Things are Always Changing

Most of the specific video poker games I played two years ago are gone. The reason for this is that either casinos have downgraded the machines (e.g. changed the full house from paying 45 to paying 40) or downgraded my welcome in playing that game. 

In one casino, the downgrade in welcome was a formal trespass. Others said no mail and no comps. Others said no mail only. In some cases, I have found playable games in casinos where I am no-mailed, but not on a regular basis.

For many strong players, my experience is fairly typical. The question now is, “Where do I go from here?”

Not so long ago, I wrote about playing progressives. That remains an option. It requires a LOT of study to get up to speed on all the progressives that sometimes go positive in my area, and it requires a LOT of scouting to keep up with which progressives are positive today.

I live in Las Vegas and within 15 miles of my home are more than 30 casinos offering progressives that are sometimes appropriate and I might consider playing — in about 15 different game varieties. To check out each of them daily would take more than eight hours — including driving, parking, walking through the casinos, etc. Anybody who does this eight hours a day has no time to play.

You can team up with others, of course, assuming you can find competent people you trust who trust you and are looking for more people. Every additional person on a team dilutes the per-member revenue from each royal flush, although that may be offset by more profitable games being found and hit.

A recent case involved a guy, “Bo,” who was the fastest guy ever at finding progressive opportunities. He could zip through a casino as quickly as a sprinter, and when he saw a game could analyze it instantly. Even if you know, for example, that for every hundred dollar increase on the progressive for four aces with a kicker adds 0.13% to the game, if you see a dollar meter at $2,148.34, how valuable is that? Bo could see at a glance that it is 0.19%. He could do similar calculations for four aces without a kicker, four 2s, 3s, 4s with a kicker, four 2s, 3s, and 4s without a kicker, and even the straight flush if it had a progressive on it. Usually the royal itself has a progressive on it as well, and Bo will add that in.

To make such numbers useful, he had to know the base amount of the game. That is, are we talking about 9/6 Double Double Bonus (98.98%), 9/5 (98.87%), 8/5 (96.87%), or whatever? And he had to know similar numbers for various pay schedules of Deuces Wild, Deuces Wild Bonus, Bonus Poker Deluxe, Jacks or Better, etc. You’re definitely allowed to write these down and to use a calculator, but that takes a bit of time to accomplish.

Bo needs to know how fast the progressive is incrementing. If the meters increase by a half-percent for every dollar input, you need to wait longer before you start to play than if the meters increase by a full percent. This is not difficult to figure out if you’re the only player on the bank of machines. If several players are playing and you don’t know how fast the meter is going up, you’re going to have to estimate.

He needs to know how the slot club works in each place. Does it have some sort of cash back? How much? Is it free play? Will he get mailers? Are they running any sort of special promotions this month? 

Once he adds all this up, he comes up with a percentage return, a “dollars per hour” figure, and a risk of ruin. (This is the easy part, so far. Really.)

If the numbers are high enough, he calls “Charlie,” who is his main partner. Can Charlie come over now? How long can Charlie stay? 

Bo and Charlie have a set of agreements that handle how they are going to split the profit or loss from any given game. Every now and then a new situation comes up and they need to make a decision on the fly. This does not always go smoothly.

Sometimes both Bo and Charlie have other things to do and a game worth, say, $100 per hour is there to be played. What then? Bo has other teammates who may be available to be called, but that really complicates the splitting of the money.

Say Bo and Charlie are down $8,000 between them on a game where the royal is $7,500. They need to call in somebody else who ends up hitting the royal at $7,600. How is the money split? Each of the players could reasonably have a different idea about how this should be done.

And how about if the new player isn’t as fast or knowledgeable as Bo and Charlie? What then? He’s not contributing as much as the others, but I assure you that he’ll want a full share on any profits.

And what if the third guy says he can come, but he has to bring his girlfriend with him. She doesn’t really know how to play, but they’ll sit together (if possible) and he’ll coach her? And he thinks she should get a full share.

And what if one of the “extended team” has had some “minor” integrity issues in the past? He can usually be trusted financially, but if his rent is due…. If you really need a body to hold a machine, do you forgive and forget — knowing that if you do, you may well be ripped off?

What if one or more of the team shows up “slightly” drunk or stoned?

Were I on a team, I could be trusted to be competent and honest. But I’m 72 years old. I’m faster and more accurate than many players, but not as fast as I used to be. I have enough assets that I’m not hungry to succeed at this. I don’t want to work more than four hours straight. I have a schedule that includes teaching classes, going to square dances, and attending improv sessions. I have a wife with health issues that takes priority over everything. It would be easy for a team leader to conclude that dealing with my schedule would be more trouble than it was worth.

And I’m just one guy. Every potential team member has some sort of back-story that affects his/her availability at least some of the time. Nobody is available 24/7. And everybody’s speed and competence are different from the next guy’s. How do you deal with that?

Teams come together and fall apart regularly. There are some long-lasting video poker teams that have been together for decades, but those are very few and very rare. And I have no clue as to how they have done it. 

Dealing with the “people aspects” of having a team is tough. I believe it is more difficult than finding the good games. But should good games and good welcomes become increasingly more difficult to come by, learning to deal with these people aspects just might become necessary.