. . . DonDiego is unlikely to die from it. Apparently warming is less than had been predicted and future warming is expected to be lower than has been predicted.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meets toward the end of this month. Parts of the "fifth assessment report" due for release after the members slog through the 1914 pages of reports upon which the assessment will be based.
". . . the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.
Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.
Up to two degrees of warming, these benefits will generally outweigh the harmful effects, such as more extreme weather or rising sea levels, which even the IPCC concedes will be only about 1 to 1½ feet during this period.
Two recent papers (one in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society, the other in the journal Earth System Dynamics) estimate that TCR [the "transient climate response" — the actual temperature change expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide about 70 years from now] is probably around 1.65 degrees Celsius. That's uncannily close to the estimate of 1.67 degrees reached in 1938 by Guy Callendar, a British engineer and pioneer student of the greenhouse effect. A Canadian mathematician and blogger named Steve McIntyre has pointed out that Callendar's model does a better job of forecasting the temperature of the world between 1938 and now than do modern models that "hindcast" the same data."
Ref: The Wall Street Journal
Warmer winters and more food, . . . what could be better?
And although DonDiego will do his best to make it to 2083, realistically he doubts he'll see it. So it's all good.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meets toward the end of this month. Parts of the "fifth assessment report" due for release after the members slog through the 1914 pages of reports upon which the assessment will be based.
". . . the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCC's emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.
Warming of up to 1.2 degrees Celsius over the next 70 years (0.8 degrees have already occurred), most of which is predicted to happen in cold areas in winter and at night, would extend the range of farming further north, improve crop yields, slightly increase rainfall (especially in arid areas), enhance forest growth and cut winter deaths (which far exceed summer deaths in most places). Increased carbon dioxide levels also have caused and will continue to cause an increase in the growth rates of crops and the greening of the Earth—because plants grow faster and need less water when carbon dioxide concentrations are higher.
Up to two degrees of warming, these benefits will generally outweigh the harmful effects, such as more extreme weather or rising sea levels, which even the IPCC concedes will be only about 1 to 1½ feet during this period.
Two recent papers (one in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society, the other in the journal Earth System Dynamics) estimate that TCR [the "transient climate response" — the actual temperature change expected from a doubling of carbon dioxide about 70 years from now] is probably around 1.65 degrees Celsius. That's uncannily close to the estimate of 1.67 degrees reached in 1938 by Guy Callendar, a British engineer and pioneer student of the greenhouse effect. A Canadian mathematician and blogger named Steve McIntyre has pointed out that Callendar's model does a better job of forecasting the temperature of the world between 1938 and now than do modern models that "hindcast" the same data."
Ref: The Wall Street Journal
Warmer winters and more food, . . . what could be better?
And although DonDiego will do his best to make it to 2083, realistically he doubts he'll see it. So it's all good.
