Then There Were 7 …

Take a long look at that rendering for Bally’s Bronx. You might never see it again. The project got smothered in the crib by the New York City‘s governing council, which voted 26-9 to deny it rezoning from Bally Links. Without that, the $4 billion pipe dream is as good as gone. Gone too are Donald Trump‘s increasingly faint hopes for $115 million “gaming event fee” should Bally’s grab the brass ring. But, contrary to Bally’s Chairman Soo Kim‘s borderline paranoia, the fatal blow was struck from the right, by Councilwoman Kristy Marmorato (R). She was against the project and brought 25 other votes with her. Hard cheese, Soo. The Bally’s boss was thunderstruck by the outcome and has said virtually nothing since that City Council shockeroo.

Bally’s involuntary exit, which left Kim virtually speechless, means there are now only seven contenders for three casino licenses in the Big Apple. Natural selection is doing quite a job of winnowing out the field. If the great mentioners appointed by Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and other high Empire State pajandrums decide that Resorts World New York City and MGM Empire City are maxed out in terms of revenue potential, they might find a loophole to keep those two in business but choose three more casinos. However, the potential for backlash at the prospect of five mega-casinos in NYC makes us skeptical … for now.

Let’s review the remaining players. Quotations, unless otherwise indicated, are from City & State New York‘s expert analysis. Shall we play?

MGM Empire City. It’s already in operation, it’s lucrative and could relatively quickly be upgraded to a Class III facility. Why does that matter? Because the sooner it goes Class III, the sooner that the revenue derived from full-fledged gambling will be flowing into state tax coffers. That’s the real bottom line here and the main reason why MGM Resorts International and Genting Group continue to be prohibitive favorites for permanence. MGM is promising $2.2 billion in upgrades, including a vast sports book and a 5,000-seat concert venue. Opposition is relatively scant, too, although flooding and traffic worries have been raised. MGM also recently pleaded out to money laundering, which could complicate things … but that’s going around, like a nasty virus.

Resorts World New York City. Genting has promised to convert Aqueduct Racetrack to parkland (a critical incentive), build a Crockfords-branded hotel and invest in 30 restaurants, plus a 7,000-seat arena. Also on the wish list are 3,000 units of affordable housing for employees. The designs, if realized, will look much better than what’s there already. Two million square feet of gambling would be added to the United States‘ most lucrative non-Las Vegas casino. There’s even less opposition to Genting than there is to MGM, practically none, which is a massive point in Resorts World’s favor. So too is the pledge of $1 billion to the state, up front. Ditto speedy conversion to Class III status. “Since its opening, Resorts World has invested $1.1 billion in Southeast Queens and contributed $4.5 billion in the state’s public education fund.” Then again, there’s that money laundering thing, Resorts World Las Vegas having been slapped with a puny fine in Nevada for flouting the law and not being sorry about it.

The Avenir. With Wynn Resorts out of the picture, this is midtown Manhattan‘s shot at a pleasure palace. Its design is probably the most striking, including a skybridge and eight (count ’em) stories of casino. Developer Silverstein Properties has tremendous cachet for its post-9/11 reconstructions, done with impressive alacrity, and has partnered with both Rush Street Gaming AND Greenwood Racing (parent of Parx Casino). Do two mid-sized gambling companies add up to one major one? We’ll see. Being near the Port Authority Bus Terminal could siphon off a lot of customers who might otherwise head to Atlantic City and conventioneers would like The Avenir’s Javits Center proximity. But … “compared to other potential locations in Manhattan, state officials could prefer a more highly trafficked area that might have a higher revenue potential.” Also, are a thousand hotel rooms and a 1,000-seat concert hall (small for anything except classical music) going to be enough? Probably not.

Freedom Plaza. If there’s a dark horse, this is it. Developer Soloviev Group has no casino experience but it has powerhouse Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment in its corner. The latter is willing to sacrifice a tranche of commuter business at Mohegan Sun in return for a juicy bite of the Big Apple. The site is currently derelict land where a power plant once stood, so Freedom Plaza would be a huge improvement on the status quo. It’s also near the United Nations, so tourists and international travelers are likely targets for its potential allure. Soloviev’s plans call for a mishmash of affordable housing, a “freedom” museum (freedom soon might be something you only see in a museum … but we digress), 1,200 hotel rooms, a park and a casino, all fit into less than seven acres. Out went a Ferris wheel, in went more housing units, a sensitive issue in NYC. Affluent residents of the Turtle Bay and Murray Hill neighborhoods are against it, as is influential state Sen. Liz Krueger (D). But Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) is in its corner, as are trade unions. “The site’s design to install the casino underground while adding a park above it could intrigue the siting board.” Call this a definite maybe.

Caesars Palace Times Square. A palace in name only, this eight-floor casino would be stacked atop the legendary Winter Garden Theater (erstwhile home to Stephen Sondheim‘s Follies and Pacific Overtures, longtime venue of Cats) like an oversized toupée. Also to be added are 950 hotel rooms. Backers include Mr. Beyoncé himself, Jay-Z Carter, who has been pressing the flesh in Albany. He would certainly bring a rare minority presence to a pallid casino industry. However … most of the theatre community is up in arms against this plan. But the site is newly unencumbered by debt and 17 unions are in Caesars’ corner. “This project is also much smaller than other proposals and in a location that could generate far more revenue,” although Caesars Palace Times Square’s smaller budget (fewer construction dollars) could ultimately work against it. Also, “Some civic leaders worry that the presence of a casino could take Times Square back to the bad old days. Teachers are opposed because the casino would be within walking distance of six schools.” This sounds too hot to handle and not in a good, Jayne Mansfield-starring sort of way.

Metropolitan Park. We thought this a lock, but now … ? The NIMBYs will like that it’s not in Manhattan but Queens residents are heavily divided about a casino across a park from Citi Field, home of the long-suffering New York Mets. Team owner Steve Cohen is the driving force behind this project, with a major assist from Hard Rock International. He may, however, have to rethink that partnership, as Hard Rock is in the throes of its own money-laundering scandal. Cohen’s jobs promises are the most extravagant of anybody’s, and he’s promising a hotel (2,300 rooms), concert venue and sporting fields. Plus all-important parkland. An unusual mix, to be sure. The New York State Lege has already ‘alienated’ the acreage to be repurposed from parking to parks, a helpful upward shove. The list of prominent supporters is staggering and “Willets Point is getting New York City Football Club’s new soccer stadium in 2027.” Cohen is tight with Hochul. But is he still the man to beat? That’s the $8 billion question.

The Coney. Of all the proposals, this is by far the tackiest. Some would say that befits its Coney Island surroundings. But who wants to go out to Rockaway in winter, even to gamble? Then again, this would be the remotest of the casinos, which should greatly appeal to the NIMBY element (icky-poo casinos, you know). The backers are from the Island of Misfit Toys: They include Thor Equities, the Chickasaw Nation and Saratoga Casino Holdings, among others. The budget ($3 billion) would be one of the smaller ones. And community opposition has been acrimonious. Still, “The casino proposal would continue the decadelong revitalization of Coney Island and help it become more of a year-round destination. It’s also at the terminus of four subway lines and could host a ferry stop.” Even so, we view this oddball project as a long shot … an extreme long shot. If it wins, all that will be missing will be Al Michaels exclaiming, “Do you believe in miracles?“

As far all these projects are concerned, state officials might want to take a hard gander at the revenue projections, some of which verge on the preposterous. They’re flirting heavily with the dreaded Penn National Effect, wherein Big Gaming’s roseate revenue guarantees never match up to paler reality. Freedom Plaza? $2.2 billion in Year One alone, escalating to $4.2 billion in a decade. Metropolitan Park? $3.9 billion by the end of Year Three. Almost $1.4 billion in the first year of The Coney—more than Wynncore did last year. Freedom Plaza is predicting it will make as much in Year 10 as Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa … combined, last year. Caesars Palace Times Square is predicting it will average $2.3 billion a year for the first 10 years. The Avenir forecasts $2.5 billion just in Year One … while Spectrum Group thinks $2.1 billion from a Manhattan location is the ceiling. $2 billion for anybody on the fringes would, by Spectrum’s calculations, be out of the question. So much for Resorts World New York City‘s predicted $2.2 billion. The lowball estimator, MGM Empire City ($1.4 billion) sounds downright realistic. So did, at a mere $1 billion, Bally’s Bronx. Sorry about that, Soo. But thanks for playing.