Tune in for the insurrection party!

I don't think he gets the nomination Mark.  Hope not at least.  I'll be doing my third consecutive write-in vote if so.  

If he runs he will likely get it and run largely unopposed. How many Republican elected officials, candidates and pundits would come out against him and endorse someone else? 

Then if he doesn't run you have Wheezy Desantis who is really scary as a non-insane authoritarian candidate. 

Manchin 2024

I can't see anyone successfully standing up to Trump. For those Republicans who have, it's been a political death sentence.

I do think that dangling the Orange Pusbag in front of the American electorate for a third time is just about the only way they could possibly lose.

I actually agree with Kevin on that.  

Here is my forecast.

2022 - The Democrats are going to do poorly. I don't think that will be reflective of Joe Biden. I think that will be reflective of living in COVID times. People want things to go back to pre-COVID times and that isn't going to happen anytime soon if ever. People will look for an alternative and hope for the best even if it is a bad alternative. 

The only possible wrinkles I see are:

1.  Biden finally seems to have wisened up. Republicans aren't going to work with him for the good of the country even if it means hundreds of thousands of additional Americans needlessly dying. His messaging on January sixth was sport on. People need to be reminded how the Republicans tried to overthrow the government and what a historically significant and horrific act that was.  Biden also needs to remind people of how awful the Republican non-response to COVID was and how awful the economy was under Trump. If he continues along these lines, the Democrats will do better than expected in 2022. 

2. The ultra-rightwing radical Supreme court will continue to make radical decisions such as denying COVID vaccine mandates and overturning Roe vs Wade which has the potential to spike Democratic and Independent voter turnout.

2024 - Now this forecast is based largely on the assumption Republicans take at least the House in 2022 and Trump runs in 2024.

After two years of Republicans in charge of Congress where wackadoodles like Gym Jordan try to govern by conspiracy theory, Americans will decide they don't want to ride on the crazy train any longer.  Republicans will do wackadoodle things like shutting down the government and holding hearings on how Nancy Pelosi is the real reason the January 6th insurrection happened. Voters will have gotten a two-year taste of crazy and the misery it inflicts.  Throw a stinking orange cowpie on top of the crazy and it will be a Republican slaughter. 

The possible wrinkle I see is that Republicans will cite conspricy theories as they did in 2020 and simply declare themselves winners of the 2024 election. They have the people in place to make the coup succeed this time. If that happens, America as we know it is dead and we will find ourselves living in a fascist authoritarian country. Shame on you if you vote for this outcome in 2024 or your inaction allows this to happen. 

How about a scarecrow with a computer chip installed who can read off a script for GOP versus Joe.  That would be a close one.  I think I'd go withe the scarecrow if it looks a bit healthier than Joe.  

Mark, the trouble is, because we're all carved up into these silly political divisions called "states," people in one state can't do much to influence what happens in another. I live in Oregon, which is going to be safely and sanely Democratic for the foreseeable future, but I can't do anything to smarten up people in North Dakota, Arkansas, etc.

I agree that people's dissatisfaction is more along the lines of "We're sick of all this and want things to return to normal" than "Joe Biden is to blame for everything not being unicorns and rainbows." Any objective person would realize that our problems are global in scope and nature and not anyone's "fault" (not even the Orange Pusbag).

I agree that if the RepubliQ seize the House and/or the Senate in 2022, we'll see a LOT of unhinged behavior as they try to seize and hold absolute power. That might be enough to turn off voters to the extent that they lose in 2024. Of course, that would be a horrible mistake on their part--all they have to do to become the American New Nazi Party is win, completely or modestly, in 2022, pretend to be sane for a couple of years and not do anything radical, and then storm the palace in 2024. They'll install Dear Leader for Life (whoever that winds up being), abolish elections (functionally if not actually), and dismiss all non-RepubliQ judges at all levels.

So the only way the RepubliQ could fail in 2024 (or 2022) is if they stop playing the long game. That's my ray of hope: they've shown an amazing propensity for shooting themselves in the foot on several previous occasions. I really, really hope that there are enough reasonable people on the fence who will react with anger and revulsion to the RepubliQ's efforts to stop everyone who isn't white from voting and destroy democracy. And as I've said before, if the RepubliQ are stupid enough to bring back the Orange Pusbag, that revulsion could increase exponentially.

The trouble is, exploiting that would require a unified response from the Democrats, and that's been their Achilles heel for decades--inability to cohere. For instance, they should be boiling Joe Manchin alive right now, not kissing his ass. He should be pressured to give up his mini-coal empire for the good of the country. And everybody should get behind Biden right now rather than trying to undercut him. That's one of the fundamental advantages the RepubliQ have had: they unified behind Trump, squelching their ethics, principles, morality, disgust, and adherence to democratic principles. They ALL (with maybe two or three exceptions) sold their souls. That gave them the power of a united front.