Posted on 5 Comments

Counting it Once or Twice

In June, the South Point is having a “Half Price Gas & Goods” promotion. This is a promotion that, with slight variations, is run there one month a year.

The way it works is that you play enough to earn $25 in cash or free play, namely $8,334 of coin-in because the cash or free play is redeemed at a rate of 0.30%, and redeem those points for a $50 Chevron or Walmart gift card. The points must be earned in June and redeemed before July 4.

This is not a “you keep your points” promotion. You must give up your points to get the card. Each person is limited to 10 gift cards, in any mix between Chevron and Walmart, for the month. If you consider these cards as good as cash, this is a form of double points for the first $83,340 you play in June. Since most people play less than that, it basically means double points all month.

To wallow in this a bit more, let’s assume you decide to play NSU Deuces Wild for this promotion. This is a game that returns 99.728% with perfect play, but to make the math easier, we’ll call it 99.70%. Virtually nobody plays perfectly, and calling it worth 99.70% makes it a dead-even game with the 0.30% slot club.

Playing to get the maximum, you play $83,340 and receive $500 worth of gift cards. With normal luck, you’re going to lose $250 playing that much. We’ve all been around enough to know that it’s very unlikely that we’ll lose exactly $250 on the play, but it’s the best estimate we have before we actually sit down and play.

On your records (you DO keep records, don’t you?), recording the actual loss is appropriate. Most players do NOT record the $500 worth of gift cards as a “win.”

So, are you scheduled to lose $250 (which is the average cash loss you can expect) or make $250 (because you received $500 in gift cards that only cost you $250)?

There is no unique answer to this question, just like there is no unique way to keep records.

As for me, my records will not reflect the gift cards as a win, so I will likely lose on the play. That said, I consider it a play worth $250 and the gift cards are the major reason I’ll be playing. (I also get a small monthly mailer, and playing $83,340 in a month will slightly increase the mailer.)

Once I have the cards, I’ll treat them as “regular Walmart money.” We go there periodically, and so the cards will be used. I do not see the cards as “free money” to be splurged, any more than the money received from a royal flush is immediately spendable. You know the swings go up and down, so you need to keep a bankroll “buffer.”

Part of my buffer is gift cards. Spending gift cards instead of cash allows my cash to last longer.

Some people keep “bankroll money” and “regular money” in two distinctly different categories. I don’t do that. It’s all in one pot. And gift cards are in that pot too.

A Walmart gift card isn’t really as good as cash — because I can spend cash at more places than I can spend Walmart gift cards. But it’s “close enough.” I’ll be glad to get them.

(In actual fact, this past weekend the $2 9/5 Double Double Bonus game with three progressives, got up to $22,500 before it was hit. I got on it at about the $15,000 level, where the two lesser progressives also chipped in to make it a lucrative play. Although I collected few W2Gs along the way, somebody else hit the big one. The $1,000 worth of gift cards cost me considerably more than $1,000.

(Still, if I found the progressive in a similar state again, I would jump right on it again. It was a far higher EV than other games I could play, albeit one with a higher variance.)

5 thoughts on “Counting it Once or Twice

  1. Bob wrote: “Some people keep “bankroll money” and “regular money” in two distinctly different categories. I don’t do that. It’s all in one pot.”

    There is one caveat here. The bankroll formulas (risk of ruin, kelly) assume your bankoll is only used for gambling. However, there is a way to adjust. For example, if your EV per week is say $200, and you are spending $50 per week from your bankroll in non-gambling expenses, then your real EV for the bankroll formulas is $150 per week. The non-gambling expenses are a “leak” in your gambling bankroll. If you also had a “day job” and instead added $50 per week to your gambling bankroll, your real EV for the bankroll formulas would be $250 per week. As for gift cards specifically, there is a simple way to adjust. Of course you can’t gamble with gift cards, but you can sell them for cash or sell them to yourself by transferring the cash from your “living account” to your gambling bankroll and using the cards in your “living account”. It’s a separate issue whether or not gift cards are taxable.

  2. Slightly different story. I played for a similar (almost opposite) promotion in Mississippi. The offer said if I played for at least one hour, then presented a gas receipt or travel voucher/boarding pass, I’d get $60 in Free Play. Hardly worth the effort,, but I would be in the neighborhood (on foot).. When I went to redeem, the clerk looked and said I had not played the full 60 minutes. Seemed like way more to me. Yes, I had changed machines a few times, tipped for drinks, went to the bathroom, etc. I suppose changing machines penalizes your ‘time’ a lot more than just the 30 seconds it takes moving from one to the next. Did I go back to play enough time to get the $60? Hell no. I’d already lost more than $60.

    1. Candy,

      Did you ask how much more you have to play to get the $60? If it was 5 or 10 minutes, why wouldn’t you play 5 or 10 minutes for $60? Even at 10 minutes, that promo is now worth $360 an hour to you. Hard to bleed $60 in 10 minutes.

      And why would the previous results matter? If you find a 9/6 JOB quarter progressive with a $2000 royal, do you stop playing if you lost $200? The play is still good. What you did previously should not really matter, assuming you have the bankroll for the play.

      You will frequently find situations where you have lost an amount that makes even hitting the goal payout result in a losing session. That should not matter. As an extreme example, let’s say I’m playing a Must Hit By and I sit down at $48 on the minor jackpot ( 0.75% meter). It is now at $49.75 but I have lost $50. Do I stop playing because even hitting the jackpot will result in a losing session? If so, I want to be around when you’re playing these games because you are leaving a lot of positive plays on the table.

  3. Curious how most players would handle the tax aspects of the $500 in gift cards. I keep track of all my free play cash outs separately from and in addition to the results from the game itself. In the past I have been adding the $500 to the free play wins, since it is what I consider to be a cash “equivalent”. Any comments?

  4. Kevin always posts spot-on comments.

    I can’t remember how long ago I read Jean’s books. I used to love going to the Gambler’s Bookstore. Hundreds and hundreds of books on gambling. Card counting, dice control, video poker.

    One thing has changed in Las Vegas. Casinos read books and follow the Internet. Everything.

    Times have changed.

    Ah well. I still like to buy a $2 Keno ticket at breakfast!

Leave a Reply