Not sure I see it your way, Money. I'll preface the following by saying that I've not played at Rincon in a number of years and when I did, it was only a few times for low dollars. I'll also not fully up to speed on the current CET system having been MIA from them for a number of year. Having said all that, here's where I think you're missing the mark....
Is the highest denom game $100 single line 8-5 aces and faces with a flat RF ($400K)? If so, this is a 99.26% game with perfect strategy. It's a relatively easy game to play correctly so we'll assume perfect play.
Bear in mind that every 3OAK or higher on this game at this denom is a handpay. I realize that if you're sitting there playing this machine in a serious way that they'll just log these and key them off but it all takes somewhat longer than continuous playing on a lower denom machine with significantly fewer handpays. Let's say that it lowers the play rate to 300/hph....just a guess....I have no actual idea.
Not sure how you came up with .1% CB. According to VPfree, every 200 points gives you $1 in FP and it takes $10 CI on VP to earn a point. If everything I'm saying here is correct, it's $2K CI to earn $1 in FP, that adds .05% to the game and not the .1% you indicated. Another HUGE CAVEAT....VPfree indicates that it's $50 CI to earn a point on "some high limit video poker". Not sure what specific machines fall into that category but if the high denom 8-5 aces and faces do, this brings the CB down to .01%.
Assuming the lower CI per point, we're now at a running total of 99.31%.
You then surmize that after two months the player should be getting BB that should add .2% to the game. I have no idea if this is high, low, or spot on but we'll go with it for the sake of this exercise. We're now up to 99.51%.
Looking at this in a bit of a unique way, each time you push, it's costing you a theo $2.45. Assuming all of the above is correct, you're losing at a rate of $735/hr. What kind of bankroll does one have to have in order to lose at this rate? Assuming an infinite bankroll, the huge variable here is just how many tickets will be in the drum come the last Saturday of the month? Comparitively, we did about $7M CI in one casino in L.V. in 2012 and I wouldn't consider us to be a "high roller" compared to the other high end slot play that they get. Just what is it going to take in CI at Rincon to have a strong advantage in the drawings? Let me be what I think to be conservative and let's say that $10M CI is what the mystical "AP" is planning on doing in these circumstances.
The math on that works out to be a little more than $830K per month on a 99.51% game which is a $4K/mth. loser. You therefore have to hit one of the top monthly drawings once in the year to essentially break even.
Here's the other catch to your assumptions....if you think people will pound $100 machines for this promo, they're going to be playing much more than $10M CI/yr. which makes the math even worse for them. They can get to my estimated $10M number almost by just playing $5 machines heavy for 40 hours a month. The point is that the more they play, the worse it is.
The keys to determining if this is a "good" play are:
1. Do you know or have a good estimate as to what the total number of entries will be at the end of each month to have an advantage of being drawn?
2. Can you get drawn more than once at the end of each month? If not and you're draw for the lower $1K prize, you're not going to be happy.
3. Do the tickets stay in the drum on a cumulative basis or are they taken out at the end of each month for the sake of the next month's drawing? If they come out, you should do all your play for the year in one month (assuming they allow for multiple draws of the same name).
4. What is your backroll and what is the variance assuming you have answers to the above. The assumption has to be that you have an unlimited bankroll; not sure how many people fall into that category.
The room and food have zero real world value unless you're homeless. No one from LV will go to Rincon and place any value on the food as anyone who plays here with any speed is never buying a meal unless them choose to.
Obviously I can't speak for him but I don't see any way that Dancer thinks this is a strong play due to both BR requirements and variance. There's no doubt that the casino will make money in this given the relatively crappy selection of games and low CB.
It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
Dan
