Author: Bob Dancer

Posted on by — 1 Comment

Does Playing Multiple Lines to Reduce Variance Work in Slots?

Bob Dancer

I wrote a blogpost a few weeks ago saying that playing Ten Play has less variance than Five Play which has less variance than Triple Play which has less variance than single-line play, assuming you’re playing the same total bet. A comment was posted, unanswered by others, which asked: “Would this apply to all games of chance, including slots?”

My answer is that slots generally do not have the same structure as the Triple Play family of games. And by the Triple Play structure, I mean all lines have the same starting position after the deal. I certainly haven’t studied all varieties of slot machines, so maybe . . .

In the accumulative type of slots that I play, every combination of denomination and number of coins bet is in a different position except immediately after the machine is installed or the machine is reset. In a hypothetical Yellow Bob machine, let’s say they have a Mini meter, a Minor meter, and a Major meter. 

At any given point, the meters from bottom to top, might be 7-10-8 for 1¢ 100 coins; 12-19-9 for 1¢ 200 coins; and 15-10-12 for 1¢ 500 coins, etc. Each of these have a different EV. Playing the 100-coin version in this case would be a worse bet than the others simply because the meters are lower, not because you’re betting fewer coins. Depending on how frequently the jackpots come about, and how much each spin is worth on average when it does hit, either the $2 or the $5 game could be the better play. It’s possible that none of these have an EV exceeding 100%.

Let’s say the same machine also has games for 2¢, 5¢, and 10¢ — each having three different “number of coins.” That’s 12 separate games you have to check. Any of them might be the best play right now. Or, most often, none of them.

Some manufacturers give you a higher return for higher denominations. That is, maybe the 1¢ and 2¢ games, in all three “number of coins” variations, have an overall return of 90% and the 5¢ and 10¢ versions have an overall return of 92%. You either have to have inside information on the RTPs (return to players), or capture a lot of data to know if this is true.

This would seem to imply that the higher denominations are a better bet, but that’s not necessarily the case. Assume “average” meter readings, betting $5 at a 90% rate means you’re losing 50¢ per pull on average. Betting $50 at a 92% rate (still assuming average meter readings), means you’re losing $4 per pull.

One older game, called Clover Link Xtreme, has games in the four denominations we’ve discussed. You can have penny games with 500 coins (for a $5 bet), a nickel game with 100 coins bet (for the same $5 bet) and a dime game with 50 coins (again for the same $5 bet). These three separate games will all become positive at the same time. In this case, you want to be playing the dime game because hitting the Mini on the penny game is worth $10 while hitting the Mini on the dime game is worth $100. This is the only game I know that’s like this, but, again, I certainly don’t know all the games.

On slots that don’t accumulate, playing the higher denominations may have a better percentage return. So, if you’re playing until you reach a specific goal, say 1,000 tier credits, you may lose less on average if you play it on higher denominations — if this is a machine where the larger denominations yield a higher percentage. This will be a higher EV, but also higher variance. The amount you bet each hand is a key part of the variance calculation.

Keep in mind, though, that these slots rarely return any percentage close to what you can get playing video poker. Even bad video poker games return more than most slot machines. If you have the knowledge to know which video poker machines to play, and know how to play them reasonably well, that’s a much better bet than most slot machines. If you know how to identify advantage slots and can find them in a positive state, slots can certainly be more lucrative than video poker. But slot knowledge is hard to come by, and you’ll have lots of competition. There is some information in Michael Shackleford’s latest version of Gambling 102, and a more comprehensive book about slots is in the works at Huntington Press. I don’t know when it will be released.

Posted on by — 4 Comments

A Visit to New Orleans

Bob Dancer

Through the years, I’ve been to Harrah’s New Orleans twenty times or more. They used to have dollar Triple Play, Five Play, and Ten Play NSU Deuces Wild, and if you played enough, you got nice mailers including food, free play, and airfare. The casino was within walking distance to the French Quarter and the Mississippi River, and it was an enjoyable city to visit. They had a Diamond Lounge where if you planned it right, you could easily consume a high proportion of your calories for free every day — and the menu varied from day to day.

So, a surprising number of Las Vegas video poker players regularly made the 2,000-mile journey to the Crescent City. Players from all over the country came as well.

 Almost a decade ago, the NSU games were removed. The loosest remaining video poker I knew about (other than 9/6 Jacks or Better at $150 a hand, or more) was what I called Pseudo NSU, and others called Airport Deuces — among many other names. It’s a 98.9% game that might be acceptable with the right promotion and slot club. Although occasionally I would go for a Seven Stars trip, the tighter games precluded me from attending regularly.

This summer, however, Bonnie and I both received too-good-to-pass-up mailers — so we didn’t. These offers were presumably based on our play at Harrah’s Cherokee — which is also in the Southeastern part of the country. In late September we booked a total of four days — two in my name, two in hers — into the hotel — immediately before a stay in Cherokee. New Orleans is, more or less, on the way to North Carolina from Las Vegas.

Although the hotel is still called Harrah’s New Orleans, the casino has become Caesars New Orleans. There is a new Caesars Hotel that will open in a few months that is slightly smaller than the existing Harrah’s Hotel (350 rooms compared to 400), with 50 of those rooms branded Nobu Hotel, which is a higher-end experience. I was told that the Harrah’s Hotel will be refurbished, possibly renamed, and will continue to be part of the casino-hotel complex there.

The casino itself was barely recognizable to me. Brand new carpet featuring Julius Caesar’s head over and over again covered the casino. When we were there, we saw plenty of empty floor space that will presumably be filled over time with slot machines. The buffet is gone, and a food court area now takes the place of where I think they used to have a theater. 

When I was there previously, I was not a slot player. Today, there are a number of good machines that are sometimes positive, and presumably more to come. Percentagewise, there are far fewer video poker machines than there used to be, although it’s possible that ratio will change when the additional machines are installed. While I didn’t do an exhaustive search, I did see some machines with pseudo NSU on them — which isn’t what it used to be but decent enough by today’s standards. 

Using your Reward Credits (RCs) for dining is a bit tricky. Your RCs are redeemed at one-for-one at the Steakhouse, Manning’s, and the food court. Most other restaurants are redeemed at two-for–one, except Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse is redeemed at three-for-one. This means a $100 check at Ruth’s Chris will cost you $300 in RCs.

There are a number of restaurants throughout the city where you can eat using RCs, at the two-for-one rate, only you have to redeem your RCs first and get a voucher. If your voucher isn’t big enough, you have to use cash or credit card to pay the rest. If your voucher is too big, you forfeit what you didn’t use.

The French Quarter retains its charm. One of my “go-to” stops every trip has been to attend an hour-long concert at Preservation Hall — a venue dedicated to playing New Orleans jazz music in its various forms. Preservation Hall itself is closed now for refurbishing, to add air conditioning among other things, but the Preservation Hall concerts still exist at the Toulouse Theatre, a few blocks away. 

There is a United States National Park on Decatur Street in the French Quarter. Every day that they were open, they used to have tours of the French Quarter at 10 a.m. I’ve been on several of them over the years — and each one was slightly different. They no longer have those, but they have free daily ranger talks about the history of New Orleans music — with each ranger giving his/her own take on it. We caught two of those — one from a lady using a piano to describe things and the second from an upright bass player who used that instrument in his talk. It was a surprise to me that the park rangers were experts on New Orleans Jazz. I thought park rangers were generally out-doorsy sorts who knew about forests and animals. But these folks know their music! The talks were enjoyable, informative, and free. 

Bonnie insisted on one snack consisting of beignets and chicory coffee. “The” place to have these snacks is Café Du Monde. This time, however, Café Beignet had no line, so we stopped there instead. Even after dusting off all of the powdered sugar that I could get off of one of these donuts, just being there caused me to ingest killer amounts of second-hand sugar. I ate one powder-free donut with a small chicory coffee to keep the peace. I’m grateful Bonnie didn’t want to go there more than once.

We’ll return to this casino — possibly just before or after a Harrah’s Cherokee trip — again. New Orleans is a unique place to visit — and one of our favorites. In my opinion, we stayed away too long.

Posted on by — 6 Comments

Why is the Variance of Multi-line Play Less than the Variance of Single-Line Play?

Bob Dancer

I’ve known for years that Triple Play reduces the variance of video poker. And Five Play, Ten Play, Fifty Play, and Hundred Play even more so. When most of us had the software Video Poker for Winners, the variance for Triple Play and Five Play and Ten Play were listed. So, this information was readily available. Unfortunately, that software doesn’t work on modern machines, and it’s not going to be updated. So most of us no longer have access to this source of information.

Saying dollar Ten Play has a lower variance than the single-line version of the same game is simply not correct. The Ten Play version, at $50 per play, has a considerably higher variance than the single-line version at $5 per play. But variance-per-coin-bet is a different story. Dollar Ten Play and $10 single play both require $50 to play. Between these two games, the Ten Play version has a much lower variance.

I’ve had some theories as to why this is true, but my major certainty on this matter came from looking at the software, which I trusted, rather than understanding the actual math itself.

Recently, however, I attended a lecture by Dr. Stewart N. Ethier, Professor Emeritus at the department of mathematics at the University of Utah, which addressed this subject. Although Ethier’s presentation was far more mathematical than I can usefully present to a general audience, I understand his point well enough so I can simplify it for my readers. If you wish to see the original paper, which he released simultaneously with the lecture, you may view it at //arxiv.org/abs/2409.03607.

The key way of looking at it that Ethier presented is one that seems obvious once it’s pointed out, but I, for one, never noticed it. The variance of a video poker hand is the sum of two components; namely the variance of the deal and the variance of the draw, which I will refer to as var (total) = var (deal) + var (draw).

So far, so good, Captain Obvious. What does this buy us?

What it buys us is that the variance of the draw is MUCH larger than the variance of the deal. For example, the variance of 9/6 Jacks or Better is about 19.5, but this is the sum of the variance of the deal (about 2) and the variance of the draw (about 17.5). One of the major components of the variance is the frequency of hitting the royal flush, which is about 1/40,000 for the draw versus 1/650,000 for the deal.

The variance for Triple Play is the variance of the deal, plus the variance of the draw, divided by 3. For Five Play we divide by 5. For Hundred Play we divide by 100. Notice we’re dividing the larger of the components of the variance.

Although Ethier provides quite a few decimal places in his paper (which you can look at if you wish), these are the variance numbers for 9/6 Jacks or Better

Single Line – 19.5

Triple Play – 7.82

Five Play – 5.48

Ten Play – 3.72

Fifty Play – 2.32

Hundred Play – 2.15

The primary reason for preferring lower variance is the preservation of bankroll. That is, playing multi-line versions of the same game reduces your risk of ruin — i.e., your chance of going broke. It’s frequently not possible to have a choice between multi-line games and single-line games with the same pay schedule. But when it is possible, the safer play is to go with the multi-line game.

“Safer” isn’t everyone’s choice. Higher variance can be called “more fun,” and a number of players gamble for fun. I gamble for longevity and profit, and bankroll preservation is a primary concern.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

Knowing More Than One Video Poker Game

Bob Dancer

Presumably, the vast majority of my readers have a favorite video poker game. Or at least a “go to” video poker game that they play the most. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t spend their time reading a blog behind a paywall which primarily addresses video poker.

The reasons for knowing more than one game are multi-fold. In no particular order:

  1. Casinos change their inventory of games periodically. Always have. Always will. If your favorite game goes away, you’ll be in a lot better position to keep playing video poker if you have a back-up game.
  1. The conditions on the game you usually play might be less than ideal. There might be smokers, or sticky buttons, or chatterboxes, or something else that you’d rather avoid. If you only know one game, it’s sometimes a matter of putting up with bad conditions or going home.
  1. There are sometimes more players desiring a particular game than there are machines. This is especially true if you’re playing the loosest game in the house and there’s a special event going on bringing in more players than usual.
  1. Promotions affect games differently. If it’s some sort kind of a 4-of-a-kind promotion, deuces wild variants do not perform as well as games without wild cards.
  1. Different casinos have different game mixes. While to some degree “all casinos are the same,” they really aren’t. Each has its own restaurants, for example, and you probably prefer some more than others — plus however good any particular restaurant is, variety is nice. Some casinos include movie theaters, bowling, childcare, shuttles to get you there, or perhaps are nearer to shopping. If you have one or more travel companions when you go to casinos, some of these things might be important to whomever you’re traveling with.
  1. The more games you know and practice, the more you stay mentally sharp at playing the game. I’m a believer that to keep your brain sharp, you have to use it. Regularly. I’m not an expert in brain health, but I’ve heard that adage repeated enough that it’s gospel to me. While at age 77 my brain is not as sharp as it was when I was younger, I attribute the sharpness that remains to the regular use to which I put it.
  1. Video poker is a very repetitious game. You’re dealt two pair. You hold two pair. For many people, playing the same repetitious game over and over again gets boring. 
  1. Your financial conditions might change, and not all pay schedules are available in all denominations.
  1. There might be better games on Triple Play or some other format you prefer more than single line games.
  1. You might prefer slant top machines to uprights. Or maybe adjustable chairs. Or distance from the sound effects of a particularly obnoxious slot machine.
  2. Playing multiple games allows you to meet more people. While a lot of us, including me, prefer to play without chatting, a valuable source of information about games and/or promotions at the current casino and others will be your fellow players. Just as in “real life,” the more networking you do the more you’ll succeed.
Posted on by — 4 Comments

Staying in the Groove

Bob Dancer

I’ve been playing NSU Deuces Wild for more than 20 years. It’s a simple game to play at the 99% accuracy level. It’s easier than most other video poker games to play at the 99.9% accuracy level. But it’s virtually impossible to play 100% accurately. The appendices to the Dancer/Daily Winners Guide to NSU Deuces Wild contain hundreds of exceptions to the basic strategy. Even the basic strategy has some real toughies in it. 

Consider the following nine pairs of hands. In none of the pairs are the two hands played identically. Do you know which is which? As difficult as this test is, it is much simpler when you have the clue that the two hands are played differently, than it is when you face any of these while playing. 

As is my custom, a W stands for a deuce. In the answers, bold italics means the cards are suited with each other. 

Test: 

  1. W 4♠ 5♠ K♠ T♥ versus W 4♠ 5♠ K♠ J♥
  1. W 4♥ 5♥ Q♥ K♣ versus W 4♥ 5♥ Q♥ J♣
  1. W 6♦ 7♣ 8♥ K♥ versus W 6♦ 7♣ 8♥ K♠
  1. W 4♣ 5♣ 3♥ J♦ versus W 4♣ 5♣ 3♥ Q♦
  1.  K♦ T♦ 6♦ A♠ 9♥ versus K♦ T♦ 6♦ A♠ 9♠ 
  1. K♠ T♠ 5♠ A♦ 3♦ versus K♠ T♠ 5♠ Q♦ 3♦
  1. 8♥ 9♥ Q♠ A♣ 4♣ versus 8♥ 9♥ Q♠ A♣ 3♣
  1. A♣ T♣ 9♥ 7♠ 5♦ versus A♣ T♣ 9♥ 7♠ 5♠
  1. W A♦ K♦ T♠ 8♠ versus W A♦ K♦ J♠ 9♠

Answers:

  1. W45 and W
  2. W and W45
  3. W and W678
  4. W45 and W
  5. KT and draw 5
  6. KT and draw 5
  7. 89 and draw 5
  8. AT and draw 5
  9. WT8 and WAK

Don’t fret too much if you didn’t score well. The test was my way of supporting my statement that it was virtually impossible to play this game perfectly. Each of these nine examples have a lot of similar hands to learn. Learning these particular 18 hands still leaves you with several hundred different tough hands to struggle with.

As it happens, until some casinos change their inventory, I’ll be playing NSU Deuces Wild more, dollar-wise, than all the other video poker games I play. So even though each of these distinctions are worth fractions of a penny if you play for quarters, I’m playing enough hands for large enough stakes that it makes sense, to me anyway, if I spend time mastering them.

I could have an exact list of hands in a PDF that I could carry with me on my smart phone. In addition to it being illegal in Nevada and some other states to use cell phones to help you make gambling decisions in a casino, I find this tedious. I’m playing games where I have the advantage, everything considered, and taking 15 seconds to make sure I have the correct play by a tenth of a penny makes no financial sense.

It may surprise you, but I would not have aced the test I presented today. In question 5, I would have drawn five new cards both times, in question 6 I would have held KT both times, and in question 7, I would have drawn five new cards both times. The other six hands I would have aced.

So, what gives? Why would I play these hands incorrectly?

I have worked out a strategy that is “good enough.” I have the Level 4 strategy completely memorized, and for the appendix material, I use the shortcuts provided there. These shortcuts are relatively easy to memorize and get me close enough. I don’t have the tools to accurately measure how accurate my “simplified” strategy is, but I suspect it’s well over 99.99% of what is possible. And I can play it relatively fast.

It’s a far bigger risk to make mistakes by oversight. I know the right play, but maybe I don’t see it, or maybe I get momentarily confused. This happens to me more as a senior citizen than it did a few decades ago.

Posted on by — 1 Comment

Sometimes You Have to Guesstimate

Bob Dancer

The big key to winning at video poker and other gambling games is to only play when you have an advantage. Sometimes, though, it’s hard to know whether you have the advantage or not — or even how to measure that advantage.

Casino drawings provide one example. The casino agrees to give away such and such prizes. If you knew how many tickets were going to be in the drum, how many tickets you were going to end up having, and the value of the prizes, you could figure out what your EV was in the drawing. Factoring in how much coin-in it cost you to earn that many tickets and you can figure out your percentage return. Even if you could calculate it at 0.2%, it comes with a high variance. Usually, you don’t get drawn. Occasionally you do.

But you don’t usually know how many tickets are going to be in the drum, nor the exact number of tickets you’re going to end up with. And sometimes you don’t even know how much the prize is worth. Cash or free play is pretty straightforward. But what about if the prize is a car? Sometimes there’s a cash option, at 75% or 80% of retail, but not always. It might be a specific vehicle, or it may be a voucher for $25,000 (or any other amount) at such and such dealership.

What if it’s a Chevrolet dealership and you hate Chevies? Or if it’s a Toyota dealership and you practice a “Buying American” philosophy? Hard to put a number on these things.

What about comps? Some casinos offer you a certain amount of comp dollars, but these are hard to value as well. There are usually a limited number of outlets at which you can spend your comp dollars. If you get $100 to spend at the gift shop, if there is nothing there you want or what is there is greatly overpriced compared to what you can buy it for elsewhere, that comp is hardly worth $100.

You may earn enough comps to eat at one of the gourmet rooms, but what if this isn’t the kind of food you enjoy or is on your diet? Even if it is food you enjoy, if you have $200 to spend (eat it or lose it), you’ll probably use most of it up even if your typical dinner costs far less than that. You might decide a $40 tip is warranted on this meal while your typical dinner with tip might be $50. Is this comp worth $200 or $10?

The South Point casino regularly runs promotions where you play a certain amount and earn one or more spins where each spin is worth between $5 and $100. (The exact rules vary each time, but are often similar to this.) If you don’t know how much average spin is, how are you going to put a value on the promotion?

For me, since I play approximately a breakeven game at the South Point (99.7%+ games and a 0.3% slot club) before the promotion and mailers, any additional free play is welcome, but not needed to justify playing. I’ll come in on the days you can get the spins (if I’m in town) and collect the extra money, but the promotions aren’t sufficient for me to play extra. Whereas unlimited double points just might be.

I do not put a value on room comps, although I definitely use them when out of town. If I weren’t there, I wouldn’t need a room, and I can’t “cash in” the value of the room. (Or, rather, I don’t. Years ago, I sometimes sold room nights, but not anymore.) A suite is appreciated over a regular room, but if the game isn’t more than 100% without the suite, I stay away.

In Vegas and many other cities, there are professional sports teams and some casinos offer you tickets to the events — often premium seats with amenities. Were I someone who would buy tickets to these events, this is a comp worth money and I would conceivably play a slightly-under 100% game to score the tickets. Since I basically have a “I’ll take the tickets if they are offered, but I wouldn’t go out and buy them” attitude, I don’t factor this into whether a game is playable.

Sometimes there is a jewelry or some other giveaway that attracts Bonnie’s eye. I’ll play extra for that. I don’t put an exact value on “keeping Bonnie happy,” but it is definitely something worth investing in. So I do.

Posted on by — 2 Comments

End of an Era

Bob Dancer

Bonnie and I regularly fly to Reno to play at Eldorado — which, along with Silver Legacy and Circus Circus, are called the ROW. While the casinos physically remain separate, they are connected on the second level by walkways passing over the streets that run between the casinos. All three ROW casinos run the same promotions, use the same slot tickets, are considered “one place,” and are part of the Caesars Rewards system.

The game we’ve been playing at Eldorado has been $10 Triple Bonus Poker Plus (TBPP). Although this game has cleaned my clock in 2024, I hit three royals in 45 days in 2023, and overall, my score has been reasonably close to expectations. The game has a variance very similar to Double Double Bonus, and as players of that game know, that game leads to heaven or hell results. Within the past year, they also removed $1 and $5 Super Aces Bonus (SAB) poker, which has a slightly higher return and a much higher variance than TBPP.

Without going into great detail about their promotions, suffice it to say that Bonnie and I regularly got on an airplane from Las Vegas to go play there.

Although the next loosest game is NSU Deuces Wild, I don’t believe the casino removed SAB and TBPP in order to have a tighter floor. They removed the games because those particular games were only found on decades-old IGT machines. The casino decided, correctly, I believe, that they needed to upgrade their floor with newer machines. For whatever reason, IGT has decided not to have those particular pay schedules on their newer machines.

Under the video poker management at IGT, many high paying video poker games have been removed from their inventory. And when new games are created, IGT has, at times, refused to release them with pay schedules looser than 99%. At more than one Global Gaming Expo trade show, the manager of IGT video poker told me he believes that very few, if any, slot directors mind that the games are tighter now. I’ve responded to him, fruitlessly, that some casinos choose to offer loose games some of the time. IGT’s refusal to supply those games is a slap in the face to players. I’m sure he at least listened to me, but then decided not to do as I requested.

So the loosest high limit Eldorado machines are a bit tighter than they used to be. This doesn’t affect many people, but it does affect Bonnie and me. However, we’ll still go and play there. While not as good as it used to be, that casino still offers a good enough “game plus promotions” combination for us to get on an airplane to go play it. 

Comparing a game to what used to be and isn’t coming back is a fool’s game. You need to compare a game to games currently found elsewhere. And by that criterion, Reno here we come!

Posted on by — Leave a comment

Don’t Count It Twice!

Bob Dancer

At least two casinos in the Caesars system (in Cherokee, NC and Danville, VA — possibly others) offer next day bounce back for your slot and video poker play. I have not been to Danville, but I can describe the promotion in Cherokee.

Video poker players receive 0.75% next day bounce back while slot players receive double that. At least some “unprofitable” players receive a smaller percentage. To make it work for the casino, mailers and other offers have been reduced. Still, some of the mailer offers (spa credit, for example) are useless to some players, while “extra” free play is welcomed by all. If you want to go to the spa and no longer get as much spa credit, use the money derived from the next day free play and use it at the spa.

You earn your free play from 6 a.m. to 6 a.m., and it’s put on your card at noon. It’s good for 90 days. There are a few other “fine points” to the promotion, so if you go to one of these casinos, make sure you read the rules.

There’s always the question of when do you count this extra free play? Do you count it when you earn it or when you redeem it? While either methodology is defensible, personally, I count it when I redeem. 

What I mean is I do most of my play there on $5 deuces wild. At the outset of my trip, I take a marker and get a supply of $2,500 TITO tickets. My score generally goes up and down, mostly down, until I hit four deuces ($5,000) or a royal ($20,000) when I get paid in tickets. 

As I play, I put in these tickets and keep track of how many. Sometime after noon, I download the free play I’ve earned, but I don’t record that as money inserted. At the end of the day, I record my net win or loss. If I had $500 in free play (meaning I played about $67,000 coin-in the previous day), that money will end up as increasing my win or reducing my loss for the day. And, legally, this free play is as taxable as the results from playing the game.

The machines I play on are $1, $2, and $5 denominations, where the return on the game is highest on the $5 games. While I was playing a $5 game one day, I was next to a player playing $1 7-5 Bonus Poker. I heard him recount his score to his wife.

He said, “I started with $1,000 of my own money, and had $50 in free play from yesterday’s play which I downloaded. I earned 1,000 Tier Credits ($10,000 coin-in), so I’ll get another $75 tomorrow. Since I cashed out for $950, I really made $25 today. Let’s celebrate at the bar!”

This player was counting his free play twice in his mind. He counted yesterday’s $50 in free play and today’s $75 in the same session. Tomorrow, he’ll count today’s $75 again. It’s a mind game. The thing is, he only gets the $75 once.

Relatively few of you will play at these particular casinos, but this same principle happens at other casinos as well. In August, South Point is offering free spins Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, where you will earn free play up to $100, for playing $500 in slots or $1,500 in video poker. 

The day I’m writing this, playing on both Bonnie’s and my card, I earned a total of $140 in free play that’s redeemable until the end of the month. I could redeem it immediately, but there’s no need. I’ll be back in two days to play the promotion again and use the $140 as “ammunition” for my play next time. My results of that will then be recorded.

As of today, I don’t know the exact ending date for redeeming this promo. I’ll earn some free play on August 30, and am not planning on playing again until Tuesday, September 3, which is usually when my regular Tuesday-Thursday free play will be available (Sometimes there’s a different pickup schedule but I won’t know that until I receive the September mailer.) I’ll check the rules before then to see if the free play from the August spins will still be on my card when I pick up my first September free play. If the free play will still be there then, I’ll wait. If not, I’ll redeem it on August 30.

Another local casino in Vegas (Four Queens/Binion’s, which use the same card) gives you $160 for earning 1,200 points during the month. They regularly have variations of this promotion where you earn some amount of free play, comps, and/or gifts of some sort. I count the money when I redeem it.

Taxes aside, even if you’re playing recreationally, it’s good to know how you are doing. Fooling yourself into thinking you’re winning more (or losing less) by counting this kind of promotion twice gives you an erroneous picture of the profit or cost of your gambling.

At the same time, this is a clever way for a casino to run a promotion. Even when the rules of the promotion are perfectly clear, this makes it easy for players to think they’re getting more than they actually are.

Posted on by — Leave a comment

More About Airport Slots

Bob Dancer

A few weeks ago, I wrote about slot players (including me, occasionally) “hustling” at Harry Reid International Airport and the organization that runs those slots doing what it could to remove these hustlers. I received a few comments that didn’t get posted, and I want to address those now.

One comment was from someone whose contacts among knowledgeable people in the gambling world are as good as anyone’s. I’m not naming him. Had he wanted to be identified, he could have figured out how to post the comment so that everybody could see he sent it. He wrote:

I am told that it is the employees who are playing these slots so that they are trying to intimidate players off them to get them for themselves. I’ve also heard a big team is paying them off, but I think it is more the former.

My personal contact was with the managers of the airport slots. One of them was a former shift slot manager at the South Point, and since Michael Gaughan owns both the South Point and MJG Airport Slots, this strikes me as a reasonable, believable promotion for him. This man had worked for Gaughan for a couple of decades.

I asked him if identifying “advantage” players and restricting them was company policy or just some rogue employees doing their own thing for their own purposes. He was very clear that it was company policy. I’ve known him for years and watched him closely as he answered. I believe he was telling me the truth. If my expert friend is correct, I got conned. You can draw your own conclusions.

Another player wrote words to the effect of:

If the advantage players keep going after certain brands of slot machines, the obvious solution is to remove those machines so there’s nothing to attract these players.

Perhaps obvious to you, but to me this is clearly the wrong approach. Many of the machines the pros like are also very popular with the recreational players. If the airport removed these slots, whatever machines they replaced them with would not be as popular — and hence, not as profitable.

One thing not obvious to some of my readers is the difference in the way a casino profits between video poker and slots. 

In video poker, if only expert players play the machines, the house makes a lot less money — or they may even lose, depending on the pay schedule, slot club, and promotions. Whether a casino profits or not can depend on removing expert players. 

In slots, however, the house makes the same percentage whether the game is played by pros or novices. The competition is not between players and the house, but just among the players themselves.

So, if they’re making the same percentage, why do some casinos run off advantage players? Let’s say a casino’s slots average a 94% return. If pros pick off the games when they are positive, regular players are playing games averaging maybe 89%. Occasional players can’t tell the difference, but frequent players get a sense that their money doesn’t last as long at this particular casino. When the game returns that little to the players, many quit. 

If the casino removes the knowledgeable players, the average player gets a 92% return or higher. These players enjoy themselves more and play more. The casino holds more money because there are more coins played. Casinos depend on repeat customers — especially casinos with a lot of competition. 

The airport is different in several ways. While at the airport, there is essentially no competition from casinos. If someone wants to play slots, he/she has to play whatever is offered by the airport. You can bet that these slots are tighter than they are at most of the casinos in Vegas.

A related factor is that the customer base of players at the airport is a lot more diverse than the players inside the casinos. Many people inside the airport are not casino patrons. Their flight between, say, Fresno and Phoenix, makes a layover in Las Vegas. These customers are not in town to gamble — but since they have an hour to kill between flight legs, why not? Such players might not be able to differentiate between tight and loose slots. You have to be a somewhat frequent player to know this.

This means the organizers of the airport slots have less incentive to kick out pros than regular casinos do. So why do they do it?

My guess is that it’s in the DNA of the managers that having an environment that supported professional gamblers was a bad thing for them — simply because it was a bad thing back when they worked for regular casinos. So they continue to do it.

Posted on by — 1 Comment

Still More About Slots

Bob Dancer

Last week I wrote about the hypothetical “Green Bob” machines. Today I’m going to talk about how to obtain some of the numbers we assumed last week. You should probably read that article before trying to make sense out of this one.

In general, there are three sources of information about these slot machines — par sheets, information from others, and figuring it out yourself.

  1. Par sheets.

A par sheet gives a lot of information about the game. These are designed to be useful to employees in slot departments. Probably more than 10,000 people have access to par sheets. I am not one of them.

Under certain circumstances, people with access to par sheets will share them with others. I have made a few unsuccessful attempts over the years at getting a slot director to provide par sheets to me. How to be successful at this is not something I can speak about from my own experience.

  1. Learning from others

I got started by having a “guru” I trusted give me some useful information. There are X feeds and Internet sites dedicated to this. Over time, my first guru stopped telling me things and I found a second. I “bartered” by sharing video poker information for slot information — but bartering can take many forms.

Much of the information online is not very good. Over time you’ll need to figure out the sources you can trust and the sources you can’t. I see no possibility that bobdancer.com will ever become a major source of slot machine information.

  1. Figuring it out yourself

On the Green Bob machine, the information you need is: How long does it take, on average, for each meter to go off, and how much, on average, is each extra spin on each meter worth. You also need the RTP (return to player) — which is to say you need to know whether this game returns 88% overall, 92%, or whatever. 

We’ll cover the RTP first. Assuming you don’t have access to the par sheet, this information is usually in the data displayed when the slot machine is open. There is a LOT of information there, but the RTP is near the top. When the door is open, read what’s there. Sometimes slot employees will tell you to step away, but usually they don’t care. Sometimes you can get them to open up a machine for some reason, perhaps claiming that you’re not sure, but you think the bill acceptor didn’t record the last $100 bill you entered. 

In the Green Bob machine, you also need to know how long it takes each of the three meters to go off. You can do your counting while you are playing or somebody else is playing. So, each spin will add to each of the three counts. Eventually one of them will go off. You’ll record that number and start counting over again. The more cycles you have the better.

We don’t have a Mega meter on this particular machine — but these typically have a cycle of 50,000 or more — approximately the same as a royal flush. You’re never going to get an accurate count for enough cycles to get a close estimate on the cycle. When figuring out whether I’m going to play a game with a Mega meter, I ignore that meter. One will go off periodically and that day will be a winner, but I always assume that that day won’t be today.

There are games where the top meter tops out at 99 spins. I’ve heard pros say things like 99 on the top meter might or might not be a play. It could take you 12 hours of play to find out. 

Once you get a cycle for each meter, you need to figure out how much each spin pays. I collect by both denomination and number of coins — so a penny game betting 500 coins would be recorded differently than a dime game betting 50 coins. While both games require $5 per spin, it’s very possible that the latter game is a bit looser. As the denomination increases, some manufacturers, not all, give the player a slightly better game.

After 30 or more data points for each number of coins/denomination combination, you can get a fairly reliable average of how much each spin is worth. But there will always be variance. Sometimes 25 spins for a certain bet size will return $30 and sometimes it will return $800. You’ll never know how much it will return this time until you play it.

From here, you need to put all the numbers together to figure out how much it will cost to get a Minor meter currently at xx to go off and how much it will return once it does go off. These are average amounts. Sometimes the machine will give more. Sometimes it will give less.

That is basically how it’s done. It’s hard work and once you have the numbers, you’re competing with many other players who have their own numbers — however obtained — sometimes by guessing. There’s a lot of walking around checking machines. If you’re looking for an easy way to get rich quick, this isn’t it.