There was a news story recently that 11 years ago, a college professor had told Julian Edelman (currently a New England Patriot wide receiver with two Super Bowl rings) that his goal of playing football professional was unrealistic and he should try something else. The teacher recently sent Edelman an apology for doubting his passion — Good for her! — and Edelman tweeted, “Set your goals high. Do whatever it takes to achieve them. #motivation.”
It turns out that Edelman went far beyond what this teacher thought he could do. But it also might be true that if this same teacher discouraged 25 other men from trying out for the NFL, she may well have been correct the other 25 times. Edelman is an exception — an undersized guy who made it through with a lot of grit and determination — and clearly there was some luck involved. (Not having a debilitating injury has to be a mixture of skill and luck.)
The reason I bring this us is that I also am a teacher. During the first session of my most recent semester of free video poker classes, one young man — I’m guessing 30 years old — “Charlie” — wasn’t very impressive in class. My class is interactive and I ask each student a question in turn. It’s pretty obvious to me if somebody has a knack for the game or not. By listening to how they answer the questions, how fast they grasp concepts, and the questions they ask, it’s not that hard for me to make some sort of an evaluation.
Still, it’s just my opinion. It’s at least possible that someone whom I think has no chance of becoming a decent player ends up being a successful one — in whatever way you wish to define that. It is, however, an educated opinion. I’ve been around successful gamblers for more than 40 years and there are recognizable patterns. Every successful gambler is different from all the others, but things such as apparent intelligence, a curiosity about how things work, and the ability to grasp concepts are pretty common.
Anyway, after the class, Charlie came up and told me he had recently received a settlement. He had $40,000 total, supplemented his living driving for Uber, and wanted to become rich playing video poker. What should I say?
It’s always a guess as to how much to encourage somebody. I really don’t want to give anybody false hope. Yes, I would earn a few extra dollars for each of my books and software that he purchased, but truly that’s small change. Telling somebody they have a great chance to succeed when I believe the opposite is true is not what I’m about.
At the same time, telling him flatly, “You have no chance at all,” isn’t what I’m about either. He might have been having an off day and he might be much smarter and more dedicated than I originally surmised. Although I was pretty sure I was correct in my judgment about him, I’ve been wrong before about many things.
So I told him that percentagewise, very few video poker players can support themselves just by gambling. It’s tough to succeed and a lot of players are competing with each other to do this. There is simply not enough room for everybody to make money at this. When this occasionally happens, casinos tighten up and then all the players struggle to find the next great opportunity.
I told him that the successful ones have some aptitude and work very hard perfecting their craft. And luck plays a role as well. You will likely hit “about” the right number of royals over time, but if you’re playing both quarter and dollars, it makes a big difference whether the royals you hit are quarter royals or dollar royals.
I also told him that while $40,000 sounded like a lot of money, money goes pretty fast when you’re paying rent, automobile expenses, whatever. If you’re using that money for both living and gambling, going through that in a year or two is very possible — even with some extra money coming in from driving. And then what?
Finally, I recommended he practice on the computer rather than in the casino. In-casino practice is very expensive. Playing on the nickel machines to save money isn’t usually a good option because those pay schedules are typically very bad. Even I would be a loser on most nickel pay schedules.
Anyway, that’s what I told him. I tried to balance being realistic with being reasonably supportive. What would you have said?
(Author’s note: After the first class and after this blog was written, Julian Edelman suffered a tear in the ACL of his right knee and will out all season. My reference early in this blog to Edelman being lucky to avoid debilitating injury now seems awkward in light of more recent events. I left the reference in unchanged — as the story was about Charlie, not Edelman. Writing blogs a month in advance means I’m not under big deadline pressure, but also sometimes current events change what I have written.)
I guess the only problem with what bob told the prospective gambler is it didn’t really leave a door open to giving it the ‘ol college try. Maybe he should practice a dew games for a whie(basic 9/6 jacks, a basic deuces game, and maybe a basic double bonus game. Then Take a shot at the big time on quarters on some good vp free rated machines, and play say ten hours a week, where the players club, payback etc all look fairly enticing. See how it goes, see how it feels, and let him see if maybe he really has the knack for learning and doing it. That way he will have taken the shot at his dream, without a total wipe out. Better than to have never opened the door. I guess to me it seems like we all have dreams and people need to be encouraged, where possible to “take their best shot” at those dreams. Amen.
I think that Bob gave him accurate advice. For the reader who felt “Bob didn’t really leave a door open to giving it the ‘ol college try.” I want to say that statement seems a bit patronizing and cliche. The man needs to be smart enough on his own if he thinks he has it in him to be successfu and shouldl. “Wanting” to be successful and rich, has nothing to do with aptitude and the will-power to do what it takes to be successful.
Good luck finding a positive equity gwinning machine among the godless vultures swarming around.
Godless vultures?
There are a number of opportunities.
Finding them depends on your knowledge, your bankroll, and how much you search. Intelligence plays a role too — as does where you are playing
He had $40,000 total, supplemented his living driving for Uber, and wanted to become rich playing video poker.
That’s a goal, not a plan.
I realize Mr. Dancer doesn’t get paid to be a coach but I’d have sat the man down and asked him how he planned to achieve it. It’s easy to have a goal of moving to Vegas and make a living playing casino games.
Thousands of people do, including myself. When I sat down and started working out a plan, I realized my real goal wasn’t to earn a living off of gambling, but instead it was to earn a living without working at a regular job. Notice I didn’t say without working, because it takes work to succeed in almost anything.
Eighteen months later, I’ve made a number of adjustments to my plan, but my goal has pretty much been accomplished.
$40,000 and a way to make money with Uber is a decent beginning, but expenses can eat that up in two years if you are not careful. Rent, food, a car and insurance can run close to two grand a month if you live in a nice area, without things like health insurance, cell phones and the like.
I don’t disagree with Bill Ryan’s basic premise, but it’s not my habit to mentor everyone who comes along.
I did tell him that the last class of the semester (coming next Wednesday October 4 at noon) is probably the most important one for him. Its ‘Secrets of a Video Poker Winner’ and it discusses many of the topics Bill Ryan mentioned — among other things
If you want to get rich playing VP these days, you should already be rich to begin with.
Vegas still has quarter full pay deuces wild, or am I wrong? Maybe even for 10 quarters. That’s the game to start at, see how things go. If you master that, then you should consider looking around for what you can get for larger bets, but it’s a big step from full pay deuces wild to something potentially better. No doubt many have failed at this step, make sure you have enough reserve to go back if necessary, indeed using the Kelly system can’t be recommended enough, IMHO. (simple Kelly system: don’t bet if your current bankroll is under variance/edge bets, find something lower in denomination or quit and rebuild your bankroll from your day job) (also, W2G’s start at $1200, this opens a whole nuther problem with tax considerations which can easily turn your “win” into a “loss” after taxes, don’t wait till tax time to find this out)
It’s funny how after hearing dozens if not hundreds of successful men and women tell how early on they were told by experts they’d never make it–and, of course, they did–we still believe that there are those out there who can predict the likelihood of success with any amount of accuracy. Edelman’s story is not so rare. In fact, it’s probably more the rule than the exception. On the flipside, look at all the prodigies who were coddled all their lives and told by experts they were destined for greatness, and then failed miserably. No one can predict how far someone can go because we can never know for sure how dedicated they truly are.
In my opinion, you told “Charlie” exactly what he needed to be told. If he is at least somewhat smart, and he really wants it, then he will follow your advice and give himself a much better chance to succeed. It is not your duty/obligation to do any more or less.
It is important to set goals and a plan for how to achieve those goals. I have heard countless times that here in America, there is nothing you can’t accomplish if you work hard enough and are willing to do whatever it takes to attain your goals.
Yes, physical and intellectual limitations may make it a much more difficult road than those who are gifted, but determination and drive should not be underestimated. How well the person deals with setbacks and failures will also be a factor as to degree of success.
In any event, even failure and discovering that this road was not the right one will be invaluable as a life-lesson in finding your strengths and weakness, so that when you do go down the right road for you, you will know what it takes to succeed.