Corona Virus Thread #2. [Please, confine political spats to the thread of 26 January]

Apparently, as the virus spreads, . . . it's actually beginnning to look serious.

Corona Virus Unknowns

"China is taking unprecedented and draconian measures to stop the virus from spreading, cutting off transit to cities with millions of people. Can these measures work?"

Oh, and it seems the Chinese Government may have been underreporting the seriousness of the early spreading of the virus:

Virus More Widespread than Officials Say

Also, there's an interesting co-incidence:  Wuhan, where the virus was first reported, is also the site of the National Bio-Safety Laboratory - a presumedly maximum-security facility:

"A laboratory in Wuhan is on the cusp of being cleared to work with the world’s most dangerous pathogens. The move is part of a plan to build between five and seven biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) labs across the Chinese mainland by 2025, and has generated much excitement, as well as some concerns.

Some scientists outside China worry about pathogens escaping, and the addition of a biological dimension to geopolitical tensions between China and other nations. But Chinese microbiologists are celebrating their entrance to the elite cadre empowered to wrestle with the world’s greatest biological threats." 

Ref: Nature 

It can take up to two weeks before an infected person shows symptoms....and they are contagious before those symptoms appear.    That appears to be the worst aspect of the disease.

fortunately the mortality rate is low.    It's essentially a slightly more deadly form of the flu.    Not something to ignore but also not an apocalyptic pandemic.   

I suspect it will be old news by April

This whole series of events is anything but unusual. Viruses (and other pathogens) mutate--that's how they survive and reproduce. The most successful viruses/pathogens don't kill their hosts immediately--they let them survive long enough to spread it.

Thus, this is the sort of thing we have seen and will continue to see, given the earth's large population and the fact that so much of that population lives in close proximity to one another. The man vs. virus war will continue; as we cope with a given virus, a mutant strain will emerge.

Worldwide travel and communication have meant that no virus stays "local." Efforts at quarantine will usually fail, because by the time the virus is detected, millions of people will have gone back and forth from infected areas to previously non-infected areas.

The best we can do is learn how to best treat viral infections. That's been a challenge, as viruses can't be "killed" the way bacteria can--they are entirely different types of organisms.

I remain optimistic, though, since virtually every one of the great killers in human history--the plague, cholera, smallpox--could have been treated by managing the symptoms rather than eradicating the disease in the host as such. For instance, the Black Plague, which still exists, only kills about 1% of those it infects who receive prompt medical treatment.

To address DonDiego's speculation, I doubt that this is some malevolent pathogen that escaped/was released from a Chinese lab. For one thing, it's not nearly deadly enough to be a viable bioweapon. For another, for the abovementioned reasons, it's impossible to ensure that only the other guys get sick from your lab-created bug. Makes for some good movies, though.

Quote:  

A plane chartered by the U.S. government to evacuate 201 Americans from the Chinese city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak landed in Southern California Wednesday morning. It was carrying diplomats from the U.S. Consulate in Wuhan and other U.S. citizens. All the evacuees cleared initial health checks in China and then during a refueling stop in Alaska.

By Wednesday morning the flu-like virus had killed at least 132 people, all of them in China. Close to 6,000 others have been infected in more than a dozen countries, including five confirmed cases in the United States. More than 100 people in the U.S. were being tested for the disease across 26 states on Tuesday.

Endquote

Ref: CBS News

Kevin Lewis writes:

"To address DonDiego's speculation, I doubt that this is some malevolent pathogen that escaped/was released from a Chinese lab. For one thing, it's not nearly deadly enough to be a viable bioweapon. For another, for the abovementioned reasons, it's impossible to ensure that only the other guys get sick from your lab-created bug. Makes for some good movies, though."

DonDiego thanks Kevin Lewis for addressing such speculation.  However, it was "Some scientists outside China worry[ing] about pathogens escaping,", not poor old DonDiego.  DonDiego has no worries.

Based upon the number of confirmed cases the mortality rate is a little over 2%.    In reality it is likely much lower.    6K is the number of confirmed cases....in other words people who got sick and went to see a doctor who ran tests on them.

Likely there is a whole bunch more who are sick with the disease and do the same thing I do when I get the flu - buy some OJ, campells soup, and a shitload of pay-per-view - and then sweat it out.

By comparison the estimate mortality rate of the flu is .1%......so the Cornovirus is considerably worse by comparison but also an empiraclly small threat.

Starbucks sees [financial] hit as coronavirus prompts over 2,000 China store closures.

Ref: Reuters

The best thing to do is see a doctor, then hibernate and keep yourself hydrated, fed, etc. I recommend binge-watching reality TV, to give yourself an incentive to get better.

Also, a thought---which I HOPE no one will misconstrue as political--in an environment where there is universal health care, you won't have people who contract a dangerous disease failing to seek treatment because they can't afford it. Just sayin'.

The way China is handling the outbreak shows one of the few merits of totalitarian governments. Please, dear citizens, stay home, or we'll send you to a concentration camp. I suspect that they're being so heavy-handed because they know that their relatively primitive healthcare system would otherwise be swiftly overwhelmed.

How did they ever get the Chinese people to start drinking (expensive!) coffee in the first place?

Kevin Lewis asks: "How did they ever get the Chinese people to start drinking (expensive!) coffee in the first place?"

From wikipedia :

A French missionary brought coffee to Yunnan province in the late 19th century, marking the crop's introduction to China. However, the modern Chinese coffee cultivation industry began in 1988 when the Chinese government, World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme jointly initiated a program to introduce coffee growing in the region.  Nestlé also arrived early in Yunnan to encourage the cultivation of coffee.  Hogood Coffee, the largest domestic instant coffee maker, was founded in 2007 and has been responsible for cultivating much of the coffee in the Dehong region. Hogood capitalizes on relaxed land use policies in Yunnan which have allowed farm land consolidation through contract farming schemes; seedlings are planted by Hogood and harvested by farmers of the beans that are in the end purchased by Hogood.   In 2013, Yunnan Coffee Trader  became the region's first dedicated specialty coffee exporter; they are now (2018) the largest exporter of Yunnan specialty coffee in China. 

Domestic coffee consumption in China rose in parallel with an increase in domestic coffee production; from 2006 to 2017, Chinese coffee consumption had grown by an annual average of 22%.

White-collar workers are the main force of coffee consumption. In a survey, white-collar workers accounted for 30% of the total, which is the largest consumer group — followed by the government official, school staff and people who work for the organizations, accounting for 15%. The proportion of freelancers and coffee practitioners is close to that of public institutions.

Starbucks entered the mainland China market in Janury 1999.

The details of Starbuck's growth in China are at Starbucks History.