I’m going to present a case about a Caesars property with conditions that may not exist anywhere. I’m trying to address how I would figure things out if this property did exist. I know many of my readers would prefer I do all the calculations for their particular casino and tell them, “Just do this.” I can’t do that. There are thousands of casinos out there with a different game mix at each one. And the game mix is different for quarters than it is for dollars than it is for higher denominations. And to top it off, I have readers who insist on playing Double Double Bonus even if there are numerous superior games EV-wise.
In this hypothetical Caesars property, assume you can play 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%) and earn one Reward Credit (RC) per $10 coin-in, or you can play NSU Deuces Wild and earn one RC per $20 coin-in. Which is the better play? Assume RCs are worth 0.1% if you redeem them for comps or 0.05% if you redeem them for free play.
I’m assuming the comp dollars are valuable to you. This is especially true if you live out of town and need to purchase room and food. But sometimes you get enough food and room deals in your mailers that you don’t really need to spend the RCs on comps, and it makes sense to redeem them at a 50% rate. You’ll have to adjust for this yourself.
Further, assume you earn one Tier Credit (TC) per RC. TCs aren’t redeemable, but they determine your tier level. Play enough TCs per day and you get bonus TCs.
Confusing enough? This is what Caesars players need to deal with.
If this were all there was, neither game would be playable as the return is less than 100%. You might not be a stickler for this, but the basic rule of gambling is that if you want to be a net winner, play games with enough extras to make the game worth more than 100%. Suffice it to say, there are enough promotions and mailers to at least interest me. I’ve earned Seven Stars status every year for twenty years. Many players have determined Caesars is not a good play for them. This is another thing you’ll have to decide for yourself — whether it’s even worth it for you to play at Caesars.
One factor that I’m not explicitly considering in this blog is the theoretical of each game. Offers (including mailers) are based on average daily theoretical. NSU “should” have a lower theoretical than JoB (because a 0.27% house edge for perfect play on NSU is lower than a 0.46% house edge on JoB), but it doesn’t always work that way. Casinos can set any theoretical they like.
To find out how the game choice affects your promotions and mailers, it’s nice to know others who play at this particular casino. Some of these players, presumably, will be playing NSU and some will with be playing JoB. I’m frequently reminded of Richard Munchkin’s oft-stated maxim when our the podcast was in effect. “Your success will be primarily determined by two things: How hard you study and how good your network is.” Although Munchkin is not a video poker player, his words ring true in this game as well.
Just assuming the EV of the game, NSU remains the clear choice— 99.73% + 0.05% is a bigger number than 99.54% + 0.1%. But if you consider “time to earn various tier levels,” playing NSU takes twice as long as it does playing JoB. How much time do you have to devote to Caesars properties?
If this casino offered periodic 10x RC multiplier days, now JoB is the better play. If the casino offered 5x TC multiplier days, NSU is better EV-wise. Still, if time were running out by when you need to reach, say, Diamond level or maybe Seven Stars level, it might be worth it to play a game with a slightly lesser EV in order to make sure you reach the benefits of the next tier level. The benefits of reaching these tiers aren’t as big as they were several years ago, but they aren’t trivial.
Finally, I never got into a personal preference as to whether you prefer NSU or JoB. I never base my decisions on that. I’m seeking the higher EV. Players who base their decisions on such factors remind me of the silly people who argue, “I always have desserts because I have a sweet tooth.” I’m always the one who argues, “Sugar is bad for you. Avoid. Sugar substitutes are worse!”
Want Caesars Diamond tier? Get a Barclays Wyndham Business Earner credit card and automatically get Wyndham Diamond status which then matches to Caesars Diamond. For 95 bucks. Much easier.
Caesar’s gets a bad wrap, deservedly so, but I found attaining 7 star to be worth a few thousand net EV.
I agreed with the article 100% until the final paragraph, which I disagree with. Bob, please understand that you, as someone who lives in Las Vegas and does gambling as your “job”, are an entirely different person in an entirely different situation than the majority of us readers, who come from other states to Las Vegas only a couple/few times a year, and as a vacation. We are the opposite of you and of the “professional gamblers” whom you’ve referred to at times in your column, guys who play like machines and are totally unemotional while they play. While we do want to come out ahead, the enjoyment of our playing is as much a goal and a factor as the EV of a game. And the factors that matter to us vary widely from person to person, and there’s nothing silly about it. For example, for me, the graphics of the VP game (the images of the 52/53 cards that appear on the screen in groups of 5 per hand) matters a lot in my enjoyment. I thoroughly enjoy the graphics of the really old coin-dropper machines like they have at the El Cortez, which is one of my two “home casinos”. By contrast, I really don’t like the graphics in SpinPoker, so I’ve never played it, and never will, because I wouldn’t enjoy playing it. That allusion to sugar and how it’s bad for you was not fitting or applicable, because the facts about sugar don’t parallel the VP-playing situation at all; it’s neither relevant nor material.
Ah, yes, and let’s not forget those bonuses for tier thresholds: Airfare credits; free cruise; free gifts / additional mailers; Holiday Gift Wrap Up points & point multipliers, etc. It gets so complex!
Don’t forget the cost of getting fake Caesars offers which cause you to visit a Caesars property and then be unable to redeem the offer for free play. SMH
Yeah, AL, the “sweet tooth” example kind of fell flat, made no sense in itself. I’m thinking he got to the end of the piece, was tired and needed something to close with.
And what the heck is a sweet tooth anyway? Is it like a green thumb?. How do they compare?
A green thumb is overall beneficial if one likes to garden, produce lovely flowers/greenery for one’s own enjoyment as well as others; a craving for something “sweet” provides limited/short term benefit, and if overindulged in will bring unhappiiness (obesity, other medical trouble). Possibly could relate to benefits of casino play. LOL.
The more we think about, it’s a fact that medium-to-low tier players do not get much in return for their play on Strip-located casinos. Probably this holds true for casinos that are operating nationwide. I am speaking as a medium tier player myself and noticed that we international visitors do not get many offers in the mail unless we had a trip of heavy losses. If someone dumps several thousands on a triple-zero roulette table or gets beat heavy on a 6-5 black jack table then of course the mailers are being sent out just weeks after returning home. No surprise.
I came to the conclusion that sometimes not receiving any offers ore forfeiting them is the better option than accepting it and feeling moral obligation to give action at the place where you’re being offered a room at a discount or fully comped.
It needs to be said that the ridiculou 30 per cent withholding tax on all jackpots over 1199 dollars is killing the incentive of playing higher, wagering more or playing slots at higher denominations. Once this said, as a fugal gambler you need to scout for the best places to gamble and play there. During the past 10 years, tremendous changes have taken place in Las Vegas. It all started by implementing ridiculous parking fees at rates that are so high that it is crazy to park a vehicle there and go gambling while you get free parking at (some) other lcoations. Second, the permanent rise of resort fees and pricing-up at the restaurants means you either have to play more and more to earn enough points to get your comps or you simply leave it, play elsehwere .
Most places on the Strip are no longer of my list of interest. Even Station and Boyd does not appreciate players putting a coin-in of 10’000-15’000 dollars per day. That is a bit unusual but means that voting by walking is the only consequence. There are enough other places that appreciate my play and take my money. Their choice.
From Switzerland
Boris
Boris, you have to get 30% of W2G withheld because you’re a foreigner on your passport? Can’t you get all of that back? For example, in Canada you can get the US withholding back and there is no tax on gambling, that’s why Canadians like to gamble. Rediculous that in US you have to pay taxes on gambling. Holdover from Puritanism. Of course there’s probably lots of people who forget to file for their refund.
LIz, it’s not possible to get that money back. We’ve tried several times to gather informations. My only hope is that they finally raise the threshold to 5k which would allow me playing Dollar machines which is about my level. I hate to get 2800 on a 4000 dollar royal, and the tip that comes on top of it.
From Switzerland
Boris
There’s info in “Tax Help for Gamblers”, 4th ed., Scott and Chien and Fox, pages 98-103. In addition you might consider contacting Russell Fox, he’s been a guest on GWAE. I might add, if you are really stuck playing 2800 jacks or better, the strategy is different, check the wizard of odds strategy generator for details. Also, Jean Scott in above ref., page 99, points out no taxes for non-residents on blackjack, baccarat, craps and a few other games.
LIZ, I am aware of the different strategies if the Royal Payout is different. It mainly affects plays on progressives that cut the majority of the extra pay due to the higher progressive. For instance, a quarter game that shows 2400 usd for the top award might look great to most locals and you see these banks usually being attacted by a whole army of gamblers. If I deduct the 30 per cent (720) , my payout would be 1680 only and this usually does not even cover the gap that’s necessary to make it a 100 per cent game. In that scenario I usually just watch such games and wait until the progressive would go higher than 3000 which would make the game playable for me too.
IT’s even different if you think of the 1 dollar games. A 5-9 ddb progressive game with a 6000 Dollar Royal and some around 2500 for the awk is not even worth thinking about. I would need at least 8000-10’000 for the Royal Flush to start my game. Those levels are very hard to find so I usually don’t even bother playing the games.
Surprising to me that sports bets over 1199 are not being taxed the same way and live poker results also don’t count. That’s why I found some games that I play and like and don’t need to pay taxes. I like the 50 cents NSUD games. Royals are not visiting by that often and I get my kind of action during my stay. It’s ok to pay the tax if I get enough comps in addition then.
From Switzerland
Boris