I recently received this email — slightly shortened and lightly edited:
Just got back from my first trip to Mohegan Sun in Connecticut and Foxwoods.
Game: 9/7 Double Bonus. $1 denomination. Five credits at a time.
Results:
Day 1: +$1,400.00. Mohegan Sun.
Day 2: -$2,000.00 Foxwoods. (Only hit one four-of-a-kind in 4 hours of play).
-$400.00 Mohegan.
Tally: $-1,000.00 – I would estimate around 7-8 hours of continuous play.
Question: I was absolutely frigid ice cold at Foxwoods. I tried moving machines 5 or 6 times. They all ended up being pretty much the same, which is not usually the case for me. Usually, I can jump on another one and at least initially, start doing better which sometimes leads to positive momentum and other times not.
I probably answered my own question here, but I was just curious what you do during a long session of +4 hours or more when you’re on the losing end of the variance. Do you continuously play on the same machine from the beginning of your session or switch?
Looking back of course hindsight being 20/20, the only thing different I would have done to protect my winnings from Day 1 a little better would have been to decrease my denomination somewhat perhaps to 50c. I honestly didn’t expect to take such an incredible beating after such a great Day 1, wasn’t even on my radar. Perhaps I wasn’t prepared, but on the other hand I still feel I played well. Nonetheless, I’m disappointed.
My first thought when I read this was, “No big deal. Welcome to dollar double bonus. Happens all the time.”
While I’ve never played a game as tight as 9/7 DB (99.1%) for such an extended period, unless there was an unusually good promotion along with it, I’ve had several hundred sessions of dollar 10/7 (100.2%) for similar time periods. Assuming we’re talking about $30,000 coin-in, the average loss for 9/7 is about $250 (for 10/7 it’s about $50 to the good), but a loss of $1,000 or even $2,000 is fairly commonplace.
There will be occasional sessions where you hit a royal, or multiple sets of good quads ($400 or $800) and have nice little wins. But barring those hands, you’ll often lose. That’s just how the game goes.
My guess is that the person who emailed me is either new to double bonus, or new to playing at dollars. (He will learn over time that a $2,000 loss is hardly an “incredible beating.”) There was a sort of “sticker shock” at the negative swings this time, but those will go away over time. You get used to them. I’m not sure why he was playing such a negative game for so many hours, but some players do that.
He says he likes to switch machines when things are going bad, and that this strategy has worked for him in the past. Basically, that doesn’t work. Sometimes it works, of course, and sometimes staying on the same machine turns things around as well. You can’t do both at the same time. Pick one. The fact that it did or didn’t work on one specific time had nothing to do with the “machine-switching.” It was simply a result that the 500 (say) hands you played after such and such a time had a different result than the 500 hands you played previously. This was going to be true whether you switched machines or not.
He also says that hindsight is 20/20. This, of course, is nonsense. At best, he’ll remember what happened “this time.” But “this time” is just one data point. Sometimes things will turn around after a slow start. Sometimes they won’t. Remembering one of the times they did, or didn’t, won’t tell you anything about what’s going to happen next time.
Over time, when you have dozens or hundreds of such data points, you begin to get a feel for the range of things that can happen. If your memory can keep all that straight (or you write your scores down and review them periodically), you begin to achieve wisdom. But remembering what happened during one session? Worthless.
I try not to play video poker at tribal casinos, as both of these are, as I can never remember which are true odds and which are legally rigged in the casino’s favor. Some tribal casinos have video poker games that are Class II so the RNG works differently than in the normal Class III games.
Playing this game may or may not be the highest paying game in certain casinos. I know that at my local casino, the Hard Rock Vancouver, this is the best game in the Game Kings, and it’s at the dollar level. All the other games are trash. Couple that with the slot club that pays back .5% in free play and I’m only bucking .4% house advantage. The variance can be brutal, but all in all, I’m fairly level. They even comped me a cruise, so not that bad when it’s all you have apart from flying down to Vegas.
To change VP machines or not, that is the question. I recall years ago Jean Scott saying (paraphasing here) “There is no reason to change machines.” I don’t know if she sticks with that philosophy to this day, but me, I have to move on if no hits in a ‘long’ time. Can’t say which is right.
There are a few gambling decisions I decided some time ago to do one way all the time, e.g. I stay on 12 to dealer’s 2 or 3 upcard. I know one way or the other (probably hit the 12) has a slight edge, but I just decided I’d hate myself less by doing it one way all the time, not bother to guess about it. I’m just a recreational/occasional player, so I suppose it comes out about even. No doubt the APs are laughing at me for saying it.
I played at several different NSUD machines at the Southpoint , game king machines. I experienced extremely different situation. I changed the machines when one had a broken sound generator that gave me zero gaming feeling. Or I changed when a machine had a broken button or was set to deal too fast without any sound. I stayed when I noticed a machine gave me several times 1 or 2 deuces on the deal. I also noticed that there are times during which you just can’t do anything right and the machine is dealing you garbage after garbage. I went through 100 or 150 dollars playing 50 cents denom and couldn’t hit any 4 of a kind so I became frustrated and changed the game.
I played on machines that almost all the time dealt me 1 or 2 deuces on the draw and I ended up with trips or quads most often. This is exciting as you believe it”s only a matter of time until you get dealt 3 deuces and fill up deuce no 4.
I also experienced 2 machines that at first gave me nothing at all for about 10 hands in a row and then all over sudden it dealt me a royal by holding just 2 or 3 cards. That was really extreme luck and made me wonder if changing machines makes any sense at all or if I should just play on and go through all the way , no matter what.
Today while my trip is over I look back and see that I had 18 sets of 4 deuces and 3 royal flushes in a time frame of 21 days of gaming. I played about 130’000 hands so I got about even on most of it. I could have received 2 or 3 sets of deuces on top to get the average share, but I could have come short on my royals. Flying back home with zero Royals in the pocket is frustrating and expensive. I received 3 and came out slightly head or at least even, discounting the tips and pricing in the comps (rooms etc). I enjoyed my time but know that my game was not optimum play at all times. I will have to study harder but I learned a lot and met terrific people. I even know that I am on the right way but a little bit scared that more and more casinos are eliminating the good games in which case I will completely stop playing videopoker. As sad as it would be.
From Switzerland
Boris
One huge thing Bob and the Emailer left out was, how well does he know optimal strategy for the game. This also can wildly sway your monetary results.
When you’re playing a negative EV game the more you play it the more you’re going to lose.
Tell me how to shake a 1st day loss and I’ll tell you how to “protect your winnings” from Day 1 of play …
Play volatility is the very first lesson a determined player must learn and accept.
While it is true that no action (or non-action) that we take will affect the physical results (what cards are dealt and then what cards appear on the Draw), still, you can take a step back and be sensible. Look at it this way: If you’ve played a long while on a machine and are way behind, that’s not a reason to change machines. There is a good likelihood that you’ll hit a quad or better within the next hour (those odds won’t get changed by the recent losing streak), so you may as well be sitting at the machine when the good hand appears. But if you change machines, then you won’t receive that nice hit. To the contrary: If you always change machines while you’re behind, then you make every mini-session be a losing one, and that’s the surest path to finishing behind for the day. You will finish way below the EV. The way to have the greatest chance of achieving the EV is to stay put on the same machine, because you will be present for all of its “goods” and all of its “bads”. You will get closest to the full spectrum of its possible ending-hands. With that in mind, 9/7 Double Bonus simply is not a good game. It’s a loser. As such, you should not play it and expect to finish ahead. So instead of playing it max-coin at the $1 level, you should only play it for fun, at the .25 level (or lower, if available). You should ask yourself which is bigger: the amount of money you’ll lose by playing a losing game at the $1 level (to earn a free room), or the amount of money you’d have to pay upfront for the room? And also: Which of the 2 has the ability to ruin your morale and your trip? Big losses can do that; hotel costs won’t.
If you feel the cards have gone cold, my advice would be to take a break altogether. Go up to your room to take a quick shower or watch a little TV. Take a walk around the casino and see what may have changed since your last visit. Take a dip in the pool. Grab a snack. In short, allow yourself to refocus. It’s possible that your bad run can affect your play. Recharge your battery and come back refreshed and ready to do battle.
we just returned from a week at Harrahs in Atlantic City.they have removed a lot of things we loved there,diamond lounges,buffets,restaurants during week close early,12 noon.Machines we loked only a few left.jokers wild progressives,super triple doubles,etc. removed.took us a half week to learn machines that hit some.a lot of people we saw have moved on to Borgata,etc.,they live in city and go frequently.
as long as I’m playing a positive game, the only time I change machines is if the machine has sticky buttons or some other defect or if there is some annoyance next to me.
Good Advice
Of course you are absolutely correct. Switching machines when you are on a downward jag, drawing meaningful conclusions based a single session of play, assuming there is some way to control normal mathematically destined variance are all wastes of time and energy But I’m continually astonished how many otherwise intelligent gamblers will not accept what they are doing is governed in the long term by mathematics, not luck.
Al
I would really enjoy listening to Dancer’s response to your theories.
I hear morons like this all the time talk. It is pure superstition and low gambling IQ. I recently played at Southpoint and some idiot was changing games every single hand so I had to listen to the annoying “max bet” sound on every hand. I politely asked him if he was going to do that for the foreseeable future (so I could cash out and get the hell away from him if so.) He went off on me, so I followed it up by calling him a complete superstitious moron.
Changing machines based on “how things are going” makes no difference at all in the long run. So there is no harm in doing it if it makes you feel better. But that’s the only benefit.
Well, this topic has been discussed for all of the 35 years I have been playing video poker.
If you believe the machines are fair and each hand is independent, then changing machines just takes up some time.
If you don’t believe machines are fair and each hand is independent, why are you playing?
When you believe you should change machines to get a better result, you are implying that the previous hands on this machine affect the next hands on this machine. If so, then you don’t believe hands are independent.
If you really believe in fair and independent, there are no streaks, no hot machines, none of that. Just a series of single hand results with no correlation to each other.
I agree it is a difficult concept to believe. But if hands aren’t independent, then the whole probability basis for strategies goes out the window. The game is tough enough to make money on with a fair game. If the game isn’t fair, there is zero reason to play.
Jimmy Jazz
If every new hand is completely independant from the previous and if it’s all random, then please explain to me how come that at times I am sitting on a machine where it keeps giving me 1 or 2 deuces almost every time I push the start button. It is really remarkable how this happens at times. I was at the Southpoint and played approx 5000-8000 hands every single day during my stay. I have had days that were so fantastic that I just couldn’t believe what I saw. If it’s random how can it be that you get so many deuces dealt to you before you change anything? I mean, hey, it can’t be that you get 1 or 2 deuces almost every time for about 2 hours of play in a row? It really happened to me that the guy next to me said it’s really amazing how many quads I get (which after all is one of the most important hands in the short run when you play NSUD). And then, I’ve been playing on machines where I just believed this game was without deuces at all! If you get 10 or 15 hands in a row and only sometimes get to see 1 deuces that gives you trips and many times still nothing, then it’s hard to understand that this scenario compared to the other scenario described above is really random
I must also throw in the fact that one royal flush I received at the Tuscany happend while I was playing on a machine which I believed was a “good” (or hot) machine because I got many times 1 or 2 deuces on the deal, which I absolutely loved. Then, all over sudden, I drew 2 cards while holding the 3-royal, and dang !!!! The other time, I was at the Southpoint again, while waiting for my set to get open in the Poker Room, I first played 100 dollars goofing around with quarters and then, when the first 100 were gone, I decided to click on 50 cents denom. I played a few more hands and still nothing. I went from 100 down to 35 on the credits when I got the 10-Q of diamonds and the machine gave me the other 3 big diamonds. If it’s totally random then I can agree with that and accidentally it happened to be the time when this combo was a royal flush hand !
What I’m trying to say is that sometimes a machine gives a lot of deuces before I change cards , which can be noticed, while at other times you don’t get to see hardly any deuce. And this is something that makes me wonder if it’s really random what’s happening on a videopoer machine. And what happens when there’s this short interruption and the machine is doing something? I noticed that there are times when for about 1/2 second the machine seems to reset and interrupts play before it continues. Can somebody explain what’s going on in that split second?
From Switzerland
Boris
Boris, shuffle up a real deck of cards, then deal out the 5 cards on top. You’ll see the same thing from time to time.
Jerry Ice and Jimmy Jazz
What do you think of the people doing the combo , that is pressing the max bet button all the time instead of the deal button once the game is in progress, plus the cash-out button, just to put the ticket back into the machine? This is another disturbing thing that creates unnecessary noise and in my opinion is nothing but a waste of time.
I asked people why they are doing it. Some respond that the by inserting new cash into a machine then there’s a chance the machine “Thinks” that it’s a new player and it gives you better hands to warm up the party….”. When I hear such non-sense I immediately stop conversation unless that player is an attractive lady who likes to have a drink with me or go to dinner together. Supersticious and ignorant players in combo are making things for the other players not easier.
I have watched a player cashing out all the time and everytime he hit something over 20 dollars , putting that ticket into his wallet and pulling out another 20 dollars bill to continue the game. Apart the fact that this is a brutally insane way of wasting paper, it’s also waste of time and no guarantee at all that the player will end up the session in the winning zone. Too often I see that the same player then fed the machine with a ticket which he previously cashed out because he had no additional 20 dollar bills to put back in. What a ridiculous way of wasting time and energy.
From Switzerland
Boris
I got my 2nd lifetime Royal at South Point last weekend, we went to Silverado Steakhouse, they took my brothers cell number to text us when the table was ready, they said one hour, so we went upstairs to the no smoking machines near the bowling alley. Almost immediately he said they texted me and the table was ready, so we left. He was mistaken, it was a “test text”, so he said lets go back. I was already too tired because all the walking from MGM Grand to the Raiders game, so I said lets just play these machines next to the restaurant. Hit the Royal five hands later, drew one card, Queen of Spades. Changing machines is random, as is luck, the only superstition I ever abide by is no fifty dollar bills, that one is just too freaking prevalent to ignore…
Southpoint No 1 !!! Great rooms, great variety of games, full service casino with all amenities, and competent staff. I checked out Don Vito’s as well as the Silverado. I find Don Vito’s the better pick because of a larger food variety. It’s minimal and both restaurants have great food. Also, the buffet has been just like pre-covid. Station Casinos made a huge mistake by closing their buffets. As well as Boyd. It shows : The people want the buffets, and with the buffets come the gamblers. It’s simply not true that because of the majority of people visiting the buffet don’t gamble and therefore make it a loss leader. I would definetely support the buffets at Stations and Boyds places to return.
From Switzerland
Boris
First..
Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun s machines are just as random and fair as Las Vegas.
As far as playing 9/7 DB..I don’t play the game there are better games at these casinos. However, the majority of VP players out there are not pros and can’t get positive EVs based upon the inventory and promos at their local casinos. However, like me they play for enjoyment and should realize that there will be a lot of losing sessions.
I’m puzzled as to why the OP played DB at Mohegan which doesn’t give any comp points for this game while Foxwoods does ( approx. .25 % )
How can anyone who reads Bob’s column actually send him this question?
Bob, you must have the patience of a Saint to answer this same question over and over again.
Each hand of video poker on fair machines is a random choice out of the 52 possible cards. There are no hot, cold, due, etc machines. The cards are chosen at random.