You’re playing dollar pNSU Deuces Wild, the 15-9-4-4-3 pay schedule also called Airport Deuces, five coins at a time, and you’re dealt W W W 7♦ 9♦, where each W indicates a wild card. Specifically, a deuce. This is a dealt straight flush, worth $45 in this game. Congratulations!
Your two choices on this hand are to hold all five cards or to just hold the deuces. (My late father took the attitude that, “If God didn’t want me to keep a straight flush, He wouldn’t have given me a straight flush!”) Any decent strategy will tell you to just hold the deuces. If you have software available, you can see that holding the deuces is worth $71.47 and holding the straight flush is worth $45 — which again tells you to just hold the deuces. End of story for me — and many other players.
But not all. This is not an EV (Expected Value) of $71.47 versus an EV of $45. This is an EV of $71.47 against a guaranteed $45. Just holding the deuces requires some gambling. Holding the straight flush doesn’t. With this dealt hand, you’ve been endowed with $45. That $45 is now yours to do with as you please. Do you keep it, or do you “gamble it up?”
Despite the fact that the odds for gambling it up this time are definitely in your favor, you could lose. Let’s look at how often you will lose by doing this, and by how much:
| Possible Draws | Net Win/ (Loss) | Raw Frequency | Percentage of Total | |
| 4-of-a-Kind | $20 | ($25) | 820 | 75.86% |
| Straight Flush | $45 | 0 | 109 | 10.08% |
| 5-of-a-Kind | $75 | $30 | 66 | 6.11% |
| Wild Royal | $125 | $80 | 40 | 3.70% |
| Four Deuces | $1,000 | $955 | 46 | 4.26% |
| Totals | 1081 | 100.00% |
Starting from three deuces you can’t end up with less than 4-of-a-kind. So, the most you can lose by gambling it up is $25, which is the payout of the guaranteed $45 minus the $20 payout of the 4-of-a-kind. But this happens more than 75% of the time! You make this play, and it will usually not pay off!
Is this relevant? Not to me. I don’t care much about the results of specific hands. I care far more about how I’m doing for the year or for my career. But to some players, receiving an endowment and then giving more than half of it away more than three-quarters of the time is traumatic!
Now let’s look at a different hand in the same game: K♣ Q♣ 4♦ 6♦ 8♦. Here the best three plays, in order of value, are: holding the diamonds (worth $2.07); holding the clubs (worth $1.73); and throwing everything away (worth $1.61). Each of these three plays will have some takers.
For me, it’s a simple play. The strategy says hold the diamonds, and hold the diamonds I do. Period. That’s the way I roll. But this hand is fundamentally different than the previous one. This time there is no endowment. You must gamble it up. The only question is which gamble do you wish to take?
The most classic endowment hand is one like K♥ Q♥ J♥ T♥ 9♥. You’ve been endowed with a straight flush, but you’re oh so close to a royal flush. Most competent players know that in most games you should keep the straight flush, but in Deuces Wild variations the correct play is to toss the 9, say a prayer, and go for the royal.
There are players who will always keep the endowment, no matter which game they are playing. They can’t stand throwing away guaranteed money. Others will always gamble it up, again no matter which game they’re playing. They didn’t come to the casino today for a lousy straight flush. They’re here for a royal! In my classes, I referred to these two groups of people as “chickens” and “gamblers.” Neither strategy is the right one if you do it for all situations in all games!
Thinking of video poker in terms of endowments allows me to understand why certain players make so many mistakes. In general, people like sure things. When you give up a sure thing, it can feel like a loss. And since losses feel bad, many people try to avoid them.
Avoiding losses can work in many aspects of life. Applying that to video poker, however, frequently leads you to a less-than-optimal result.
This is probably one of the best lessons for sceptical players, beginning players, and other kind of players refusing to face reality.
From what I see , the moment of whether to hold a paying hand or to go for the big one arises once a player is facing a situation in which it’s about going all-or-nothing , hence, risking it all in order to go for the glory, or take whatever you can get in order to play on.
Mr Bob Dancer’s 2 examples (3 deuces with a straight flush dealt or 4 card royal or a dealt straight flush) are great examples why sometimes you should go for it. It gets a bit more difficult once you have 5-of-a-kind with deuces or a wild royal with 3 deuces. If it’s “only” a straight flush that pays 45 coins then it’s a no-brainer. But what about if you’re risking a dealt Royal Flush w/wild in Bonus deuces and you have the ace in your hand already? Should you go for the deuces with kicker, or hold the wild royal, or skip all but the 3 deuces?
From Switzerland
Boris
Wanting sure things is also why some players will play lousy paytables, or even (shudder) slot machines, so they can get a guaranteed high amount of players club points.
As a recreational player, right or wrong, when I am four to the royal I’m going for it.
These are situations that, to me, are a love-hate happening. I love the fact that I have a winning hand that pays well, but I hate having to decide to keep the hand or go for the 4 deuces or Royal (whichever is the possible outcome for this hand). While Bob, since he has the opportunity to play all the time since he lives in Vegas and looks to the long run results, there are others who do not have the opportunity to play frequently in Vegas and do not look at the long run – they might forego the strategy and decide to gamble and go for it.
I can think of 2 situations that provide an extra factor that some people would consider in making their decision of whether to “stand pat” or break up a pat hand to go for something better. One situation is that in which a person who is not a VP player, such as a friend or relative, is playing next to someone who is a frequent VP player only because of a one-time invitation; that friend/relative might never play VP again. Such a person would not be playing even one royal cycle’s worth of hands, but rather would only be playing a couple thousand at most. We would not expect him/her to get a royal in such a small block of hands, so if they were to be fortunate enough to be dealt a straight flush, they would probably be excited and glad, and I would not tell them to go for the royal. The other situation is one that I (a long-time and long-playing player who knows strategies and/or uses strategy cards to know optimal plays) have experienced myself: When I am at the end of my playing time for a trip, if I am dealt 4-to-a-Royal on my final hand but the 5th card makes a flush or straight flush, I will keep the pat hand, solely because I want my final hand of a trip to be a winner instead of a loser. I did this once with A-K-Q-J-7 of Diamonds. Other long-time knowledgeable players can’t understand this; it all depends on the kind of person you are, how you’re “wired” psychologically.
You can also equate this to blackjack players who always take even money when dealt a blackjack versus a dealer ace up.
On progressives, if the meter is high enough, it can be correct to discard the nine from a King-high straight flush. But you’re still going to miss 46 times out of 47.
When I toss a small pat something hoping for a better result, and it doesn’t happen, my husband, if sitting next to me, will always say “that just cost you fifteen dollars”, or whatever. Which is why I’d rather he not be sitting with me! LOL.
This is an interesting observation; “Bob lives in Vegas and plays all the time.” So he has the opportunity to play “optimally” and if it doesnt pan out it will (for him) even out in the long run. MOST of us dont live in Vegas and dont have the time needed to ride out any bad luck streaks that occur even with perfect play. Moreover if a player is down to 20 credits and doesnt have an unlimited bankroll it might be wise to hang on to that guaranteed 45$. Just my opinion.
Another factor for me is also a psychological one relating to bankroll and my gambling budget. Playing $5 a hand? I will always gamble. Playing $50 a hand? Too much money from a straight flush to walk away from.
If $45 is important to you, you should not be playing VP.
I disagree with Jerry, you can enjoy video poker with any amount of money. It all comes down to what is the best strategy for you and that situation.