The coronavirus has shut down casinos across the world. Even if they are allowed to open up again in a month or two, they will have sustained significant losses. Some estimates are that it will take up to two years for Nevada casinos to recover. If they stay closed for longer than two months, it will take much longer than that.
This means some casinos will not reopen at all. If they were cash-strapped and struggling before the pandemic, they just might be pushed over the edge. Expect many casino bankruptcies in 2020 and 2021.
For the casinos that do reopen, their primary goal will be to survive and get back to profitably. They will likely not rehire everybody and they will probably have smaller casino promotions — all in the name of saving money.
Many casino managers believe that tightening games is the secret to making more money. And that’s what I believe will happen — whether it’s the best strategy for them or not. If other casinos in their area have gone out of business, that reduces competition and with less competition comes less incentive to offer loose games.
Some players, like me, will not play games where we do not believe we have an advantage. The vast majority of players, however, do not gamble this way. Even if casinos tighten up, there will still be players. Not as many, perhaps. And certainly not a lot of players that casinos wish would stay away anyway. But simply tightening the machines a bit won’t kill off the casinos.
Do I know this will be the case? No, of course not. My crystal ball fails me more than occasionally. But there has been a trend over the past 20 years of tightening machines, and this seems to be a likely impetus to speed up that trend.
The relatively few good games that exist will be hammered by lots of players. It’s a case of “more dogs than bones.”
I hope I’m wrong. Very much so. We’ll see.
In the meantime, since we’re not in casinos and otherwise quarantined, some of us have time to prepare for the future. For those of you who depend on video poker for a significant part of your livelihood, I strongly recommend you spend serious time considering “Plan B.”
That plan will be different for each of us as we all have different skills, ambitions, and opportunities — and the choices for people in their 20s may be vastly different than people in their 70s. But waiting until the casinos re-open, being shocked at what games are offered, and then trying to figure out “What am I going to do next?” seems like a waste of the time you have now.
If I’m wrong and good opportunities still abound this summer and later, there will have been no harm done planning for a dearth of good games and promotions. If I’m right and you haven’t done sufficient planning, you will have to scramble. And like the game of musical chairs, not everybody who is scrambling will end up in a good place.
Thanks for the articles, Bob. Entertainment is hard to find these days.
Seriously, why would anyone depend on advantage video poker as their livelihood (not a hobby for gain or sideline)? If you really have a sharp enough mind to calculate the odds and play fast enough to make money, surely you can find a more profitable way to apply such skills in law, accounting, finance, etc.
In the past, whenever there was a downturn in business for whatever reason, instead of loosening payouts to attract more customers, casinos tighten up in order to get more from what they got.
The trend is not our friend; however, I am a little optimistic this time might be different. Economist have suggested it will take several years for Las Vegas to recover from COVID-19. For a host of reasons the key convention demographic may NEVER return to 2019 levels. In an effort to attract new customers as wells as incentivize existing customers to take more frequent trips to Las Vegas. The casinos could be forced to offer more playable video poker. The video poker inventory could more resemble what it was prior to the growth of conventions. Quite simply Las Vegas could be forced to focus what made it great – good old fashion gambling. Again, I am only slightly optimistic on the future, but this recession might be different than past recessions.
I thought the Gaming Commission will not allow VP machines RNG to be tampered with?
How it works the casino has a choice everytime they purchase machines on what the payout will be slots are the same as video poker odds so they have control on the payout. Ever notice your game moved or other games in there place this is adjusting there payout.
Games are tightened by changing the pay tables, not by altering the randomness of the cards.
Video Poker is the most hands on game in casinos, we push buttons and touch hard screens the entire time we play, as we sit right next to other players… I highly doubt we stop worrying about germs and viruses when our corporate casino overlords give us the all clear to resume our play. Gloves will help, but we all invariably end up touching our faces eventually. I have no magic answers, ideas, or even suggestions, but I do have two autoimmune diseases I carry around, so I will be that fella you see wearing a mask whenever I set foot in any casino, times they are a’changin…
Do you have a Plan B? If so, what are you learning to play?
To me, sports betting is logical to learn right now with the explosion of legalized sports betting happening in the country.
I play live poker mostly, the nearest video poker machines to me are a 90 minute drive, and they dont have fabulous pay scales… Video poker and craps are my Vegas games, and they will be for the future. I love playing because I love playing, and I love sports because I love sports. If I mix the two up I might not love either one. Stay safe and lets pray this will be over soon…
only a fool expects to make a living playing video poker. learn live poker, blackjack, or how to hustle certain other type of machines such as ocean magic
Agreed Tony, poker has the best odds at making $ and profiting. It’s you against other degenerates, not the house.
How do you hustle ocean magic?
Are you on Brad & Andrew’s PokerBros? Real life poker is dead. No sane rec player will ever handle dirty chips.
I’ve been a frequent visitor over the years and have seen the games go downhill since I started playing back in 2001. If the keep on reducing I will stop going. I’m almost to that point now, so I will have to wait and see what happens.
After 9/11 the Vegas casinos brought back full pay Video Poker and it worked for them and us advantage players. When the casinos got greedy and tightened up the machines, we moved on to other places and things. Full pay VP could bring us back to Vegas.
Good morning. The Boyd and Fertitta families have been in the gaming business for over a century ,combined. It would be hard to believe super sharp gaming families would respond to this disaster by offering less value to locals , while air travel plummets. I expect much better spacing throughput the properties since they aren’t going to need that much capacity anyway. 6 feet between tables in the buffet and gourmet rooms, better spacing between machines, etc. I don’t expect changes to pay tables, and i expect aggressive marketing efforts to get local players to return. How ,selective , those marketing campaigns will be, remains to be seen. Stay safe and healthy everyone, hope to see you around town in May . Remember ,those of us who spend substantial amounts of time in casinos are in effect, smokers, no matter how careful we are to avoid smokers , so we have to be extra careful. hc.
This would be a great time for ALL casinos to go to NO SMOKING!!!! Please start thinking of everyone health! Thanks
YES!!!! This needs to happen NOW!!! The state should enforce all casinos to go to NO SMOKING rules before allowing them to reopen. NO SMOKING!!!!
No chance. Around 20 years ago, there was a dumpy little casino near Circus Circus on the other side of the street called Silver City. They tried to be nonsmoking. They went out of business (not saying that was causal). Fast-forward a decade, and Strip casinos tried to squeeze the locals joints to be nonsmoking since food is served, but somehow get an exception for the Strip casinos, using the argument that the food in Strip casinos is not close to the gaming pits. Whether you buy that argument or not, the point is that Strip casinos feel that allowing smoking gives them a competitive advantage, and given these dire times, they would never risk any move that could affect their business. I would wager that there is a strong correlation between smokers and people who would go into a Vegas casino during a pandemic. Only if smoking is banned by a higher authority could it have a chance, but I don’t see the governor stepping out on that.
Harvey Cohen, did we meet the other time at the Tuscany? We played Deuces wild in the early Hours , do you remember? can you email me? [email protected] thanks….
hi, i just did, i hope ? hc
Restaurant tables jammed together. Thanks harvey cohen for bringing that up. Looking through windows before a restaurant opens, the tables so close together (and that’s without bodies in the chairs), I’ll pass. I’d love it if, for a while at least, they would de-crowd things. I might feel like going in. When they started the sofas-along-the-wall-system to increase capacity—a sea change was occurring in the world of eating out. For an evening eating out at a “nice” place, a two-topper table just doesn’t cut it.
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Good morning Carol, some of us are read by management , some of us speak to management, even currently. I can assure you in most casinos, spacing will be very different for the next 6 months. Demand will be down anyway, why crowd your guests ? Also, why gift silly things, they will gift masks, if they can get them, gloves, maybe disinfecting wipes, etc. Good luck and stay safe. hc
If somebody decided to provide vp machines as stand-alone with space between machines as a safety issue it might attract
Some of us old folks.
some casinos shut down machines between others go give more room and space to the patrons. this might be an idea for Las Vegas as well because in most casinos there are abundant machines and many of them sit idle most of the times…
I hope that the casinos don’t tighten every aspect of gaming. We could come back to poor pay tables in video poker; quadruple zero roulette; only 6:5 blackjack; poker where the 10% rake is unlimited; sports betting with lines of -120 instead of -110; craps with only single odds; and reduced comps on top of all that. I certainly hope that isn’t the case.
at least some of the games you will know if they change the payouts
Good morning everybody. Although the topic of Bob’s most recent article was about the situation after C-19 is related on Videopoker conditions, let me tell you, that there are many other factors that should be re-considered. Resort fee raises that have been pushed to the Limit, constantly higher Prices at the Starbucks counters, restaurants jacking up the rates…just to Name a few. And that’s not all. Las Vegas must understand that the tourists visiting (and I am one of them) have realized this “method” of squeezing out the max profit has been going on for a while. This is the chance to make Things better. By that I mean it would not be helpful to replace good games by tight games and continue this greed-based strategy. If you want to Keep a loyal and longterm relationship with your customer base, then it’s time to understand that Vegas is not the only place in the world that has gambling. But more and more people saying good bye to this place in the sun because it’s just getting less and less attractive. Let’s hope Las Vegas will become attractive again to visit for everybody. Which would also be the bread-and-butter for all the local employees. Thank you. From Switzerland.
Switzerland, yes we did meet at Tuscany on your last visit. Nice to hook up, hope you are well. Do you do facebook ? It would be interesting to hear your take on whats happening with the virus in your country. Hit me up on FB, this isn’t the right spot. Take care, hc.
o, one final comment….April 30 as the “next and new target” to reboot the economic system, in our opinion this is premature and probably not realistic at all. The pendemic has just begun in the U.S. while it’s beeing going on for a while over here. Still the officials do not have in mind to give their “OK” for business by the end of this month. More realistic scenario would be a 2 month shut down and get it all set and Ready to go. I know it sounds brutal, but that is probably the more realistic idea than starting too soon and then run into a fatal set-back which would be an Overkill.
Tagging onto what Boris said, I’m sure the airlines are hoping for an explosion of Vegas bound passengers, and likewise casinos are expecting a massive influx of gamblers at the opening (and ongoing). Good point, Boris, that this is a good time to patronize casinos in our towns/areas instead, at least for a while. They’ll need the revenue badly, and doing so COULD signal a “can get along without ya” mentality regarding Vegas’ and their tight casinos.
Business usually runs on “whatever the market will bear.” Maybe if we stay away for a while, let “the market” figure what they need to do to bring us back.. Pipe dream, probably, but worth a thought.
Hey Candy,
I fully agree with your comment. After all there is nothing worse I hate than this corporate arrogance and greed I noticed through the past few years. By constantly raising the resort fees plus by implementing additional fees d such as parking or restaurant surcharges, I oftentimes had the feelings that casinos have been fooling us tourists. Without tourists there is no future for this town. By cutting down games with good odds the results may be devastating.
Boris and Candy’s comments were great.
Very good posts!
Bob mentions books from time to time that might interest his readers. The last one he spoke of that I really enjoyed was Frank Kneeland’s “The Secret World Of Video Progressives.”
Based on Bob’s recent comment, I just started reading Barry Meadow’s “Blackjack Autumn.” It is the funniest gambling book I’ve read since “Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas.”
By the by, I used to post as “Jeffrey,” but there appears to be another poster named Jeffrey so now I am posting as “Sangria.”
Thanks,, Jeffrey. I love sangria!
Thanks also to you, Boris.
In one way we gamblers have this opportunity to decompress, exhale, stay away for a while, see what happens. Unfortunately it has to be a bad time for the casinos too, to expect them to give us more when they are bleeding red ink (presumably). Who would have thought a microbe would bring us both down. Sheesh.
I fully understand that this situation has never ever happened before, not even during any war. Not even during the 9/11 Thing. And since most of the entire world is currently on hold, this is particularly dramatic. Las Vegas is , in my opinion, the greatest place in the world . I would love to live there…under normal conditions. Let’s hope that this city, and the rest of this world, can go back to normal very soon. It is, however, questionable, that re-opening before June makes much sense. Keep in mind, a 2nd wave of infections would be like an Overkill. Europe has been in quaranteen mode since about 1 month and situation is not under control yet. I doubt that it will be under control in Las Vegas within 4 weeks…youys must be tough and patient. I would rather count on June for all facilities to re-open. So, all it takes is Food, water and Electric power for the upcoming 8 weeks or so…..
The large Oklahoma casinos near the Texas border offer juice bonuses to their high limit players. I predict this will increase when there reopen. Las Vegas will probably tighten up like Bob mentions. They will probably still keep resort fees! Lol.
Even though I will get some great offers (before they closed – my last free play month was 3k), I am very hesitant to step back foot in a casino. I am a middle aged male with average health. I did consider going in off times but still very leary. They say casinos are like land based cruise ships. I am considering plan B like options trading or other advantage income opportunities
Winstar gave you 3K? Are you playing video poker?
Yes but I’m a losing player. My game is about to turn around tho ; )
Actually, cruise ships are like oceangoing casinos, but much harder to leave once you get there. Although, in both places you can easily go overboard!
I received several mailers this week offering free rooms in Las Vegas in May.
Bob,
I found a way you can go play VP!
https://www.grainger.com/mobile/product/36Y734?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIyuHI78jS6AIVa_7jBx1XxgoDEAQYBiABEgLg_fD_BwE&cm_mmc=PPC:+Google+PLA&ef_id=EAIaIQobChMIyuHI78jS6AIVa_7jBx1XxgoDEAQYBiABEgLg_fD_BwE:G:s&s_kwcid=AL!2966!3!320227187435!!!g!543247218420!?cm_mmc=PPC:+Google+PLA
Go out and hit lots of Royal Flushes