Biden Ahead By 14 Points Now

Their polls are scientific and credible.

"Their polls are scientific and credible." -- Just like their reporting - Hah,Hah,Hah,Hah...

https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/political-prediction-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency rose from 78% last week to 91% Monday before Election Day, according to CNN's Political Prediction Market.

So scientific.  So credible.

By coincidence, 9% is your chance of drawing to a 5-card inside straight, and we've all seen it happen, haven't we? When it happens, it doesn't disprove anything, except to the very dim. Or to Charles. But I repeat myself.

According to fivethirtyeight.com, Trump's current chance of winning is 18%.

If you only believe what you want to hear and ignore everything else, you're going to be very poorly informed.

Actually, their reporting IS in fact scientific and credible--they verify and fact-check their reporting. The result may indeed be something you don't want to see or hear. That doesn't mean it's inaccurate.

We had tens of millions of yahoos vote for Trump in 2016 because they only listened to the "news" that was spoon-fed to them by Russia. For them, that was easier and more fun than fact-checking.

This is what Charles and other poorly informed people don't understand. If a poll--or any other predictive tool--says that something has a 91% chance of happening--or a 99.99% chance---that does not mean that it is saying that it WILL happen. Nor is the poll "wrong" if that event does not occur--or "right" if it does occur, for that matter. Polls do not predict the future, nor do they purport to.

That is not a particularly advanced concept. But lordy, does it ever zoom waaaay over the heads of some people.

Both Florida and Arizona are essentially giant retirement communities whose people are the most at risk.   Trump and those state governors are surrendering those states in the election because of their QaNon rhetoric and policies on the virus.    

Nobody is uneducated about the virus at this point.  Its just a matter of giving a shit and trying to be responsible instead of stupid.   The seniors in those states see who gives a shit about their lives and who doesn't.   Hence the polls.

Well, one reason the GOP is abandoning those states is that in the past, all those seniors would vote for a piece of moldy cheese as long as there was a "Republican" sticker on it. In 2016, they voted for an insane orangutan who happened to call himself a Republican. So they probably think those states are safe for them, despite evidence to the contrary.

As seniors very, very rarely change their ways, it's not likely that Trump's behavior, either recently or over the last four years, has changed what's left of their minds. What's really happening in those two states is a slow demographic shift. The conservative old farts are dying off and are not being replaced in the numbers seen in prior decades. Young, Hispanic people are moving in, bringing about the gradual death of White supremacy that has always been viewed and feared as the apocalypse by conservatives.

Also, of course, many of these people will be completely fucked if the Republicans succeed in their holy mission of destroying Americans' health care, and they dimly realize that. Trump may lose at least a few votes because of it.

3 hour line on the first day of early voting in INdianapolis.      I was plannin on going until I saw the wait time.   Guess I'll go next week.      Turnout is looking to be pretty big....and thats not good news for the party that likes to obstruct voting.

What are the polls saying about the election in Indiana? It's been reliably red the last several years. Any realistic chance of it turning blue, at least as far as Trump/Biden is concerned?