Chicago gets serious; Ohio recovering but Missouri swoons

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D), having received 11 expressions of interest in a megaresort (two of them an exacta by MGM Resorts International and MGM Growth Properties) is ready to issue a request for proposals sometime next month. We’ll then see which of the 11 makes it to the semifinals, as would-be operators finally have to talk turkey. One incentive to do so is that the casino license comes with concessions for slot routes at the Windy City’s two major airports. Also, tax rates have been ratcheted down sufficiently that what was once a 1%-2% potential profit margin now looks more like 20%, best-case scenario. The bare-bones cost of a metro casino, according to one survey commissioned by Lightfoot, is $750 million. However, it was pointed that such comparable facilities as MGM National Harbor ($1.4 billion) and Encore Boston Harbor ($2.6 billion) came with substantially higher price tags, and Chicago leaders want a destination property, not ‘slots in a box.’ Wall Street analysts are projecting seemingly insane amounts of revenue: $833 million in Year One, then $929 million, then $1 billion in the third year. That doesn’t count the two-year temporary casino (with an option for a third year).

Proximity to tourist-frequented areas is important, beyond the obvious reason, because most of the potential rivals are well outside the immediate metro area. That would mean weaning customers away from well-established properties like Rivers Casino Des Plaines and Harrah’s Joliet, not to mention creating a destination casino so alluring that patrons would be willing to brave rush-hour traffic on the Dan Ryan Expressway, for instance. A metropolitan casino would be of convenience mainly to tourists, conventioneers (an important customer tranche) and downtown residents.

It’s as interesting to see who’s not in the running—Caesars Entertainment and Las Vegas Sands, with the latter’s non-participation particularly striking. Possibly having seller’s remorse for having unloaded a majority interest in Rivers Casino, one of the entrants is Rush Street Gaming. Being Chicago-based, it has favorite-son status. Others who have dipped a toe are Chicago Neighborhood Initiative, Christiansen Capital Advisors, generically named Development Management Associates, DL3 Realty, R2 Companies and Related Midwest. Except for the latter, none has gaming experience and would have to likely enlist a brand-name operator to emerge from the pack. Six of the candidates favor a temporary casino, preferably near downtown.

Eight of the respondents want to be downtown permanently, one wanted to be in the Harborside complex (which includes a golf course) near the Indiana border and two expressed no preference. Easy access, “adequate parking,” juxtaposition to existing Chicago attractions and ability to exploit the Chicago River’s shores were also among the desiderata. Some developers expressed a willingness to let the city choose the site, which could bring locations like the defunct Michael Reese Hospital (which city consultants concluded had strong revenue-generation potential) back into play. Whatever the case, now we’re going to find out who’s serious and who’s just blowing smoke.

Next door, in Missouri, gaming revenues failed to keep pace with last year’s to the tune of -17%. The statewide gross was $86.5 million. Penn National Gaming grossly underperformed in the St. Louis area, plunging 41% (to $12 million) at Hollywood St. Louis and 29% at River City ($13 million). By contrast, Boyd Gaming was up 3.5% to $22 million at Ameristar St. Charles, the consequence of having the best facility in the state. At Lumiere Place, Caesars was down 6.5% to $13 million—and being tied for second place is no small accomplishment on Lumiere’s part. Over in Kansas City, newcomer Bally’s Corp. was the coffee achiever, boosting revenues at Isle Kansas City to $6.5 million, a 10% increase at a time when everyone else in the neighborhood was revenue-negative. Ameristar Kansas City‘s $14 million represented an 18.5% falloff, while Argosy Riverside was down 18% to $11.5 million and Harrah’s North Kansas City slipped 14% to $13 million.

Lifting of restrictions on Detroit casinos, while not a complete panacea, stemmed the bleeding to 29%, as the three heavyweights equaled all of Missouri with $86.5 million. Michiganders want to gamble! MGM Grand Detroit made the most—$34.5 million—but shed the most, -34.5%. Hard-charging MotorCity grossed $31 million, down 23%, and Greektown won $21 million for a 27% slippage.

Showing signs of bouncing back, Ohio was off only 7.5%, as casinos won $159 million. This is impressive, given capacity restrictions (50%) and truncated operating hours. Still siphoning business off from Detroit, Hollywood Toledo was one of only three revenue-positive casinos, up 2.5% to $17.5 million. That tally was matched by Hollywood Columbus, albeit off 13%. Top grosser in the state was MGM Northfield Park with $19 million, -15%, followed by Jack Cleveland‘s $18.5 million (-2%). Firm showings were made by Belterra Park, flat at $6.5 million, and Hollywood Mahoning Valley, also flat at $11 million. Hard Rock Cincinnati continues to be a problem child, tumbling 28.5% to $14 million, hard to fathom given its location. Scioto Downs was off 2.5% to $16 million, Jack Thistledown jumped 9% to $13.5 million and Miami Valley Gaming fell 16% to $13.5 million, while Hollywood Dayton leapt 8% to $11 million. It may not be a boffo month but it provides many hopeful signs.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is trying to be solomonic on sports betting, splitting 20 proposed licenses equally between the state’s Native American tribes and its pro sports teams. That irks bar and restaurant owners, who want their customers to have a flutter and who think the legislation is a case of them that has gets. (The tribes are being granted new table games in return for surrendering a desired monopoly on sports wagering.) Those left out have two principal beefs with Ducey, one that he’s keeping details of the deal he cut with tribes obscure and, two, that sports franchises shouldn’t be benefiting while small biz is left out in the cold. As state Sen. Michelle Urgent-Rita (R) put it, “I’m failing to understand the necessity of the sports team.”

She continued, “It reeks of a conflict of interest.” Chimed in state Sen. Tyler Pace, nailing the issue, “So I’m playing the game, but I’m also the house for the bet?” Of course BetMGM, FanDuel and DraftKings are all-in on the bill. Would one expect otherwise? Other Christmas ornaments are being attempted to be attached, such as the provision of keno for “fraternal or veterans’ organizations, racetracks, off-track betting facilities” and others holding a liquor license. Currently you can’t do that within five miles of a casino, which marks off a lot of territory. It may be an incongruous add-on but also might be enough to push Ducey’s bill through a fractious Lege.

Sports betting is having problems in Florida, too. Recall, the state lost Seminole Tribe revenue-sharing dollars by failing to enforce the tribe’s monopoly on table games. That money (at least $700 million) sure would come in handy now, which is why the Lege is pondering a bill to share sports wagering—taxed at 22.5%–between tribes, parimutuels and professional sports stadiums. (Finally! A reason to patronize a jai alai fronton.) The Seminoles oppose the legislation because they want exclusivity, plain and simple. Disney Worldwide is against it because it’s gambling, by golly, and because the state constitution now requires any gaming expansion to be put up to a vote of the people, period. Solons are trying to get around that with language that “sports wagering is not a form of gambling that was typically found in casinos as of November 6, 2018,” when voters changed the rules. Legislators are also trying to sell the ideas of sports betting as a game of “substantial skill.” The debate may be trumped by renewed negotiations between the state and Seminoles on a new, 20-year compact. Also, even if the bill passes, litigation is all but inevitable. The Mouse House will see to that.

Handle on sports bets in Illinois reached $581.5 million in January. “No state has come close to reaching $500 million in handle in such a short time frame after launching, and to reach that mark with just five online operators and retail casinos closed for much of January is even more impressive,” said PlayUSA analyst Jessica Welman. 99% of the action was generated online. Only New Jersey, Nevada and Pennsylvania saw higher handle that month. Operators kept $49.5 million, of which $7 million went into Gov. J.B. Pritzker‘s tax coffers. Those numbers will go higher if the Lege passes a bill removing the prohibition on betting on Illinois collegiate teams like Loyola and Northwestern. BetRivers/Rivers Casino Des Plaines fell to third place with $113 million in handle, surpassed by FanDuel/Par-A-Dice‘s $173.5 million and newly dominant DraftKings Casino Queen‘s $244 million—42% of market share. This was definitely a race that went to the tortoise (DraftKings) rather than the hare (BetRivers), with Barstool Sports yet to enter the market at the end of this week.

A dark horse has emerged in the sweepstakes to manage Venelazzo. Global Gaming News reports that the holdings of Apollo Management include Great Canadian Gaming Corp. Since Apollo owns the ‘operating company’ rights to the former Las Vegas Sands assets on the Strip, it gets to pick the new management. Why go outside the fold to Caesars or Penn when it can stay in-house and put Great Canadian on the job? This bears watching.