Author: Bob Dancer

One of my students was given a nice offer at Caesars Atlantic City, based on his play at another Caesars property. He got some nice show-up money, some free hotel nights, some food, and an offer that for every so many Tier Credits (TCs) he earned, he got so much money in free play. I don’t know what the limit was, but it would take well over $1 million in coin-in to max the offer. He asked me to help him figure out the best way to tackle this.

We ruled out 9/6 Jacks or Better in the high limit room because it takes $25 coin-in to earn one TC and regular video poker only takes $10 to earn the same point. I called some players and discovered they have 9/6 Double Double Bonus (98.98%) in $5, $10, and $25 single-line games. That would be a much cheaper way to earn TCs even without the promo, and even more so with. This was his first trip there and if he played more than a million dollars on his first three-day visit, win or lose, there’s a good chance he’ll get nice offers down the road.

The property now offers 0.25% next day bounce back cash (NDB) on regular video poker (0.10% on 9/6 Jacks) and on Thursdays, for two hours, 10x NDB. He asked if he should make any strategy adjustments for that two-hour period.

“Absolutely,” I replied, “I don’t know for sure, but I suspect the casino will be very crowded during that two-hour period — especially in the high limit room. Unless there are nearby vacant machines with the same pay schedule. W-2Gs during those two hours are very expensive.”

While I’ve not played in that casino for more than a decade, I’ve heard getting W-2Gs paid there can take 15 minutes on regular days, and during some promotions, the slot people get so slammed it can take more than an hour. A two-hour juicy promotion is useless if you can’t get on a machine.

I suggested looking for hands where two plays are close in value, but the correct one can get a W-2G and the other one can’t — or at least it’s a lot more difficult to get one.

We used the advanced section of WinPoker to deal us hands where the difference between the best and the second-best play was 50 cents or less for a dollar player. That means $12.50 or less for a $25 player.

Hands such as A♠ J♥ T♠ 7♦ 4♠ popped up. Holding the bare ace is the best play by 3.3 cents for the five-coin dollar player. (The numbers I quote here will be for the dollar player. If you’re playing a $5, $10, or $25 machine, multiply the number by 5, 10, or 25 accordingly.) Holding AJ instead of the bare ace reduces your chance of getting a W-2G on this hand by about 50%. Is 3.3¢ a cheap price to pay for such a reduction? To my mind, yes.

Another qualifying hand was A♦ K♦ J♣ T♥ 8♠. Holding the AK gives you three chances out of 16,215 getting a W-2G. (On a $25 machine, the royal, four aces, and four kings each get you a handpay).  Holding AKJT eliminates that chance altogether. It costs you 4.3¢ to make such a play. It takes some courage to pull the trigger on this because while one of the possible jackpots was “only” four kings, with the other two W-2Gs you’re giving up the possibilities of receiving a royal flush and four aces — hands DDB players dream about. Still, getting those hands was taken into consideration when we computed it was a 4.3¢ difference in EV.

There are other hands to be considered. Once I give you the concept and tell you where to look, you can find them out for yourself if you’re interested.

In Harrah’s Cherokee, the loosest game is $5 NSU Deuces Wild. The “mystery” multiple NDB day goes for 24 hours, not just two. While they don’t make it clear what your multiplier is until you’ve already played, if you assume it’s 2x, you’ll be correct a very high percentage of the time. A 2x multiplier seems to pale in comparison with 10x elsewhere, but the base video poker games are better in Cherokee (if you’re willing and able to play $25 per hand), the base NDB rate is higher, and the promo goes for 24 hours rather than two.

The same “W-2Gs are expensive” philosophy holds during the multiple NDB days. When I get dealt a hand where a second-best play might reduce or eliminate the chances for a W-2G, the first thing I would do is check to see if there is a suitable nearby machine available. If one is, I’ll make the standard play and scoot over if the W-2G (four deuces or a royal flush in this game and denomination) comes home. But if no such machine is available, these are some of the hands I’d consider making the “second-best” play:

1. W45 — With a suited deuce four five, it’s a close play whether you play the deuce by itself or deuce four five — and the exact correct play is a bit complicated to figure out. For me during the promo if no backup machine is available, I’m holding all three cards every time.
2. A one-deuce perfect 4-card straight from W567-WQJT. It’s a close play whether you hold one card or four — and the exact rules are again a bit complicated — but during this promo with no backup machines available, I’m holding four cards every time.

A now-deceased good friend of mine made up “Annie’s Rule” on these hands.  Because she liked getting four deuces so much, she was willing to give up a few pennies in expected value to increase her chances of getting “the ducks.” I guess if she were playing this promotion and thought about it sufficiently, she would use “Bob’s Rule” which values not getting four deuces at times such as these.

3. KQ, KJ, or KT with at least two penalties. A straight penalty would be an unpaired card in the range of 9-A, while a flush penalty is a card of the same suit as the K in the range of 3-8. In these hands, without an available spare machine, I’m throwing everything away. It’s only 16,214 to 1 to hit a royal when drawing three cards, while it’s much longer when drawing five cards.  Your odds of drawing four deuces after when drawing five new cards are on in 35,673. Not zero, but not likely.

As before, there are other hands I’d play “second best but no jackpot” under these conditions, but now you understand the concept and know where to look, you can find them yourself.

These plays are not limited to NDB conditions. They are worth considering whenever W-2Gs are going to be paid slowly and there are no replacement machines nearby. At some casinos this can be 100% of the time on some machines!

Be sure the right conditions are there before you pull the trigger on one these plays. If jackpots are paid faster (at some casinos you can self pay) or there are ample additional suitable machines, it’s not smart to make any of these second-best plays.

It will be easy to criticize my presumptuousness in this blog because I’m going to compare myself, in a way, to Kris Kristofferson, an actor/singer/songwriter we lost last year. Kristofferson won numerous Country Music Association awards and Grammys, along with a Golden Globe award and an Academy Award nomination. He also received several other “minor” awards that far outshone anything I’ve received. While I’ve had a relatively successful career, Kristofferson’s has dwarfed mine. Plus, most women found him gorgeous, and I haven’t been cursed with that affliction.

With that said, I recently came across on YouTube a four-part series on Kristofferson, hosted by Steve Earle in 2008, and found many similarities between Kris’s life and mine. So, forgive my presumptuousness if you can and hear me out.

Kris wrote hundreds of songs, but four of his biggest hits were recorded in a few months in the early 70s — “Sunday Morning Coming Down,” recorded by Johnny Cash, “For the Good Times,” recorded by Ray Price, “Me and Bobby McGee,” first recorded by Roger Miller but Janis Joplin posthumously made it a huge success, and “Help Me Make it Through the Night,” originally released by Sammi Smith and later by more than 400 other artists. While Kris lived more than a half-century more, having success in a variety of ways, that brief early-70s period gave him enough continued royalties that he didn’t have to work any longer if he didn’t want to.

For me, my most successful moment was a six-month period in 2000-2001 when I was able to net more than $1 million. I chronicled this run in my “Million Dollar Video Poker” autobiography. While the money was enough for me to retire, if I wanted, it gave my career the boost of credibility. I was essentially the same player before and after the million-dollar experience, but many players took winning that much as a sign I was very knowledgeable. And they bought my products.

While Kris’s run was a lot more lucrative than mine, probably the biggest difference between the runs was the percentage of luck versus the percentage of skill. While both of us had a healthy dose of both skill and luck, luck is a much bigger factor in gambling success than it is in writing four critically acclaimed and commercially successful songs back-to-back-to-back-to-back.
During and after Kris’s success in the 70s, drinking, drugs, and womanizing cost him his marriage to Rita Coolidge. My closest parallel to that also happened in the 70s — which was well before I moved to Vegas and experienced gambling success. While I was never a heavy drinker, and dabbling with marijuana was never a major hobby, there was a period of almost ten years when I couldn’t be trusted to be a faithful boyfriend/husband. I probably would have been a worse philanderer had it been easier. I never had groupies. I was okay looking, but women didn’t fall over themselves vying for my attentions. I’ve heard it said that a man is only as faithful as his opportunities. While there is some truth to that, strength of character can overcome these opportunities. For about a decade, I didn’t have that strength.

Kris seemed to overcome many of his demons with a religious conversion and an eye-opening movie role. In the 1976 version of “A Star is Born,” Kristofferson played opposite Barbra Streisand as an alcoholic self-destructive rock and roll star and songwriter. Over the course of the movie, Kristofferson gets more and more destructive and eventually kills himself while driving a car recklessly. Kris must have seen the movie as semi-autobiographical and become aware that if he didn’t change his ways, he too would likely face an early demise. At about the same time, Kris converted to Christianity and wrote the song “Why me?” (Sometimes called “Why Me, Lord?” when sung by other artists.) This song was his only number one record as a solo artist.

For me, I never starred in a movie, nor did I have a religious experience to straighten me out. I took the Erhard Seminars Training (EST) in 1980 — with positive results. The training is loosely based on Zen principles. It has generated substantial criticism, but for me it was the single-most important event on my journey towards being a responsible human being. I have had no contact with the organization for more than 40 years, which has morphed a few times but still exists, but it remains an important part of who I am.

When Kristofferson’s musical career was floundering in the mid-1980s, he teamed up with Willie Nelson, Waylon Jennings, and Johnny Cash and formed “The Highwayman.” These four artists, called outlaws by some, were as big as you get in country music. At the time, being less aware of Kristofferson’s achievements than I am now, I was surprised when he was included in the group, rather than, perhaps, Merle Haggard. While the group sang hits from each of them, about 40% of those songs were written by Kris. That’s why he was in the group. 

For me, my late-in-life partnership was the “Gambling with an Edge” podcast, especially when my co-host was Richard Munchkin. Prior to that show, I’d been a magnet for Internet criticism. People who did not know me regularly posted negative things, often untrue, about me. When the show became a hit because of the people we interviewed, much of that criticism stopped. For that, I am grateful.

Finally, both Kris and I eventually got marriage right. His third wife, Lisa, bore him five children and stuck by him 40 years until his death in 2024. By all accounts, they were happy. For me, I’ve had more than three wives. Bonnie came to me late in life. We recently celebrated our 11^th anniversary — and both of us expect it to last for the duration.

So many of the good-and-bad events of my life parallel those of Kris — and I find that I personally respond to his lyrics. Maybe you can’t relate to “Well I woke up Sunday morning with no way to hold my head that didn’t hurt,” but I can. My favorite Kristofferson song, “Jody and the Kid,” was never a commercial success. But look it up on YouTube. You’ll be glad you did.