I’ve written before how I sometimes play at various Dotty’s outlets. My usual pattern is to play about $100,000 coin-in each time I go.
In January, I received an offer from Dotty’s that was the first ever of its kind, in my experience anyway. They sent me a two-night stay at either the Hoover Dam Lodge or Laughlin River Lodge. The offer included $1,100 in free play and $150 in resort credit.
The Hoover Dam Lodge is about 25 miles away from where we live. I told Bonnie that for $1,100 I planned on going. If she wanted to go too, after we paid for dinner, she could spend the rest of the resort credit in the gift shop. She decided she had time to do this.
I assumed that the games and promotions would be the same at HDL as they were at regular Dotty’s outlets. Based on this assumption (which turned out to be correct), my plan was to invest $150,000 – $200,000 coin-in on the play. Dotty’s was making this offer in the hopes of generating additional play and, if I ever want to receive another offer like that, I had better play. Nobody told me to play that much. It’s just the amount that “felt right,” given the parameters of the offer.
I ended up losing $4,800 on the play. If you count the free play earned, future mailers, promotional entries earned, my loss was reduced to maybe $4,100, meaning the promotion cost me $3,000 (minus the hotel room night, dinner, and two blouses and set of earrings that Bonnie brought home.)
I told someone about this and they told me that I was confused about how to play these promotions. I was told that if they send you $1,100 the basic rule is stop before you lose it all. Maybe lose $1,000 and keep $100. Maybe donate $900 and keep $200. Something like that. I was told it is just plain idiotic to get such a generous offer and give it all back and then some.
Apples and oranges.
Remember, Dotty’s has games that I would play anyway that week even without receiving the extra $1,100. My daily scores are sometimes plus and sometimes minus, depending on the luck factor on that particular day. I took $10,000 with me and was willing to spend all of that plus the $1,100 they gave me. There have been days at Dotty’s that I’ve lost that much. There have been days I’ve won more than that. I truly have no idea of what my score will be “this time.”
The $1,100 was, basically, a gift to my bankroll, both short term and long term. It changed my short-term bankroll (i.e. cash on hand) from $10,000 to $11,100 and my long-term bankroll (however much it is) was increased by the same amount. This gift was given to me as a reward for past play and as an incentive to get me to play more on this particular trip.
Once that money becomes part of my bankroll, it has no more special significance. The number is entered on my daily log and then I go from there.
I actually could have stiffed the Hoover Dam Lodge. Because of a glitch in their player tracking system on the day I got there, I received $1,100 in cash and a gift card for $150. Bonnie and I could have eaten, gone to the gift shop, and then gone home immediately. I’m sure some people have done that, but not me.
Monthly mailers are a part of the Dotty’s system. Any month my play drops down, my future mailers are affected as well. I had no reason to expect this offer would be treated any differently. Collect money without playing and your future offers decrease. Many players have learned this the hard way.
If I had to do it over again, I would have played it exactly the same way. Except on the do-over, I’d have hit a royal flush!
Just curious as to of what value this information is to those of us who don’t play $100,000 coin-in a session, at Dotty’s or otherwise. In Vegas at least, any worthwhile strategy of playing a -EV game in the hopes of generating future mailers that will offset the expected loss involves dumping in huge amounts of coin-in, fading high volatility, and being prepared to stomach losses that in a single day, can easily exceed what the average person makes in a year. The only useful takeaway I can see here is “don’t stiff them,” but that’s kind of obvious.
You just answered your own question, the “obvious” one. Don’t stiff them. By far the majority of other players I know cannot help but treat “free play” differently, and I don’t understand why. Many of them are very experienced, been playing for years, but still can’t stand “losing” that free play. Unless you are absolutely sure that you will never set foot in that place again, there is no reason to think of free play differently. Even then, you never know, someday, new management, new promotions, don’t burn bridges, duh. It’s one loooong game. Unless you’re planning on dying tomorrow. And I don’t think the size of Bob’s action, nor the place he was playing at, had much to do with the point of the article.
Relax
I think Bob is just showing how hard it is to play video poker these days, you need a monster bankroll and you need to play at casinos offstrip that most would consider to be dives and avoid the luxury high roller lounges. Even quarter full pay deuces wild is difficult, you need the mad skillz to hardly ever make a live play mistake and if you use the Kelly system you need at least 2925/2 x $1.25 = $1,828.13, and even more if you reject the Kelly system which is a mathematical minimum assuming no significant live play error rate.
Well, the question certainly arises: if you can afford to risk $100,000 in a single day, why do you need to seek out video poker opportunities at all? I mean, yeah, it’s tough to find worthwhile edges, but surely, there are other endeavors/investments that would offer a comparable return at little or no risk. And significantly–those investments would be mostly passive and would require little personal time. One seldom-mentioned aspect of advantage play is opportunity cost–when you’re doing it, you could have been doing something else. And even at Danceresque stakes and with perfect expertise, making significant money at VP requires significant time, so little of which is allotted to us on this mortal orb. Frankly, if I had Bob’s bankroll, I would be doing anything BUT playing VP. I’d be going on world cruises and driving BMWs. All the while earning 3.22 percent from my bond portfolio.
Returning from the heights of Mount Olympus to grubby full-pay quarter deuces land, I usually don’t bother to calculate Kelly because as you say, the precise number depends on your criteria, including the RoR you’re willing to tolerate. I simply use these criteria for overall bankroll (not session bankroll): low-volatility games, 3 royals; medium-volatility games, 4 royals; high-volatility games, 5 royals. Depending on the game, this puts my RoR at 2% or less, which is good enough for me.
Thanks, Bob. Enjoy the column.
I think Bob is explaining a professional’s approach to mailers and freeplay. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose. Variance is always a factor . His play was +1100 ev regardless of the outcome,imo…
p.s.
his class on bonus deuces wild was GREAT !!
I see the commentary about the 100k coin in but:
” I took $10,000 with me and was willing to spend all of that plus the $1,100 they gave me. There have been days at Dotty’s that I’ve lost that much. ”
I’m thinking he means that between his buy in and the amount won, his total wagered amount would be 100k.
Am I wrong on this?
Come on sondjata, don’t let the facts get in the way. Kevin’s on a roll.
Steve, even if the numbers are different, my point remains, which is that the vast majority of us don’t play at the stakes Bob is routinely comfortable with, and the overall strategy of playing -EV games with the idea of getting compensated for losses by mailers is risky, requires a great deal of capital, and mandates a great deal of risk tolerance. I think that strategy, quite useful ten years ago, is pretty much dead in the water now unless you’re willing to absorb huge potential losses.
Agree. Bob lives in a different world than most.
I find his writings entertaining, yet not practical. But I’m just s gambler, not an AP.
At the $5 to $250 per hand level, Dotty’s is probably the loosest video poker available today. Shame on the rest of the casinos for not competing.
Exactly!
Many players have $10,000 gaming sessions. I do and most AP’s I know (I don’t play VP, but play Blackjack professionally)
$100,000 coin in does NOT mean he’s risking $100,000 of his money that could afford the Porches, factions etc that you mentioned. With all due respect, pay attention. He litterally said he brought $10,000 with him!
The most important point in this article is — “The number is entered in my daily log.”
Good observation, more details at irs.gov publication 529 page 12.
I can’t see any reason NOT to just play the free play hit the road. If one plays at the in town Dotty’s anyway why risk BR out of town?
The Hoover Dam Lodge is 25 miles from my home. Yes, it’s officially out of town — but no it’s not.
All Dotty’s play is accumulated into one bucket when they determine your mailers and other benefits. I definitely considered this a “regular” Dotty’s, even though it is some distance away.
Dotty’s card is basically universal to any Dotty’s, other than lodging they aggregate play and promotions. Why CET and MGM don’t do this is a mystery. It’s certainly convenient if you’re cruising around Clark County anyway to be able to stop in at every neighborhood Dotty’s along the way and play a bit at each to break up your day. It just looks a lot better if you leave after you hit a hand pay instead of continuing and getting another which just looks greedy and attracts unwanted attention.
I think greed is good?
Gambling addiction is and has been the hardest thing in my life to overcome. It is impossible to come out ahead of this addiction. I wish I hated gambling, after all I’ve lost I should. But I continue to love gambling. I’m addicted. 40 years of gambling has cost me countless hours of precious time , and $100 of $1,000 of dollars . IRS problems, shame of addiction and on and on. Anyways be carefull.
Hi Bob. I came across your story and I had to comment that if I had $100 I would spend it at Dotty’s. I love Dotty’s!! Lol. Anyway, thank you for the story and if at anytime you feel like spending the day at Dotty’s give me a holler I would love to help you gamble $100,000 any day!!