attention to their surroundings.
– My friend thinks cashing TITOs is safer at the cage. I use the ATM to cash TITOs. Who can say, but I do know lurkers will sit back and watch cages and ATMs and tables,, looking for a mark. As AL said, appear confident and fearless, put the money straight into purse or pocket. Men, your back pocket is the favorite of pickpockets.
– As above, if you see someone appearing to watch YOU, or the cage, or ATM for a long time, something that JDLR, put your machine service light on. Quietly tell the attendant who shows up. They can notify security who can check it out. I SO dislike anyone standing and watching me play a machine for more than 15 seconds I will put on the service light. Those ‘lookers’ who stand right behind me are not likely to be lurkers. Just annoying.
– I don’t play at night unless I stay where I play, or my husband or someone is along with me. But that’s just me, an old baby boomer.
The classic (and sad) example was the young woman murdered after leaving the Tunica Horseshoe casino decades ago. It had many of those element discussed, seen on the casino tape AFTER the fact:
– She was alone,
– playing late into the night,
– loudly cheering at the BJ table,
– won a substantial amount;
Seen on tape was a man (THE man, it turned out) watching her at the table, following her to the cage, watching her get paid, following her out the door. He followed her car in his car. She drove (quite a ways, too) to her baby-sitter’s house to pick up her kids, was attacked in the driveway getting out of her car. He was caught, largely thanks to the surveillance tape, but some kids lost their mother.
A casino is a beehive of activity and most of us would not think about these things in time to prevent a tragedy. But, Security is there if something JDLR.
Just a note about “front money” account use when on a casino trip … Money either wired in advance to the casino or simply placed on deposit while you’re at the casino:
Another outstanding means by which to reduce the risk of carrying cash or holding it in your guest room is a front money account (may be called something different at a given casino). With the appropriate bank relationship, you may be able to wire money to a casino where you intend to play at no cost. (Otherwise, a wire typically runs about $20). You can draw on it as needed during your stay, depositing excess cash amounts should you win, and take possession of the funds at your return home. If you wired in funds to begin with, to the extent that you have that amount of funds (or more) on hand at the end of your trip, you can choose to “reverse” the original wire and return those funds at no added cost, taking home only your cash winnings above that.
When visiting LV from the East Coast and visiting more than one casino, I’ve wired to the first casino and tapped that account as needed throughout the visit. Once, when I was returning within 3 weeks, I left the cage account intact until the close of the second trip.
Bottom line, there are a number of ways a casino front money account can be used to manage trip money and reduce the amount you might hold at any given time.
A friend of mine said something that I remember 35 years later. ” If I’d had quit every gaming session a thousand ahead, or a thousand behind, I’d be worth millions today”. Very true words. There is nothing ever ever ever wrong with leaving with a win. No matter how small. And the gambling God is always around to turn and very nice 6,000 dollar win into a 6,000 dollar loss in an instant.
Well then why doesn’t the casino “quit while ahead?”
The ONLY time this makes sense is when they figure out an AP and boot him/her out. You’ll NEVER see the casino quit while ahead against a civilian. And if they do, they’re completely stupid!
PRNG are known to have flaws, in the words of a “famous person before instagram”: “Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.” – John von Neumann One flaw is “correlation of successive values”, so if you can figure out the flaws, you might have an edge, and there have been many PRNG exploits. One system is to switch back and forth between games that pay 2for1 for two pair and games that only pay 1for1 (but have higher quad payouts). If you can figure out when to switch, you might have an edge.
I’d rather just figure out when I’m going to get that dealt royal!
It’s hard to track something that’s a rare event, a dealt royal is one in 649,740 in 52 card games. You’re much better off tracking common events.You need data points. Tracking a PRNG is similar to shuffle tracking.
That chip is picking numbers so fast, it most likely picks a royal combination a few times a second.
Liz,
I don’t see what your example of switching between games in vp can take advantage of a less than robust RNG. Also, I don’t know of any major exploits in vp due RNG issues, in the last 15 years.
Jimmy Jazz,
Sorry I have to criticize your posting again, but your most recent post is defective in a way somewhat similar to the prior one. I am fascinated but dismayed by how the posts from all you guys in [whatever you want to call the group of you] are so identical in tone and content (especially content). Every single one of you has a compulsion to write as if I have said 1 or more items on your “no-no” list. You did that multiple times in your previous post (hammering away about EV/expectation), and I corrected you on all of them. So now you simply switch to a different “no-no” item that’s on your list but which I did not say. You said that I claimed that “the reason to switch is because your results on machine B for the next 500 hands will be better than playing 500 hands on machine A.” No, I did not say or imply that. You need to distinguish between the 4 categories of possibility: (1) what CAN happen; (2) what MUST happen; (3) what WILL happen; (4) what MORE LIKELY will happen (than the opposite possibility). You said that I claimed a Type 3 statement (WILL), but I did not. I cannot, and did not, say that playing on Machine B WILL produce a better result, because I don’t know what the results of playing on each of the two machines would be. What I was saying is a Type 4 statement, that it’s more reasonable to play on a different machine (after you’ve had a long winning stretch on the first one) because Machine A will eventually have to “turn south”. With Type 1 (what CAN happen), we have to say that it’s possible for a team of people to play a certain machine for a zillion hours and every session (no matter how you slice it) will be a winning one, and when they’re done playing they’ve hit a zillion royals and are millions of dollars ahead. But that theoretical possibility will not happen. Eventually, a losing session (or stretch, or streak, or whatever you want to call it) WILL happen. Ditto for the opposite: A machine theoretically could be played for a zillion hours and the players finish a shipload of money behind because all the sessions were losers; but that WON’T happen because the machine eventually WILL give quads and a royal. If you’ve been playing on a machine for a couple hours and it’s been win win win, you should not be thinking that further play will likely repeat/continue that profit; you should be thinking that a “turning south” will probably occur sometime soon. THAT’S why you should consider it better to switch machines than to stay.
Here’s your next projected item: “Do you believe that a machine has a certain number of good hands and as they are hit, they become less likely to occur? Then you don’t believe that the machine hands are independent.” Of course not. I never said anything of the sort, and I don’t believe any such thing, so why would you even postulate that? (I think the answer is because you guys think mavericks are all alike and all believe all the same weird or extreme or false beliefs.)
You wrote, “You’re making the statement that which machine you play makes a difference. Again, this would mean that the game is not fair and independent.” No it does not. The two things don’t have anything to do with each other. I am talking about something EMPIRICAL (what does or will or must happen based on actual experience or observation) and you are talking about something THEORETICAL. A person (like me), who believes a certain thing, can have a reason for believing that belief that is different from the reason you are obsessed with. I do not believe that VP machines in Nevada are not fair and independent; Nevada has the best gaming control there is. I am operating by looking at what has happened (e.g., 3 hours of all-good results) and thinking about what must eventually happen (the machine will have a downer stretch) and using that realization to go elsewhere and play afresh.
You wrote: “The definition of independent means that the results of hand 100 are not affected by the previous 99 hands. Your post shows that you believe differently.” No it does not. I never said (and never will) that a hand’s result is affected by the previous 99 hands. The previous hands aren’t emitting a causal effect, and I never said that they do. Here’s another instance of you pulling one the items on your “no-no” list out of your mind and projecting it onto me, and then hammering away against it. This is a classic Straw Man tactic, and I’m really tired of it.
You again wrote: “If [you] don’t believe they are fair and independent . . .” Again, why are you even postulating this once again, when I never said or implied that statement? (And once again, let me say: I DON’T believe that Nevada VP machines are not fair and independent.)
You wrote: “Per your request, I didn’t mention EV at all.” Dude, I did not make a social request to not say a certain word, like racist or sexist terms or cuss words. I was pointing out to you that your obsession with “EV” and “expectation” was causing you to believe something was happening when in fact it was not, so I was correcting your mind and asking it operate appropriately instead of projecting nonexistent things onto me.
You wrote: “you don’t have any control over the results.” Of course I don’t. I never said that I did. So, again, why are you telling me something that I already know? (Answer: you’re constructing a Straw Man so you can tear it down.)
Your scenario about 20 coin flips was really off. First of all, 20 flips are nothing, just like 20 hands of VP are nothing. If 19 or 20 of the flips were all heads or all tails, that would be remarkable and something to think about, but the odds are overwhelming that the results will be much less uneven, and your 7/13 split is likely enough to be considered more like normal than abnormal, and so it shouldn’t affect whether you should play the game. The edge you have is enough reason to play the game, period. But understand that coin-flipping is not comparable to VP. As you know, in VP, the greatest loss you can suffer on a hand is just your bet (say, $0.25 to $1.25 on low-denomination games). But a large percentage of “collection” hands will be profits instead of just break-even (i.e., just getting a high pair), and because some of those hands have big payouts, then the majority of hands will wind up losers. (Notice I did not say MUST be losers; in theory, the majority could be winners because anything’s possible; but in practice/experience, the majority WILL be losers, and the long-term results will tend toward the EV.)
You wrote: “The reason I don’t ‘see’ what you are stating is that it doesn’t make any sense mathematically.” Nope. The reason you don’t see that the craps player locked in his $100 profit when he left the table, or that I lock in a $25 profit when I leave a VP machine, is because you don’t want to see it. It’s both a conditioning thing and a pride thing. The society (including TV, radio, church and school), a subculture, your family, your friends, your coworkers, and the recreational groups you are in, they all condition you to believe one thing and disbelieve another thing. All these influences have conditioned Americans to dislike or even hate certain peoples and certain beliefs, like how Americans routinely depicted (and thought bad of) Russians and American Indians in the 1950s. You’re conditioned to believe that it’s OK to take pot-shots at “the opposition” (here, that means me) and OK to be disingenuous and inappropriate while you’re doing it, as you’ve done in your posts about me. You become self-righteous and superioristic. And pride is at work, too: you don’t want to admit that you might be mistaken, even partly, or that your “opponent” said something true when he disagrees with you. You’re part of an unofficial group of guys whom I long-ago labeled “the MSC’s”: the Math, Science and Computer guys. You are all amazingly alike in what you think and what you say. And you all have this weird compulsion to project statements/beliefs onto people who disagree with you, statements/beliefs that they never said or implied. You see these things in those other people (even though those things aren’t present) because either you want them to be there so that you can attack them, or else you believe that they MUST be there because all those who disagree with you are alike and thus each one of them (such as me) must have those beliefs. It seems that all you guys believe that there is no supernatural, which implies that there is no God, but you don’t want to admit that you’re atheistic because that would rub most people the wrong way and you don’t want the bad reputation. So you say that it’s a fact whatever happens (in a casino or not) is NOT done by God or any other supernatural being or force, period. And so you mock those of us who stop and say a prayer when we’ve got 4 of a royal and then give God thanks if we get that 5th card. You guys need to slow down, lighten up, and focus on what someone DID and DID NOT say, and avoid ascribing statements to them that they did not make, and avoid inferring beliefs to them that they did not say they believe. I don’t know if you can accomplish this; habits are hard to break. But I wish you’d give it a try. I’d much rather spend my time typing about discussion ideas than addressing interpersonal transgressions. I strongly recommend that you get and read an old book that was either produced by or sold by Huntington Press long ago, called “Extra Stuff”; in it you’ll get an infusion of the empirical side of things (what DOES happen) instead of just marinating in the theoretical realm.
AI, your smug, condescending tone aside, I’m going to reply to the first couple items in your post. Here are a couple of your statements:
You said that I claimed that “the reason to switch is because your results on machine B for the next 500 hands will be better than playing 500 hands on machine A.” No, I did not say or imply that. You need to distinguish between the 4 categories of possibility: (1) what CAN happen; (2) what MUST happen; (3) what WILL happen; (4) what MORE LIKELY will happen (than the opposite possibility). You said that I claimed a Type 3 statement (WILL), but I did not. I cannot, and did not, say that playing on Machine B WILL produce a better result, because I don’t know what the results of playing on each of the two machines would be. What I was saying is a Type 4 statement, that it’s more reasonable to play on a different machine (after you’ve had a long winning stretch on the first one) because Machine A will eventually have to “turn south”.
I did not make a type 3 claim as you stated above. But the type 4 claim you make is equally without merit and is really just a less assertive version. Why is it more reasonable to play on a different machine? And nothing causes machine A to ‘turn south’, a most ambiguous term. If you play 9/6 JOB on machine A and are up $100 after 1000 hands of quarter play, the next 1000 hands on machine A play the same as on machine B. The most likely outcome for machine A and machine B are the same. Machines don’t turn south. That would indicate that the next set of results are based on the previous set of results. You don’t like the math terms I use but they define the situation.
I’m sure you won’t like these words, either. And their isn’t a no-no list. Just a discussion of what happens when you play video poker.
I’ll get to the other statements in another post.
I’ve had the lock your profit discussion with several people over the years. I’d like to go through the process with you and figure out where we differ in our beliefs. I am willing to have this discussion as long as it remains civil. I can open another thread or we can move it to a different venue if you want but I think the discussion is worthwhile.
Are you up to having a civil discussion on video poker, how the games work and how you can maximize your proftis?
AI, the above challenge was directed towards you. Sorry I didn’t make that clear.
Well, I guess AI is not interested in a rational discussion about switching machines and short term profits. Not surprising.
You won’t be able to change the minds of these “hot and cold machine” theorists.
LC Larry,
I agree that I probably won’t be able to change AIs mindset on how VP machines work. What I really want to do is understand the thought process. The hot and cold guys seem to maintain that A) LV video poker is a fair game and B) the machines have hot and cold streaks. You can’t have both. No doubt, if you look at a series of VP hands, there are stretches where you have lots of winners and stretches where you have lots of losers. The hot/cold guys think they can tell when this will happen.
If you want to make a point keep it to 2 paragraphs. Bob made some valid points albeit more than 2
paragraphs. good to know strategy to get home without being robbed.
Bottom line, you need body guards like Dan Bilzerian. Also, a hot tip, don’t ever try to get a “cashier’s check”, I doubt you’ll get one anyway, but the problem is they are a cash instrument, if lost in the mail or stolen, they are gone. Some banks might try to put a “stop payment” on them, but they’ll also warn you that if they are cashed, they are gone. Getting a company check from casinos generally involves some highup’s signature and if you happen to be winning, you’re likely to get heat. They want you to take cash or freeplay because they want you to keep gambling. Also, it’s not like they are short on cash or freeplay. They have more cash than banks carry. Regulations require them to keep a boatload on hand, so they can payoff potential jackpots.
I’m going to disagree with you, Liz. Casinos that sometimes yield big jackpots are used to dealing with checks.
There are times when you have enough cash on hand and you’re going to be putting the money into a bank, or similar institution. It is MUCH easier to deposit a check for $100,000 than it is to bring in a thousand hundred dollar bills. My stock broker, Charles Schwab, doesn’t even accept cash. They’ll accept a wire transfer, but not cash.
I’ve had occasions where I’ve hit a $100,000 jackpot where I’ve said things like, “I’d like to pay off my $20,000 marker, have $20,000 walking-around money, and the rest in a check.” It takes a while to accomplish this. In places where there are equivalent adjacent machines that are currently open, I’ll slide over and play there while this is being done.
At some places, certainly not all, once I’ve signed everything, they’ll unlock the machine and let me continue playing the original machine while they are preparing the check. Other places make sure that the entire transaction is complete before they unlock the machine.
There are places I sometimes play where they DO NOT have that much cash on hand — like Dotty’s. If you hit $10,000 or more, they will need to call for backup, and a supervisor will come and handle it. If you insist on cash, you’re going to end up with a lot of twenties and five dollar bills.
One of the senior staff at a venue in this state said “We have some Dancer!” after about 10 minutes of quarter-level play at bar. Now what is one to do when they conjure images of Bob Dancer in others when playing quarters? Is it time to start teaching courses?
I always get a mix of cash and check for anything 10k or more. I get the amount of cash I reasonably need for what I expect to play in the near future and no more. Every casino where I have requested that has granted it with no problem. Security is one thing but with a win that big you are going to need to deposit it and banks hate large cash deposits. We live in a day and age where even if you are 100% up front paying all taxes as a pro gambler, a large cash deposit can and often will get you booted from that bank as well as reported to the authorities. At the stakes I played my general strategy was to deposit checks only from the occasional large hit.
Front money is a great option but even playing VP where you have to give up your name anyway, can get you kicked out as they check your name against databases which would not have been checked otherwise.
How do you tell when hot or cold streaks are about to happen? It’s called shuffle tracking. You can track a PRNG just like you can track an automatic shuffler or a human shuffler. True randomness is rare.