“Avenir” means “the future” in French. For The Avenir casino project in New York City, the future ended two days ago. It’s done, finito, cooked, canned, vetoed. The sleek and stylish proposal, allied with Greenwood Racing (parent of mega-successful Parx Casino) got skunked 4-2 by its Community Advisory Committee. That means the Gotham casino derby is down to six contenders, who may shortly be four.
The only “aye” votes for The Avenir came from surrogates of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Mayor Eric Adams (I). The latter may have pouted about the outcome, but the CAC was doing what it was appointed to do: vetting casino applicants. There are two possibilities. One is that Adams and Hochul wanted both Caesars Palace New York and nearby The Avenir approved, with an eye toward creating a gaming district in midtown Manhattan. It’s an economically sound concept. But we suspect that Door #2 is the likelier one: Hochul and Adams will probably instruct their minions to vote for all eight applications, passing the buck to Albany in a grand example of leading from the rear. They’re not being civic leaders but invertebrates.
Manhattan has so much going for it, we’re not sure if it needs a casino and so crowded we’re not confident it could handle one. Traffic concerns have been a sticking point so far. At the rate by which casino proposals are being shot down, it also may not get one. At least Freedom Plaza is being very proactive about facilitating mass-transit access to its would-be casino, while Steve Cohen is talking about upgrading transportation options around wannabe Metropolitan Park, adjacent to Citi Field, home of the not-so-amazin’ New York Mets. Out in the boonies, The Coney‘s response is … to build more surface parking. Score one against them.
Where do we go from here? Despite their money-laundering misdeeds, both Genting Group and MGM Resorts International are looking like shoo-ins. There hasn’t been a peep of protest about expanding and upgrading Resorts World New York City, and MGM Empire City has had more community boosters than detractors. Plus they could go Class III faster than anybody else, which is going to look mighty appealing to tax-hungry New York State. Opposition to Hard Rock International-powered Metropolitan Park has been considerably more vocal, in spite of Cohen’s promise to spend $8 billion on it. Bally’s New York will probably clear the CAC hurdle, even allowing for Bally’s Corp.‘s relative inexperience in megaresorts and its troubles in Chicago. We don’t see a clear path for The Coney, given the dearth of jobs going to Coney Island residents (whose unemployment rate is 17%) and the intensity of their opposition.
Turning to Freedom Plaza, its chances are seeming a bit shaky. “There’s a lot more opposition than support in the community,” said Assemblyman Harvey Epstein (D). New York Post sources say “the proposal has faced stiff neighborhood opposition and will likely be rejected when it comes up for a vote by the gaming commission’s community advisory committee on Monday.” It sounds as though Freedom Plaza’s something-for-everybody approach is not pleasing much of anybody. Backer Mohegan Sun‘s involvement seemed like a redundancy, given that its Uncasville megaresort draws so heavily from Gotham already. As for the promised museum to freedom and democracy, events of this week have rendered that a black joke.
Our new ranking, in order of probability: Resorts World NYC; MGM Empire City; Metropolitan Park; Bally’s New York; Freedom Plaza; The Coney. In other words, not much has changed.
It’s the money, stupid. Be careful what you wish for, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, because you’ll probably get it. First it was sports betting. Silver wanted it. Now he’s an unhappy camper about it. Then he dreamed of a “unified national system” regulating sports betting. That was naive, unrealistic and dangerous. What Silver is inviting is for the federal government to bigfoot gambling regulation, something it has yet to do (and which our enemies on the Religious Right would love). The Supreme Court did the right thing by making the offering of sports betting the remit of individual states. Thus, states that don’t want it can opt out and those that do can set their own rules. Speaking of which, Silver blames the current spate of NBA betting scandals on diverse, state-level rules, not on the cupidity of avaricious players, who are too often seduced by the promise of easy money, no matter how well-remunerated they already are.
Meanwhile, Silver is blind to the dangers posed by prediction markets, which are running up the back of major leagues and OSB providers alike. Never mind that sports betting is still illegal in 11 states, the likes of Kalshi are openly hawking “odds” and “bets” in them. This invites the blundering, federal-level entry of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, unschooled in sports betting, understaffed and currently headless, with zero commissioners instead of the five mandated by statute. The Trump administration didn’t campaign on a promise of nationwide online gambling but that is what it has (unwittingly?) delivered in the process of laying waste to vast swaths of the federal government. Silver should quit worrying about state rules and start fretting about those gambling entities who follow no rules except their own.
Finally … What would Bill Miller say? The CEO of the American Gaming Association likes to (rightly) tout the job-creation and tax-base benefits of having casinos. But what about when the casino needs a taxpayer bailout? Strange as it sounds, that is what’s playing out in a remote corner of New York State. You may recall that Genting Group coveted a Catskills casino and way overspent on it, to the tune of $1.2 billion. Although Genting’s financials are closely guarded, it’s been no secret that Resorts World Catskills has been a money pit.
Enter Sullivan County, bearing $585 million (!) for what it thinks is a fire sale. It would buy everything owned by Resorts World Catskills except the casino proper. In other words, 100% but the one profit center that’s probably turning a profit. It’s a disingenuous move that domesticates the liabilities whilst outsourcing the financial benefits. The county’s naive hope is that this “will lead to increased investment at one of Sullivan’s biggest tourist draws.” But Genting gave the plot away when it said the bailout “will allow us to continue our work delivering for New Yorkers from Sullivan County to Southeast Queens,” with Queens being the operative part of that statement. Genting doesn’t want to do anything that would queer the pitch for Resorts World New York City, let alone draw untoward attention to its failings upstate.
According to Spectrum Local News, not only was Resorts World Catskills the only casino to post declining revenues across the past half-dozen years, it was also the costliest to erect. It looks and costs like a Las Vegas-caliber resort marooned out in the sticks. Also, across the border in Pennsylvania, tribal Wind Creek Bethlehem is doing at least six times the business of Resorts World. Something is definitely amiss with Genting’s formula. It pains us to say “walk away,” but that’s what the county should do. In a free market, businesses should stand or fall on their own. Subsidizing Resorts World is just asking for fiscal heartache.