One of my favorite websites is www.richardmunchkin.com. Munch is a friend and a frequent guest on the radio show — and also someone who regularly writes or says something that gets me to thinking. His October 7 blog called “What makes a great AP?” was one of those somethings.
This particular blog mentioned some things that set apart the good APs (advantage players) from the also-rans. Without discussing the entire article (although I encourage you to read it all), the small segment that inspired me this time happened when Munch and a buddy he respects went to Reno to play a particular game. While the game itself wasn’t as good as they thought it would be, the AP buddy noticed that the dealer had a particular habit that was exploitable. The buddy and Munchkin were able to devise signals at the table and take advantage of this dealer’s poor technique without the dealer ever realizing what was going on.
Sometimes things happen in a casino that you must exploit NOW or SOON or the opportunity will be lost. One example was the slot promotion at the South Point I wrote about recently. While that didn’t turn out well for me on this particular occasion (gambling is like that sometimes), it was a great opportunity that would have disappeared if I didn’t play it that weekend. The promotion expired on the coming Sunday and once the opportunity was gone it isn’t coming back. While a similar promotion may be offered down the road, the numbers will be different and I may not have access to the same level of information.
When I find out or figure out a good play that must be played very soon or not at all, I usually tell few if any others about it. Sometimes I’ll tell a particular buddy, “Sam,” who has been there for me on numerous occasions.
But if I tell Sam that it’s coming up next Friday, for example, he often won’t want to hear about it because he has already planned to play six hours at the Palms on that day. He’ll be playing for the PEW (play, earn, win) gifts, the weekly drawing, and the monthly mailer. He’ll likely be playing 25¢ Ten Play 9/6 Jacks or Better where he can get $7,000 per hour through the machines. The game MAYBE has a 0.2% advantage — depending on how valuable you consider the PEW gifts to be this month and the specifics of the drawing — which comes out to $14 per hour.
The play I’m telling him about might be worth $80 per hour and will not be repeatable. But he has no time for it because in his mind he has committed those six hours to playing at the Palms plus another few hours somewhere else at a similarly low-paying proposition which is also regularly repeatable.
Sam values keeping his word. Good for him. That’s one of the traits I admire and respect about him. He sees keeping a promise to himself as important as keeping a promise to somebody else. Again, good for him.
Where he and I differ on this is over what constitutes a promise to oneself. If I’m planning on playing ten hours at the South Point next 2x point day, I don’t see this as a promise to myself. I see this as a plan that is subject to modification if a better opportunity is discovered. This is different from having an arrangement with somebody that says I’ll play until 5 o’clock and then give him the machine. That’s a commitment that is much more serious. A promise to someone else to do something is a different magnitude in my mind than a current personal plan that doesn’t involve anybody else.
Having your mind already made up is a convenience in life. It allows you to go through life without thinking things anew. And this is potentially a very costly habit if you wish to be an advantage player.