Caesars, MGM lead Vegas recovery; Florida compact dicey

Let’s start with some good news. JP Morgan analyst Joseph Greff laid out a series of benchmarks for a Las Vegas comeback across the second half of 2021 (one year earlier than anticipated). “We think these data points are indicative of the strong and relatively quick inflection of demand on the LV Strip, with particular importance for group/convention business into the fall,” he wrote. While this rising tide should lift all boats, Greff picked MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment to be particular beneficiaries, with Station Casinos and Boyd Gaming getting a lift off the back end.

For starters, airlines are coming back in a big way. Airlift capacity into Las Vegas is expected to be at 93% of 2019 levels by June and 97% by July, compared to a national average of 85% and 89% for those same months. And in September, when convention season starts in earnest, airlift is expected to be above 2019 levels. As for room rates, 3Q21 prices still lag 2018 by 8% but 6% higher on weekends. Caesars’ occupancy has already risen to 84% in March from on 72% in February and can be expected to keep moving the needle, with weekends sold out “for the foreseeable future.” As payrolls grow in other industries, discretionary income increases and unemployment continues to drop, the benefits trickle down to Boyd and Station.

The latter two can also take heart from an influx of high-income newcomers from other states, seeking a tax haven. Also indicative of a growing pool of money are rising home prices in the Vegas Valley, particularly in Summerlin, a market which Station (Red Rock Resort) and Boyd (Aliante Casino) are well-positioned to tap. As for rising wages, they’ve taken some employers off-guard. One who is particularly unversed in the laws of supply and demand is Zenshin and Island Sushi & Grill Director of Operations Steven Kim. “‘How much do you pay?’ That’s one of the first questions out of their mouth,” he loutishly complained. “When they opened the economy they should have decreased the amount of unemployment.” Kim doesn’t mind charging $17 for a sushi roll but balks at paying a living wage. More clued in is Alicart‘s Jeffrey Bank, who told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, “When was the last time in history this many jobs were created in four weeks, six weeks? This is a tsunami of an opening. Employees have a chance to decide where they want to work.”

It’s not just restaurants. MGM and Las Vegas Sands are actively shopping for new employees, symptomatic of a larger problem in the hotel industry. As HotelsMag.com puts it, “The hotel industry is built on hourly wages and some people have migrated to other industries, or other areas, often in search of higher hourly wages.” This is great for prospective hotel workers, who find themselves coveted assets, but a headache in the executive suites. They can’t get by paying employees dirt-poor wages anymore, especially now that H2B visas have been curtailed, throttling the flow of migrant workers. Oh, the pity of it! At least some foresee an eventual return to business as usual. “When you get to a normalized environment,” said Chris Nassetta, CEO of Hilton Hotels, “the working capital things sort of go back to the way they were.” In other words, make hay while the sun shines, hotel employees-to-be.

Sports betting and tribal-casino expansion in Arizona are a go. The Department of Interior gave its blessing to Gov. Doug Ducey‘s new compact-cum-sports betting bill. (Don’t forget DFS, also OK’d.) Regulations for sports betting and DFS are still unwritten, so wagers probably won’t be placed until September, just in time for NFL season and MLB‘s stretch drive. Lawmakers, however, already have dollar signs dancing in their eyes. “You’ve got to remember, it’s not just sports betting, it’s fantasy sports, it’s keno, it’s more revenue because the casinos are having more people there,” said state Rep. Jeff Weninger. “They’re going to have craps now, they’re going to have baccarat now.” Weninger projects $100 million a year in new tax revenue but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

With Arizona resolved, it’s Florida‘s turn at Interior. The new compact with the Seminole Tribe isn’t a straight up-or-down proposition, since Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) included a ‘severability clause’ that preserves most of the deal if the feds balk at the convoluted sports-betting provision whereby all the action is run through servers on Seminole land. The Seminoles admit they’ve got their work “cut out for us.” However, Hard Rock International CEO Jim Allen swears that they thought through this sports betting thing back when they were pushing Amendment 3, which butts the Lege out of gambling expansion. “I assure you, those conversations were had with Mr. [John] Sowinski before we ever wrote a check for $22 million,” said Allen, alluding to a notorious gaming opponent and the george Amendment 3 contribution the Seminoles gave in a politics-makes-strange-bedfellows alliance. “We may be naïve but we’re not crazy.” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland will be the judge of that.

Not surprisingly, Sowinski’s memory does not accord with Allen’s. He says sports betting was not “typically found in casinos” at the time of Amendment 3, adding, “It does not comport with our understanding of IGRA or any attorney we’ve spoken with, and we’ve spoken with a lot of them across the country,” an allusion to the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. One devil in the details of the DeSantis compact is the inclusion of parimutuels in sports betting, although they have to pay the Seminoles 40% of gross revenue for the privilege. That could be a very sticky sticking point. “When we look at the overall state, we are going to testify to the Department of Interior that we do believe there is enough exclusivity to justify the revenue-share payments from the tribe to the state to make sure we have not crossed the line into a taxation situation,” said Allen. And with $7 billion in illegal sports-betting revenues already being made in Florida, Allen is in a high-stakes game. Mind you, Interior has never approved mobile wagering for a tribal casino, so Hard Rock faces adverse odds.

In other sports-betting news, Illinois lawmakers are debating getting rid of the state’s onerous in-person-registration requirement (and the ban on in-state collegiate betting). They’re also looking into Internet gambling. It’s early days yet: 12 bills are in the hopper pertaining to these issues. Still, it’s progress. Encouragingly, legislators want to get i-gaming up and running faster than sports betting, which took nearly two years from legalization to inception. State Rep. Robert Rita (D) fretted that it would cause job losses at brick-and-mortar casinos. He should have thought of that when Illinois approved slot routes, in which it now leads the country with over 7,000 locations. That’s what’s killing the casino industry in the Land of Lincoln.

In addition to a lap dance, visitors to Larry Flynt’s Hustler Club in Las Vegas can get their Coronavirus vaccinations, thanks to the government’s approval of the Hustler Club as a pop-up vaccine site. Reports Fox News, “Patrons who show proof of vaccination at the club will … be treated to a one-year Platinum membership, dances from a vaccinated stripper, complimentary bottle of alcohol and tickets to Sexxy After Dark with a limousine pickup.” That’s thinking way out of the box. Credit the Southern Nevada Health District with being innovative. “This is just another way to access our population,” demurred SNHD Chief Nurse JoAnn Rupiper. Added one approving wife, “To take away the stodginess of it, to make it Hustler, it’s very clever.”

Jottings: Phil Mickelson came through big time for a lucky punter at Hollywood Charles Town. The anonymous bettor put down $100 on Mickelson to win the 2021 PGA Championship and took home $25,000. As Penn National Gaming‘s Erich Zimny said, “This is a great example of the type of winning wager that makes sports betting so much fun!” … Add SportRadar to the official gaming partners of the Baltimore Ravens. Still no love for Horseshoe Baltimore … Pennsylvania casinos are pressuring the Lege—and with good reason—to outlaw thousands of black-market slot machines. The devices compete with licensed casinos but are neither licensed, regulated nor (worst of all) taxed … Is the fix in for R&R Partners? We’ll soon know. The Las Vegas Convention & Visitors Authority entertained pitches from would-be marketers of Sin City, including Grey Global Advertising, which represents Microsoft already. Two other agencies also pitched. The decision comes down mid-July … A frail-looking Mike Ditka kicked off Barstool Sports‘ mobile wagering in Indiana. The rollout will be promoted with “risk-free bets, parlay insurance, and an array of wagering options related to the upcoming NBA playoffs and the Indianapolis 500 auto race” … Always count on American Hotel & Lodging Association prexy Chip Rogers to come up with a bad idea. He’s stumping for hotels to abolish mask-wearing requirements—but without backstopping that by asking for proof of vaccination. Who cares about health when there’s money to be made?