Author: Bob Dancer

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A New Hip — After Six Weeks

Bob Dancer

I had my right hip replaced with a titanium one on December 28. I’m writing this after almost six weeks of recovery. It hasn’t been as smooth or as fast as I hoped. And it disrupted my life far more than I expected!

Two-and-a-half weeks after the surgery, there was a juicy out-of-town promotion I really wanted to go to. Bonnie and my doctor were strongly opposed to me going. Finally, I acceded and stayed home — probably the right move. But giving up on a good promotion really goes against the grain.

I’ve shared before that I belong to the Las Vegas Improvisational Players (www.lvimprov.com) and perform in a showcase once a month. The leader of the group wanted me to sit out the January performance — figuring I was still a bit wobbly. Improv does include some physicality, and you never know what’s coming because the suggestions come from the audience. He figured it would be easy to accidentally exceed my physical limitations in the heat of the moment. While I figured that I could still perform, I yielded reasonably gracefully. But I’ll be in the February 17 showcase, and all the future ones when I’m in town. For the next few months, though, I’ll be cast in skits with little potential for physicality. 

Three-times-a-week physical therapy (PT) works well if you apply yourself. They tell you to do 30 repetitions and then let you decide how many to really do — and whether you lift your leg all the way or halfway. Basically, their business plan is to collect $100 a session (or whatever the amount is) from the insurance companies. If you take six months instead of three months to recover, so much the better as far as the PT company is concerned.

PT also works better if you do the exercises at home between sessions. I knew this but was not as diligent as I could have been. I probably averaged two sessions a week at home (rather than the recommended four) on the days I didn’t go to PT.

The exercises, though, were only geared for my right leg — because that’s the side where my new hip is. I decided early on, though, to do the exercises on both sides. Even though the exercises were way too easy for my left leg, I felt it made no sense to only exercise one side of my body. My hour-long PT session got extended by twenty minutes or so. The PT staff had to notice this, but so far haven’t said a word about this.

I was cautioned not to bend over too far too soon after the surgery, and not to cross my legs. If the hip pops out of socket, needless to say, it’s not a good thing. So, for the first four weeks or so after the operation, I needed Bonnie to help me with the compression hose they recommended and tying my shoelaces. I couldn’t bend over enough to put on pants of any sort without help. One month out, I could dress myself unassisted.

I have a player-friend who drove me to casinos periodically after about three weeks. I’d take my walker and take frequent rests. He’d drop me off at the front door of casinos and then go park the car. I wouldn’t do my full slot-scouting run at first, but each time was a little bit further.

I was told not to drive for six weeks after surgery. This is a longer period of time for the right hip than the left simply because driving in this country uses the right leg more than the left. After four weeks of using Lyft, though, there came a day when Bonnie and I had six places we needed to go to back-to-back — none of them more than three miles from the last. After one around-the-block test drive, I decided I could do it.  

For the next two days, though, my right leg and knee really ached. Whatever muscles are used in driving had deteriorated. I drove every other day for short periods of time, and about a week later could drive for an hour straight without discomfort. 

My first out-of-town casino trip came at about the four-week mark. It was tougher than I expected. The nicer rooms they assigned us were far away from the hotel elevators. Had I thought about it, I would have requested a regular room close to the elevators — but I didn’t think of it until afterwards.

I only played four hours a day, but I had to split that into two sessions. I knew about how much walking would be required at this casino — we’ve been there before — but taking that many steps turned out to be more difficult than knowing how many steps it was going to be. I was pretty wiped out when I returned home four days later. Although it was a losing trip this time, I’m pretty sure that was just normal variance and not due to my infirmity. But I can’t be sure.

As I write the first draft of this blog, I haven’t had my six-week post-operation medical visit yet. I expect I’ll be told I can now submerge into a bath (if there are handicap bars to help me get out — which there are in our home) if I want. I’m now taking an aspirin tablet twice a day to avoid blood clots. Whether that routine is changed — or whether I’ll still be told to wear compression stockings — I’ll find out. Other than not doing my exercises as much as requested, I’ve been a pretty good patient. And I’ll continue to do so.

My next casino trip is in another three weeks. I’ll take my walker with me — in case. The walking distances there will be considerably longer than the ones on my last trip. They have motorized scooters available if necessary — but I’m assuming/hoping I won’t need one. We’ll see.

When I last saw my surgeon, two weeks afterwards, he said it was normal to be thinking “Oh God! What have I done?” And to be sure, there was a little of that. He also said that after six weeks I’ll be saying, “This is the best thing that ever happened to me! I should have done it years ago!” 

Well, it’s almost six weeks, and I’m still recovering. But I’m a lot closer to being really happy I did this than I was a month ago.

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Playing With House Money

Bob Dancer

The expression that titles this blog has at least two different meanings. First, it could mean you have some sort of a cash windfall, so losing it would be less painful than if you earned the money doing hard labor. Second, it could mean that you have already exceeded expectations, so even if you don’t win in the current situation, it’s not so bad. An example of the second meaning was heard in the first round of the football playoffs between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles. It was said that nobody expected the Bucs to even make the playoffs, so they were playing with house money.

In both meanings, the word “house” refers to a casino — at least originally. 

Although the phrase is fairly common and is understood by most adults, I think it is based on an entirely false understanding of what “house money” really is. The fact that this expression is used so frequently means that most people think of “house money” incorrectly.

Let’s say there’s a casino drawing and the winner receives $50,000 in cash. Lo and behold, this time you are the lucky winner! Congratulations! 

Now, after you’ve won the drawing, does the fifty grand belong to you or the casino? I think it belongs to you. Whatever your wealth/bankroll was before the drawing, it’s now $50,000 greater. 

If you’re a multimillionaire, the extra money is nice, but doesn’t change your fiscal priorities very much. If you are struggling financially, that much money can literally be life-changing.

Of those for whom the money is life-changing, it’s prudent to think twice on what you wish to do with these funds. Seeking advice from an advisor might be a good idea. 

There are tax considerations to this win. If you want to think of this as $35,000 after taxes, it’s probably smarter than thinking of it as $50,000. It’s easy to spend however much you have in front of you, but next April 15, Uncle Sam will still be waiting with his hand out. Not preparing for that is an expensive mistake.

It may well be that a new car is highest on your list of current needs, but just because you have $50,000 in your pocket doesn’t mean you need to get a vehicle with all the bells and whistles. This $50,000 windfall is usually a one-time event. Helping yourself solve two or three financial problems is usually better than just solving one.

Calling the windfall “house money” takes away from recognizing the importance of making the correct decision. It’s your money and you only have one life. Make the most of it!

I heard a funny story recently — supposedly true. It’s not exactly in line with what this column is about — but I have some extra space so here goes:

A famous poker player won a $1,000,000 prize at a tournament. He was asked what he was going to do with the money.

“Well, I have some people I owe money to. I’ll pay them off.”

“But what about the rest?”

“They’ll just have to wait.”

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This Game Tonight

Bob Dancer

The following incident happened while a friend of mine was playing slots, but there’s enough in common to gambling at video poker that I think it’s worth discussing.

“John” was scouting a casino in Las Vegas looking for slot machines in positive conditions. There are many, many slot machines that are sometimes positive — but most of the time, on each of these machines, the house has the advantage. Most players, however, are not aware of when the game is positive or not and simply play the game, quitting whenever they feel like it. Sometimes they quit when the game is positive, and then when the next knowledgeable player comes by, that player typically sits down to play it off. 

John has “strike numbers” on perhaps 20-30 different slot machine titles. That’s nowhere near all or even most of the beatable machines, but still, it’s more than most players know.

He found a game for $25 a play that he thought might be positive. This is a much larger game than usual for slot players. Most players can’t afford to play this game, but the size of the game was not a showstopper to him. He shifted the denomination on the machine so that it showed the $10-per-play game and consulted his notes. The $10-per-play game was nowhere near a positive play at the moment, and other pros seeking games would walk right by. He wanted time to think about this situation without drawing attention to the game.

His notes said that the game was a play when a certain meter was at 15 or higher — and sure enough this meter was at 16. So, it was a play. His notes also said the game is highly volatile. He knew that on a volatile $25 game, he could easily win or lose several thousand dollars. If he played this game in this situation several dozen times, he figured he’d make a sizeable profit. But there was no way to tell at the outset whether this time would be positive or negative.

He had $3,500 on him. He figured that would cover the swings most of the time. He wouldn’t likely run out of money, but if he did there were people he could call. He didn’t like making these calls — partly because that meant others would have the right to call him when they ran out. He trusted himself to run out of money very rarely, but some of the people he called wouldn’t have the same discipline. But if he asked for help, he had to be prepared to give help to others in the future. He didn’t want to open that door.

He actually called me to ask my opinion. John and I respect each other’s knowledge and have helped each other out occasionally. I know him well, know how he handles swings, and I thought he should go for it. I wasn’t in Vegas at the time, and he was, so there was no way I could get money to him if he ended up needing some.

He was just about to start when another pro, “Peter,” approached him and asked if he were going to play the $25 game. John knew Peter vaguely. He’d seen him checking out machines but wasn’t sure how knowledgeable he was.

John said yes. He thought it was a good play and he had the bankroll to play it. Peter said he had the bankroll too, but wasn’t in the mood to risk his daily score on such a volatile play.

Peter, it seems, had been losing recently and was sort of gun shy. He didn’t trust his own judgment, so he didn’t want to play such a big game. He could likely find a sizeable number of smaller games where he could increase his bankroll by dribs and drabs rather than making a big jump one way or the other all at once.

Peter said he had a few thousand dollars on him and suggested they partner up for this one game. John thought about this. It had some positive aspects to it. It essentially guaranteed he wouldn’t run out of money. 

At the same time, John had never done business with Peter before. Was he trustworthy? Who was going to eat the W-2G if there was one? Peter was friendly now, but what if Peter was the one playing when the bonus round hit and denied making a deal? So John passed and played it by himself. Peter wished him luck and left.

As it happened, the bonus round went off rather quickly and John ended up making $900. This was a nice result, but it certainly didn’t have to be that way.

I want to look at Peter’s reaction to this. Peter had actually seen the game first and passed on it. He had the financial bankroll — but not the emotional bankroll — to play the game. So, I believe he was right to pass.

Everybody has his own emotional bankroll. Respecting your bankroll parameters, both financial and emotional, is critical to long term success at gambling. I also think that Peter suggesting they be partners was a move that made sense for him. This would lower the swings and lower the risk. So now it might have been within his comfort zone. 

It couldn’t have been too much of a surprise for Peter that John turned down his offer to partner up. That’s probably the usual result. But you don’t know unless you try. 

All in all, the situation was well played by both men.

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A Variety of Games

Bob Dancer

Today I play different video poker games at different casinos — usually the highest-returning games offered in denominations that interest me. It wasn’t always this way.

In the “good old days,” which for me were the mid-1990s, the best $5 and higher games almost everywhere were 9/6 Jacks or Better. With slot clubs and promotions, this game could be played with an advantage at a dozen or so different casinos in Las Vegas. I learned the game 100% accurately and it was just a matter of putting in the hours, assuming you had the bankroll to survive the swings. Borrowing the title of a Josh Axelrad book that was based on playing blackjack, this was a matter of “Repeat Until Rich.” And I did. And many others did. 

There was some strategy choosing at which casino to play, and when. Casinos offered point multipliers sometimes, or had a promotion where they invited a lot of players in and gave away lots of money over a weekend — usually by a slot tournament or by a drawing — and if you played then, sometimes you got a piece of that money. Not every time, of course, but when you’re already playing a game where you have the edge, these extra “pieces of money” add up. In a typical year, I’d play in maybe 75 events (meaning some weekends I played at two different events), and collected the extra money at 10 or 15 of them. 

Back then, mailer money in Las Vegas was rare, whereas today it’s common. Today, it’s rare when I play 9/6 Jacks or Better. At the five casinos I play the most (limiting the discussion to video poker and not including playing slots, which I also play), I play five different games. Actually, more than five, because at two of the casinos, there is more than one acceptable game. I “rotate” which game I play depending on the monthly promotion.

And the games I play vary in denomination. At one casino, I play dollar single line, meaning $5 per hand. I’d prefer to play larger, but the higher-stakes games at that casino aren’t good enough. And the dollar game, plus slot club, mailers, and promotions, provides me with enough benefits that I keep playing there. 

I’m no longer playing just in Las Vegas. No longer just in Nevada. Although I’ve mentioned some other places I play periodically, and there are some I haven’t mentioned, it’s still a surprise to me that a resident of Las Vegas can find better video poker out of town. Don’t expect me to announce exactly which game I play at which casino. At some of the places I play, the good situation would not last if lots of players were playing it.

Playing a number of games keeps me sharper than playing just one game. Plus, 9/6 Jacks or Better is arguably the simplest game to play well. Every additional game I learn has special one-of-a-kind sorts of situations that I have to master. And when I do master them, sometimes they provide inspiration.

There is also the issue of keeping the games straight in my mind. The combinations that are the toughest to keep straight are the 3-card straight flushes versus two high cards, suited or not. Every game has its own rules and going back and forth between games, it’s easy to get mixed up. It’s also easier for a senior citizen to get mixed up than it was when I was still “in my prime.” 

So I find myself practicing more today than I did before. Just before I go and play a game I haven’t played in a month or more, I’ll spend a few hours mastering it again. I can get so I can play a game 100% perfectly, but it takes regular review to stay at that level for a number of different games simultaneously.

And it is no longer, “Repeat Until Rich.” The available edges are smaller today. Casinos continually become savvier and savvier in what games and promotions they can profitably offer. Casino mistakes are still out there, and I still try to exploit them when I find them, but they aren’t as numerous, as large, and don’t last as long as they did before.

There are still some players who do well, of course, and I am one of those some of the time.  But I believe the number of players who regularly exceeded $100,000 annual profit was higher twenty or twenty-five years ago than it is today. 

Still, I’m out there trying. It’s what I do. It’s what I enjoy. It’s part of what keeps me as intellectually sharp as I can be at my age. Yes, I’ve shifted to also playing slots as well as video poker, but video poker remains my mainstay. And probably will so long as I can find good games — even if those games aren’t the same ones I’m playing today.

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How Should You Cash the Extra Free Play?

Bob Dancer


Let’s assume your regular casino gave you $250 in extra free play for the holidays. You normally get $50 a week, and now you have all this extra money. What should you do?

There is not a one-size-fits-all answer. It depends on your situation and your priorities. Let me go through a few examples.

Professional player. Gambles as a source of income.
In this case, the $250 in extra free play is merely an increase in bankroll. Yes, you have to play it, but it’s nowhere near enough to move you into being able to play for a higher denomination. Presumably you’re already playing on the best game for you in the casino — taking into consideration things like: return on the game, slot club, how much you need to play to keep the mailers coming, how much you need to play to reach the tier level you’ve decided is best for you, and how much to play to take advantage of the current promotion should you deem it worth playing.
At the end of your normal play, if you would have been ahead $700 without the bonus free play, now you’re ahead $950. If you would have been behind $400, now you’re behind $150 because of the extra free play. You record your score, and move on. It’s nice to receive $250, but it’s hardly a big deal.
This is the way I would handle such a windfall — even a much larger windfall.

Wealthy recreational player. Has plenty of money to survive his normal losses.
This is a position I’ve never been in. More times than I can count, I’ve lost more than $20,000 in a day and been relatively unphased about it because I knew I was playing with an advantage. But playing a bad nickel game for fun? Never! So, my advice here is “theoretical,” rather than from experience.

I suspect this sort of person will see the $250 as “found money,” and hence able to be spent without the normal boundaries. Maybe take a 10-hand flyer on a $5, high variance, game like Triple Double Bonus. Probably it will be all lost, but there’s a chance for a $20,000 windfall. Now we’re talking!

Low-stakes player, trying to make intelligent decisions.
The problem was set up so that the player normally received $50 a week in free play. This limits how “low stakes” the player can actually be, because you have to play quite a bit, or quite badly, to be eligible for $50 a week in free play.
Still, with an extra $250 in free play, this player will typically take an intermediate approach between the first two. Maybe take a mini-flyer on a game one denomination higher.

There are an infinite number of ways to handle this “problem,” but we all agree that it’s a nice problem to have and wish we could have it more often.

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Hip Hip Hooray!

Bob Dancer

Any of you who have seen me over the past three months or so have seen me with some sort of apparatus to help me walk. Sometimes a walker, sometimes a cane, and sometimes an electric scooter. And in an airport, I’m pushed in a wheelchair.

Finally, on December 28, I had a total right hip replacement. I’m going to write about that today because my mind is totally on my recovery and not at all on gambling topics. I hope to return to my regular sort of columns shortly.

I’m sure many of you have gone through this procedure, or been close to somebody who has, or both. I’m also sure some of you will have it in your future. Consider this column a head’s up! 

The operation is almost always done as an outpatient these days. I showed up at a surgery center at seven in the morning and was back home by two in the afternoon. The time one spends there varies, and at least occasionally they decide to keep the patient overnight. The main determining factor seems to be whether or not the patient, using a walker, can walk up and down the hall. If the answer is yes, that patient goes home — unless there’s an unusual infection of some kind.

There were a lot of instructions about not eating or drinking anything for 12 hours prior to surgery, not taking certain medications for a week beforehand, no alcohol, and there were some other restrictions as well. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday morning I needed to clean with an antibacterial soap they provided. I needed clean bedding and clean clothes the day of the procedure. There were six different medications I needed to have on hand beforehand so I could take them afterwards.

They gave me pre-operation exercises, post-operation exercises, and a prescription for Physical Therapy which I’ll go to three times a week for six weeks. None of this struck me as unusual, but learning I’d be restricted from driving or flying for six weeks was a big surprise. Had it been my left hip, I would have been allowed to drive earlier. 

After seeing my orthopedic doctor a number of times, I had two pre-op appointments. Once with a physician’s assistant at the doctor’s office and one with a senior nurse at the surgery center. There was a lot of overlap in what they covered, but they were not identical. It was here I learned that I would receive a spinal block as an anesthetic.

This made me uncomfortable. Something about a needle in the spine. I was told this wasn’t mandatory, but most physicians doing hips and knees believe this is the best way to do it. Among other things it reduces the chances for blood clots compared to other methods for anesthesia. 

I went home and looked up spinal blocks on the Internet. I came away concluding that it was the best way to go, even though it still made me uneasy.

Per instructions, I arrived at the surgery center two hours before the surgery was scheduled. I was asked the same questions over and over again about how recently I had taken such and such, had my leg shaved and sterilized, and had a port placed into a vein on my right hand, which would be used to later administer various drugs. The surgery center was basically set up like an ER room, except all of the patients were in there for scheduled procedures.

I met the anesthetist, and as had happened in the pre-op meeting, he again gave me the option of what kind of medicine to use, reminding me that my surgeon prefers the spinal block, and I went with my surgeon’s advice.

I was wheeled into the operating room. I was placed into position, which was sitting up, hunchbacked, and holding onto a pillow across my chest, and my lower back was pre-numbed before the spinal block injection. I was told I would feel a small prick — which I did — and then the doctor said, “Shit! Missed it!”

I’m not sure what exactly had happened. I had visions of me being permanently paralyzed, but in the meantime all I could do was to sit still and hope for the best. Shortly thereafter, the doctor exclaimed, “Perfect!” and I don’t remember anything else until I woke up in the recovery room. 

Apparently, every patient wakes up from a spinal block at a different pace. Every ten minutes a nurse would come in and scratch my leg in various places and ask if I could feel it. Her hand would go to the bottom of my right foot, and she’d ask me to press against her hand. I couldn’t do any of this when she first started asking, but after about 90 minutes, I could do it all. Now it was time to see if I could walk. My ride home was there for about the last hour of this leg scratching.

It took three people to accompany me on the walk. Me in the middle with my walker, a nurse on either side of me ready to catch me if I fell, and a nurse’s aide walking behind me with a wheelchair which was ready for me if I fell back or needed to sit down. I walked to the end of the hall and back, stopped and tried unsuccessfully to urinate, and then was led back to my bed for checkout. 

The home recovery is another situation altogether. Before this operation came along, we already had safety bars in our bathrooms and my shower has a bench in it. These were items suggested in pre-op, but we had already had them installed because we were senior citizens. We don’t know what medical situations might be in our future, but there’s a good chance there will be some and these things will be useful.

The recovery is going to take some time. I could not have done it without assistance. Fortunately, my wife, Bonnie, was a nurse for 40 years and she understands basic nursing. Using Depends and having a few “accidents” along the way didn’t freak her out. Still, she is now 80 years old and not as strong as she used to be. So, we had five friends “on call” if needed. Which so far, they haven’t been, but I am writing this on Monday, four days after the procedure. I start physical therapy tomorrow and I haven’t left the house yet other than for two relatively short walks to the corner and back.

They sent me home with a number of apparatuses. The walker itself was aluminum and had only two wheels. This is an old-fashioned model, but apparently, they are more stable than the four-wheel varieties. I received compression hose, which I was to wear during daylight hours. I received electric stimulators which I strap onto my legs to keep the muscles active. I received a large, foam, hip abductor pillow to keep my legs in position while I slept. Other than the walker, none of these things would have been manageable by myself without a caregiver.

I’m four days in. I’m able to walk slowly with the walker. I can walk, bathroom functions are normal, I’m not needing pain pills, and there is no unusual bleeding or seepage. It’s getting better every day. Tomorrow a buddy is going to take me to casinos for the first time. Probably not the best idea, but he suggested it and I said yes.

I’m planning on writing a more-typical column next week. Hopefully at least some of you found this interesting. Maybe later I’ll do an “after one month of recovery” column. I’m sure stuff will occur that I can’t foresee now.

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A Lesson from Backgammon

Bob Dancer

Many of you know I played backgammon professionally for a long time — actually from 1974 to 1993. I became pretty good, but there were many players who played better. By the time I moved to Las Vegas in 1993, I had decided to give up the game simply because as hard as I tried, I could never make a living playing it. So, I gave the game up for more than 20 years.

Over the years on the podcast, we had several backgammon players: Bill Robertie, Kent Goulding, Bob Wachtel, Jim Pasko, and Kit Woolsey. If I left anyone out, I apologize. Usually, these experts would come on to talk about books they had recently written, and would send review copies of their books to Richard and me prior to the show.

I read these books and started to feel the old juices flowing again. After reading the 10 or so books I had been forwarded, I was a considerably better player than I had been a few years ago. 

I learned about XG, which is a downloadable app and is the latest and greatest backgammon computer program. Other programs are available, and some players prefer different ones. But XG is the one I heard was best and that’s the one I got. 

For any position, it ranks all the plays in order and tells you how much they are worth. Positions vary in the number of possible plays — from zero to several dozen. Practicing on the program for maybe 25 hours, I became a better player than I was when I quit the game. It was easy for me to see that continued practice would improve my game even more.

But this program is available to all players, and some players have been using computerized help for decades. I’m now in my late 70s and I have no illusions that I’m as sharp mentally as I was when I was younger. Having a good memory is a key part of being a good player, and my memory isn’t what it used to be. 

I might enter an intermediate-level tournament occasionally, primarily for entertainment purposes, but becoming a professional backgammon player isn’t in my future.

When I play against XG, I do win some games, of course. Each backgammon game contains both luck and skill components. But the program keeps track of my EV as we continue to play. Since the computer plays perfectly, I can never keep up. The difference between my score and the computer’s score inevitably keeps growing. The only way I can “catch up” is to reset the scores to zero.

I believe this also happens in video poker — only we can’t see it. Every mistake adds up. I know 9/6 Jacks or Better perfectly and the game returns 99.54%. But sometimes I make mistakes due to playing too fast, mis-keying, being distracted by something, having a senior moment, or maybe a sticky button. Each one of those mistakes costs me EV. 

You don’t spend EV directly, of course. You either win this session or you lose. But the mistakes add up. They are there for everybody. Practicing on a computer is useful, but it’s not the same as playing in a casino. The sources for errors in a casino are much more numerous than they are when you practice at home.

I’m not sure if I “learned” this lesson while practicing backgammon. Probably I already believed it and what I experienced with the backgammon program just reinforced what I already thought was true.

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Learning it All

Bob Dancer

I was paid to help somebody learn the strategy for 9/5 Triple Bonus Poker Plus. “Mary” was a person who wanted to learn the minimum and take the strategy with her. Whenever Mary wasn’t sure of how to play a hand, she’d look it up on the strategy sheet.

I suggested this wasn’t such a good way to go about learning this game. There were enough unique hands in this game that you’d never know if it was an unusual play unless you knew the whole strategy. But Mary reminded me that she was paying me by the hour and the customer was always right, so we were going to do it her way.

Today’s lesson dealt with hands starting with an A of one suit and a suited JT of another. Mary wanted to concentrate on just those hands where the final answer was A or JT, but I informed her there were a lot of other possibilities. She allowed me to go over them.

“You hold all trips, which can only be aces, jacks, or tens, given that each hand we’re talking about starts with AJT and there are always exactly five cards in each hand.

“We hold 4-card straight flushes, namely KJT9, QJT9, and QJT8. Whether we hold 3-card straight flushes, KJT and QJT, depends on whether there is another king, queen, or jack in the hand.”

At this point, Mary stopped me and said she thought the lesson was just about A and a suited JT, not all this stuff about royal flush draws and straight flush draws, not to mention 3-of-a-kinds and I seem to be getting into high pairs.

“I am and it is,” I assured her, “but every one of these hands includes AJT. If you don’t want to look at every line of the strategy and use a top-down approach, these are all hands that can arise starting from AJT. Each of the high pairs, AA, KK, QQ, and JJ have different things to be concerned about, and low pairs are not treated all the same either. We haven’t even gotten into most 4-card consecutive straights and 4-card inside straights, nor have we discussed most 3-card straight flushes, which come in four different flavors, each of which is treated differently strategically. You probably should be taking notes. We’re less than halfway through and there are still some tricky hands ahead.”

Mary looked uncertain, not sure she was ready for this. If she pulled the plug on this lesson, so be it. I needed to know all of this because I played the game myself.

“Let’s look at pairs, remembering that we’ve discussed trips, so they are off the table. A pair of aces is better than any other possibility, as are a pair of kings. For a pair of queens, it matters if one is suited with the JT. If so, we’ve already discussed the 3-card straight flushes. If both queens are unsuited with the JT, the pair is better than anything else not discussed so far.

“For a pair of jacks, we now have the possibility of two pair — jacks and tens. This is the only two pair combination we hold with hands included with AJT. Pairs of nines and tens are lower in value than JT9. 

“Now let’s look at the 3-card straight flushes. Six of these include an A and two low cards. These are simple to play. Hold the three cards.

“JT9 is more valuable than any two suited high cards and any 4-card straight in the hand except QJT9.

“JT8 is more valuable than any two suited high cards and any 4-card straight in the hand except JT98. It is lower in value than every pair.

“JT7 is less valuable than two suited high cards and 4-card inside straights with three high cards (i.e., AKJT and AQJT).

“If you have a K in the hand suited with the A, hold AK unless there is a flush penalty to the AK, in which case you hold AKJT. If you have an unsuited K in the hand, hold AKJT.

“A Q in the hand is played identically to a K, with the exception that QJT9 is greater than either AQ or AQJT.

“There are three other hands starting from AJT where you hold neither A nor only JT. From AJT98, the correct play is JT98 and those hands with a 4-card flush (including JT), hold the 4-card flush. From AJT and any low pair, hold the low pair.

“Okay. We’re now ready to discuss the hands you wanted to look at first: AJT with none of the above items in the hand. But as you can see, there are a LOT of other possibilities before we get to this point.

“With AJT without any of the cases already described, first look at penalties to JT. If there is a 9, 8, or flush penalty to JT in the remaining cards, you hold the A by itself, no matter what penalties the ace has.

“If there is a 7 in the hand, hold the A unless there are two flush penalties to the A. In this case, a straight flush penalty to the case counts as a flush penalty.

“If the JT is totally unpenalized, hold the JT if the A has one or more flush or straight flush penalty.

“That’s it. That’s the entire strategy for these hands.”

“So, I’m ready to play now?” Mary asked me.

“Not really. AJT is probably the trickiest combination in this game, but an unsuited AQJ is played differently in this game than any others. Plus, the 100-for-1 return for straight flushes, rather than the more typical 50-for-1 return causes quite a few unusual plays. We can go over those later if you like. I think you’ve had enough for today.” “Finally, something we agree on.”

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Not a Smart Promotion

Bob Dancer

In Nevada, there are a large number of bars/pubs with restricted gaming licenses that permit them to have up to 15 machines. I haven’t counted these pubs, but I believe there are more than 100 of these in Clark County alone, a large chunk of land in the southern part of the state, which includes the two most populous cities — Las Vegas and Henderson.

In 2022 and 2023, a number of these pubs had a promotion where if you bring in a W-2G from any casino, the pub would give you up to 10% of that, usually up to $500. Although each pub had slightly different rules, if you hit a $4,000 jackpot at South Point, for example, you could take that W-2G to places that would give you $100 in free play today, and tomorrow would give you an additional $300.

You had to bring in the W-2G within 24 or 48 hours, sometimes loosely defined. Some of these pubs limited this to once a week. Some once a day. When they found out how slammed they were getting, some limited the promotion to only jackpots earned in to pubs, which for me was no problem because I played at Dotty’s. Sometimes you could cash the same jackpot at two or more pubs.

I’m not sure what the bar managers were thinking. Perhaps it was some version of, “These players will have $4,000 in their hands, and if we can just get them in the door, perhaps they’ll leave a good part of this here.” That must have happened some of the time, of course, but most of the time this was a losing promotion for the house.

Since I play at Dotty’s where you get rewarded for W-2Gs, I can generate as many jackpots as I like. It’s already a positive play at Dotty’s to play $10 9/6 Jacks or Better where I get a W-2G every 400 hands or so. Extra money for a promotion that was already positive is a good thing. My problem was: How do I milk these promotions? I know they’ll eventually stop the promotion or kick me out, because I’m definitely not the kind of customer they are trying to attract. 

When a bar would let you cash a W-2G once a week, I’d limit myself to once every other week. When a bar would let you cash the W-2Gs once a day, I’d never cash more than two in a week, and then I’d take at least a week off. I’d rotate the times I’d show up to all three shifts, so bartenders didn’t know how often I was cashing these. If the bar had several outlets around town, I’d vary where I’d go to pick up the money. 

Usually, the best game was 6-5 Bonus Poker, a horrendous game worth less than 97%. Whenever I came in, I’d play about an hour at quarters. That meant maybe $1,000 through the machines, which cost me $30 in EV. There were slot clubs and bonuses such as wheel spins for certain 4-of-a-kinds, reducing my expected loss to perhaps $10 — which meant a profit of at least $90 because the casino started me with at least $100.

Sometimes I’d come into each place and play for an hour or so without cashing any W-2G. I wanted my record to show that I was a “regular player,” not one who would just show up to cash a W-2G. 

In the earlier example, when I brought in a $4,000 W-2G and received $100 today and $300 put on my card tomorrow, I downloaded the free play as soon as I could. There was no doubt that eventually I was going to be removed from the promotions, and when that did happen, any unclaimed free play might well be forfeited.

I tipped the bartenders at least $5 or $10 each time. I knew the managers would kick me out eventually, but I didn’t want the bartenders suggesting that I be eliminated.

Eventually all of these promotions ended – at least for me. I’m actually surprised they lasted as long as they did, at as many different places as there were. I guess it was a copycat effect where, “That casino is doing it and seems to be getting more business. Maybe we should too!”

I ended up more than $10,000 ahead over all of these properties. Not a lot, and it required driving around some, but there was basically no downside. Yes, I could lose more than $100 in a specific day collecting the money, but over time it was guaranteed I would come out ahead. 

And when establishments are giving away non-trivial amounts of free money, I’m the kind of guy who takes it. And if I learn about another bar with this promotion, count me in!

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Taking What the Casinos Give You

Bob Dancer

Casinos are in the business of making money. In theory, casinos offer games of chance where the odds are in their favor and invite players in to play games that are rigged against them.

Under this theory, there would be no such thing as an advantage gambler. But the theory is greatly simplified — primarily in two areas.

First, some of the games offered are games of skill. You’ve heard of poker, blackjack, and sports betting. There are many more. And skillful players will do better than players without the requisite skill.

Second, casinos make mistakes — of many different types. Many times these mistakes lead to opportunities for players. Today I want to look at types of exploitable mistakes that I’ve discovered over the past 30 years. Many times, I’ve taken advantage of them. Sometimes I passed intentionally. Sometimes I heard about it afterwards. Sometimes I heard about it in plenty of time but didn’t recognize it as the profit-making opportunity it was.

This list is nowhere near exhaustive. Most of these happened in Las Vegas, but I’m sure they happened elsewhere as well.

  1. Game manufacturer providing incorrect information. The example that comes to mind here is Pick’Em Poker. This was a game that was worth 99.95%, but Bally Systems, the creator of the game, published that it was worth 98.8%. The game was popular (99.95% games tend to be that) and casinos kept putting it in for years — thinking they still had a cushion. Eventually, Bally sold the game to IGT, who rebranded it as Pick A Pair. IGT did include the original pay schedule in their offerings, but few casinos wanted a 99.95% game on their floor.
  1. Individual machine mismarked. Texas Casino (before it was Texas Station) had one 10/7 Double Bonus (100.17%) machine what was marked 9/7 (99.11%). While the front of the machine said it would pay 45 credits for a full house, you actually got 50 credits.
  1. Machine “too loose” for the casino floor. In 1995 at the Colorado Belle in Laughlin, the loosest games were dollar 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%), with most of the games quite a bit tighter than that. Two Bally Gamemaker machines were added. These machines included a number of games — including the Bally version of 10/7 Double Bonus which paid 400 coins for a straight flush rather than 250 and was worth 100.55%. The game lasted for a few months before the casino downgraded it.
  1. There are a number of examples where employees were bribed for small benefits. Slot floor people are minimum wage employees. If they’re in charge of handing out something worth $5 to players, which I’ll call scratchers because that’s a common way to do this, players will offer to tip $1 to get another scratcher or two. The casinos keep track of cash, but the scratchers are unmonitored, and employees are instructed when to hand them out. Under these circumstances, fraud and collusion will occur. Far better to design a promotion where this can’t happen.

It’s been more than 25 years since I bribed a casino employee to give me extra scratchers or such. But at the time, I was very tight on money and “needed” the extra. Today I’m not tight on money, but millions of players are. When casinos make it easy for players and employees to cheat, they will.

  1. There are examples where prizes, which are supposed to be chosen randomly, have codes on them which the savvy players can figure out. 

One casino mailed out some “to be scratched off in front of a casino employee” cards, with daily prizes ranging from being worthless to 5x points (which could be worth thousands of dollars to the right player.) If you had a strong light, you could see the prize through the card. It could be a hassle to go back to the same casino every day — but if you know beforehand when it’s really worth it, you make trips at the correct time. In the case of midnight-to-midnight 5x points, you arrange your whole schedule around being there at midnight when it starts.

Another casino let you pull scratchers out of a bowl. You then scratched off at the booth to reveal your prize. On the back of the cards, however, was a number which told the savvy player what was on the card. A code ending in 55 might signify $5 in free play and a code of 82 might signify $100 in free play. Some booth employees realized what was going on, and held the bowl at the player’s eye level, telling the player to draw one without looking at it. Some players, of course, drew more than one, scanned them all, and apologized as they kept the best one.

  1. Point multipliers are the bread and butter of many video poker professionals. To know how good this is, you must know how much single points are worth and what the game itself is worth. 

Sometimes you see mistakes with multipliers. Like when the marketing director at Eastside Cannery decided 10x points was a good idea because that’s what a competitor offered. The competitor offered base points of 0.05% and Eastside Cannery offered base points of 0.1675% and looser games. There were people holding machines for more than twelve hours before the promotion started.

Just knowing that one casino offers 4x points on Tuesday while another one offers 2x points on the same day doesn’t tell you which is the better play. It depends both on the value of the game you’ll be playing and how much single points are worth.

  1. Theoretical on machines. Years ago, several Harrah’s properties in Las Vegas offered high denomination 9/5 Jacks or Better (98.45%) with a theoretical of more than 4%. Some players came in twice a month, playing $150,000 coin-in at an expected loss of $2,300 each time) and they received $3,500 in free play each time they did this. Plus, slot club benefits. 

I didn’t hear about this one until near its end, but I did play it for a while. Long enough to be “discovered” by one of my students who was aghast that I was playing 9/5 JoB rather than the nearby 9/6 JoB machines (which required 2½ as much coin-in for one Tier Credit and had a theoretical of 0.46%). This lady asked me several questions and I just smiled and said nothing. I’m sure she suspected I was a fraud whose actions were not the same as his words.

Video poker is a lot more complicated than just learning which games to play and how to play them.