Posted on 27 Comments

Unrealistic Expectations

Many of you know that I participate in storytelling events. I’ve been regularly attending a workshop to improve my skills.

Recently, after we had all practiced our stories online for the day, Pete, the leader who lives on the East Coast, asked me if I would be willing to take him around and show him how to play were he to come to Vegas.

I was surprised by this. I’ve basically never had such a request before. My answer off the top of my head was inappropriate. I told him that I charge $250 per hour for private consultations, and there is no game I could show him how to play which would cover my fee. He told me he wouldn’t be taking me up on the deal.

The reason it was an inappropriate response is that Pete is a Zoom friend, someone who has helped me improve at something I wanted to do, and basically a good guy. Bottom line is that if he wanted me to spend three or four hours with him gambling at video poker — why not? He’s a friend and he’s worth it.

I could get us both coupon books from the Las Vegas Advisor and the American Casino Guide and go around town cashing coupons with him. There are a number of match plays and other easy-money deals in there and we would probably end up ahead. This is a once-per-year-per-person run, but both of us would be eligible because I haven’t made such a run in years. However, it’s not video poker and he’s been told I’m a video poker expert. If he’s going to have me there helping him, video poker is probably the game he expects to play.

I don’t think this will end well. I think Pete is looking to spend a few pleasant hours, learn a little about gambling, and end up $100 or $200 ahead. If he actually lost $100 or $200, it could be a burden on him. Not a disaster, perhaps, but a problem. He doesn’t have a lot of discretionary funds and I’ve seen him react badly when things don’t go his way.

The problem is, he’s thinking about doing this because he wants some easy money, and I can’t guarantee he’ll win. I certainly don’t win all the time myself, and with translation errors because I tell him to do one thing and he either misunderstands or for some other reason doesn’t do what I tell him to do, his results would likely be less than optimal. That’s a gambling fact of life.

If I sat him down at a quarter Full Pay Deuces Wild machine at one of the Arizona Charlie’s, with the (miniscule for this game) slot club he’d have a 0.8% advantage. This is about as big of an edge as I can get him. And it’s a fairly simple and intuitive game. At the speed we would be playing, the average return would be $5 an hour. But players of this game know that if you don’t hit a royal (worth $1,000) or four deuces (worth $250) today, you’re going to end up hundreds of dollars behind. We might play 1,000 hands over two hours, but royals come about every 45,000 hands on average, and four deuces come about every 4900 hands on average. Either or both could happen on this particular day, but the odds are against it.

So, on the best game that I can lead him to, he’s a favorite to be down $200 or so. This is not what he has in mind. Being told that we were playing a good game and together we could play every hand correctly, but still lose, is not likely to be information that nurtures him.

The easiest solution, I suppose, is to take him out to dinner, give him $200, and tell him not to gamble. Even if he followed those instructions, the money wouldn’t pay for his plane trip. There are casinos in his state that are much cheaper for him to get to. He won’t find Full Pay Deuces Wild there, but if he wants to gamble for a small amount, it’s cheaper for him to go there than fly to Vegas.

27 thoughts on “Unrealistic Expectations

  1. My hairdresser has a sign at his station: “I have to charge my friends for my services, because I do not have enough enemies from whom to make a living.” Something like that. We’ve all seen that sign.

    On the other hand, call the guy back, tell him he caught you off guard, that you’d be glad to spend an afternoon in Vegas with him like you mentioned, familiarize him with a casino environment, see what it is all about. That’s probably all he wanted anyway. It would be like me asking someone to show me how to play the piano in an afternoon. “Chopsticks”, maybe?

  2. Easy Bob. After listening to your pod casts and enjoying this column over the years you are a preceptive guy and should have seen this as a request from a long distance friend looking for a brief guided tour of the amusement park known as Las Vegas gambling. I don’t think he is looking for a condensed private video poker for winners session but a look at what are and are not the best games to lose the least and why from someone who knows. What more fun than to go home with some stories of a little roulette, craps, black jack, Big 6, Wheel of Fortune, a few sports bets along with video poker and comp hustling tips. I don’t think he is expecting to come home a big winner but again the experience of spending a little time with an insider would be priceless.

  3. You’re doing A LOT of assuming about what his expectations may have been. It sounded to me like he may have a desire to go to Vegas and if he were act on that desire, was wondering if you’d show him a thing or two.

    Tell him if he flies out at a time you’re teaching classes again, he can attend the class as your guest. Afterwards, you can watch him for an hour or so and give a few extra suggestions. Maybe grab a beer or something to eat a place he may not have known about.

  4. I think Bob’s instincts were right on. This guy on Zoom is the furthest thing from a gambler. Not only does he not understand the ups and downs, he doesn’t even have a bankroll. He just expects Bob to print him money and go home a winner. Vegas isn’t for everybody, nor is gambling. If he does end up coming to Vegas, I would just tell him you were exposed to Covid and have to quarantine for 2 weeks.

  5. When I read this column , which I always like to do on a late Tuesday evening (Swiss time), some memories came up about the “good old days” of Las Vegas. Years back I enjoyed playing the coupons offered in the LVA and ACG. That was way before the days when the casinos came up with ridiculous ideas such as propelling up the resort fee or charging for parking. Many great coupons have been eliminated since, the value of those books has been reduced. Still I keep ordering up these books as there are many bargains that are still better than nothing. Las Vegas can be an ice cold town and I have seen many people that apparently have lost all of their confidence towards other people and money has become the number 1 goal in life. It starts when you enter one of these doors that lead into a casino lobby and they guy in front of you doesn’t care and is not holding the door open for you. Seen that many times. Sometimes it’s not all about money, but if too many people keep reaching out their hand towards you without giving anything back to you, then it’s understood that a person’s character can change a bit and generalize. Sometimes it’s a good idea to put people into the same basket. But not always. In life, it’s not always about the money.

    1. Boris,

      I have often read your thoughtful responses here. I’m somewhat surprised that you still find it worthwhile to travel to Las Vegas. After all, it offers very few good games, coupons, and promotions these days.
      Have you ever tried playing video poker at an online casino?

      Best regards,

      Scott

      1. Hello Scott

        To me, as well as to many others that like to visit Las Vegas, it’s not about winning money or hopefully making a living playing videopoker to win , but rather not to lose much and have a lot of fun while gambling. Plus, Las Vegas is a great place for vacations and escape from reality. Sometimes when I play live poker sitting in a tight game full of locals, I quit not because I lose but rather because there is no fun playing. On a videopoker machine it’s a bit different. You can sit there with your drink , you get a lot of hands dealt and your brain is working. The financial factor is not so relevant although I try to win something. It doesn’t work always of course….. 😀

  6. Here’s the vibe that hit me after reading this: I think that Bob D. had a lawyeristic knee-jerk response when Pete asked his question. $250/hour (Bob D.’s hourly rate for giving private VP lessons) is about the same as the average hourly cost for an attorney; but lawyers charge that much (or more) in part because they are trying to recoup the costs that they paid for going to law school. There were obviously no corresponding costs for Bob D. going to “VP school” because no such animal exists. Yet even lawyers will give you a 1/2-hour consultation for free, and any ethical or half-ethical lawyer will not simply coax the consulter into using the lawyer but rather will give that person a reality check and (if true) say that they “have no case” and should not waste their money. The same should happen here. Bob D. should have a brief (and free) talk with Pete to find out what he sees and wants, and give him the lowdown. Because the connection was personal instead of business/professional, the notion of charging $250/hour never should’ve been mentioned. Pete did not look in the Yellow Pages (or online) under “Video Poker Training” and contact a specialist who was a total stranger, so he was not thinking about paying a “professional” anything. I am pretty sure that Pete would only have envisioned learning VP if it were a sure way to make money (which Bob admitted, and we all know, is not guaranteed, especially in the short term). I don’t think Pete seriously wants to be spending a lot of time and money being taught VP. Having the free 1/2-hour consultation would fill Bob D. in on what Pete had in mind, and Bob would then “know the score” with respect to Pete, and give him the lowdown about Vegas and trying to win there via gambling. Pete may have had a very negative reaction to what Bob D. said about charging him some stiff fee, but just not yet expressed it to Bob. Instead of making a phone call, I think Bob. should send an apologetic email that simply says “I apologize” in the Subject line, and then contains a full explanation and apology in the “body” contents. Pete is more likely to open and read such an email and experience a change of feeling to the good, than he would be in a good enough mood to be receptive to talking with Bob on the phone. I wouldn’t be surprised is Pete had an immediate violent reaction if Bob were to phone him. So the email would be better.

    1. Here’s his FREE advice:

      Vulture games.

      There, I just saved him $250/hour and he’ll make good money with little risk nor a need a huge bankroll or a stupid players card.

  7. I have neighbors who want to go with me on a VP trip. The answer is “no”. I can train people to win at VP but not in one day without computer practice and a bankroll.

  8. Video poker is way too complicated for a beginner to just step in and make the right moves, it takes doing hours of homework. I had a sleight advantage in the beginning, the card rooms in Los Angeles used to be five card draw poker, it was not until the late 1980’s that stud and hold-em were legalized. And the advantage was sleight, all it really gave me was a foundation, video poker is you against the machine, live poker is you against human opponents. Your zoom buddy does not sound like he has a foundation, so he has a steeper learning curve, but everyone has to start sometime, and if video poker is the game he ends up playing he is playing a game where intellect and discipline can work in your favor. My suggestion to Mr. Zoom is for him to contact Jeffrey Toobin and offer Mr. Toobin private Zoom lessons for $250 an hour, that way he can afford to take those video poker lessons…

  9. Tell Pete to BUY VPW and then go with him.
    A little, no a LOT of training is involved.

  10. Yes, a bad response…sounds like BD was a little jaded there….

    “The reason it was an inappropriate response is that Pete is a Zoom friend, someone who has helped me improve at something I wanted to do, and basically a good guy.”

    This Zoom friend has helped Dancer in the past, but Bob doesn’t want to repay the favor? (It wasn’t mentioned if the Zoom friend charged BD a fee for his help “improving.” I’m assuming not, but it is crucial to my opinion.)

    If someone has done me a favor, I’d like to try and do something nice for that person. So, BD, here’s your chance. Apologize for the too-quick reply, send him a comp copy of your software, and hang out with him for a couple of hours. No harm, no foul.

  11. How many times have you played video poker or blackjack and the person next to you asks “How should I play this hand?”

    Lord.

  12. Holy cow, remind me to never ask Bob for anything. Even if I’ve helped him learn Swedish or whatever. What a snotty way to deal with a basic question for which “Well what did you have in mind?” was the easy and obvious response

  13. Wow! This is the Bob Dancer that I have learned to loath. Bill Aronoff surely can’t have any real friends. This guy is actually asking for an introduction to Las Vegas. Somewhere between Shirley leaving and Bob grinding it out in the VP trenches Dancer forgot how to give. He may be the best ever at Video Poker but he is NOT someone that I want to have a beer with. What a miserable person you have become.

  14. Have you been to restaurants that have been highly praised and they get overt impressed with themselves. So comes B dancer. an expert who’s time is worth 300 hr to a friend. Take the classes and play what. Buy various trainee programs and what do you play. Has no one noted vp has slowly gone south. Main Street station and Palms has closed. If you want to play 1.00 or below dream on. Social distancing has eliminated 40% of possibly good machines. Vp players are bigger liars than fisherman. As to playing for profit hold 25-50 k kitty to play off and you are lucky to break even.
    Play for pleasure with what you can afford to lose. You prob will short term. Non Vegas people cannot take advantage of specials. Divide your kitty by days you plan to stay and stick too it. Learn reasonably good strategy for 2-3 games you enjoy. There are free strategy sites. Days of good vp are essentially gone. Play 9/7 DB 9/6 DDB Various deuces with fair pay tables. Don’t plan on winning. If you do be thankful

  15. Sounds like Pete will have a new story to tell on the next Zoom!

  16. I asked Bob Dancer for similar help several years ago. His response to me was slightly different. He quoted me his hourly rate but also told me that he would NOT take my money because I didn’t yet have enough video poker knowledge to get enough from his help. He pointed me in a direction to increase my VP knowledge to a level where his instruction would be useful. He could have easily taken my money, but instead he quickly showed me how I could increase my VP knowledge and skills – I consider that very honorable.

  17. Among my acquaintances there are a few people that like gambling but are not into videopoker. Sometimes the discussion is drifting from live poker towards videopoker. There is a guy who strongly believes that the correct hold is of lesser importance than the fact whether or not the machine is willing to pay you back something. I have tried to explain the person many times about my hobby and passion for videopoker, explaining sometimes in depth what it is, how it functions, and what the benefits are if you play under the right conditions. Still that one person is ignorant or or has too many doubts about what I have been telling. I came to the conclusion that I am wasting my time by explaining as it doesn’t help me in any ways. I am not seeking respect or gratitude from that person. Maybe I tried to impress him about my knowledge, but then, after all, I realized that it’s pointless and I will not become richt and famous by acting as if I know how the ball bounces.
    In hindsight I have to admit that my travel expenses are way higher than what I possibly could win by playing videopoker, even under the best possible conditions. Quarter and 50 cents play doesn’t make you a big time winner during a 3 or 4 weeks’ trip. But I realized that I have lost way less since began playing videopoker compared to other casino games. And it’s way more fun playing on a multiplier day and then using the points on a discounted meal than sitting in a tight poker game full of greedy and tight locals that are not giving you any action unless they really have a great hand and flop the perfect hand. Videopoker is fun and can be a way to make money, but to me it’s actually a game to spend time , having fun and losing as little as possible. It’s worth all the efforts and hours of training on the computer before each trip.

    From Switzerland,

    Boris

  18. What Gary Mantey said.

  19. I thought he was asking for a story telling event. A sonic , funny, exhilarating, breakdown of what brought you to Vegas to live, as opposed to visit.. Perhaps , a story, that some how combines the the Wow factor of LV, combined with enough humor and perhaps frustration , that brings home the fantasy of LV versus the reality of making a living, doing what you do.
    A story you could then relate on the Moth radio hour or hell turn into a Ted talk.

  20. Do not waste time with random generator deniers.

    1. One sentence that says it all, Jerry 🙂 Even a dice could land up 4x in a row on point 6, it’s just not very likely.

  21. So if 0.8% edge is $5/hr on this particular quarter game, then at South Point on NSU Dueces Wild, with 0.3% slot card return, you are at 100.73% and on the $2 game your return would be $36.50/hr before even adding in promotion or mailer?

    1. Wow, am I bad at simple math. Return would be 100.03% on NSU dueces at South Point from slot card. They brought back the gas card/walmart card, $50 card for $25 in slot points promo, which bumps slot card worth to 0.6%, but only through $83,333 coin in , since you can only get max 10 gift cards. 100.33% return. Over $40/hr before maxing out gift cards, plus a lil more for mailer amount. I personally got $60 mailer despite doing well over $200,000 coin in last month and possibly month before. I did email the slot club manager and she added another $40 I believe. Man, the mailer counts for dust. If anyone knows of any better plays in town, tips appreciated.

      1. Brockton, read my above post. You’re playing for scraps at SweatJoint.

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