[Colin Jones Season 1 will resume next time!]
Previously, we asked the question, “What is an AP?” As an example, I threw out for debate the machine player who learns a few fun facts on Twitter and then wanders around the casino picking up money as a button-pushing zombie. As kids, maybe as early as age 5, my brother and I would look in the coin returns of vending machines and pinball machines, and underneath the washers at the laundromat (those coins get yucky, no TITO!). Doesn’t every kid do that? I wouldn’t call that activity AP, and isn’t that exactly what some machine players are doing today?
There seems to be no consensus on a label for this type of machine player, and I’m not prepared to offer an answer. Online, I’ve seen such a player referred to as a tongue-eating louse, for being really disgusting and intercepting small fish on their way into the giant casino mouth. Does it matter? Do we need labels? We don’t, but if someone asks me, “Should I quit my job and become an AP?” then I have to say, “It depends on what you mean by ‘AP’!”
I think we can probably agree on what isn’t a defining characteristic of an AP. First, I’d say that making money within casino walls is not actually part of being an AP. A casino happens to be where a lot of the good targets are, but it’s really not about the casino. APs can operate online, at home, or out there in other industries. I’ve heard it said that Bill Belichick is a great coach because he’s an AP, and the rest of the coaches are just donks.
I would also say that the fact that the income stream exhibits variance is also irrelevant. Almost everyone’s income stream exhibits variance, from those who receive tips, to gig workers, to those who own small businesses, or to those who work for firms that give unpredictable bonuses. I have a feeling many business owners made money in 2019, and lost money in 2020. That doesn’t qualify them as APs.
So what is the defining characteristic of an AP? In my mind, I’d say that our operational definition is that the AP is able to find a legal, profitable advantage in a game or system that is widely considered to be theoretically or pragmatically unbeatable. So the fact that most people don’t know that casino games can be beat, or as an empirical reality most people do not beat those games, is critical to our definition of an AP. Without the donks, there is no AP. It’s a yin-and-yang thang.
So with a system like the stock market, that game is generally considered to be profitable, so investing money in the stock market would not qualify a person as an AP, because everyone makes money in the stock market. But now it’s widely considered to be pragmatically impossible or extremely difficult to beat the S&P index, so if you’re a stock investor who has an edge superior to the S&P, then you’re an AP.
Back in the early days of social media, when you could pump up your social media following by buying/trading Likes, Links, and Friends, the APs were doing that. Then those tricks and methods became commonplace. Once that happened, the cute barista from the casino who has 4000+ Instagram Followers ceased to be an AP. But maybe having 1 million or more Followers would still qualify, because not everyone knows how to do that.
Part of the definition is that the AP is in the extreme minority. The AP doesn’t just find advantage; rather, the AP finds advantage where the masses do not. A cactus is the AP plant of the desert, cuz you can’t live in the desert! That cactus would no longer be an AP if it were living in the rainforests of the Amazon.
As the masses learn the methods of the AP (the Black-Scholes formula, once proprietary, became an industry-wide benchmark), the true AP continues to innovate. The AP adapts so that he constantly remains ahead of the masses, always in the clever minority.
But what about the player who knows how to generate an edge, and does so to earn a living, but did not develop the methodology himself? What if that methodology is super simple? To that I would make two points. First, I think there isn’t a discrete dichotomy between the AP and a non-AP. I think there’s more of a continuum. On the one end of that spectrum are the one-trick ponies who learned their simple trick from someone else. At the other extreme are those who look for edges everywhere, and continue to develop edges and increase edges for every target they have. For these APs, the lifestyle is not the knowledge of a specific method to beat a target, but rather a mindset—a way to look at every possible target.
Second, I’d emphasize that even the one-trick pony who executes a simple trick can still be on the AP spectrum. Because if the trick is so simple, then why aren’t the other 99% of people doing it? Why aren’t they sleeping on mattresses full of Kitty Glitter cash? There are 3.5 million visitors to Vegas every month, and I doubt that 1000 are net positive players. It might be as few as 100. Think about that percentage. So a person who learns a few tricks on Twitter and then goes to grind out a living might look like just a worker, but still gets some AP credit in my mind.
Back to our little tongue-eating louse, could you have imagined that a creature could live inside the mouth of another animal, after taking over its tongue?!?!? Who does that? That’s a truly innovative, albeit disgusting, way to make a living, more impressive than a cactus or camel. So is a one-trick machine player an AP or a tongue-eating louse? The answer is: Yes!
So Grosjean is basically arguing Covid 19 is an “AP” based on its massive infection rates along with its ability to mutate.
Yes, and the coronavirus is looking at its opponents and thinking, “These people are donks. Candy store!”
Perfect analogy, sadly
Not sure why a “reply” on my phone doesn’t attach to the post where reply was pressed.
The CDC actually discusses viruses taking advantage of opportunities and using hosts to improve their capabilities. Appears on point.
And when they get backed off, sometimes they try to come back in wearing a disguise. In 2009 in CAA, I made the analogy of AP to virus. The virus is always working, unemotional, relentless, patient, opportunistic, fearless. If only we could instill all these values in our children. Hey, when’s the next boot camp?
In the same year, I wrote that I prefer a symbiotic relationship. One where the virus and host don’t try to kill one another. Alas, even though the existence of AP has greatly improved casino profits, we are not likely to convince the casinos to take part in such.
“the existence of AP has greatly improved casino profits”
Self-serving tripe. Not going to debate that in comments.
The term AP, in my opinion, is just another way to label intelligent people who 1) decide to play/gamble at locations that offer gambling, 2) they play within and by the stated rules, and 3) they use their brains and not their emotions when they gamble.The only problem I have with AP”s ( if one chooses to label intelligent gamblers thus) is that said AP’s don’t have enough sense to quietly go about their gaming. Casino’s have been tuned into reading, listening to and perusing ALL information that AP”s (and others) expound about how to win at the casinos.Ever notice how the dealers look at you when you step up to the tables and put money into play? Two things cross their minds- 1) here is another sucker and/ or 2) I feel for this soon to be fleeced pigeon, but, hey, it is their choice to donate.Now since there are no dealers at the slots or video poker games, the casinos have developed software to track ones style of play and winnings. Win too much and you become persona non grata and the casino will stop offers, comps and will even bar you from playing. Sound Familiar? As long as millions of others accept and continue to gamble and donate and return for more of the same, the casinos will find ways to exclude the intelligent gamblers. And then the casinos have the audacity to call gambling “entertainment” Sure, for them. They find it “entertaining” knowing that the average is too ignorant to realize that they are getting robbed while being “entertained”.
Here’s an example using electromechanical Craps. APs have pretty much given up on Bubble Craps and moved to Hybrid Craps (the ones manufactured by Aruze Gaming).
Hybrid Craps typically offers better odds (3/4/5X vs 2X on the bubble) and in some places, the Hybrid is treated as a table game so no WG2’s for $1,200 wins. You get slot points but don’t face a $1,200 bet cap.
APs were exploiting the middle seats so the 10 foot Hybrid table is now 5 foot and it might be a 3 foot table based on your wingspan. It was no surprise in certain markets, those middle seats are turned off.
The early version of Bubble Craps had a 1-second delay to shoot. APs exploited this due to non-random rolls, e.g. autocorrelation in the dice (one of the die didn’t change). One second was *not* time enough to randomize the both dice if the AP shooter shot early.
Aruze changed it to a 3-second lockout and killed the Play. Some APs then chose to avoid the boxcar, e.g. no house edge using Duey-Don’t if no boxcar. The second school of APs chose to shoot the 6,7,8 or middle numbers. Both systems work but pale in comparison to what an AP can make in the Hybrid game.
The house edge for the Duey-Don’t was 1/72 or 139 bp because the player loses 1 bet on average every 36 rolls. With 2X odds, the house edge was roughly 50 bp.
The logic was to avoid a 6 for one of the die. If one die is not a 6, then you can’t have a boxcar (no boxcar = no house edge). So these APs were able to lengthen the cycle of a boxcar from 1 in 36 to 1 in 40 or 1 in 50 rolls, etc. That didn’t erase the house edge but lowered it enough they were still able to make money on multiplier days.
People think Craps can’t be beatable but the APs went to work and rethought every angle. I prefer the 6,7,8 method myself on Bubble but I rather play the Hybrid. Btw, I saw one AP who had over $10K in bets working on each roll on the Hybrid; that never happens on the Bubble because you can’t have over $10K in credits and the machines starts spitting out tickets on winning over $10K in credits.
I was searching Ebay today for Exhibit CAA and I noticed a seller who is selling expanded notes on your book James. The seller even has a Youtube video explaining this, “***2020 Update*** Detailed notes on Beyond Counting Exhibit CAA.” Commenting turned off.
The Ebay link is, “Detailed notes Beyond Counting Exhibit CAA 2009 and Hole Carding instruction DVD.” He’s sold 18 units and has 10 more up for grabs. I’m curious to know what his hole carding DVD video has on it. The kid says he’s improved on your technique but knowing how things have changed due to the “pandemic” it could be information that is irrelevant in some venues.
I once seen your book Exhibit CAA in a Hastings Books & Movie store before they went out of business in my hometown and could have purchased it for $5-$10 years ago but I didn’t buy it.
Have you considered doing an updated reprinting of the book so people don’t have to deal with scalpers?
Yeah, I’ve thought about it, but just swamped. I actually paid $100 or whatever it is for the “Notes on Exhibit CAA” thinking that there might be some useful comments that might help me improve the book or fix some mistakes. What a waste of $100! I learned nothing. The notes were crap.
I talked with the seller yesterday on Ebay and knowing that commenting was turned off on his Youtube video it prompted me to not buy his notes and DVD video. I figured he was getting criticized and may have been trying to hide critical comments from people who may have purchased the notes and DVD.
Are you telling the advantage player makes a living gambling ? How do you define making a living. One item you don’t mention is most players live in or clise to Vegas if I am 1000 miles away and find a whatever. Do I fly in ? No. Most advantage players lie in order to sell something Look at your ads. You are local and have inherent advantage. Taking all ticket out of machine is unethical and illegal It is not my goal. I play to have fun I have played on my original gambling kiddy for 15 years. Must be doing something right. Sociopaths have not fear or guilt. Are you one ??