Originally posted by: Anthony Curtis
Let me try this one more time. Not everything can possibly go according to plan every time. We update as we go according to what we know. If circumstances alter things, all we can do is go to the next best option. The book 100% stands on its own and if you make a single proper play, your EV will surpass your $3.59 opportunity loss many times over. If that's not enough, the refund option is always available. I'm not arguing the fact that we didn't do this optimally, but there were reasons for the delays and none of them were duplicitous as seems to be what's being implied.
I'm just curious how anyone, this author, Bob Dancer, or Evil Knievel, can just look at a slot machine and determine that it's +EV. The Big Fat Kettle Corn Bonus could be massive, but how can the odds of getting it be determined? How can the inherent base payback of the game (irrespective of the bonuses) be known--a data point that would absolutely have to be determined in order to deduce whether or not the game is in a positive state? How can it be known how often the bonus hits? That would be necessary as well.
Now, if you knew the base payback for a given machine, you could start there; then, you would have to know the frequency of the bonus hit(s). In the absence of that info, you're simply guessing. I suspect that slot vultures use the published regional figures for slot paybacks. But those are averages spread among dozens of casinos in a given area (Strip, downtown, etc.) and therefore, thousands of machines. How do the vultures know where that Dragon Droppings machine with the bonus just ready to pop lies on that spectrum?
That's why I've thought for some time that slot vulturing is a chimera at best and a fraudulent story used to sell books and website subscriptions at worst, and all the prevarication surrounding the publication and distribution of this book makes me lean even more strongly toward the latter.