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The Value of Creating Strategies

In my opinion, much of the value of a strategy lies in the creation process — figuring out what makes this game different from the others; looking for the rare cases; figuring out how to transcribe those cases — not in using a strategy created by somebody else. 

When I’m looking for the rare cases, I’m learning all of the not-so-rare cases automatically along the way. So much of video poker is playing the mundane hands correctly. 

The reason I bring this up is that at one casino, the game I play depends on the promotions. One game pays slightly more percentage-wise but it tops out at a $5 denomination. The “lesser” game goes up to a $10 denomination. Normally playing at the $5 level is better, but fairly often the casino has four-hour promotions where some sort of point multiplier is in effect.  

During those four hours, the expected return from the $10 game (including multipliers) is higher than the expected return from the $5 game. During “non-promotion” times, the $5 game returns more. On one trip, where I’m going to be playing both when the promotion is going on and when it isn’t, I will play some of each game.

The games are similar but not identical, so in addition to having both strategies figured out, I’ve created a list of the “deltas.” That is, which hands are played differently between the games. Before I go to that casino to play, I study all three strategies. Sometimes it is several months between visits to this casino and, since I play these games nowhere else, my memory of the fine points deteriorates over time. So with the three strategies, I can get up to speed again fast.

So far, I’ve spoken a little bit in code. I could just tell you which casino I’m writing about, which games, and give you all three strategies. But while that gives some information to players, it also gives some information to casinos. Which I don’t want. Plus, relatively few of my readers play $5 and $10 games anyway, so I’m risking giving up a situation that isn’t relevant for most of you. If you think you can figure out which casino and which games, please don’t publish those things in the responses to the blog.

The same principles hold for lower denominations — whether it’s 25¢ games versus 50¢ games, $1 games versus $2 games, or whatever. While some of you only play one game, most of you play at least two — and making yourself a list of the deltas would be useful.

The games have to be similar to do this. Deuces Wild games are so different from Double Double Bonus games that the list of deltas would be longer than the full strategies! But Double Bonus versus Double Double Bonus (of whatever pay schedules you play) would be suitable, as would Triple Bonus Poker versus Double Bonus Poker. 

You’re going to have to decide for yourself how advanced you want these strategies to be. I want the strategies to be 100% complete and 100% accurate, but I’m sure I’m in the minority about that. A lot of you don’t play any game 100% accurately, let alone comparing the differences between two or more different games at that level.

So for many of you, what Liam W. Daily and I called “Basic Strategies,” which is as accurate as you can get without using penalty cards, would be suitable. 

If you were comparing 9/6 Jacks or Better (JoB) with 9/6 Double Double Bonus (DDB), you should include hands like A♠ J♠ T♠ 4♠ 5♦ on your list where with Basic Strategy you hold three spades in JoB but four spades in DDB. Unless you’re trying for 100% accuracy, you probably should skip hands like A♠ J♠ T♠ 4♠ T♦, where with Advanced Strategy the correct play is to hold four spades in both games. I’d certainly have that hand on my list, but it’s a fairly rare hand and not worth much if you skip it.

Many of you don’t want to do such hard work to squeeze every last penny out of a game. That’s your choice. I’m not putting you down. But for me this is both my vocation and my avocation and I want to do it as well as I can.

13 thoughts on “The Value of Creating Strategies

  1. — Dork alert —

  2. Jerry,

    It’s not necessary for you to insult Bob, and you shouldn’t. You can disagree with the value or the implications of creating fine-tooth references that make one’s play be 100%, but expressing such as a put-down is not called-for. I also aim for 100% accuracy in my play, though I have a limit to how long my own strategy card can or will be, but that doesn’t make me, or Bob, be a dork. Dorks are people (usually nerds/geeks/dweebs) who are so obsessed with math and efficiency (and are not so into social mores as to avoid embarrassment) that they speak and act in ways that are laughable to others, like the 1950s science student whose thick-rimmed glasses broke in the middle and he reattached the two halves with glaringly obvious tape instead of getting new frames. Bob is nothing like that at all. To the contrary, his overall speech, action and demeanor are decidedly UN-dorky. You should retract and apologize.

  3. Hey Jerry,

    I’m sure you meant to write “Nerd alert”. Dorks are not known to be highly intelligent, nor do they tend to obsess on single minded pursuits such as profitable video poker play. (Relying on dictionary.com “compare meanings”)

  4. I wished there were at least some of these old-times’ promotions in Vegas going on from time to time. Double-Happy Hour, Double-Royals from mignight to 6 a.m. or so. The demolished Fiesta Casino on Rancho once offered extra coin bonusses on every natural 4 Queens hand on mothers day. It was different back then, and it was fun. But now, if you think about, it’s no fun anymore. And from that point of view I fully understand if Mr Bob Dancer keeps us in the dark whenever he spots an interesting opportunity in a Casino X with just 2 or 3 machines on the floor. I think I would do it the same way.
    Today most casinos even eliminated the regular multiplier day and instead offer multipliers on “video reels” which almost sounds like “video poker”. And of course some people fall into the trap and still start playing their game in belief of higher comp value.

    Going back in time, I sometimes wonder what made Bob start giving classes and teaching his skills to the public. This would perhaps be somethign for a column later on (just as an idea). If there wouldn’t have been classes and no big advertising about these games in books and software sales, would the entire story have ended differently?

    From Switzerland

    Boris

  5. Yes, let’s go with Nerd alert then.

    I saw him at Southpoint a few weeks ago. I could really go either way.

  6. Jerry,
    Why do you find it necessary to call Bob a name in the first place? Does it make you feel good or something?

  7. When you have to listen and read about this guy and how arrogant he is, yes, it does feel kind of good. Guy is extremely lucky and far over his EV in his career of being a button pusher. He thinks it is skill. It is 98% luck!

    You want to kiss his ass, that is your prerogative. Go for it!

  8. Jerry…. obviously you resent his career. Don’t listen to him, read what he writes, or respond here.
    Problem solved.

    “Good luck is a residue of preparation” – Jack Youngblood, NFL Hall of Fame member.

  9. Without blowing it it and putting it out of context, I believe that most things that we can read here are of high value and therefore deserve respect to Mr Bob Dancer’s lifetime activity in the gambling business.
    Fair enough, he (Bob) mentioned himself over and over again that you need to be lucky when playing the big games as they are most likely the defining moments of your “career” as a videopoker gambler. When you hit the Royals while playing for the really big money and get your bad streaks while playing small time money then it helps a lot.

    As far as I remember, Bob mentioned himself that there was a time when he was heavily over-royaled while playing for the super big money , and it helped him a lot. From those times came his idea to write the Million Dollar Videopoker Poker book.
    While a human lifetime may not long enough to achieve the “long run” it is probably true that luck is a dominant factor. However, on your way trying to achieve your long run it’s definetely recommended to make the right decisions in crucial moments. Adding poor decisions together and disregarding this rule may probably lead to higher swings, especially downwards. That’s what nobody wants I guess.

    From Switzerland

    Boris

  10. Let me tell you a fact, Jerry. Bob Dancer has forgotten more about video poker than you will ever know.
    Please keep your snide remarks to yourself, lest you show your ignorance.

  11. I can assure you this, WITHOUT a players card you would’ve NEVER heard of “Bob Dancer”.

  12. Boris:

    I have thought about what you said for a long time. Books by Linda Boyd, Jean Scott, Bob Dancer. Whenever I go into the Gambler’s General Store on Main Street in Las Vegas, I am always amazed about the amount of information out there about every casino game. And I have bought a lot of them.

    There are probably stories that we will never hear. Stories about people who were around when Si Redd’s first machines came out and they owned the first rudimentary home computers. People who played those quarter draw poker machines, went home and entered the pay tables into their computers and started to create strategies.

    And made a lot of money.

    And never told anybody.

    And never wrote a book.

    From Arizona

    Sangria

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