In March, the Palms is giving away a 2013 Volkswagen Jetta every Saturday — along with other cash prizes. At the start of the month, I figured I’d play to earn entries for the car drawings on Saturday the 16th and Saturday the 30th. The weeks chosen were somewhat arbitrary and partly determined by other things that were going on in my world during the month.
For this type of drawing, you earn virtual entries based on your play. Different denomination machines earn entries at different rates and slots earn more tickets per coin-in than video poker. In addition, on Fridays and Saturdays between 8 p.m. and midnight, your play will generate 3x drawing entries.
On both Friday and Saturday evenings at 8 p.m., ten winners receive $500 and a “key” to the car. At most, you can win one key each night. After that week’s final Saturday night drawing, the 20 keyholders will see who wins the car and who gets free play prizes ranging from $100 to $400. It is impossible to play enough to guarantee being called at the drawings. And even if you get called both Friday and Saturday nights (rare — but it happens), you still only have a 2-out-of-20 chance to win the car.
If you don’t want the Jetta, you get $18,000 worth of credit toward any car the dealer will sell you. If you want cash, you get $15,000 on the spot. If you want free play, you get $3,000 for each of five weeks. (All numbers in this paragraph are rounded slightly.) Without going into great detail, taking cash includes a 1099 tax form. Often taking free play does not include such a form.
Since I wanted to have a lot of tickets for the March 15th and 16th drawing, I was there at 8 p.m. on Saturday the 9th so I could get 3x drawing tickets for four hours. My game of choice was 50¢ Ten Play Double Double Bonus Ultimate X. This is the highest returning game at the casino where you can earn drawing tickets. It’s also a “heaven or hell” game where you either win big or lose big. It’s not for the faint of heart.
In the four hours while I was earning multiple drawing entries, I lost $20,000. A disappointing result to be sure, but not that unusual on this machine. There have been many times when I’ve hit jackpots on this machine, but when they don’t come, I lose a lot.
A man named “Pete” asked what my score was on the machine. Although I don’t always share my results with people, this time I did. Pete thought about it and responded. “You tell me you were trying to win a car worth $18,000 at most. How does it make any sense at all to lose $20,000 trying to win $18,000? Isn’t that pretty stupid gambling?”
Apples and oranges.
If Pete’s “logic” makes sense to you, perhaps you’re not cut out to be a successful gambler. Successful gamblers think differently than “normal” folks. Even when I try to explain, there are always some people who believe I’m speaking an incomprehensible foreign language. Nevertheless I will now try again.
(Part of Pete’s thinking was based on the fact that these numbers are big for him. If he lost $20,000 in four hours it would be disastrous. I’m fine with these stakes. If it makes it easier for you to think logically if we say it was a $200 loss and the prize is $180 — go ahead. The principle is the same.)
When you play Ultimate X, you can earn multipliers on each hand which get applied to the following hand. If you’re dealt a straight, for example, which happens every 255 hands or so, all scores on the next screen (all ten hands) are multiplied by 8. At the 50¢ level which I was playing, each royal would now be worth $16,000. Each aces-with-a-kicker would be worth $8,000. Regular quads would be worth $1,000. So dealt quads would now be worth between $10,000 and $80,000 depending on which ones are dealt.
Should I be dealt a flush, which happens every 509 hands, the multipliers are 10 on the following screen and so all the numbers in the preceding paragraph are increased by 25%. A dealt full house, which comes around every 694 hands, yields a multiplier of 12 for each of the ten hands on the following screen and so the numbers are increased accordingly.
Although dealt hands give you the biggest numbers, you don’t need a dealt hand to get good scores. ANY flush receives a multiplier of 10 on the following individual hand. If you get a royal on that line next hand, you receive $20,000. ANY full house earns a multiplier of 12. If you get aces and a kicker on that line next hand, you receive $12,000.
When I was behind $15,000 (at around 11 p.m.), I couldn’t know whether I was going to be ahead or behind at midnight. The good hands happen all at once and out of the blue. Machines that have been “taking” all night long can suddenly become very generous. Players who believe that losing on a machine for three hours straight means they will lose the fourth hour as well are simply not thinking rationally. They might lose. They might win. There’s no way to know before that fourth hour is actually played.
Successful gamblers always consider several factors before making their decisions on what to play: 1) the return of the game (Double Double Bonus Ultimate X is complicated and how close to the 99.86% EV you get depends on the strategy you’re using and the skill with which you are implementing that strategy); 2) the slot club (0.25% in free play at the Palms); 3) the promotion (in this case, 3x drawing entries plus mailers); and 4) what other opportunities are available (in my case — nothing nearly so good on that night).
The fact that the car is worth $18,000 (or $15,000 to me as I will likely take the free play should I be fortunate enough to win) is a complete non-factor in my when-to-quit decision. It was a big factor in deciding whether or not I should play this promotion heavily, but once that decision was made, the value of the car became irrelevant. Even if I end up with the most entries, there’s a significant chance that I won’t be called at all, and a very significant chance that I won’t be called both nights.
I’m writing this on Sunday, March 10. I’m planning to play a lot more this week at the Palms. At this moment, I have no idea whether I will hit something big and come out ahead or continue to get buried. Although I would prefer to be ahead this week, it doesn’t really matter. It’s close to a 100% certainty that when December 31, 2013 comes around, I will be ahead for the year. If one continues to make sound decisions based on only playing positive games — including everything — and one has the bankroll to survive the swings, good things will happen score-wise. You don’t know when the good results will happen. You don’t know at which casino. But they will come to you.
Author’s update: Monday March 18. The drawing has come and gone. I played several additional times during the week, losing a bit more along the way. Fortunately I was called twice in the drawing. Unfortunately I received almost the bare minimum. ($500 cash each time. $100 and $150 in free play.) Still, it is better to be called than not to be called. Even though this week was not profitable, I remain convinced that this a good play and will be ready to do it again beginning next Saturday evening.